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I’m not an expert on breeding through choice but what you are saying is what I am seeing. I think she’s a grand filly in her own class but has the look of a flyweight about to step in the ring with Mike Tyson…….Zarkava was all about herself and looked a real powerhouse whereas Stacelita has much less substance to her and looks to me like she would fold under pressure.to be honest when I first saw her I wondered what all the hulabaloo was about………..I’ve watched her last 2 runs about 10 times and I’m damned if I can see anything that would make me want to back her in the Arc
Breeding statistics (and the Dosage method in particular) are my area of expertise and you would have to go back a very long way to find an Arc winner as weakly bred as Stacelita.
Personally I think the French are looking for the new Zarkava and Stacelita is the horse they are pinning their hopes on.
I, like you, cannot see any reason to back her in the Arc.
If people are pinning their hopes on either filly (Dar Re Mi or Stacelita) being good enough to shake up Sea The Stars next weekend then I think they are going to be disappointed. Roman Empress and Beach Bunny, two fillys with good form with Dar Re Mi in recent months were both stuffed at Gowran today in a very ordinary Group 3. The form isn’t anything to write home about and I think both fillys will be kicked out of the way by the colts next Sunday.
I’m glad they’re both intended runners in the Arc though because it should make life easier for Chinese White in the Prix De L’Opera!
Dar Re Mi is another who does not fit the breeding profile of an Arc winner. The Gosden filly has a profile that is leaning too much on the stamina side for her to get truly competitive at the Longchamp showpiece. In all fairness the simple facts are she is just not good enough. Of the filly’s that are likely to turn up Sariska may have the best chance of sneaking into the places. The worry with her is that she was beaten by Dar Re MI last time out. On breeding however she has slightly better credentials than the other 2 females, but still not ideal.
Unless you can get real EW value about any of the 3 filly’s it is probably best to leave them alone this year.
Sariska and Dar Re Mi don’t look like they will be lining up.
Even money for Sea The Stars is probably the best you get before the race.
Greetings, Ben; I was mentioning your book on the Trends section of the forum, in Gerald’s Grand National ante post bets bit.
Moehat
Much obliged for bringing my book to people’s attention. I’m currently working hard to promote my book and preparing myself for a trip to next weeks Arc De Triomphe. I am however truly chomping at the bit waiting for the jumps season to get under way.
I will nip over to the Grand National ante post section in a moment.
Out of interest how did you hear about my book?
Best regards
Ben Aitken
Thanks for that Donkey
I actually joined this forum on 24th September (3 days ago) but the conversation regarding my book took place on the 23rd September. So unless they can see into the future this is not how they discovered my publication!!
Nice try though.
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Funny how some members shine through and seem to have that little bit of extra knowledge and a way of puting things you sit up and pay attention. Can’t wait to lock horns with you on NH racing Ben and good luck with the book.
Now that’s enough mamsy pamsy talk for one day what about this genius Aiden O’Brien claiming he has finally come up with a way of beating Sea the Stars?….very much a long the lines I said it might happen only problem is Aiden doesn’t have the right horse to do it with. Not unless he wants to buy Conduit before the race
You can’t blame the man for trying but where he expects Fame and Glory to find that vital turn of foot from that could take Sea the Stars down is beyond me. Unlike Conduit who could come out of the clouds and catch Sea the Stars very late in the day Fame and Glory and Sea the Stars are too much alike IMO. Both have an extremely high cruising speed and travel well but it’s that last 1/2 furlong where Fame and Glory fails to quicken that separates the 2……….he seems to come there cruising hits a certain speed and then just gallops on. I wonder if he has plan B ready he may need it
Thanks Fist.
Looking forward to the jumps season proper with every passing day.
But, for the here and now, the Arc.
Personally I think Sea The Stars is not genetically built for the Arc, his breeding suggests speed and not many Arc winners have fallen into that category. Aiden O’Brien has to stop looking for ways to BEAT Sea The Stars and start concentrating on ways for his own horses to WIN (I don’t mean generally here, I mean when STS is in opposition). The Epsom Derby played right into the hands of STS and this was caused by O’Brien trying to set the race up for his 2, Rip Van Winkle & Fame And Glory. The same can be said for the Eclipse and the Irish Champion. I am not for 1 second saying that is why STS won these races but instead of the tactics employed by O’Brien helping his horses they actually seemed to hinder his runners and help STS. Come Arc day I hope upon hope that O’Brien does not play the tactics game and instead allows Fame And Glory to run on his merits without any no-hopers trying to spoil the race for STS and any other fancied runners.
