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Not at all, I just don’t believe for a second that Conduit could run anything like his best over 1m 2f when he has enough stamina for 1m 6 1/2f.
Now correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t Conduit’s best performance come over 12f around a sharp American circuit, on fast ground?
If that’s the case, I’d be fascinated to know how you can’t envisage the same horse running "anything like his best" over Sandown’s stiff 10f, off a fierce gallop?
So you’re saying that every horse is capable of running to his/her best form over any distance between 5f and 2m 6f?
I accept that Conduit is a very good St. Leger winner, but could you tell me the last St. Leger winner to win a Group 1 over 10f or shorter please? For goodness sakes, we saw Galileo, an exceptional dual-Derby & King George winner, running over 10f in the Irish Champion and still getting beaten.
Equitrack – you have a recurring problem. You take a recent example and then use it as gospel. You’ve done it many times before and you’ve done it again now. I’m sure you’re well aware that connections have had 2 opportunities to run him over the trip since and they’ve decided against running. I’m also sure you’re well aware that their main target for the rest of the season is a Group 1 over 10f, not a Group 1 over 12f in France.
And between 1995 and 2008, 11 Guineas winners ran in the Derby and only 2 were placed.
Yeats’ record at Group level over 12f – 196
Yeats’ record at Group level over 14f – 421
Yeats’ record at Group level over 16f – 1711
So bar a handicap in Australia, Yeats is unbeaten at Group level over 2m.
Yet he has just a 33% record over 12f and 14f. And 1 of them was a race Fallon stole from the front off a slow gallop.
2 furlongs and 4 furlongs extra/shorter make a hell of a lot of difference.
Look at Golden Sword for goodness sakes. Frozen Fire beat him home.
.Golden Sword beat frozen Fire by 5 length with Look Here in between.
Sorry for some reason someone told me Frozen Fire was the first Ballydoyle horse home. The point still stands, he was beaten by 8 lengths. We have to assume that he improved since the Irish Derby (he’s a late-April foal) and therefore based purely on that Fame and Glory is a fair way behind the front 3.
Fame And Glory was hands and heels beating him, I think he has to be in the mix and has a chance I would think, the price hardly reflects the % of him winning but he is a main contender for me.
So you’re saying that every horse is capable of running to his/her best form over any distance between 5f and 2m 6f?
Don’t be a clown- read my post again and I think you’ll find I suggested that a horse whose best form has come over a sharp 12f on fast ground should be capable of something near their best over a stiff, well-run 10f. Such ridiculous stretching of what’s been put to you only discredits your argument.
Oh, and another thing:
Equitrack – you have a recurring problem. You take a recent example and then use it as gospel.
Yeats’ record at Group level over 12f – 196
Yeats’ record at Group level over 14f – 421
Yeats’ record at Group level over 16f – 1711
So bar a handicap in Australia, Yeats is unbeaten at Group level over 2m.
Yet he has just a 33% record over 12f and 14f. And 1 of them was a race Fallon stole from the front off a slow gallop.
2 furlongs and 4 furlongs extra/shorter make a hell of a lot of difference.
Come on, you’re better than that, surely?
Elie-Lellouche trained and highly-touted
Aizavoski
is running in the Prix Ridgway at Chantilly today. The horse didn’t go left-handed last time in St Cloud and came back slightly injured according to his trainer. Wasn’t that far off Investissement and Three Bodies, the latter of which he meets again today.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see him win comfortably and go on to better things, i.e. one of the Arc preps.Elie-Lellouche trained and highly-touted
Aizavoski
is running in the Prix Ridgway at Chantilly today. The horse didn’t go left-handed last time in St Cloud and came back slightly injured according to his trainer. Wasn’t that far off Investissement and Three Bodies, the latter of which he meets again today.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see him win comfortably and go on to better things, i.e. one of the Arc preps.Disappointing once again. Time to forget about him I guess
"Friggo":2j689s3q wrote:
So you’re saying that every horse is capable of running to his/her best form over any distance between 5f and 2m 6f?
Don’t be a clown- read my post again and I think you’ll find I suggested that a horse whose best form has come over a sharp 12f on fast ground should be capable of something near their best over a stiff, well-run 10f. Such ridiculous stretching of what’s been put to you only discredits your argument.
Yeah sorry that was silly of me, I take that bit back.
Oh, and another thing:
Equitrack – you have a recurring problem. You take a recent example and then use it as gospel.
Yeats’ record at Group level over 12f – 196
Yeats’ record at Group level over 14f – 421
Yeats’ record at Group level over 16f – 1711
So bar a handicap in Australia, Yeats is unbeaten at Group level over 2m.
