2010 Grand National portfolio

Some good news. Went into work this morning, but as we are in the middle of moving from one workshop to another, there were quite a few people sitting around doing nothing. Told the blueshirt I was going home. That means that I’ve got the whole day to create a new Grand National spreadsheet, as the previous one disappeared this week when I turned the computer off when the spreadsheet hadn’t finished closing down. I’m not too worried about the missed overtime, as I think I’ve already earned about £250 in overtime this month in the past fortnight.

The main factors I’m interested in are
i) won a chase BEYOND 3 miles
ii) won a chase worth £20k+
iii) run this season

I’ll collect other data as well, but will reassess the situation at 10am, because I’d like to have the basic data for all the entries by close of play today.

I’ve got a haggis in the fridge, so I’ll have a break at 12 to go to Tesco to buy some swedes and turnips.

I know she ain’t a redhead, but that Susanna Reid on BBC1 is absolutely gorgeous. Thankfully, her hair has grown out, so that ridiculous haircut she had a few months ago has disappeared.

You were unreasonably reasonable on the Arkle thread. I’m still waiting for you and Fist to have a massive fisticuffs – or has it already happened, and I haven’t gotten around to reading it yet?

I’m the resident idiot here, but I studiously avoid getting involved in arguments with people.

Today was a wasted day. Started off fine, making a profit of £70 on the Hobart Cup, before going into work. Aftertiming. Today was the first day with us all in the same workshop, and boy was it noisy. I contemplated going to B&Q and buying some earmuffs, but I moved on to a job where I was testing the speakers on phones, so I wouldn’t have been able to wear them. One of the arms broke on my glasses. I left work early. Went to both Vision Express and Specsavers, but neither could give me an eye test today or tomorrow. Got the train to London, and went to my opticians of 29 years at the University of London Union. I was rather nostalgic on the train journey, as I reminisced about the times my glasses and I had spent together, and the circumstances of our first meeting. I’ve got a crack in one of the lenses, from my previous job at the Dover Immigration Removal Centre, on top of Western Heights. One of the thermoplastic (?) lids on the meal boxes I was returning from the solitary confinement detention block was blown off by the wind and hit me in the face. The optician finishes work at 3, but she agreed to give me one, even though it was 3.20 and I think she was due to pick up the kids. Was rather miffed that they had thrown away my records, as they archive them or whatever after 5 years, and I hadn’t been there for 10 years. It was extremely uncomfortable – she kept on looking into my eyes, to see if they have been damaged by my astronomically high blood pressure. I refused to take a blood pressure test, and it was impressed upon me to visit my GP. (Need to get one first.)

Embarrassingly, I now need two pairs of glasses, one for reading. Cost was £20 eye test + £129 glasses + £20 anti-reflection + £49 glasses + £20 anti-reflection = £238

As I’ve got to go back to London to pick them up, not only has my Hobart Cup money disappeared, but so has my Gidam Gidam money. I am particularly miffed about the latter, as I could easily not back the winner of a major h’cap chase again until about November. I was looking forward to doing a bit of reckless betting in the next fortnight, and now I’ll have to be more careful. In addition, my credit card is now maxed out.

On the way home, I picked up my bicycle from work. Couldn’t wipe the rain off the saddle, as it had frozen. Bought myself some cod and chips to cheer myself up.

To make it all worse, I missed both the Gilmore Girls and Veronica Mars today.

Jeez, even my hero Deirdre Barlow has those small rectangular spectacles nowadays.

Oh well, the weights are out tomorrow, and whilst other people’s betting on the race is just about to start, mine is drawing to an end.

I have given up the prospect of making a profit on the race, and am now just treating this year as a learning year. My win last year was just a fluke.

My main decision will come at the five day stage on Easter Monday, when I decide whether to stick with what I’ve got, or back every unbacked horse to guarantee, say, that I get at least £800 back regardless.

Won’t be doing much betting in March because I fancy the idea of having a big bet in the Brocklesby, based on the draw.

The first thing I have learned is not to bet a horse unless either the trainer or owner says the race is the aim. [Cost of lesson: £300]

Following from that, not much betting will be done before September, as that is when we start finding out the info.

The other major lesson I’ve learned is about how much horses can drop in the handicap, now there is the new regime of dropping horses quickly, as well as raising them quickly.
The following horses were all in the 140s a year ago, and look at them now:-

116 Himalayan Trail
123 Golden Flight
135 Offshore Account
129 Kilbeggan Blade
123 Simon
135 Rambling Minster

There are probably a few other instances that I haven’t noticed, as well.

Offshore Account was my preferred Irish horse a few months ago [Garde Champetre aside], and now, based up the rating he has got for the RP Chase it looks like he won’t get in.

Smith can’t raise Tricky Trickster and Niche Market more than a few pounds for Saturday’s performance, so they look well treated, considering most of us suspect they are better than they have shown. If we are looking for other potentially well-treated horses there are
War Of Attrition – I’ve been working on the assumption that he’d get about 149 for the past few months, but it may be a few pounds higher than that now.
Trabolgan is probably so well-treated that he won’t get into the race.
Sorry, can’t think of any others off the top of my head.

Oh yes, well Nozic will be well-treated, so long as he is entered, and runs well!

Of the ones that aren’t treated well I like Beat The Boys a lot, as he seems to have travelled well in his races this season, so I suspect he’s got a bit more in the tank.

Snowy Morning will be interesting off 150 or maybe less – unfortunately, I don’t have anything on him.

Regarding the weights, I don’t expect too much compression at the top, as Smith has tied his hands by guaranteeing Mon Mome 161. I suspect Albertas Run and Notre Pere to get 163 or 164, and for some reason, I expect them to get the same mark. In the same way that it would be unfair to Mon Mome to drop the two higher horses much, it would also be unfair to Mon Mome to drop the horses under him much either. That is why I’m expecting only 1 or 2 lbs compression for AR and NP, and nothing for anything else.

edit: Just in case you’re wondering how come I’m posting at the moment, I took today and Friday off as holiday, to get used to my new glasses, before I operate machinery. As a consequence, I’ve decided not to bother taking Cheltenham off, and instead I’ll watch the first race each day on Channel4+1. However, will take the Tuesday and Wednesday of Aintree week off as holiday, so I’ve got 10 days off in a row.

Further edit: Jeez, what a display of ignorance – I forgot about Madison Du Berlais and Taranis being at the top of the h’cap as well.

Sorry, probably a bit too dismissive of Character Building there.

Whilst I’ve developed a bias against Accordions at 4m+, CB’s redeeming features are that he has form at that distance, and has Roselier as his damsire. Kendal Cavalier will tell you more than you want to know about Roselier (his Nom de Plume on blue).

If an Accordion were to win the GN, this must surely be the one.