- This topic has 477 replies, 83 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 7 months ago by
.
- Posts
Just a thought,if sts is disappointing in arc,do you think we will see him in bc classic or champion stakes still or might connections have a rethink,put him away and grace us with his presence next year.
I think he could be beaten by the long hard season or the trip and in either event, you wont see him again.
SHL
Does the possibilty still exist whereby if the Longchamps ground on Sunday is not to John Oxx’s liking, that Sea The Stars could be withdrawn ?
Part of me hopes so, as I’d prefer to see him take on Zenyatta, Rip Van Winkle et al in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. It somehow seems an even more mouth watering and intiguing prospect than his attempt at winning this year’s Arc.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Does the possibilty still exist whereby if the Longchamps ground on Sunday is not to John Oxx’s liking, that Sea The Stars could be withdrawn ?
Part of me hopes so, as I’d prefer to see him take on Zenyatta, Rip Van Winkle et al in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. It somehow seems an even more mouth watering and intiguing prospect than his attempt at winning this year’s Arc.
I can’t agree with that i’m afraid. The Arc is the bigger race and a bigger test.
Zenyatta wouldn’t be too much of a problem, as RVW and possibly Mastercraftsman will show on BC night, and STS has beaten them both often enough. Infact i have my doubts that Zenyatta will even turn up, and in my opinion she’s more likely to go for the Ladies Classic. The Arc is 12F against many horses STS hasn’t faced, and will have more runners and unknown quantities than he’s ever faced before.
- Total Posts 17716
I’d love to see him take in both races.
If Sea the Stars gets beaten in the Arc because he doesn’t get the trip that’s one thing but if he is beaten fair and square then it poses the question, has he been made to look better than he actually is beause those he has beaten were running at the wrong trips.
I don’t think he will be beaten because of the latter reason but he could be because of the first.
If he won and went to the Breeders he’d be facing Rip Van Winkle but beating him again over 1m2f would prove little in my eyes.
What annys me somewhat is the British "we are the greatest attitude" which is reflected in ratings and the betting for the up and coming meeting.
Breeders Cup Classic Sea the Stars and Rip Van Winkle 1st and 2nd fav.
Breeders Cup Mile British horses fill the first 6 places in the betting.
Breeders Cup Turf Conduit and Fame and Glory head the betting
Breeders Cup Fillies Dar Ra Mei and Midday head the betting
Breeders Cup Marathon Kitewood and Septimus head the market.
We/they assume Sea the Stars is much superiot to a filly in Zenyatta whi’s aliving legend in the USA and when you look at the beting for the rest the Americans must only train mules.
The truth is if we won 2 races over there we would be doing really well and if we came home empty handed I would not be one bit surprised.
I could be a mile of the mark or our ratings could be amile of the mark.
I agree with "H" while the Arc is one hard race to win the unltimate test for Sea the Stars must be to take on the filly.
To be honest if she’s within a length of Sea the Stars with a furlong to run she’ll make mincemeat of him IMO. Getting within a length of him will be the problem though and hopefully Sea the Star and Rip would go early enough that she wouldn’t get a blow in.
Make no mistake this Zenyatta is a machine in all but one of her races when she’s gone past them she’s looked like she’s just starting to get into a top gear and when you think she flat to the boards she suddenly seems to relax back into a canter…..she’s an amazing filly and the only way Sea the Stars can be called the best horse in the world is to go and beat her….not have some would be ratings expert tell is so like it’s fact.
By ‘best’ do you just mean ‘fastest’? I don’t know much about Zenyatta’s breeding, temperament etc
. Sea the Stars is just the complete package; breeding, temperament,looks, attitude, speed etc etc. The one and only doubt about this horse is his ability to stay 12f but, hey, he did win the Derby did he not?
Fist you are talking mince !!!!
The bookies ain’t that daft and European horse won quite a few races last year, i think it was something like 5 out of the 12. I’ve absolutely no idea why you wouldn’t be surprised if horses from over here didn’t win a race.
Some of your recent predictions lead me to believe that you’d knock out a martian if you threw a stone at a seagull !
Given that it’s the same location as last year, then the European horses will be picking up a good few prizes.
Zenyatta hasn’t raced of anything like the calibre of Rip Van Winkle nevermind Sea The Stars.
American Racing is very weak at the moment….expect Europe to dominate especially since Zenyatta will go for the Ladies Classic i would imagine
Would agree with that, the part of the European horses winning a few races. The turf alone will see at least one winner, most likely more. The plastic surface races will surely see a few as well. Next year is when you might see close to a shutout.
