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Below are 14 horses who having reviewed hundreds of races, and referring to notes I made last season, I believe are fairly handicapped to strike this season. Some are most exposed than others, even a few maiden handicappers in the mix. I don’t plan on backing them blindly, although I would still be hopeful that they will produce a level stakes profit.
I’ve also picked out a novice hurdler and chaser that I’m looking forward to seeing, and finally i’ve picked out a horse in each of the 3 main Cheltenham races that in my opinion are big prices now before the season begins in earnest.The Shy Man – Only a six year old, and was campaigned rather strangely last season. A fair novice, winning a couple of times, last seasons chasing campaign wasn’t quite so fruitful. However this has resulted in a mark of 115, which I’m sure he can exploit. To my eye, he wants 3m+ on ground no worse than good to soft. He ran a couple of creditable races last season over 2/2m4f on soft ground, but he looked much more at home when encountering faster conditions. The handicapper can’t raise him for disposing of a weak field on his final start, and although still technically a novice, he should be up to winning a handicap or two from his lenient starting mark this term,
Dippy Duck – Only rated 70 and still a maiden, but she has shown enough on occasion to suggest she will win a race. A change of tactics may be required to do so however. Connections seem to persist on either leading, or lying handy, yet this mare travels well through her races and holding her up for a late run might change her fortunes. She seems to stay 2m4f but has enough pace for 2m and is one to watch in selling handicap hurdle grade.
Himba – Nick Gifford is a trainer I like, but I don’t think he’s always got it right with this horse thus far. He travels and jumps well in the main, and appears to be a specialist 2 miler, he won twice over the minimum trip last season, and yet for the most part he was campaigned over further. Because of this, I think off a mark of around 90, there is still some mileage in him, and I would hope that over 2m, he might be able to pick up a couple more low grade handicaps this season.
Kafamber – From the Edwin Tuer stable, this 5 year old mare had 3 runs over hurdles last season, following 4 bumper runs, and showed signs of promise on more than one occasion. The stables horses tend to improve over time, and she looks just the type to do so. The handicapper can’t give her a mark higher than 90, and from that range, she should have every opportunity to pick up a novice handicap, perhaps a mares only over 2m/2m4f.
Thedeboftheyear – After 2 moderate first efforts, she ran way above expectations in a hot novice hurdle at Lingfield, she then followed that up by beating a couple of above average types at Exeter very easily. She looked like she had, had enough for season when beaten on her final start, and went unsold at the sales for £18.000. If she remains in the care of Mr Down this season, she looks likely to improve again, and she still pulls too hard in her races, and she may well develop into a very useful staying handicapper, I would think she is going to be better off in 0-140’s off a lightweight, than shouldering top weight against lesser opposition.
Max Bygraves – He won twice last year, and if he remains over hurdles, he should have another profitable campaign. He started off winning off a mark of 85 at Kelso over 2m, and finished by winning over 2m5f at Ludlow off of 100. He posted good efforts in between at Kempton and Cheltenham and held his form well. He was always staying on well over 2m and the extra distance at Ludlow seemed to suit him well. There is every reason to think he will stay 3m and off a mark in the low 100’s, he should be up to winning a few more this season (he has the size to jump fences, so should he go chasing, he might still be one to side with, if going straight into a novice handicap)
Chord – Trained by Donald McCain, a 5 year old, who is still a maiden over hurdles. He had a decent first season as a juvenile hurdler, running the smart Songe close on two occasions, and he was thought good enough to run at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. As often happens, he struggled in his second season last year, and after running respectively a couple of times, he turned in a very poor (looked reluctant) effort when dropped into a seller on his final start. That was on firm ground, so he can be forgiven that, and he is now dangerously well-handicapped. He wouldn’t have to be at his best to win off around a 100, and as he has gone well fresh in the past, first time out may be the time to catch him.
