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Tolworth 2012

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  • #20689
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2802

    Have been looking at the race and in particular NJH’s Captain Conan.

    Just watched it’s last win at Auteuil and was very impressed. Checked the time and it compares very well with those put up by Long Run over course & distance in similar conditions.

    Also did a similar time to Spirit Son but carried more weight.

    Owners have only had runners on the flat so far, but i think we’re about to see another Henderson horse enter calculations for the Supreme.

    Henderson said: “Captain Conan is a most likely starter. You won’t have heard of him nor seen him but you most probably will on Saturday.”

    Interesting !

    #385575
    Westender2
    Member
    • Total Posts 20

    Where can you watch replays of French horse racing? Have searched online in the past without success.

    #385578
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    He’s got quite a rep this horse. Originally they were going to take on Fingal Bay at Newbury but decided to wait for this.

    I doubt if many will turn up to take him on but he’ll have to be as good as they think to beat Colour Squadron.

    Can’t see the bookies rushing to make a book on the race.

    #385609
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2802

    Where can you watch replays of French horse racing? Have searched online in the past without success.

    Equidiavideo.fr

    or put the name of the race into Youtube if you don’t use the facility often and payment doesn’t make sense

    #385648
    JJMSports
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    • Total Posts 2033

    Will hopefully just make the price of Prospect Wells bigger . .

    #385678
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    That things a boat JJ another one hit wonder from PN.

    Charlie Longsdon’s is unlike to run he’s already citing the ground as an excuse.

    #385712
    EmmyK
    Member
    • Total Posts 166

    I think it’s probably prospect well’s race. It’s NEVER been a strong g1

    #385713
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2802

    I think it’s probably prospect well’s race. It’s NEVER been a strong g1

    Not a bad roll of honour. Couple of horses have progressed to be excellent chasers.

    Monsignor could have been anything though. Damn shame.

    #385716
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    :oops: Apologies JJ I got my wires crossed and was thinking about Hinterland not Prospect Wells who I actually like.

    Nicky seems awfully confident of Captain Conan running a big race and has already made it clear Simonsig will be heading for the Neptune not the Supreme so I’ve taken everything available from 38 down to 25 on the machine.

    So if he wins I can lay it all off to you lot at 5/1. If he doesn’t please feel free to throw eggs :lol:

    #385742
    wilsonl
    Participant
    • Total Posts 862

    I think it’s probably prospect well’s race. It’s NEVER been a strong g1

    It has had it’s moments;

    1 Monsignor (IRE) 11/8F 6 11-7 M Pitman 107
    2 2½ Best Mate (IRE) 4/1 5 11-7 Henrietta Knight
    3 10 Doctor Goddard 12/1 5 11-7 Philip Hobbs
    4 hd Snow Drop (FR) 100/30 4 10-4 F Doumen

    Agreed with Hurdy though, my interest in tomorrow’s race will be my first ante post bet of the year on Captain Conan for the Supreme.

    If he wins well he’ll rightly (IMO) head the market for the March race.

    And given the opposition tomorrow, plus the fact that it will be only his fourth start over hurdles (and his first over here), he wouldn’t neccessarily need to win this to shorten up.

    Ambitious from Nicky running in this FTO but with the sad loss of LoveTheHigherLaw and Cheltenian yet to be seen out, the Supreme favouritism is there for the taking.

    Lee

    #385771
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2802

    Nicky seems awfully confident of Captain Conan running a big race and has already made it clear Simonsig will be heading for the Neptune not the Supreme

    Where’s he said this about Simonsig

    #385779
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Nicky seems awfully confident of Captain Conan running a big race and has already made it clear Simonsig will be heading for the Neptune not the Supreme

    Where’s he said this about Simonsig

    Damned if I can remember but:
    He was asked what his best trip was and would he run in the owner’s own race at Cheltenham.