Yet he has just a 33% record over 12f and 14f. And 1 of them was a race Fallon stole from the front off a slow gallop.
2 furlongs and 4 furlongs extra/shorter make a hell of a lot of difference.
Come on, you’re better than that, surely?
Serious? Come on, Ask was 4th in the Leger, 6th in the Arc, 3rd in the King George (his best run to date I’m sure you’ll agree), yet he was easily beaten in the Prince of Wales’. Red Rocks 3rd in the Leger, won the BC Turf, yet smashed in the Prince of Wales’ and Irish Champion. Several Leger winners have been successful over 12f as well – Milan, Silver Patriarch, Mutafaweq, Scorpion, Sixties Icon – yet they either failed badly over 10f or didn’t even run over 10f. Even Youmzain, winner of the Bahrain Trophy over 13f, runner-up in 2 Arcs, a King George, countless other top 12f Group 1 races – never run over 10f since breaking into Group 1s (ran in the extended 10f Tatts but never a bare 10f like the Eclipse or PoW).
I fully accept Conduit is a better horse over 12f than 14 1/2f but IMO suggesting he can show his true colours over 10f as well is ridiculous.
I think we’re losing sight of the original argument here, which stemmed from this:
Not at all, I just don’t believe for a second that Conduit could run anything like his best over 1m 2f when he has enough stamina for 1m 6 1/2f.
Now, if I may make myself clear, I don’t think Conduit ran
right
up to his best in the Eclipse, and if you look back you’ll find I’ve never stated as much- if I had, the two 3-y-os would be comparable to anything seen this side of Dancing Brave. I took offence at the assertion that Conduit is incapable of running "anything like his best" over 10f, which IMO he did at Sandown (close enough to have been right there in last year’s Eclipse, say).
I’m not into ratings on the flat but I’d say that Conduit ran a good 4 lengths below his best at Sandown. I think Tartan Bearer would have beaten him comfortably. At least we’re in agreement that he didn’t run to his best and let’s leave it at that otherwise we’ll be going around in circles.
I’m not into ratings on the flat
As luck would have it, this post is about ratings!
Just read in today’s Weekender that Sariska will be going Yorkshire Oaks, Vermeille, Arc.
Caused me to ponder whether she has been the most impressive horse this season.
I was wondering whether any of the people who keep their own ratings would be willing to divulge those for the top middle-distance performers.
To get the ball rolling, these are the RPRs
12-13f Horse 10-11f
127 Conduit
126 Fame And Glory
125 Tartan Bearer
124 Ask
124 Sea The Stars 131
124 Youmzain
123 Duncan
123 Sariska
122 Bronze Cannon
121 Look Here
120 Alwaary
120 Eastern Anthem
120 Golden Sword
120 Masterofthehorse
120 Purple Moon
120 Spanish Moon
119 Cavalryman
Rip Van Winkle 129
Deep Sky 124
Vision D’Etat 124
Casual Conquest 123
Never On Sunday 123
Presvis 122
Stacelita 122
Twice Over 122
Le Havre 121Sariska will get a 1.5kg sex allowance, so she will be beaten about 1/2 – 3/4 of a length by Conduit.
Le Havre 121 and Stacelita 122, i don’t think so !!!!!!! Now i don’t compile ratings or bother with any of that caper, but there’s no way those two should be at the bottom of that pile !
The ratings indicated what they have done, rather than what they are capable of.
I’ve noted your earlier post about Le havre being retired.
By the way, Stacelita is a Nazi horse – her 8th dam is Schwarzgold, who is considered Germany’s best ever horse, and winner of the 1940 Deutsches Derby by 10 lengths.
Le Havre 121 and Stacelita 122, i don’t think so !!!!!!! Now i don’t compile ratings or bother with any of that caper, but there’s no way those two should be at the bottom of that pile !
Oh I strongly disagree. I mean I don’t rate the current 3yos, but this season’s French lot are comfortably the worst since I’ve been punting. Shocking.
Westphalia’s done what since? Smashed into 5th by Lord Shanakill in the Jean Prat. And what did Lord Shanakill do in the Sussex?
Beheshtam? Obliterated in the GP de Paris. Calvados Blues? See Westphalia. Vesuve? Beaten by Debussy ffs. Drumbeat couldn’t beat a pacemaker, Glamstar’s been murdered in 2 Listed races, Guest Ville beaten in a Group 3 and see Beheshtam for Wajir’s latest effort.
As for Stacelita? Well the 3rd was beaten in a Group 3, the 4th finished last in the German Oaks and the 5th won a Group 3 by a short-head.
I will really be shocked if a 3yo wins the Arc this year. The door’s wide open for Conduit, Vision d’Etat and Ask.
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