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Being a man who has just released a book based around the Dosage theory I feel I should add my tuppence worth to your last comment.
Judged on Dosage ratings, Character Building is an unlikely winner. His profile leans too much on the speed side for him to be considered a serious contender. I personally would not be including him in my calculations.
I also think he is a tricky ride and needs to be produced on the line and coaxed and cajoled through a race. Not ideal when tackling the national fences.
Okay, these are all of Accordion’s progeny who have achieved a RPR of 134+
Horse Damsire [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Dato Star Flair Path [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Flagship Uberalles Oats [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Albertas Run Le Moss [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Accordion Etoile Prince Rupert [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Billyvoddan Pollerton [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Feathard Lady Alzao [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Darkness Strong Gale [/color:1ftjx8ro]
An Accordion Idiots Delight [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Battlecry Orchestra [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Follow The Plan Dominion Royale [/color:1ftjx8ro]
According To John The Parson [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Cornish Sett Denel [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Finger On the Pulse Glacial Storm [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Character Building Roselier [/color:1ftjx8ro]
The Tother One Furry Glen [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Graphic Equaliser High Top [/color:1ftjx8ro]
His Song Damsire Unregistered [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Sir Jimmy Shand Supreme Leader [/color:1ftjx8ro]
According To Pete Full Of Hope [/color:1ftjx8ro]
According To Dick Bob Back [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Forest Pennant Supreme Leader [/color:1ftjx8ro]
French Accordion Prince Rupert [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Montana Slim High Top [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Canary Slim Ballymore [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Harmony Brig Montelimar [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Sound Accord Phardante [/color:1ftjx8ro]
O’Muircheartaigh Celio Rufo [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Clarified Denel [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Holly Tree Bulldozer [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Whitford Don Le Bavard [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Wind Instrument Aristocracy [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Badgerlaw Crash Course [/color:1ftjx8ro]
Hoh Invader Flair Path [/color:1ftjx8ro]You’ll know these horses a lot better than I do. Offhand, I don’t know any that have won at much more than 3m or 3m2f.
Cornish Sett and Badgerlaw have come placed in the Welsh and Midlands Nationals – but that is all they did, they placed and haven’t won.
Gerald
From the list you supplied these 5 have tried distances in excess of 3m2f –
Darkness
– p-p-13
Battlecry
– 16th
Harmony Brig
– 5th (by 65 lengths)
Sound Accord
– pu
Whitford Don
– u-p-p-p
I may have missed some of the other horse’s runs at marathon trips but the 5 mentioned above make for pretty grim reading.
I’ve still got to back Character Building ante post; the first couple of bets that I had this year were Mon Mome and Character Building……I’ve got to stick by him again and very much hope that he gets to the race this year for the sake of his connections. Over the Creek is the one I’m really looking out for..fingers crossed he gets to Aintree this time. Can’t wait for Ben and Kendal Cavalier to pool knowledge; I’m counting my winnings already!
Over The creek almost has the Dosage rating of a potential National winner, I could argue for and against him, it would be foolish to rule him out based on his breeding alone. All depends on how he returns from his lay-off.
I thought I’d reprise some of what I did on the betfair forum last week. Stuff there is transitory, and when a thread falls off the bottom I’m not sure how to access it again.
Dosage allocates points to (prepotent) horses that are designated as Chefs-de-Race. A Sire who is a CdR gets 16 points, a Grandsire 8 points (both paternal and maternal), 3rd generation 4 each and 4th generation 2 each. There are therefore a maximum 16 points available in each generation, and a maximum number of 64 points altogether.
TP stands for Total Points.
There are 5 traits in dosage, ranging from speed to stamina thus:-
Brilliant
Intermediate
Classic
Solid
ProfessionalA CdR’s points can either all be allocated to one trait, or split between two. For example, Northern Dancer is BC, both Brilliant and Classic.
