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Deloitte Novice Hurdle 2012

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  • #20948
    bozlikebozlike
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1678

    Interesting one this, and often a key indication as to which way both the Supreme Novice and Neptune Novice Hurdles will go the following month.

    I found it interesting to see Nicky Henderson has supplemented Captain Conan for this. I wouldn’t have fancied him for it myself, given the fact it’s been proclaimed already that he’ll come to himself more next year when he starts over fences. He did run a good debut though, and beat a decent type in Colour Squadron, although he didn’t appear to be at his best that day.

    The two I like for this are Cash And Go and Sous Les Cieux. Last time these two met Cash And Go came out on top at the same course. This was, however, on better ground than is expected on Sunday, and over 2 furlongs shorter, and I’m sure Sundays conditions will suit Mullins’ horse better.

    I fancy the classy Sous Les Cieux to come out on top, followed home by Cash And Go, who himself seems a gritty enough type get home in 2nd, and more importantly for the future, get up the Cheltenham hill :wink:

    With Cheltenham just a month away, if I were to be brave and stick my neck out now, I’d fancy these to win the Neptune and Supreme respectively.

    @TomBarkley87
    topweighttom.blogspot.com

    #390450
    GDC
    Member
    • Total Posts 945

    A very good renewal indeed, it will be interesting to see how Captain Conan stands up to these very good Irish contenders :D

    #390715
    HurdygurdymanHurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1560

    Nicky Henderson is on a suck it and see mission here.

    He could run Simonsig in either the Neptune or the Supreme but he has to find out just how good Captain Conan is first and depending on how he goes here whether he should go for the Neptune or the Superme.

    Being over 2m2f you’d have to think he’s thinking Neptune for Captain Conan but I’m not sure that’s what winning this race would tell him.

    Many of these trials in Ireland don’t seem to come to life until the home turn and go to the horse who can conjure up the most speed after the 2nd last. Most likely that’s down to the fact the ground is very often testing and nothing would get home if they did go a strong pace.

    I would expect Tony Martins will make the running but he’s way out of his class and may well be ignored by the others who will be more interested in what Ruby is up to on Sous Les Cieux. After his dismal display last time I doubt if Ruby will want to go off in front and be more interested in settling his horse than tearing of in pursuit of the leader.

    All the others seem to hold up horses so it could be another tactical affair where speed wins the day rather than stamina.

    If it runs out that way and Captain Conan can show he has the speed to win a tactical affair he may end up confusing poor old Nicky even more than he already is :mrgreen:

    One minute he’s saying Simonsig will beat Fingals Bay at Cheltenham next thing he’s got him entered in a hot 2 miler at Newbury to find out if he is as good at 2 as he is at 2m4f.
    Considering he’s won two p2p over 3 miles and never ran over 2 miles in his life I have to question the man’s sanity on this one.

    What it tells me is he’s desperate to win the Supreme and he thinks Darlan has no chance.

    Captain Conan has got more toe than his big frame might suggest and I reckon if he wins a tactical affair here Barry could be telling NH go Supreme and aim Simonsig at the Neptune where he has a cracking chance as Barry doesn’t like to throw away winning chances on a whim.

    #390719
    ZarkavaZarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4708

    Incredible. An unbiased, honest, truthful post from HGM. I agree with every word. Nice post.

    #390740
    CheltenhamSpecialistCheltenhamSpecialist
    Member
    • Total Posts 1970

    I didn’t notice this thread when I posted the text below in The Supreme Hurdle thread.
    To keep the forum tidy I’ve cut & pasted it below…..

    The Deloitte should go someway to solving the Supreme Novice Hurdle puzzle.

    If Cash And Go jumps straight he should win and will therefore take all the beating in The Supreme

    If he jumps straight and gets beat by Captain Conan it might be that The Capt has the beating of most if not all the Irish novices but I can’t see that happening

    If he jumps straight and gets beat by Soux Les Cieux then Gallileo’s Choice looks the one to be on at Cheltenham as he’ll surely reverese his 2nd with the Mullin’s horse on the likely ground on the first day.

    If he does his usual lunge to the right at every hurdle he’s probably good enough to get away with it in this size field but he won’t win The Supreme jumping like that

    #390880
    bozlikebozlike
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1678

    I’d have to make the point though, if Captain Conan wins tomorrow, and impressively so, Colour Squadron will definitely be of major interest for Cheltenham.

    @TomBarkley87
    topweighttom.blogspot.com

    #390922
    HurdygurdymanHurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1560

    I’m not so sure the Irish novices are much good so this should be interesting.

    I was really taken by Soux Les Cieux the first time I saw him but it’s way too easy to be drawn in by these big flashy chestnut types.

    By all accounts he was thought to be head and shoulders above the rest last time going of at 4/9fav.

    Cash and Go beat him but so did Dylan Ross who then gets beaten easily by Soux Les Cieux’s stable companion Midnight Game who although well beaten by Soux Les Cieux is probably a better horse than any of them.

