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There’s a lot of valid points being made and I agree in particular that the tactics in the Derby (AOB said there weren’t any but let’s assume their was) fell right into the hands of Sea the Stars. That said of AOB believed Rop Van Winkle was his best hope then he had to ensure he got the trip. What happened is Sea the Stars got the trip and because he has superior 10f speed the race turned out perfect for him.
I just watched the Derby again just for the hell of it and still can’t believe how slow the went for the first 6 furlongs. They must have really been turning it on down Tattenham Hill but MK sat there like he had all day to move…..he really did win so very easily although flat to the boards over the last couple of hundred yards.
It’s hard to imagine him not staying at Lonchamp but a downhill run from TC does nothing to prove he will.
This where I disagree AOB should change his tactics now. I think he blew it when StS beat Mastercraftsman by going just too fast and totally burning his own horse out…….I had vison in that race of Sea the Stars heading him and MCM fighting back but he was dead on his feet by the time MK pushed the button.
Against him and F and G was a joke MCM never got the trip in the ground and F and G is no more a top 1m 2f animal than Binocular is a Grand National horse. Why the hell he never sent him to the St Leger I’ll never know, would have eaten them alive.
So a change of tactics when they are most needed could be a disaster for Fame and Glory…..They have got to a blistering pace and there’s no sense on AOB thinking Fame and Glory can cruise up to Sea the Stars a furling out and beat him for toe……no chance……………My plan B:- what I would do is try a Yeats and change tactics slightly…..I’d have pace makers flat to the boards from the off and have Fame and Glory who’s biggest asset is his high crusing speed tucked in just behind but instaed of making a move in the straight I’d go before the home turn and try and outgallop the lot of them……one thing he does do is stay and his cruising speed has others at full stretch…….I’d bet not many would be able to go with him that early and more than a few would be caught napping…….take 6 lengths out of Sea the Stars who’ll be held up to make sure he gets the trip and they might just get away with it.
They run a "normal" race with Fame and Glory I can’t see him finishing any better than 3rd
Everybody – including Ballydoyle – has had enough opportunities by now to discover any possible chinks in the armour of STS, and it just makes for hilarious reading all the variables and theories being put forward as to how he could be beaten…by the same plodders he’s already trashed
Why continue to make snide excuse’s for the great one being so…great?
When will the ‘I told you so’ brigade just realise that their goose flew a long time ago
I`d be interested,when STS comes cruising home on Sunday,how many negative posters will say,Christ he is a good horse after all. They all keep looking for someone to beat him. Not this year I don`t think. Unless something we haven`t yet seen comes along.He is the champ alright
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I’m sure someone will rate the race through one of the more disappointing runners, Roddy, and use it to claim that Sea The Stars beat nothing (whilst, of course, asserting that he had the race set up for him by Ballydoyle).
Some excellent points being raised on this thread.
I would like to state that I think Sea The Stars is an outstanding horse and possibly the best flat horse of
my
generation, regardless of what happens to him on Sunday. I am in no way trying to knock the animal. The way I look at races does lead me to believe however that the Arc does not look to be the race for him. I will be the 1st to hold my hands up if he proves me wrong.
Sea The Stars is an immense racehorse and has all the attributes of a natural superstar but his ratings and real form are over 10 furlongs. His actual Derby rating does not suggest to me an easy winner of the Arc or for him to be odds on in such a race. I might be wrong but the bookies have foiled similar gambles in the past and don’t say you weren’t told if they add this one to their books.
Sea The Stars will never meet an Arc field akin to that dispatched by Dancing Brave, nor did he get the chance to win a triple crown a la Nijinsky. In addition the strength of the opposition from the older division he’s faced has been poor, Conduit facing him at a shorter distance than his optimum and when very likely still with some rusty edges needing polished.
What you can say is that, during his three year old season, he has beaten everything set in front of him. He’s won a Guineas from a decent field including two future dual Group 1 winning milers, a Derby from a horse who waltzed home in the Irish equivalent next time, an Eclipse from a horse who has since looked anything but ordinary, with a King George winner nest time out miles behind in third for good measure.
He’s won a tactical race in the Juddmonte International and an Irish Champion Stakes in which he put more distance between himself and Fame and Glory and Mastercraftsman than he had in their previous encounters. He’s had first run, came from behind when the others have had first run on him, showed speed, stamina and always looked imperious in the paddock and when parading.