Dosage Index (DI) is simply Brilliant and Intermediate points, plus half of the Classic points, divided by the remainder. I decided to ignore the DI of Grand National winners with fewer than 10 points, as I thought the numbers may be misleading. (In Royal Athlete’s case we are dividing zero by zero!)
TP DI
Horse
(28) 1.15
Hedgehunter
(16) 1.13
Earth Summit
(20) 1.00
Amberleigh House
(20) 1.00
Monty’s Pass
(20) 0.74
Miinnehoma
(12) 0.71
Comply Or Die
(20) 0.67
Bobbyjo
(10) 0.54
Bindaree
(12) 0.33
Papillon
(14) 0.27
Lord Gyllene
(20) 0.25
Silver Birch
(10) 0.25
Numbersixvalverde
(20) 0.18
Rough Quest
(6)
Red Marauder
(4)
Mon Mome
(0)
Royal Athlete
A DI of 1.00 indicates that there is a balance of speed and stamina points. You might not be impressed with a GN winner having as many speed as stamina points, but the thing to bear in mind is that there are far, far fewer stallions exhibiting extreme stamina traits than say 50 or 80 years ago.
Although DI gets all the headlines (mainly due to the once-true rule that Kentucky Derby winners don’t have a DI greater than 3.00), the
Centre of Distribution
is a slightly more accurate measurement of speed versus stamina.
Imagine the five traits of Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional being placed along a see-saw, with values of 2, 1, 0, -1 and -2.
The Centre of Distribution is where the fulcrum, or balancing point is on the see-saw, so that the weights balance on each side.
So, whilst the Dosage Index can range from 0 to infinity, the Centre of Distribution always lies within the range 2 to -2.
CD
Horse
0.25
Earth Summit
0.11
Hedgehunter
0.05
Amberleigh House
0.00
Miinnehoma
0.00
Comply Or Die
-0.15
Bobbyjo
-0.20
Monty’s Pass
-0.30
Bindaree
-0.60
Numbersixvalverde
-0.80
Silver Birch
-0.86
Lord Gyllene
-1.00
Papillon
-1.00
Rough Quest
Red Marauder
Mon Mome
Royal Athlete
So a CD of 0.00 means that the points are centred on Classic, and a CD of -1.00 means that the points are centred on Solid.
So, if we establish a rule that a GN prospect with total points of 10 or greater has to have a DI no greater than 1, and a CD no greater than 0, both Hedgehunter and Earth Summit fall foul of this rule in the past 16 years, with Mon Mome, Red Marauder and Royal Athlete excused boots.
The
Conduit Mare Profile
is a feminine-based attempt to look at stamina-speed traits, I think by looking at the families.
CMP Index
Horse
1.21
Comply Or Die
0.91
Amberleigh House
0.86
Mon Mome
0.85
Hedgehunter
0.75
Royal Athlete
0.70
Red Marauder
0.69
Bobbyjo
0.67
Miinnehoma
0.66
Bindaree
0.63
Monty’s Pass
0.62
Earth Summit
0.59
Numbersixvalverde
0.56
Silver Birch
0.39
Lord Gyllene
0.37
Rough Quest
0.35
Papillon
Only Comply Or Die has a Conduit Mare Profile Index greater than 1, and 12 out of the 16 winners have a CMP Index between 0.55 and 0.95
What amuses me about all this selecting horses as Chefs-de-Race, allocating them traits, working out numbers that then give an idea of the ideal distance for a horse to run at, is that the same thing can be done by using the Stamina Indices of stallions’ progeny.[/color:1q0d1qdz]
These are the numbers for the horses in the betfair GN market. There are lots of horses not currently quoted, the most obvious example being Cloudy Lane.