    Quote "Definitely not he won’t stay 3 miles" "He was running away at 2miles, so I would say 2 1/2 miles for him" end Quote

    #385788
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Both Nicky and Barry are playing it down a bit with few rehearsed lines, both have said more or less the same thing "you’ll hear more of him after Saturday" They can’t kid a kidder they expect him to win and then Nicky will say, if he does win "He’s always worked well and we thought he was a very good horse, it’s nice when they produce it on the racecourse" If he doesn’t he’ll say "I was very happy with him he’ll come on from that"

    Think I’ll start a thread called Nicky Henderson quotes :lol:

    .

    #385795
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2802

    Nicky seems awfully confident of Captain Conan running a big race and has already made it clear Simonsig will be heading for the Neptune not the Supreme

    Where’s he said this about Simonsig

    Damned if I can remember but:
    He was asked what his best trip was and would he run in the owner’s own race at Cheltenham.

    Quote "Definitely not he won’t stay 3 miles" "He was running away at 2miles, so I would say 2 1/2 miles for him" end Quote

    I thought his response was that he won’t be stepped up to three as he has the speed for the 2 mile race. He thought he should have run Simonsig and Broadbackbob in opposing races when they made their debuts.

    I think he’ll be entered for the Supreme and the Neptune, but because Henderson has other choices in the Supreme, he’ll go for the Neptune unless the ground is soft.

    Personally, i think Simonsig travels superbly and either race is suitable

    #385819
    BiggerBucks
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20

    High Storm is a consistent enough sort but will find these too much for him.

    Magnifique Etoile is a nice looking horse, but this is a mammoth step up in class and Longsdon has admitted the ground won’t suit.

    Captain Conan is an unknown and could go either way.

    Prospect Wells is a very consistent sort and Sandown is sure to suit. He conceded weight last time and ran on Ok. However, we saw there that his pace is suspect and in a five runner race, pace is everything. I would also say that he probably needs another furlong or too.

    Which leaves Colour Squadron. Game as a pheasant dinner. Battled on really well to beat Mountblazon with a bit in hand. Also tanked the well regarded Ericht by 20Lengths whereas PW only managed it by 2.25lengths (though he had an extra 4 pounds on his back).

    To get an idea of Colour Sqaudron and Prospect Wells’ respective acceleration, I timed their last two fences at Newbury 17furlongs. Colour Sqaudron, despite the soft ground, ran from the last two fences to the finish 3 seconds quicker than Prospect Wells (good-to-soft). Prospect Wells was carrying 11-5 that day whereas in his race Sqaudron only carried 11-0. However, I think Colour Squadron will just have a bit too much for Nicholls’ mount and will probably make all.

    I’m smashing into it @ 2/1

    Good luck! :D

    #385850
    JJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2033

    No worries Hurdygurdyman.

    The second to Steps to Freedom at the Cheltenham Open Meeting is the single best piece of form in the race. He was far from disgraced in the Ladbroke, and sets a high standard.

    #385856
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    I don’t think any of the form is that great which is a bit of a shame but typical of where the once great Sandown seems to be heading these days.

    Colour Squadron is a nice horse, he beat Montbazon who no doubt will be decent sometime in the future but so far has been very disappointing.

    I believe Prospect Wells was supposed to go novice chasing after Newbury in November but they scrapped the idea and went to Ascot. I think he’s be cracking horse when he does go over fences but he was disappointing carrying no weight in what was only a listed race a listed race with no apparent excuse apart from he could have done with a stronger gallop? No certainty he’ll get one here

    He was very impressive and looked a bit special when he beat All the Aces who was barely in the door at Seven Barrows when he finished 2nd to him which surely was for education purposes.

    All the Aces has won since but against very little.

    Nicky obviously thinks Captain Conan is smarter than your average bear, as Yogi would say and that he’s much better than All The Aces was when finished 4 lengths behind PN’s horse or he wouldn’t be here.

    It’s a bit out of character for Nicky to drop one straight in at the deep end but he’s not going in totally blind and I think we’ll find he’s not here for any other reason than he is confident his horse can win this.

    I notice all the bookies who were offering 20/1 and 25/1 for Cheltenham have removed him from their lists today as they have no idea what to expect. No doubt they don’t want to get caught laying him at big odds.

    Selection:

    Captain Conan 5/1

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