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A statue is definitely in order for old Popeye.
Don’t think any of us will forget the image of him charging up the hill to his 3rd World Hurdle victory.
His crazy stable lass just added to the greatness of this horse –
"Whats that coming over the hill is it a monster, its INGLIS DREVER"We will miss you Popeye, take it easy in equine heaven.
Maljimar is starting to look a touch quirky. Either that or it starts to panic when A P McCoy comes chasing after it jumping the last at Cheltenham!!
Old Benny is certainly one to keep an eye on when he returns to the track. I would imagine A King would be happy for him to gain fitness on the racetrack, whilst all the time keeping his hcp mark the same and the horse gaining vital experience.
He ran a fine race in the ’08 Scottish National which is encouraging for the Aintree version.
Old Benny is interesting.
The Alan King inmate was young enough when he got injured that it shouldn’t have affected him to much. May have been a blessing in disguise in some bizarre way….
The 4 miler is an excellent shout.
Much more suited to that race than the RSA.
Early days yet but goes in the ‘Festival 4 miler notebook’….
I do not see Gullible Gordon as a potential RSA winner. His breeding does not suit the profile of a likely RSA champion. Although jumping impressively at Chepstow he did take a chance at a couple of fences, not something he will want to be doing at Prestbury Park.
Regards
Ben
Looked a weak renewal this year. The winner looks the sort to do well over fences when he is sent over them.
You can find Sea The Stars 5 generation pedigree here –
http://www.pedigreequery.com/sea+the+stars
Regards
I wouldn’t say ignore it.
I don’t look at Dosage just as a tool to determine if a horse would stay a certain distance. I also use it to see if a horse is suited to a particular race; that includes track, typical going, class of race as well as distance.
The Arc had fairly robust Dosage trends and STS was a Dosage buster. In all honesty STS probably has so much class there isn’t much that could stop him.
Interesting theory regarding 10f horses and the bends. May be something in that although it is quite a demanding straight at Longchamp, a non stayer would likely struggle.
Good evening Gerald
The way Dosage looks at pedigree (and I agree with this view) is that past the 4th generation the influence of any stallions is not strong enough to have an effect on the foal. Like humans, the further down the bloodline an ancestor is, the less the effect they have. We could look "behind the numbers" all day, although you are correct in that not every statistic should be taken at face value.
You do raise a valid point with regards to the Conduit Mare Profile. My book is not stating that Dosage is the be all and end all of trend analysis, merely just another angle.
Regards
First things first; Hold my hands up time.
Sea the Stars is the best horse I have ever seen in the flesh, of that there is no question. The way he dispatched of the opposition on Sunday was magical and is fully deserved of all the praise that is bestowed upon him. When I saw him sweating in front of my eyes I really thought it was a race too far.
He had plenty against him in the Arc (including his Dosage rating) but in winning in the manner he did he showed how far ahead of the current crop he really is.
When a true great like STS comes along most form, statistics and trends angles can be tossed aside.
A superstar colt, regardless of any rating he may be given, I was privileged to be track side at Longchamp on Sunday.
Regards
Ben Aitken
Some excellent points being raised on this thread.
I would like to state that I think Sea The Stars is an outstanding horse and possibly the best flat horse of
my
generation, regardless of what happens to him on Sunday. I am in no way trying to knock the animal. The way I look at races does lead me to believe however that the Arc does not look to be the race for him. I will be the 1st to hold my hands up if he proves me wrong.
Over The creek almost has the Dosage rating of a potential National winner, I could argue for and against him, it would be foolish to rule him out based on his breeding alone. All depends on how he returns from his lay-off.
Gerald
From the list you supplied these 5 have tried distances in excess of 3m2f –
Darkness
– p-p-13
Battlecry
– 16th
Harmony Brig
– 5th (by 65 lengths)
Sound Accord
– pu
Whitford Don
– u-p-p-p
I may have missed some of the other horse’s runs at marathon trips but the 5 mentioned above make for pretty grim reading.
I look at breeding and genetics in a slightly different way than maybe it has been viewed in the past. It is my opinion that the way a horse has been genetically built, i.e. who its parents are, has an effect on how a horse will perform under certain conditions at certain tracks in certain races. Now obviously Cappa Bleu is already a Gold Cup course and distance winner but it is highly likely that he had a massive class advantage over the rest of the Foxhunters field. He is highly
unlikely
to have any class advantage over the Gold Cup field and looking at his breeding suggests to me that he is not a Gold Cup winner in waiting.
Well done on Max Bygraves, looks one to keep on the right side of for the time being.
Being a man who has just released a book based around the Dosage theory I feel I should add my tuppence worth to your last comment.
Judged on Dosage ratings, Character Building is an unlikely winner. His profile leans too much on the speed side for him to be considered a serious contender. I personally would not be including him in my calculations.
I also think he is a tricky ride and needs to be produced on the line and coaxed and cajoled through a race. Not ideal when tackling the national fences.
Equitrack
I realise that the slow pace at Epsom was designed for Rip Van Winkle but it in fact not only played to the hands of STS but it also put pay to the chances of Fame and Glory. The point I am trying to make here is that O’Brien needs to concentrate on what his own runners are doing rather than what someone else’s horse is doing. I agree the tactics employed may not have hindered his own runners that much but they certainly played into the hands of Kinane and STS.
Ouija Board herself was relatively speedily bred for a 1m2f/4f horse but she did gain some stamina influences from her Dam’s side, the same cannot be said about STS. It is my feeling that there may be other runners in the Arc field that are more suited to the Longchamp 1m4f than superstar colt Sea The Stars.