Patman Du Charmil – He had a good time of it during the 07/08 season, and started favourite for his first start last season at Cheltenham, but he broke a blood vessel that day, and the rest of the campaign was a disaster. If, and it is a fairly big “if”, he is over his problems, and is ready to go, he will surely be able to take advantage of a mark in the low 120’s this season. He won over 3m1f as a novice, but has been campaigned over shorter since, a return to 3m might help his jumping, which can be a bit sketchy at times. He has gone well fresh in the past, and like many from the Twiston-Davies stable, he might be one to catch first time up this season.
Our Hero – Strapping gelding by Oscar Schindler who is definitely worth keeping an eye on this season. He first run was behind the very useful Mad Max at Newbury, where he was far from disgraced. He then made hard work of winning at long odds-on at Market Rasen, and the second has since confirmed herself a decent type. He was ultimately a little disappointing on his final couple of starts at Chepstow, but on his penultimate start in particular, there were again signs that he is above average. A mark of 118 looks very workable, especially as a step up to 3m should bring about further improvement, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he made up into a contender for the pertemps final at the festival, providing he doesn’t go chasing this season.
Briery Star – She is still a maiden, but that should change this season. Despite pulling too hard, she ran very well behind Danny Zuko and Western Whisky at Haydock, before finishing second on ground that may have been too firm over an inadequate 2m at Hexham. The ground was again on the firm side for her final start at Fakenham, where she didn’t perform to expectations. A mark of 89 looks lenient if she can reproduce the Haydock form, and a low grade handicap should certainly be within her compass over 2m4f+ on ground no firmer than good.
Seven Stars – This one started life with Brian Meehan on the flat, and the fact that he started at only 5/1 for his second start at Sandown shows he was obviously thought to be capable enough. It would appear he was beset by injury problems, which culminated in him fetching just £3,500 at the sales a few months later. He showed on his few starts over hurdles, that given an injury free run, he has enough ability to pick up a race or two, and the handicapper hasn’t been too harsh by giving him a mark of 94. A 0-100 on decent ground at around 2m4f should see him competitive.
Halfway Cut – A 7 year old who is still a maiden but has more than enough ability to pick up a race. He started life in Ireland and produced a couple of decent efforts on soft ground in big fields. His form has been a bit hit and miss in this country, all his best efforts again on soft ground. A strong travelling individual, he is now on a mark from which he can be competitive after a couple of poor runs on fast ground at the end of the season. 2 miles on soft ground appear ideal, and an ordinary handicap should come his way.
King Diamond – An 8 year old, exposed maiden chaser. Not an obvious inclusion in any list, however the reason for his inclusion, is his current handicap mark. He’s dropped from a mark in the high 80’s to one in the low 70’s in the space of a few runs, the last 2 being over trips he doesn’t seemingly stay. It seems reasonable to assume that he should now be capable of winning over the minimum trip. He acts on fast and soft going, and has gone well first time out in the past, a 0-90 should be within his grasp this season, he would be particularly interesting around an easy course, such as Ludlow or Sedgefield.
Quiver Hill – Another from the Twiston-Davies stable. On his first 2 starts he filled the runners-up spot, but was unlucky to come up against 2 above average recruits in Vivona Hill and Clay Hollister. He than showed good battling qualities when just edging home in soft ground at Warwick, in what was a decent novice. His final start was disappointing as he finished down the field to Ogee. From a starting mark of 120, the handicapper has given him every chance. With only four starts under his belt, you would imagine there is plenty more to come, and if remaining over hurdles, it would be surprising if a race or two didn’t come his way.
[u:eo7t6umj]Novice Hurdler to follow:[/u:eo7t6umj]
Titus Andronicus – He’s been purchased at the sales for £70,000 by Ben De Haan. He won his only outing in a bumper at Market Rasen by a distance. The horses he beat were only modest, but by no means without ability. He travelled well that day, quickened up turning in, and galloped all the way to the line. He’s not the biggest, an out and out hurdler, and even at £70,000, connections may have a bargain on their hands. He probably won’t be much of a price first time up in an ordinary novice, but if he wins that well, he might be worth taking a price about for Cheltenham, as given his small stable, he might be overpriced, he could be very good.
