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I really feel he’s O’Brien’s 3yo to follow this season, even if he doesn’t win today.
I feel exactly the same. Regardless of what Steinbeck does today he is a horse to follow for this season from the O’Brien yard..
Really REALLY can’t have Fame and Glory at this level over 1m2f. He simply does not possess the tactical speed to be a star at anything short of 1m4f. In all honesty his breeding suggests that the Ascot Gold Cup would have been a better target this season. If he stays in training next term and can see him being the Ballydoyle cup horse………….
Yeah, the front 4 in the market all have questions to answer but then again most lightly raced 3yo’s do.
XTENSION ticks major boxes for me and as much as I rate Canford Cliffs AND have no doubt that he stays I just can’t have him today. Thats not to say I can’t see him winning but I’m not tempted by the price. XTENSION at 13/2 rates a good bet to me and I expect him to strip much fitter after his English 2000 Guineas re-appearance.
I baked LACDOUDAL in this last season and although he still looks well handicapped I’m not sure he is anywhere near the force of old.
I would love to see him win but he just seems to be struggling to see out his races these days.
I may, however, change my mind once I have properly analysed the race…..
Surprised it took Timmy Murphy so long to decide to ride COD. 1st and 2nd in the last 2 nationals; surely it was a no brainer. Admittedly the stats are against COD but I’m sure jockeys don’t pay much attention to that side of things…..
Very good point. I’m not sure the National course will really suit MDB either.
In all honesty Denman heading to AYR will simply set it up for a lightly weighted up and coming horse down the bottom of the weights (I’m assuming MDB goes the Aintree route).
Notre Pere around the Mildmay course Ben?
He’d be outpaced after two fences. At least he has half a chance of getting soft ground & a galloping/staying track at Punchestown.
Yeah Notre Pere was maybe pushing it a bit IC
Punchestown much more his course.
Still the 5 runners is a poor show.
He does look like a step up in trip will suit him and I do like the horse but he looked a tad ‘flat’ at Cheltenham? Maybe they were just going a bit quick for him in the QMCC but I do have a small niggle in my head that is saying he may just fall below true Grade 1 level (outside of novice races). Time will tell…..
Mon Mome can not win.
I don’t understand. Mon Mome is running off 155. The rule of thumb I use is for the winner to put in a 10lb better performance. Are you saying that Mon Mome can’t run a 165, given that he ran a 161 last year?
I’m not sure if he can run to 165. A lot of people are mentioning his run in the Gold Cup as being ideal prep for this but let me put it this way, if he were to run in the same manner in the National he has no chance. Yes he was finishing strongly but at one point he was so far behind it looked for sure he would be pulled up. If he gets as far behing in the National then he will really struggle to get back into the race…….
For me it has to be SILVER BIRCH. His run in the X Country Chase at Cheltenham was the final piece in the jigsaw for me and watching him bound around from fence to fence and dig deep in the long run for home was just magical. Oh and I also tipped him up to my boss at the time at 50-1!!
Suny Bay’s 2 runner-up spots are also worth a mention, especially his gallant 2nd under a stopping weight behind Earth Summit. I really though he was going to do it over the last couple of fences but the weight told in the end. I always loved watching the grey boy jumping in the National.
Agree with what you guys have said but it’s really disappointing that only 5 go to post don’t you think?
It’s usually Denman and Kauto that scare people off and I think a number of horses have missed a trick here.
Should still be a cracking race but would have loved to see the likes of Barbers Shop, Notre Pere, Killyglen, Planet Of Sound etc line up here…..
Would have thought Betfair Bowl was an obvious target for MDB – what else is going there?
Segal picked Backstage but I really can’t see anything in the formbook that suggests he has the quality to win a National off 11st. Especially if it’s on the soft side.
D Pipe is very much hinting that the National is the target for MDB.
I’m with you on BACKSTAGE. Can’t have him for a number of reasons and as you say he does not strike me as having the quality to win a National. The trainer being a previous winner and making bullish noises about his horse is keeping the price down.
Ch – Young Kenny/Grey Abbey
Hrd – Inglis Drever
Flat – Shamardal/Rakti
I could list plenty more but I would say this lot sit pretty near the top
I think there are enough negatives against the favourite to oppose him, especially at the price. Bookies have been hyping him up and that is never a good thing…..
Diamond Harry doesnt appear to be good enough to me at the very top level for me.
If I were looking outside the top two it would be Citizen Vic for me.
Agree with that. Diamond Harry is a good horse but not good enough for the very top. Does not jump straight enough under pressure for my liking.
I think the likely slower than normal pace will be against ZAYNAR. He would have been better coming off a strong pace and I just cant see where that is going to come from tomorrow.