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I think Rip Van Winkle conclusively proved yesterday that he’s just as effective over ten furlongs as he is over a mile (he won the Sussex impressively and was going on again at the end of the QEII), so to suggest that both he and Fame And Glory were undone by Ballydoyle’s tactics in the Eclipse and Irish Champion is ridiculous.
O’Brien has tried to beat Sea The Stars every which way and has failed. The slow pace at Epsom was designed to give Rip Van Winkle (not Fame And Glory) every chance and may conceivably have aided the winner’s cause, but no run since has been to the detriment of Ballydoyle’s main contender on the day. They just weren’t good enough.
And as for Sea The Stars being built for speed, that’s open to debate. The progeny of Cape Cross tend to excel over 7-9f, but he does have middle distance winners (Ouija Board, for example) and Urban Sea is as good a 10-12f mare as you could hope for. It’s also important to remember that the offspring of both Cape Cross and Urban Sea progress well, so it’s entirely possible that Sea The Stars will improve even further.
Good ground and he’s nailed on for the Arc.
Equitrack
I realise that the slow pace at Epsom was designed for Rip Van Winkle but it in fact not only played to the hands of STS but it also put pay to the chances of Fame and Glory. The point I am trying to make here is that O’Brien needs to concentrate on what his own runners are doing rather than what someone else’s horse is doing. I agree the tactics employed may not have hindered his own runners that much but they certainly played into the hands of Kinane and STS.
Ouija Board herself was relatively speedily bred for a 1m2f/4f horse but she did gain some stamina influences from her Dam’s side, the same cannot be said about STS. It is my feeling that there may be other runners in the Arc field that are more suited to the Longchamp 1m4f than superstar colt Sea The Stars.
I was stunned fame and glory never sat closer to the pacemakers in the irish champion.I know fame and glory had a 2 length lead on sts as they entered the straight but with sea the stars turn of foot ballydoyle must of known what the outcome would be.fame and glory should have been at least half a dozen lengths up and emploed catch me if you can type tactics.The conclusion i come to is maybe they didnt want to give him a hard race before the arc and a possible run in bc turf.As this seems the only way fame and glory could beat sts does anyone agree?
I was stunned fame and glory never sat closer to the pacemakers in the irish champion.I know fame and glory had a 2 length lead on sts as they entered the straight but with sea the stars turn of foot ballydoyle must of known what the outcome would be.fame and glory should have been at least half a dozen lengths up and emploed catch me if you can type tactics.The conclusion i come to is maybe they didnt want to give him a hard race before the arc and a possible run in bc turf.As this seems the only way fame and glory could beat sts does anyone agree?
Nah, that would have made it easier for STS to take aim at him. F&G clearly needs the 12F test. Too many horses in big irish races have tailed off for us to know how good any of the winners are. The ground dosen’t help. The only horse who has a chance of beating STS over 10 would be RVW, and it would have to be a flat 10. Too many people are simplistic by just mentioning the distance, as undulations can be everything.
The point i was trying to make was do you think they will use similar tactics in arc or would ryan moore try something along those lines on conduit.
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I was stunned fame and glory never sat closer to the pacemakers in the irish champion.I know fame and glory had a 2 length lead on sts as they entered the straight but with sea the stars turn of foot ballydoyle must of known what the outcome would be.fame and glory should have been at least half a dozen lengths up and emploed catch me if you can type tactics.The conclusion i come to is maybe they didnt want to give him a hard race before the arc and a possible run in bc turf.As this seems the only way fame and glory could beat sts does anyone agree?
Ghost
Broadly agree.
FAG certainly appeared (to me) to be ridden with another day in mind, and not to best advantage.
Regarding Conduit, the stable (as I recall) decided a while ago that there’s usually enough pace in the Arc not to need a pacemaker, but I’d trust both trainer and jockey to make full use of the horse’s attributes anyway.
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