[u:eo7t6umj]Novice Chaser to follow:[/u:eo7t6umj]
Quick Will – 5 year old gelding trained by James Ewart. He has shown a couple of times over hurdles that he has plenty of ability, most notably when second at Musselburgh over 2m4f in a 0-135. It was a little surprising that he ended his season by running on fast ground, as he looks to need some cut, given his pronounced action. He is apparently going novice chasing this term. He’s related to My Will and looks the type to at least pick up a couple of ordinary events in the north over 2m4f+
ANTE POST
Champion Hurdle
Starluck was available at 300 on Betfair just a couple of weeks ago, admittedly not for much money, his price has since come down to around 100, which I still think is far too big. Having watched the triumph hurdle back a couple of times, it’s clear that Starluck wasn’t really stopping up the hill, the others just stayed on that bit stronger than him. He didn’t have a hard time of it last year, with just 5 outings, 3 of which he won comfortably, and it’s not unreasonable to think he could improve another 7lb, which would put him in the picture. I think it’s fair to say that Cheltenham isn’t his ideal track, but another year on his back will help, and at worst, I think backing him at 3 figure odds will at least allow you to trade out, given that his intended first start over hurdles is due to be at Kempton, for what is usually a fairly weak event. If he comes through that successfully, his odds are likely to half. However you look at it, he shouldn’t be the price he currently is.
Champion Chase
This obviously revolves around the brilliant Master Minded. I hope I’m wrong, but I do have my suspicions as to whether or not he will be able to recapture his best form again this season. It seems unfair to knock his second champion chase victory, but he wasn’t going away from them up the hill, and he does seem to have become a little lazy. This was emphasised at Punchestown, where he just scrambled home. At even money you need to look elsewhere. Most peoples idea of elsewhere probably wouldn’t be Cornas. Nick Williams seven year old won first time of asking over fences at Ludlow, in what was no more than an ordinary contest. He then went on to split the useful pair of Gauvain and Free World at Sandown. In the Arkle, he stumbled 2 out which cost him a lot of momentum, and he ended up being beaten 11 lengths into seventh behind Forpadydeplasterer. He ran a little flat on his final start at Aintree behind Kalahari King, but was still only beaten 10 lengths. Given that his Cheltenham and Aintree conquerors are priced between 16 & 20/1, he looks to be worth a small interest at the current 300 which is currently available. He may end up being more of a Grand Annual type, but his is still relatively unexposed and he travelled so well until that mistake in the arkle, that he may be better than a good handicapper.
Gold Cup
After the foxhunters at the festival, I thought that talk of Cappa Bleu as a potential gold cup horse was a little far fetched. But having since watched that race several times over the summer, and having seen a video of one of his point wins, I’m beginning to be converted. He looked tired over the last at Cheltenham, but he actually put a surge in up the hill and did end up winning quite comfortably. That was his first start under rules, and the time was respectable. Now with Evan Williams, he looks sure to improve a fair bit more. He will of course need to, the second in the foxhunters is a useful horse (Turthen), but he would be 2 stone and more behind an average gold cup winner, even at his best. He is due to start his campaign in the Charlie Hall, a good performance there would see his odds tumble. I would love to see Denham back to his best, but there have to be major doubts about that happening, and it would take a monumental effort for Kauto Star to win for a third time. Cooldine would be the other one I would be looking towards, but at 50’s Cappa Bleu looks good value as things stand.
I’d love to see Ben de Haan do well with Titus Andronicus; we met him at one of our racing club meetings last year, and he really takes care of his horses. Would also be good to see Kim Bailey have a really good horse this year.
Ben, on breeding Desert Orchid should have struggled to win anything!
Anyway i’ll try and keep these up to date when one of them is running, and will keep a running profit/loss total, and the first is today (just about) at Market Rasen where Max Bygraves is in a handicap on his debut of fences. I think he’ll need further than the 2m2f, but i’ll be interested to see how he takes to fences, and hope he shows he has races in him this season. I won’t be backing him, but it’s not beyond the realms of possibilty that he could make a successful debut.
