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At the moment Tamarinbleu looks to have plenty in his favour, especially the weights. Can’t have Deep Purple I’m afraid, don’t think he is a 3 miler….
Thanks Imperial
I thought he had ridden twice at Cheltenham. More experience would be handy, especially over the hurdles course…..
A monster of a clash this early on in the season. Surprised Nicky Henderson is heading to Ireland with Binocular. Must be plenty of options for him over here?
Binocular needs some top class race experience, if he has strengthened up as reported then its time to take the cotton wool off!! Get more runs into him, let him learn from his mistakes….
I have no doubt Brian O’Connell is a decent jock and will only get better with time. It is not his talent I am questioning but his experience. The rough and tumble of the Festival opener will be quite an eye opener for someone with little (any?) experience of jumping round the demanding Cheltenham circuit. He may of course gain some experience at Prestbury Park before March……..
Undoubtedly Dunguib is an exciting prospect but the 5/2 on offer by some firms is, at this stage, laughable. As quite a few people have probably already stated, I would want 5/2 about him turning up fit and well come March. Remember, Cousin Vinny started as a hot fav in the Supreme Nov’s last year and got turned over, also with an inexperienced jockey on board. If this horse is as good as they think then they need one of the top jocks on board……
Noble Alan runs today in the 3.25 at Aintree. Potential Arkle contender? Very impressive on his debut but this is tougher. Still the one to beat today………
Seem to remember she was well talked up for the Irish National, started 9-1, stayed on without troubling the winner in 5th. She isn’t the most stoutly bred animal in the world but obviously has some talent about her…
Pomme Tiepy has fell once an unseated once. Both times when in contention.
Agree that she does not seem a likely Aintree sort, maybe clutching at straws with this one….
Very in-depth reporting, I’m impressed.
Quws Law is a horse I am keen on. I see his run at Kelso as a pipe opener on unsuitable ground, once the rain comes he will be more at home. As you mentioned, Ayr is his track so any entry he holds there will be of major interest. There is scope for improvement from him this season as he is still rated below his hurdles mark over fences.
Generally horses like going between other horses, so regardless of the ground it may have been the best option anyway. Hindsight is great though….
No, I don’t actually consider the Howard Johnson operation to be of a poor standard. In recent years the have trained many top class horses such as Grey Abbey, Inglis Drever, Tidal Bay, Arcalis, No Refuge and Lord Transcend, to name but a few. Admittedly a couple of these did not sustain their form but there are 4 Cheltenham winners in that list alone.
It could be that some horses from the flat just do not take to hurdles, regardless of who trains them. This is not always something that is evident before the owners buy them.
I use Dosage ratings as one of my analysis tools and looking at his figures suggests he has too much inherited speed for the Arkle. I’m aware his form is predominantly over further but that doesn’t change the fact he has a lot of inherited speed in his stamina. This does not necessarily point to a non-stayer but it does point to his Dosage Profile not fitting that of previous Arkle winners.
Howard Johnson didn’t exactly ruin Inglis Drever!
Red Moloney basically doesn’t like to scrap and his jumping can let him down on occasions. He is obviously a talented animal but now out of the comfort of the novice ranks it looks like he may well struggle. Where they go from today is anybody’s guess…..
No problem for Catch Me today, however, I do not see him as an Arkle contender.
Too much inherited speed in his pedigree for an Arkle winner (I know the Arkle is 2 miles but trust me you can have too much speed).
Like Sizing Europe, he should mop up some of the Irish novice chases but I would be surprised if they take any of the top novice chases this side of the water.
Fame and Glory is simply not a 1m2f horse. His breeding gave him little chance today. I had a quick look (after the race) at the Dosage Ratings of previous winners and Fame and Glory was nowhere near the profile of a champion stakes winner. If they keep him in training next season they should be looking at 1m4f +. Could be a possible replacement for Yeats next year?
He may well be miles better than the rest of the field but he must have been trained to peak at Longchamp, with the Champions Stakes as an afterthought. Can he still be near his peak? Will the pacemaker eventually pay off for him? An ordinary renewal but one that is causing split opinions………..