TP [b:8mulvkxk] DI CD [/color:8mulvkxk] CMPI [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Horse
26 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.68 -0.19 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.43 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Finger Onthe Pulse
22 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.32 0.41 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.29 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] According To John
28 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.15 0.25 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.28 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Flintoff
12 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.71 0.00 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.21 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Comply Or Die
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 4.00 1.10 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.21 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Big Fella Thanks
40 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.58 0.50 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.11 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Ambobo
14 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.75 0.00 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.05 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Black Apalachi
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.67 0.00 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.00 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] A New Story
16 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.29 0.19 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.00 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Irish Raptor
16 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.29 0.44 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.00 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Character Building
12 [b:8mulvkxk] 2.43 0.75 [/color:8mulvkxk] 1.00 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Backstage
18 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.29 -0.61 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.95 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Ice Tea
20 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.35 0.30 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.94 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Russian Around
14 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.47 -0.64 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.91 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Kilbeggan Blade
2 [b:8mulvkxk] N/A N/A [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.91 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] My Will
14 [b:8mulvkxk] 3.67 0.71 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.87 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] King Johns Castle
4 [b:8mulvkxk] N/A N/A [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.86 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Mon Mome
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.43 -0.40 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.86 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Abbeybraney
18 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.25 0.17 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.85 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Cerium
14 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.80 0.36 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.83 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Golden Flight
18 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.20 -1.00 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.83 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Iris de Balme
8 [b:8mulvkxk] N/A N/A [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.80 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Trabolgan
18 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.12 0.22 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.80 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Snowy Morning
22 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.76 -0.09 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.79 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Gone To Lunch
38 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.95 -0.08 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.79 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Jass
12 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.00 0.08 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.79 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Possol
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.86 0.40 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.77 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Hello Bud
20 [b:8mulvkxk] 2.33 0.55 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.76 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Parsons Legacy
14 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.87 0.07 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.76 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Southern Vic
4 [b:8mulvkxk] N/A N/A [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.76 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Notre Pere
8 [b:8mulvkxk] N/A N/A [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.75 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] L’Ami
22 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.47 -0.41 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.75 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Tricky Trickster
20 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.18 -1.20 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.74 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Russian Trigger
16 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.19 -0.94 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.73 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] War Of Attrition
12 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.20 -0.75 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.72 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Oodachee
6 [b:8mulvkxk] N/A N/A [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.69 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Himalayan Trail
24 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.18 0.33 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.67 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Butler’s Cabin
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.18 -0.90 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.67 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Denman
20 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.48 -0.35 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.67 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Offshore Account
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.18 -0.90 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.67 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Silverburn
16 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.68 -0.19 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.67 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Arbor Supreme
30 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.76 -0.07 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.65 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Garde Champetre
16 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.29 0.19 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.65 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Will Be Done
16 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.00 0.00 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.63 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] High Chimes
16 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.52 -0.31 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.62 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Companero
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.00 0.10 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.62 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Preists Leap
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.33 -0.70 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.61 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Coe
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.33 -0.70 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.61 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Killyglen
22 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.20 0.18 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.60 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Crozan
16 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.91 0.50 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.60 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Siegemaster
26 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.33 -0.88 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.59 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Rambling Minster
20 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.25 -0.80 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.56 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Silver Birch
8 [b:8mulvkxk] N/A N/A [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.54 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Hennessy
20 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.60 -0.40 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.52 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] State of Play
12 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.60 -0.33 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.52 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Niche Market
16 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.88 0.06 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.52 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Star De Mohaison
24 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.40 0.13 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.48 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Bothar Na
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.50 0.30 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.48 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Merigo
8 [b:8mulvkxk] N/A N/A [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.48 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Nine De Sivola
10 [b:8mulvkxk] 1.22 0.20 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.45 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Ballyholland
32 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.49 -0.50 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.41 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Irish Invader
14 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.40 -0.71 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.40 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] Morgan Be
12 [b:8mulvkxk] 0.85 0.08 [/color:8mulvkxk] 0.31 [/color:8mulvkxk] [/b:8mulvkxk] BallytrimHave added Irish Invader, War Of Attrition and Jass.
