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Oh no; not another bally Bally!!!! My brain can’t cope with it…..only 986 more that can have an entry in the GN……[theyr’e multiplying by the minute…..]
Just spotted this thread, Gerald. Good luck with it.
FWIW, I have Golden Flight down as a non-stayer for the National – it certainly looked that way when he was beaten in the Grande-Steeplechase de Paris a couple or so years back.
Oh well. At least the plan is to run Golden Flight, so I’ve got that 1 out of the 40 covered.
Russian Trigger is younger than I thought, but may be ok for a place. Got to check out Dear Villez and Knock on the Head……and now Over the Creek is back in training; can’t miss out that one……
This is a group of 8yos that I might be interested in. It isn’t exhaustive, as quite a few others may have slipped under the radar by not running in or entering the big staying chases. They have all won a chase of 25+ furlongs, have stamina indices I like, and are in about the right ratings band.
2002
Can’t Buy Time
Coe
Hoopy
Jaunty Flight
Killyglen
Kornati Kid
My Immortal
Obaki de Grissay
Oedipe
Ornais
Russian TriggerIn my very first post on this forum last December, I wrote that it was 6/4 that the winner of the GN was a crock ( 6 out of 15).
Actually, it is now odds on ( 9 out of 16 ). In addition to the subsequent winner Mon Mome, I seem to have overlooked Earth Summit who I picked up today. I also seem to have added another one in the past few months, but I haven’t checked which.
2009 Mon Mome
Missed Mar 07 – Feb 08
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2008 Comply Or DieMissed 2006-07 season
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2007 Silver BirchMissed 2005
[/color:5kfh460b]
2006 NumbersixvalverdeMissed Feb03-Feb04
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2005 Hedgehunter
2004 Amberleigh House
2003 Monty’s Pass
2002 Bindaree
2001 Red MarauderMissed 1999, 1 race between Oct94 & Oct98
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2000 Papillon
1999 Bobbyjo
1998 Earth SummitMissed 96-97 season.
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1997 Lord Gyllene
1996 Rough QuestMissed Nov92-Dec93
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1995 Royal AthleteMissed 1994, 1991, and most of 1992
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1994 MiinnehomaMissed 90-91 season, Feb 93 – Mar94. Never ran May-Nov
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Yeah, I have noticed that most of them were British. Maybe there is sense in the Irish running their stayers over 2m4f for most of their careers.
edit: It was Rough Quest that I didn’t mention. Maybe it was because the horse had been back for two and a half seasons.
I always tended to think that the National was won by class RSA horses that had slipped down the handicap, but it was probably Royal Athlete that made me think that [although it’s what made me fancy Comply or Die the other year]. Also think that certain trainers [eg Pitman, Pipe are/were very good with that sort of horse]. Red Marauder probably wouldn’t have won any other year.Didn’t know that Numbersixvalverde had had time out [still a non existent horse to me; didn’t back him when he won, and never really knew who he was or where he came from].
Yes, there were 4 RSA runners winning the National in 5 years.
Miinnehoma (Won)
Royal Athlete (Fell when favourite)
Rough Quest (4th)
Earth Summit (7th)That was why I was looking at Horner Woods, but I suppose that is for 2011
edit: No6 was still a hurdler when he had a year out. As he came back in Feb, it was understandable that he was kept to hurdles for the remainder of the season.
He won both the Thyestes and the Irish National as a 9yo Novice.
Although he was 10yo when winning the GN, he was having only his 11th Chase, and was a second season chaser.
I have to admit that I hadn’t heard of him until after the race (during the race thought he was Valverde
), because at the time I used to spend all my time playing bridge.Grand National winning horses should have nice names
; not postcodes! I kept saying to everyone that I’d backed every horse in the race except No6, and that he was bound to win…oh well..off on me holidays…ta ta for now…….[sings, didn’t we have a lovely time the day we went to…….tidddy pom etc]
2002
Can’t Buy Time
Coe
Hoopy
Jaunty Flight
Killyglen
Kornati Kid
My Immortal
Obaki de Grissay
Oedipe
Ornais
Russian TriggerActually, out of that list, Killyglen will probably progress to be a 160+ horse, and Obaki de Grissay is too low. My Immortal needs to improve a bit.
The one that is potentially the most interesting is Ornais. Okay, he spent the large proportion of last season being injured. However, he is owned by Stewart, who had two tilts at major h’caps with horses that were put away for them last season – My Will in the Grand National, and Hoo La Baloo in the Whitbread. Neither attempt worked, but I was thinking he might try the same thing again this year, and I had the idea of working through his horses, trying to workout which ones. Had a brief look a few weeks ago, but couldn’t decide anything definite. However, this one seems to be a reasonable scenario. Just have a race or two before the weights are out (early Feb), and then you are free to run in any race you want prior to the GN without penalty.