It is often difficult to place a horse in its proper historical context at the time it is achieving the wins that will sit in the record books but, like Zarkava, Dancing Brave, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard and Nijinsky sometimes it is abundantly clear that you are seeing something special and that is surely the case with this outstanding animal, half brother, before we forget, to one of the world’s pre-eminent stallions.
The ONLY thing he hasn’t faced (apart from the Leger I so much hoped he’d tackle) is a really truly run mile and a half. If he can defeat the likes of Conduit, Fame and Glory and Vision D’Etat at Longchamp on Sunday (and James Willoughby of the Racing Post thinks he can’t) after a strongly run race then he’ll have more than earned the right to sit alongside the aforementioned group of champions, make no mistake about that.
If he doesn’t…
… then we’ll talk again next week.
I can’t see any of the Ballydoyle runners beating STS on Sunday – however it would not be the biggest shock of all time if he was beaten – he has had a long season.
I would not be at all surprised if we had another filly winning the contest this year – Dar Re Mi.to win so fa and pick up the doh!! (sorry could not resist that) but puns aside I do see her being the biggest threat if she does take her place..
Very good post Cormack puting everything perfectly in context, although on a small point Zarkava is very luck to find herself on that list.
and shes pretty tough too isnt she Paul?
That counts for plenty in this race, I feel. I think shes an constantly underrated filly from whom we may yet to have the best
Thats a great summary Cormack, but it could just be that he will actually be at his very best over 12f? Dancing Brave had a similar profile in many ways, assumed that his best distance was 8-10f by many…and then he won a true run arc. The way he sauntered past that Irish champion field hardly had me fretting over two more furlongs
Just a small point, as has been hinted at earlier, a good spell of weather does not necessarily mean good ground for the Arc.
I went to Longchamp in 2003, principally to see High Chaparral try to win where he had came up short the year before. I was in Paris all that week and enjoyed the glorious weather (it had been dry the previous week also)…so imagine my surprise and disappointment when we arrived for the Saturday fixture the ground was bottomless. Knowing locals winked sagely about its suitability for Dalakhani and so it proved, with the ‘Strangers of Quality’, as the racecard so coloutfully put it, being inconvenienced.
Since then I have always had a look at the link between the ground conditions and the leading French fancy and would suggest what ever Cavalryman wants in the way of ground he will get. So good to soft for me.
Could be Clivex, Galileo certainly excelled at that trip.
Can’t have Dar Re Mi as a danger though. She is good, she is tough but she has a stone to find in my book.
Conduit will have everything set up for a big run. Stoute will have him absolutely A1, the trip will suit and he will surely get a stiff pace. For me he lacks brilliance but he’s a battler and a grinder and you wouldn’t really want to have to pass him with a furlong left. I’m not sure he’s had all the credit he’s deserved and he is the one I’d be concerned about if I was Mick Kinane.
Really looking forward to it though.
Certainly agree is has the potential to be a cracking race and I would love to see STS win to finish of a fantastic season but even if he were to lose it should not detract from what has gone before – I would see winning the Arc as the icing on an already well baked cake.
I have not looked forward to an Arc so keenly for many a long time – I’ve blown the dust of my French phrase book – I have already checked-in for my flight – and I can’t wait for Sunday now.
Very good post Cormack puting everything perfectly in context, although on a small point Zarkava is very luck to find herself on that list.
Yeah, very lucky. I mean beating 7 subsequent Group 1 winners who’ve won 18 Group 1s between them means sod all, doesn’t it? Goldikova in the BC Mile will make it 19, maybe even the Foret too to make it 20.
Still have Vision D’Etat, Schiaparelli, Getaway, Youmzain, Dar Re Mi and Ask to go. It’s really not beyond the realms of ridiculousness to think that that total couldn’t be as high as 24 by the start of November.
Would be very interested to know if there’s any horse over the past 20 years who beat 7 subsequent Group 1 winners providing 18 Group 1 victories between them over the course of 4 races.
Just a thought,if sts is disappointing in arc,do you think we will see him in bc classic or champion stakes still or might connections have a rethink,put him away and grace us with his presence next year.
The thing I like about Dar Re Mi is her undoubted engine, her consistency and tenacity. I’ve had a ‘fun’ bet on her @65’s to win but nothing would make me happier than to see STS come home in front. I wouldn’t want to ruin the spectacle by going mad on anything.
This is a race I intend to take in fully and hopefully watch again and again for years to come. I do feel, however, that the only chance we’ve got of seeing STS on the track again is if he gets beat….and even then, it’d probably be in Japan.
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