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Fist, why do you tease us so?
I can only imagine that the horse in question is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, which narrows the list of suspects down to Glass Harmonium, Warringah or Spanish Moon. The latter I could see running a decent race, but if the other two are up to it then I’ll bear my a*se behind Tanya on Channel 4 one Saturday afternoon.
Stacelita looks more inviting by the second.
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Who mentioned SMS?
You are scraping the bottom of the Stoute barrel with Warringah who hasn’t form anything approaching what is required to win an Arc. . Spanish Moon is almost certain to run but I couldn’t see him winning it.I think you are being very unkind and a bit presumptive where Glass Harmonium is concerned. Don’t forget he was SM’s Derby horse but has been slow to come to himself. He showed marked improvement when turning the Dante form on it’s head at Ascot. Perhaps not the best race but he came round the entire field that day quickening up in the fashion of a really good horse.
The race was run at a good fast tempo and he still looked like he was on a learning curve hanging badly in the latter stages.
With SMS’s record of giving good horses time and them improving beyond belief I’d watch what you are promising to do here.
GH goes for the Great Voltiguer at York next month, a race SMS has won several times with the likes of Hard Top, Sacrament and Air Marshall who all then ran in the St Leger.
Fantastic Light was the odd one out who was really a 10f horse and I believe the GV was a bit shorter then. He did go on to finish 2nd in the King George.
You would expect if Glass Harmonium wins the GV he would head for the St Leger but SMS is mega keen on Harbinger for that and GH probably wouldn’t get the trip.
If GH were to win the GV very impressively who knows where he might end up going and he does like a bit of cut in the ground but SMS has Ask Conduit and Spanish Moon in the Arc.
So it is more likely GH will head stateside like Conduit did if he turns out to be good enough.
You seem to be keen on the filly but you got the wrong one.
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Given how fondly you speak of the Soute yard, Fist, and how often, I merely presumed that your ‘secret weapon’ was housed there.
Obviously I was wrong.
But you’re not trying to claim that it was Sariska, are you?
Does anyone know much about a couple of hourses in the antepost betting for this race. The horses are Byword and Cutlass Bay?
Casual Conquest, Vision D’Etat and Fame And Glory are the 3 on my shortlist. I’ve already backed Fame And Glory @ 12/1, but will leave the other two til later. I’ll never forget the way Casual Conquest bolted up in the Derrinstown last year, and I think everything about the Arc will suit him perfectly. He is overpriced @ 20/1. Vision D’Etat is a horse I love. I’ve backed him on his previous 2 starts this year, and he only ever does just enough. It wouldn’t take much improvement to better last year’s fifth, and I believe he has improved. I think Casual Conquest will be hard to beat, Fame & Glory 2nd, Vision 3rd. Stacelita is very over-rated in my opinion, and I would be surprised if she makes the places. She does not yet deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as Zarkava.
I don’t know where Fabre rates Cutlass Bay in the pecking order, especially following Cavalryman’s GP win.
I think they are middle-of-the-range prospects for the Arc, both him and Cavalryman. Come the Prix Niel we might have a completely different idea on Cutlass Bay though. He’s been put away for awhile (or injured, of which I’m unaware of).
As for Byword, stamina might be his downfall.
Casual Conquest was a bit dissapointing yesterday. What’s more dissapointing though is that he didn’t drift at all. I was hoping for 33s after the race.
As far as I’m aware as a regular follower of French flat racing, Cutlass Bay isn’t injured, and is still aimed at the Arc.
There are some races in which Byword could turn up in August in Deauville, but no news yet on his next assignment.Casual Conquest, Vision D’Etat and Fame And Glory are the 3 on my shortlist.
I’ve already backed Fame And Glory @ 12/1
, but will leave the other two til later.
Same here.
I was browsing the ante post markets prior to the Irish Derby and couldn’t believe Fame and Glory was 12/1 for the Arc.
It was common sense to back him at that point. He looked a certainty in the race and his price for the Longchamp showpiece was always going to contract afterwards.
After his performance in the Derrinstown he looked a colt of the highest order. I always felt that he could develop into a serious Arc horse and his performance at the Curragh comfirmed that assumption.
I will say this, Sea The Stars will not beat Fame and Glory over twelve furlongs again. Fame and Glory is one serious, serious horse.
PS
I refrained from abbreviating Fame and Glory – FAG.
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Casual Conquest was a bit dissapointing yesterday. What’s more dissapointing though is that he didn’t drift at all. I was hoping for 33s after the race.
I wasn’t in the slightest bit disappointed as his trainer warned it was going to happpen before the race.
Cashmans and Corals are going 25’s so you should be able to get 40 quid on. 38 quid with Cahsmans and 2 quid with Corals
I’m absolutely convinced and have been for a couple of weeks that this year’s 3yos are really quite bad. I can’t find any formlines that are actually working out and I’m becoming more and more convinced that an older horse will win the Arc. Look at Golden Sword for goodness sakes. Frozen Fire beat him home. Alwaary could be an exceptional horse for next year, he’s a May foal after all.
The front 3 in the King George have run fantastically but I just wonder if Ask in 3rd will get a slightly softer surface at Longchamp. He’ll also have a much longer straight to produce a turn of foot over and 32s is a good price.
I’m absolutely convinced and have been for a couple of weeks that this year’s 3yos are really quite bad.
I really can’t see how that can be said anymore. Conduit has shown that he’s every bit as good as last year, yet was comprehensively beaten in the Eclipse by a pair of 3-y-os. A strong pace over 10f at Sandown isn’t going to take too much edge off Conduit judged on everything else we’ve seen of him, so I really can’t see any way to deny Sea The Stars and Rip van Winkle at least are top class.
But FWIW, I still fancy an older horse (namely Conduit) at current prices for the Arc.
All I know is that I look at Sariska and behind her I see the 5th in a Group 3 and a horse beaten by Debussy. I look at Fame And Glory and behind him I see Ballydoyle in-mates (none of whom have actually won races bar Derby trials). I look at Ghanaati and behind her I see fillies who have constantly been beaten race after race. I look at MCM and behind him (only just behind) I see a non-stayer and some very average horses.
Yet you choose not to see two truly top-class performances against older horses in the Eclipse? Or to translate that to what that pair achieved against their own generation?
Not at all, I just don’t believe for a second that Conduit could run anything like his best over 1m 2f when he has enough stamina for 1m 6 1/2f.
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It’d be like a Derby winner having the pace to win the 2000 Guineas, wouldn’t it? It’s not like that’s happened recently.
Wait a minute…
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