Grand National runners 2002-2009
31 MC Pipe
9 DE Pipe[/color:davwdljg]
29 PF Nicholls
17 NA Twiston-Davies[/color:davwdljg]
14 Jonjo O’Neill
13 WP Mullins[/color:davwdljg]
10 F Doumen
10 Ferdy Murphy
9 NJ Henderson
8 Miss Venetia Williams[/color:davwdljg]
7 PJ Hobbs
7 P Bowen
6 D McCain[/color:davwdljg]
5 D Mccain Jnr
5 CR Egerton
5 ALT Moore
5 J Howard Johnson
5 Mrs SJ Smith
5 M Todhunter
5 C Roche
4 TM Walsh
4 E Bolger
4 James Joseph Mangan[/color:davwdljg]
4 CJ Mann
4 A King
4 AJ Martin
4 KC Bailey
4 Noel Meade
4 Miss HC Knight
3 MF Morris
3 TR George
3 TJ Taaffe
3 HD Daly
3 RC Guest
2 Paul Murphy
2 Thomas Mullins
2 Gordon Elliott[/color:davwdljg]
2 DT Hughes
2 P Hughes
2 Nick Williams
2 JL Spearing
2 Martin Brassil[/color:davwdljg]
2 C Byrnes
2 Ms FM Crowley
2 R Ford
2 Paul Nolan
2 NJ Gifford
2 M Pitman
2 AM Balding
1 IA Balding
2 AG Juckes
1 Evan Williams
1 Thomas Gerard O’Leary
1 CF Swan
1 C-M Cottin
1 KG Reveley
1 Mrs M Reveley
1 JM Jefferson
1 Mrs L Williamson
1 Eoin Doyle
1 Edward P Mitchell
1 NG Richards
1 Miss Lucinda V Russell
1 Mrs K Waldron
1 H Morrison
1 M Scudamore
1 EJ O’Grady
1 CN Allen
1 PG Murphy
1 Mrs LC Taylor
1 P Mullins
1 J Ortet
1 P Beaumont
1 JR Turner
1 R Lee
1 Edward U Hales
1 NB Mason
1 DC RobinsonSomeone has brought a book out with dosages indexes for NH horses, including the National. Is only available on their website from October, but may be for sale on Amazon at a later date. Says Backstage won’t stay [was quite interested in that one]. Church Island is very much back in the reckoning, imo and I’ll be interested to see how Silver Birch runs at Cheltenham next month, although I’d assume he’ll be @ 13 next year. Not many miles on the clock, though, and was going very well when tipping up this year. Gordon Elliott is one hell of a trainer.
Oh that’s quite funny Moe – I’ve just been playing away today on the betfair forum with dosage indices and the Grand National. No one mentioned the book at all. I was wondering why someone asked me for the dosage for a couple of horses, when they had that of others. I was thinking that everyone used pedigreequery for that info.
Hi Moehat & Gerald
That is odd (but good) that people have been mentioning Dosage ratings on the Betfair forum. This has nothing to do with me as the betfair forum is somewhere I tend to avoid, the last time I was there the main topic of discussion was what everyone had for tea?!?!
Moehat – The book is actually available from the publishers web-site (High Stakes publishing) not my web-page, but you are correct in saying that closer to release time (24th October) it will be going on Amazon.
Thanks Guys
Hi Ben, I only visit the Ante-Post forum on betfair. But there seem to be quite a few people there that discuss the current day’s racing because they too want to avoid the main section!
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I had a look and thought it was the most boring forum I’ve ever come across and vey much a place for discussing the next race rather than subjects like the Arc……..didn’t hang around long enough to take along look but gave me the impression I had just walked unto a betting shop.
Has anyone given any consideration to the chances of Charachter Building?. John and I go back a very long way so I am biased but this horse has been so unlucky having twice gone wrong just before the race. John wasn’t all that keen in running him 2 years back so it never hit so hard but this last seasons race was heartbreaking for everyone concerned. He wasn’t quite right all season but despite being aimed mainly at the national manged to hack up at Cheltenham which wasn’t entirely a susprise that he won but winning that easily was………I was having kittens thinking he must have a great chance at Aintree and the next thing he somehow found and stood on the only stone in the entire village of Settrington
…….I suppose he’ll have gone up in the weights after the Kim Muir win but he was a very slow developer and could still improve.He’s never fallen in his life but the big question is has his best chance now gone?
He’s only run in 11 chases, so there could be more improvement to come.
After the Cheltenham Festival victory I think many of us had decided to take the horse seriously. Moe was quite keen on him.
Luckily I hadn’t put any more pennies on him before he became injured.
I think it is important that the horse has a couple of runs this autumn. I think it is now the last 14 winners who have had a couple of outings by Christmas. (Need to double-check Silver Birch. I know he ran in a Point-to-Point, but I think he ran a race under Rules as well.)
Like you intimated earlier in the year, there isn’t too much incentive in backing horses that are 34 or 48 etc for the GN.
I have to admit though that I put a few quid on State Of Play at 55 a couple of weeks ago, because I thought it would be unlikely that his price would get much bigger in the months to come.
The good thing is that Character Building’s damsire is Roselier. Having Accordion as a sire for the National I think is a bit of a negative.
edit: Have just seen his dosage numbers. Based on the work I did a couple of days ago, he is a marginal chuck. It seems a bit silly that such a decision is based on such a factor as him having Tudor Minstrel 4 generations back in his pedigree though. Kendal Cavalier can probably give chapter and verse on the record of Accordion runners in the National – I haven’t gotten around to that.
), because at the time I used to spend all my time playing bridge.
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