I agree, Dessie’s breeding was not that of a Gold Cup/King George/Irish National winner, but he was a freak! He was a one off and there are always exceptions to the rules. What Dessie did have was bags of speed in his pedigree and he utilised this to the max by front running his way to a majority of his victories.
Good luck today with Max Bygraves.
Ben, I wasn’t meaning to be funny. Just personally, i don’t really take much notice of the breeding once a horse has attained a certain level of form.
Ok it may well be all downhill from now on, but thats 1 runner from the 2 lists and 1 winner, Max Bygraves doing the business in good style at Market Rasen at 7/2 (sp). I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go in again this season.
+£3.50
I look at breeding and genetics in a slightly different way than maybe it has been viewed in the past. It is my opinion that the way a horse has been genetically built, i.e. who its parents are, has an effect on how a horse will perform under certain conditions at certain tracks in certain races. Now obviously Cappa Bleu is already a Gold Cup course and distance winner but it is highly likely that he had a massive class advantage over the rest of the Foxhunters field. He is highly
unlikely
to have any class advantage over the Gold Cup field and looking at his breeding suggests to me that he is not a Gold Cup winner in waiting.
Well done on Max Bygraves, looks one to keep on the right side of for the time being.
Well done to Kim Bailey! He’s got a horse running in the Pardubika this year as well.
King Diamond goes tomorrow (Sunday) at Uttoxeter. The concern really is the trip, I thought he’d pick up a race over a sharp 2m off his low mark, but 2m5f first time out seems a rather strange move in my opinion. My guess is he’ll be prominent for a fair way before fading before turning in. Just looking for signs of promise, can’t back him over the trip. Although I will deduct a pound for the purposes of this.
King Diamond ran as expected today, which is very well, but he didn’t stay. He must now surely go back to 2m, and he will win one of those.
After today the 2 lists show +£ 0.50 to a level £ stake
King Diamond runs today at Wetherby. I’m not sure what Mr Jordan is doing running over 2m6f, I’m open to being wrong, but i’m adamant he’s an out and out 2 miler, will probably cruise into the straight and then weaken rapidly
Well to be fair he probably wouldn’t have won over 2 miles today either, but the trip wasn’t a help. Given some of the mishaps today at Wetherby, at least he got round in one piece, He might struggle to win a race, but if he turns up in the 2 mile selling handicap chase at Plumpton next April, then watch out!!!
-£0.50 to a level £1 stake on both lists, a few entered for the weekend, so watch this space.
The Shy Man has been found a decent opportunity and if’s he is fit enough, i think he’ll win. His mark of 115 may be prove to be extremely lenient and i’d only really be worried about Poker De Sivola if he gets his act together over fences.
Patman Du Charmil is in action at Cheltenham, it’s a competitive race, and the prescence of Cossack Dancer doesn’t help, as he’ll no doubt want to make it. Having said that if he recaptures his form, he should be in the mix.
Starluck makes his reappearance tomorrow, and i’m hoping he’ll come up the hill this time, otherwise even the 300 i’ve got for the champion won’t be looking too rosy.The Shy Man departed 4 out, when holding every chance, it was too early to know whether he would have won, but given that the first 3 finished within a length, i’m convinced he would have been bang there. Patman Du Charmil ran much better than at anytime last season, the way he pinged the last suggested he had a bit left, and i’m not sure he was putting it all in up the hill. This was a much improved effort, but he does tend to go well fresh and this run means he might not be much value next time.
-£4.50 (to a level £1 stake) overall combined of the 2 lists at the end of Saturday 17th October.
Very remiss of be to forget about Starluck. Well that was exactly what I was hoping for, a long way to go, but would anyone turn down 300’s now for the champion, I doubt it. He looked a lot stronger today, appears to have done very well over the summer.
Thedeboftheyear goes in the first at Exeter today. It’s not a great race. The unexposed Nicholls horse is the favourite, but I believe this mare will prove to be a 130 horse in time and I shall be disappointed if she doesn’t go very close to winning today, providing she is ready to do so on her seasonal debut.
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