As for the Arc I’d offer the theory that STS might not be tired at all. He is a big, beautiful, powerful looking athlete who is maturing before our eyes and his last race was surely his best. His phlegma before, during and after the races along with his hardy constitution and pure class makes this the exceptional animal he is. If he is spot on on Sunday I dont believe for one second that he is going to be caught out by the distance.
I will however also state that if he were to drop another 0.1 or so on the machine I’d have to lay him simply because the odds regardless of what I might think tell me he is negative value for this particular race. I would be cheering him to win if he were in the spot to do so. This would be one of those rare moments for me where the result of my bet plays second fiddle to the actual result.
A horse for the ages if he wins this.
I know STS is supposed to be well. Im wondering if its possible to actually know if your horse is overtrained or beyond peak at the end of the season. Not sure one can really?
With regard to Zenyatta, has she beaten many colts yet?
SHL
Very good post Cormack puting everything perfectly in context, although on a small point Zarkava is very luck to find herself on that list.
Yeah, very lucky. I mean beating 7 subsequent Group 1 winners who’ve won 18 Group 1s between them means sod all, doesn’t it? Goldikova in the BC Mile will make it 19, maybe even the Foret too to make it 20.
Still have Vision D’Etat, Schiaparelli, Getaway, Youmzain, Dar Re Mi and Ask to go. It’s really not beyond the realms of ridiculousness to think that that total couldn’t be as high as 24 by the start of November.
Would be very interested to know if there’s any horse over the past 20 years who beat 7 subsequent Group 1 winners providing 18 Group 1 victories between them over the course of 4 races.
I respect your opinion Zarkava but I think your letting your admiration of the filly confuse her actual achievements with her unrealised potential (in the context of the likes of Mill Reef, Nijinsky, Dancing Brave etc.)
What you could definetly say about her was
She was the best of her sex in 2008
She was the best of her generation
She was the best racehorse in Europe in 2008
The limit of her talent was not discovered.What you can’t say is that she was the equal of those on the list (Dancing Brave, Mill Reef, Nijinsky & Brigadier Gerard)and that was because she had an unambitious campaign compared to those above.
Those champions were campaigned home and abroad (except BG, I think), they went on flat tracks and the likes of Epsom, left handed and right handed.
Zarkava ran 7 times …6 against fillies only
6 times at Longchamp
4 times over the same course and distance
Exclusively on right handed flat tracks and never more than 25 miles from her own stable.She was a great filly she did it against all who were put in front of her, on the clock, in the eye and was rarely extended but it is an imaginative leap to have her the equal of those on the list.
If he won and went to the Breeders he’d be facing Rip Van Winkle but beating him again over 1m2f would prove little in my eyes.
I don’t agree with this. I’ve never been to Santa Anita, but it’s a sharp, 2-bend 10f, a world away and then some from Sandown I’d imagine. The extra emphasis on speed should suit Rip more than Sea The Stars, and I’d have thought that if Sea The Stars is ever going to post a truly monstrous rating it would be under those sort of conditions.
Breeders Cup Mile British horses fill the first 6 places in the betting.
A pedantic point, but the 4/6 favourite for this is trained in France. Furthermore, she skooshed up in the race last year and has almost undoubtedly improved in 2009. There’s not one iota of a "we are the greatest" argument here, I’d proffer.
Very good post Cormack puting everything perfectly in context, although on a small point Zarkava is very luck to find herself on that list.
Yeah, very lucky. I mean beating 7 subsequent Group 1 winners who’ve won 18 Group 1s between them means sod all, doesn’t it? Goldikova in the BC Mile will make it 19, maybe even the Foret too to make it 20.
Still have Vision D’Etat, Schiaparelli, Getaway, Youmzain, Dar Re Mi and Ask to go. It’s really not beyond the realms of ridiculousness to think that that total couldn’t be as high as 24 by the start of November.
Would be very interested to know if there’s any horse over the past 20 years who beat 7 subsequent Group 1 winners providing 18 Group 1 victories between them over the course of 4 races.
I respect your opinion Zarkava but I think your letting your admiration of the filly confuse her actual achievements with her unrealised potential (in the context of the likes of Mill Reef, Nijinsky, Dancing Brave etc.)
What you could definetly say about her was
She was the best of her sex in 2008
She was the best of her generation
She was the best racehorse in Europe in 2008
The limit of her talent was not discovered.What you can’t say is that she was the equal of those on the list (Dancing Brave, Mill Reef, Nijinsky & Brigadier Gerard)and that was because she had an unambitious campaign compared to those above.
Those champions were campaigned home and abroad (except BG, I think), they went on flat tracks and the likes of Epsom, left handed and right handed.
