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I dont think its as cut and dry as that. I think its a desperatly poor field bar Dunguib, depite what the ratings say. It wouldnt surprise me if Fionegas, second to Dunguib last time, was better than everyone else in this field.
Lets say that Dunguib had never run in bumpers and had won his races his year in normal fashion, i.e. being shaken up and maybe whipped once or twice. So he didnt look like the potental superstar we all think he is.
I still think that on that form, he would be 5/2f
I dont think its as cut and dry as that. I think its a desperatly poor field bar Dunguib, depite what the ratings say. It wouldnt surprise me if Fionegas, second to Dunguib last time, was better than everyone else in this field.
Lets say that Dunguib had never run in bumpers and had won his races his year in normal fashion, i.e. being shaken up and maybe whipped once or twice. So he didnt look like the potental superstar we all think he is.
I still think that on that form, he would be 5/2f
I’ve watched all Dunguib’s hurdle races twice last night, I was especially looking at how he coped in a big field, 17 runners on his debut, no problem that I could see, nor does his sloppy jumping when trying to jump with the handbrake on against Fionegas. I’d agree that Fionegas is as likely as any to be second home on Tuesday, unless Pedlar Cross runs that is, but with that in mind Dunguib’s last run was truly awesome and would surely have made him an Even money shot in The Supreme even if he’d been found unbroken in a field last summer and was an unfancied horse making his NH debut that day
Im so looking forward to that roar and cheer when they send them on there way in the Supreme, an amazing noise and fantastic atmosphere.
Ive just been going through the form for the Supreme, i have 3 horses against the field…
The obvious ones – Dubguib and Get Me Out of Here.
But then i get to General Miller, look at his price and i cant believe he is 20/1, 25/1 in places.
I think the form of beating Ghizao is very strong. Our Lidar ran in that one, but was injured in the race, but General Miller did it well.
It’s also no disgrace losing to Restless Harry, who does look to be some horse.
25/1 is a huge price.
Has course and distance form, and i think he will be in the shake up at the end of the race.
25/1 is a great EW bet.
Well spotted Gaz
Stable 2nd strings are often overlooked and go off at a bigger price then they normally should.
25/1 does look big given course form
Well spotted Gaz
Stable 2nd strings are often overlooked and go off at a bigger price then they normally should.
25/1 does look big given course form
On a similar note I’m not convinced that Ruby has chosen the right one of the Mullins pair in the Supreme Novices.
BSM’s price is artificially short IMO due to him being put up by Pricewise a month or so back. Flat Out has done it well on both his starts over hurdles and Mullins has had a big priced winner of this in the past.
Yeah I’m glad someone else has looked at the General, backed him 10 days ago at 43s, done reverse forecasts with Dunguib + have put him in my placepot and jackpot. Silly price for a CD winner with bags of potential.
I’ve refused to touch Dunguib at odds on,the evens was too much temptation though.
I’ve been sweet on Oscar Whisky for a while and just to confuse things further a friend who has close links to the yard tells me that the Hobbs team think they can go very close now the ground has dried out with Menorah.
Given a stinker by Johnson last time and on ground which he hated maybe this is another to seriously consider.Yeah I’m glad someone else has looked at the General, backed him 10 days ago at 43s, done reverse forecasts with Dunguib + have put him in my placepot and jackpot. Silly price for a CD winner with bags of potential.
I too backed him about 10 days ago, but you must have snaffled the price up before me as I got 36.4! GB / Chelt 16th Mar / Supreme Nov Hrd General Miller Back 10272590535 05-Mar-10
22:24 36 10.00 36.4 05-Mar-10 22:24I think that stepping him up to 2m 4f was a mistake, they have realised that and he comes here with a good e/w chance. His run against Ghizao showed he has the right battling qualities for me.
[quote="Given a stinker by Johnson last time and on ground which he hated maybe this is another to seriously consider.
I was at cheltenham preview last night and Carl Llellwyn suggested that RJ was shaken up after taking a very heavy fall on planet of sound in the race before.
"cheltboy":17z1wsz3 wrote:
I was at cheltenham preview last night and Carl Llellwyn suggested that RJ was shaken up after taking a very heavy fall on planet of sound in the race before.
Very much so.
At least one person,who is very close to the horse,thought he should have given up the rest of his rides that day.
There were some harsh words down in Bilbrook that evening.I’ve been backing Dunguib for the last three months now, so no looking back.
Oscar Whisky could be anything, though, and frightens me just a bit…
Yeah I’m glad someone else has looked at the General, backed him 10 days ago at 43s, done reverse forecasts with Dunguib + have put him in my placepot and jackpot. Silly price for a CD winner with bags of potential.
I too backed him about 10 days ago, but you must have snaffled the price up before me as I got 36.4! GB / Chelt 16th Mar / Supreme Nov Hrd General Miller Back 10272590535 05-Mar-10
22:24 36 10.00 36.4 05-Mar-10 22:24I think that stepping him up to 2m 4f was a mistake, they have realised that and he comes here with a good e/w chance. His run against Ghizao showed he has the right battling qualities for me.
GB / Chelt 16th Mar / Supreme Nov Hrd General Miller Back 10300613519 08-Mar-10
22:30 44 15.00 44 08-Mar-10 22:30That’s me
Look how much money there is to lay him at 33s right now! £18k!
I think General Miller has a much better chance than his odds suggest.
He is my NTF selection for the race and he is one of only 4 in the race that fits the Dosage trends highlighted in my Narrowing the Field Festival release………
Whilst Dunguib is clearly the most likely winner, he is not the most fluent of hurdlers and in a race where many are unexposed and open to improvement, it may be worth looking elsewhere.
His jockey, the promising Barry O’Connell, will have the weight of Irish expectations on his shoulders and it will be interesting to see how he reacts to the immense pressure.
Ireland have a solid record in this race since the turn of the century, taking this prize across the Irish Sea seven times in the last nine years.
Get Me Out Of Here
would surely be favourite in an average renewal of this race. Unbeaten in five starts, he defied inexperience to win the 23-runner Totesport Trophy. They didn’t hang around that day and the experience of those conditions will stand him in good stead here. 6YOs have a gone well in this event and Jonjo O’Neill’s horse is a battle-hardened novice who hurdles well – two attributes the favourite is yet to prove.
The value in the race could lie with
Menorah
. Dispatched the talented Bellvano at Kempton on Boxing Day (winner since), but given a poor ride at Ascot on his latest start when caught late-on. Not the tidiest hurdler at this stage of his career, but travels very strongly and can really quicken.
The value in the race could lie with
Menorah
. Dispatched the talented Bellvano at Kempton on Boxing Day (winner since), but given a poor ride at Ascot on his latest start when caught late-on. Not the tidiest hurdler at this stage of his career, but travels very strongly and can really quicken.
That Kempton race isn’t worth a light in relation to winning this. Bellvano has long been a hype horse and was subsequently unimpressive in landing the odds at Newbury. Despite all the excuses last time (his second disappointing performance in three starts) Menorah pulls too hard and wants a flat track. Rather than displaying a turn of foot I will be very surprised if Menorah doesn’t just capitulate up the hill.
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