    Although Soux Les Cieux did take a fair tug early doors he settled a bit after a couple of hurdles and as the race developed Cash and Go wasn’t completely relaxed either.

    I thought he won fair and square and Soux Les Cieux found a big fat ziltch.

    I’m not convinced he’s top drawer and when you beat a horse that runs below expectations very often you have been flattered.

    I do like this Cash and Go’s attitude but would have to back Captain Conan here based on the above thoughts as I do think the Irish horses could prove to be a pretty moderate bunch.

    I wouldn’t be breaking into the piggy bank to bet him as there a lot of water between the UK and Ireland and no way of really telling what’s what until they lock horns.

    #390932
    BiggerBucksBiggerBucks
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20

    I’m not so sure the Irish novices are much good so this should be interesting.

    I was really taken by Soux Les Cieux the first time I saw him but it’s way too easy to be drawn in by these big flashy chestnut types.

    By all accounts he was thought to be head and shoulders above the rest last time going of at 4/9fav.

    Cash and Go beat him but so did Dylan Ross who then gets beaten easily by Soux Les Cieux’s stable companion Midnight Game who although well beaten by Soux Les Cieux is probably a better horse than any of them.

    Although Soux Les Cieux did take a fair tug early doors he settled a bit after a couple of hurdles and as the race developed Cash and Go wasn’t completely relaxed either.

    I thought he won fair and square and Soux Les Cieux found a big fat ziltch.

    I’m not convinced he’s top drawer and when you beat a horse that runs below expectations very often you have been flattered.

    I do like this Cash and Go’s attitude but would have to back Captain Conan here based on the above thoughts as I do think the Irish horses could prove to be a pretty moderate bunch.

    I wouldn’t be breaking into the piggy bank to bet him as there a lot of water between the UK and Ireland and no way of really telling what’s what until they lock horns.

    Agreed. Colour Squadron is no slouch, and although the Squadron would have beaten Conan, there wasn’t a great deal in it. 100/30 is looking mighty tasty about now. I really can’t see Squadron getting beat here.

    #390947
    grey dolphingrey dolphin
    Participant
    • Total Posts 653

    Great ride from Cooper. Not sure why Ruby’s has to come right from the back though. Looks like a 3 miler!

    #390949
    HurdygurdymanHurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1560

    Wrong tactics from Ruby or just a moderate horse?

    Can’t see any of them going to the Festival :(

    Shoud’ve said making an impact at Cheltengam

    #390950
    CheltenhamSpecialistCheltenhamSpecialist
    Member
    • Total Posts 1970

    What did THAT tell us?

    There’s no Festival winner in the field

    By the scenes in the Winners Circle a "nice touch" has been landed
    everyone looked Deloitted (Excuse the pun)

    Tony Martin will be hauled in front of the stewards (again) to explain his "improvement"

    #390951
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5481

    Ruby might well have won had he not ploughed the second last hurdle. It took him forever to get going after that and a fantastic ride from Brian Cooper sealed the deal for the winner. Cash And Go and Captain Conan were disappointing.

    #390953
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26575

    He could run Simonsig in either the Neptune or the Supreme but he has to find out just how good Captain Conan is first and depending on how he goes here whether he should go for the Neptune or the Superme.

    One minute he’s saying Simonsig will beat Fingals Bay at Cheltenham next thing he’s got him entered in a hot 2 miler at Newbury to find out if he is as good at 2 as he is at 2m4f.
    Considering he’s won two p2p over 3 miles and never ran over 2 miles in his life I have to question the man’s sanity on this one.

    Captain Conan has got more toe than his big frame might suggest and I reckon if he wins a tactical affair here Barry could be telling NH go Supreme and aim Simonsig at the Neptune where he has a cracking chance as Barry doesn’t like to throw away winning chances on a whim.

    Simonsig is either a bridle horse or a 2 miler. Hope it’s the latter. As far as distance is concerned, P2Ps mean nothing when compared with racecourse form. It’s possible Simonsig settled much better earlier in his career. Judged on hurdles runs, hasn’t got a hope of staying the Neptune trip at Cheltenham.

    Nicky is as "sane" as ever.

    value is everything
    #390985
    HurdygurdymanHurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1560

    Can’t be that sane Ginger if he entered him in the Neptune; a race you say he can’t possibly win because he wouldn’t get the trip.

    #391005
    bozlikebozlike
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1678

    Annoyingly, todays’ race threw up more questions than it did answers.

    Me being daft thought the Supreme winner would emerge from today, if not from the form. Now, I’m clueless, and My Cash And Go ‘bet'(no money down by the way) on the ‘TRF vs Pricewise’ thread looks like its’ as much use as a chocolate teapot.

    Curiouser and curiouser……..

    @TomBarkley87
    topweighttom.blogspot.com

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