Zarkava ran 7 times …6 against fillies only
6 times at Longchamp
4 times over the same course and distance
Exclusively on right handed flat tracks and never more than 25 miles from her own stable.She was a great filly she did it against all who were put in front of her, on the clock, in the eye and was rarely extended but it is an imaginative leap to have her the equal of those on the list.
Very fair point.
Except it’s more like 30 miles
.I’d love to see him take in both races.
If Sea the Stars gets beaten in the Arc because he doesn’t get the trip that’s one thing but if he is beaten fair and square then it poses the question, has he been made to look better than he actually is beause those he has beaten were running at the wrong trips.
I don’t think that’s fair, Fist.
Would it be asking too much to afford STS the benefit of the doubt just
once
? Could we not find it in ourselves to call to maybe put it down to a race too far…possibly?
People seem ready to make all sorts of excuses for the rest…pace wasn’t fast enough or slow enough; blaming jockeys (Fortune); Delegator’s really a 7 furlong horse; RVW is really a 10 furlong horse; RVW is now officially a miler (and a brilliant one, for that matter, AND now we know how to ride him!);FAG wasn’t fully wound up for his latest bashing etc etc….
No, I’ll accept any excuse in defeat, should one be needed – I think he’s earned it.
- Total Posts 17716
Well if he doesn’t get beat it won’t matter but I do think it’s a ver fair question to be asked if he is beaten fair and square…….in other words he gets the trip and shows no signs of being over the top.
Horse can look unbeatable one day and look ordinary the next. I happen to think Sea the Stars is a great horse but if he was beaten I would want to know why especially if he was beaten by Fame and Glory.
I happen to think Rip Van Winkle is not a 10 furlong horse. I think he’s 100% a miler and I’m not being smart after the fact here. Read back my posts before he won two races back (After the Eclipse) and couldn’t have made it any more clear.
I certainly don’t believe Fame and Glory is a 10f horse and Mastercraftsman definitily doesn’t get the trip.
So Think it’s a very fair point that the odds up to now have been stacked in Sea the Stars favour but that doesn’t mean I think he’s not the best 10f horse we’ve seen since they invented the loaf.
The thing is it’s not what I think or what anythone else thinks that counts is what happens between now and November which will really determine how Sea the Stars goes down in history. One of the best middle distance horses of all time or just one of the best 10 furlong horses of all time.
- Total Posts 17716
Fist you are talking mince !!!!
The bookies ain’t that daft and European horse won quite a few races last year, i think it was something like 5 out of the 12. I’ve absolutely no idea why you wouldn’t be surprised if horses from over here didn’t win a race.
Some of your recent predictions lead me to believe that you’d knock out a martian if you threw a stone at a seagull !
Given that it’s the same location as last year, then the European horses will be picking up a good few prizes.
Some of my predictions.You cheeky muppet last time you picked one that was placed was in the Gold Cup…….and he just scraped into 3rd…………..behind Golden Miller
- Total Posts 17716
Zenyatta hasn’t raced of anything like the calibre of Rip Van Winkle nevermind Sea The Stars.
American Racing is very weak at the moment….expect Europe to dominate especially since Zenyatta will go for the Ladies Classic i would imagine
What happened to:- they can only beat what’s put in front of them?
Zenyatta has made a complete mockery of some really decent horses in the USA. She’s beaten everytihing they have put in front of her and gave them 10 and 15 lengths start in every race she’s run in.
Many people made the sam mistake of assuming War Admiral who was bred in the pink must be better than Sea Buscuit. If only life was so simple.
There is no denying Zenyatta is an amazing filly and with a perfect 10/10 record who’s to say she’s a stone better or a stone worse than Sea the Stars? You me the couch? You are only guessing mate the truth is no one has a clue and olny the racecourse asnwers these questions 100% when there an ocean between horses. What she has beaten doesn’t mean **** to be honest.
One things for sure if Sea the Stars did go to the uSA you can bet your life realist John Oxx would rather Zenyatta did go for the ladies and Sea the Stars didn’t have to take her on.
Zenyatta hasn’t raced of anything like the calibre of Rip Van Winkle nevermind Sea The Stars.
American Racing is very weak at the moment….expect Europe to dominate especially since Zenyatta will go for the Ladies Classic i would imagine
What happened to:- they can only beat what’s put in front of them?
You didn’t use that logic for Sea the Stars, so why apply it for Zenyatta ?
Casting aside my doubts that she will even turn up for the BCC, even if she does i think she would struggle to place let alone win it.
Her running style is all about coming off the pace. Fair enough against a certain calibre of horse because she cruises brilliantly, but this is Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman we’re talking about here.
.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.