Willie Mullins was rather quick to confirm that Irish Invader and Cloudy Morning would be likely to be aimed at the National next year, after the last one. Irish Invader may stay a bit better if he doesn’t start in such a rush next time, and if he runs in a few more staying chases. I keep on thinking back to an article I read in the Guardian one Saturday morning a couple of decades ago about Graeme Obree, saying how he trained for the one hour time-trial by doing one hour time-trials.
War Of Attrition is due out soon, and given the weight he had last time, it makes sense to aim him at the National.
Jass is probably a bit of a rash bet, as he pulled up last time out, and I don’t know whether he is fit and well. I must say I was influenced by finding out how classily bred he is. Apparently Mary Reveley isn’t too keen on the National, so Keith may have his job cut out getting his mum’s blessing to run either Rambling Minster again or Jass in the big one.
State Of Play £6 @ 55
Russian Trigger £19.90 @ 85.22
Kilbeggan Blade £14 @ 150.36
Preists Leap £4.16 @ 117.69
Ballytrim £10.73 @ 114.04
Iris De Blame £13 @ 137.78
Flintoff £19.41 @ 174.66
Garde Champetre £29.51 @ 91.03
Irish Invader £10.60 @ 100
Parsons Legacy £10.57 @ 102.43
War Of Attrition £8.56 @ 100
Bothar Na £16.99 @ 120
Golden Flight £39.69 @ 125.31
High Chimes £3.99 @ 164.99
Himalayan Trail £26.99 @ 118.67
Merigo £46.15 @ 105.68
Morgan Be £7.97 @ 165.01
Coe £13.11 @ 165.42
Jass £6.51 @ 176.18
Trabolgan £4 @ 240
Star De Mohaison 80p @ 210 [/color:3nyi9ygr]
Drumconvis £24 @ 1 [/color:3nyi9ygr]
£336.64 totaledit: Himalayan Trail is starting to look a dodgy bet, after no one seems to have heard of his new trainer.
Can’t help but feel that Star de Mohaison is going to become Paul Nicholls new Eurotrek! Don’t think he’s as good at bringing horses back as the Pipes. However, does fit the profile of classy RSA winner with dodgy legs. Perhaps he should be moved to Gordon Elliotts.
I looked up Eurotrek for the 09 National.
Was rather amazed by the following: the horse is out for 2 years and 9 months, and then wins at Market Rasen –
07Nov04 Market Rasen (25Sft ,RPR125)
He is a class act and one of our better long-distance novice chasers. He will have a good break before he returns to action as he has been absent a long time, but he will be definitely be given a SunAlliance Chase entry. – Daniel Skelton [assistant trainer]In actual fact, the horse runs a fortnight later, is pulled up, and doesn’t run again for another year!
Maybe Skelton should take over the licence?
Dan Skelton was at out NH preview a few years ago; my notes say, Kauto Star, better left handed; Neptune Collonges, Grand National next year. No King George wins for Kauto, then……
Yes, but Kauto’s best ratings HAVE been lefthanded (Cheltenham Gold Cup), or is that just a horsey version of political correctness? (Need to go and check actual ratings apportioned.)
After all, Findlay scoffed at the idea of running Denman in the King George, because it wouldn’t suit him. Well, Denman can’t be all that good then.
Can’t blame Skelton for Neptune Collonges – he ain’t in charge.
Sorry, usually do a bit of research before posting. Just posting off the top of my head at the moment. (4 litres of cider.)
Must say it was a fascinating evening and Dan was a real good bloke. Wish he’d come to our preview again this year! Mr Hales always comes to our Cheltenham preview evening as well and is totally honest about his horses chances.In fact, should be hearing soon about who’s turning up this year.
Just read that Roll Along has gone to NTD along with his old mate Carl Llewellyn; starting off with the Charlie Hall but with a possible aim of the National [another reason to go to NTD]. Really fancied him for this years race [Gold Cup v. good National trial imo]. Will definately risk an ante post bet on him if I can get a price from somewhere.
Old Benny is interesting.
The Alan King inmate was young enough when he got injured that it shouldn’t have affected him to much. May have been a blessing in disguise in some bizarre way….
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