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Thanks Fist.
Looking forward to the jumps season proper with every passing day.
But, for the here and now, the Arc.
Personally I think Sea The Stars is not genetically built for the Arc, his breeding suggests speed and not many Arc winners have fallen into that category. Aiden O’Brien has to stop looking for ways to BEAT Sea The Stars and start concentrating on ways for his own horses to WIN (I don’t mean generally here, I mean when STS is in opposition). The Epsom Derby played right into the hands of STS and this was caused by O’Brien trying to set the race up for his 2, Rip Van Winkle & Fame And Glory. The same can be said for the Eclipse and the Irish Champion. I am not for 1 second saying that is why STS won these races but instead of the tactics employed by O’Brien helping his horses they actually seemed to hinder his runners and help STS. Come Arc day I hope upon hope that O’Brien does not play the tactics game and instead allows Fame And Glory to run on his merits without any no-hopers trying to spoil the race for STS and any other fancied runners.
Thanks for that Donkey
I actually joined this forum on 24th September (3 days ago) but the conversation regarding my book took place on the 23rd September. So unless they can see into the future this is not how they discovered my publication!!
Nice try though.
Hi Moehat & Gerald
That is odd (but good) that people have been mentioning Dosage ratings on the Betfair forum. This has nothing to do with me as the betfair forum is somewhere I tend to avoid, the last time I was there the main topic of discussion was what everyone had for tea?!?!
Moehat – The book is actually available from the publishers web-site (High Stakes publishing) not my web-page, but you are correct in saying that closer to release time (24th October) it will be going on Amazon.
Thanks Guys
Moehat
Much obliged for bringing my book to people’s attention. I’m currently working hard to promote my book and preparing myself for a trip to next weeks Arc De Triomphe. I am however truly chomping at the bit waiting for the jumps season to get under way.
I will nip over to the Grand National ante post section in a moment.
Out of interest how did you hear about my book?
Best regards
Ben Aitken
I agree, Dessie’s breeding was not that of a Gold Cup/King George/Irish National winner, but he was a freak! He was a one off and there are always exceptions to the rules. What Dessie did have was bags of speed in his pedigree and he utilised this to the max by front running his way to a majority of his victories.
Good luck today with Max Bygraves.
Dar Re Mi is another who does not fit the breeding profile of an Arc winner. The Gosden filly has a profile that is leaning too much on the stamina side for her to get truly competitive at the Longchamp showpiece. In all fairness the simple facts are she is just not good enough. Of the filly’s that are likely to turn up Sariska may have the best chance of sneaking into the places. The worry with her is that she was beaten by Dar Re MI last time out. On breeding however she has slightly better credentials than the other 2 females, but still not ideal.
Unless you can get real EW value about any of the 3 filly’s it is probably best to leave them alone this year.
Breeding statistics (and the Dosage method in particular) are my area of expertise and you would have to go back a very long way to find an Arc winner as weakly bred as Stacelita.
Personally I think the French are looking for the new Zarkava and Stacelita is the horse they are pinning their hopes on.
I, like you, cannot see any reason to back her in the Arc.
Rip Van Winkle is a good horse. A great horse? Time will tell I suppose. The facts are though he is not a great miler. He does not have the breeding to be a great miler and the fact he has won his last 2 at a mile says more about his superiority over his opponents rather than his superiority at the distance. His breeding points more in the direction of a 1m2f/1m4f horse and this is evident in the way Murtagh has used him in his last 2 outings. He doesnt win his races with a blistering turn of foot but rather by setting sail for home from a long way out and outstaying his opponents. He deserves credit for his last 2 victories but would be seen in much better light over further now he has rediscovered his winning form.
Regards
Ben Aitken
Arc winners are, unsurprisingly, stoutly bred individuals. This is probably the biggest hurdle Stacelita has to overcome in her quest to make it back to back wins for the fairer sex. There is a distinct lack of influential sires in the filly’s pedigree and it is highly likely she will be out of her depth against the colts and older horses.
Hi everyone
I will be attending Longchamp for Arc day. My first visit to the Arc so it will be a learning curve and a half I expect. Some advice I have been given is to place all bets before the first race as it can become very difficult once the racing has started. For the big race itself I will be placing my bets before I leave for France or more than likely, utilising the hotels Wi Fi connection and jumping on Betfair before leaving for the track.
Regards
Ben Aitken
