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Nick, didn’t dancing brave get beat in the derby?
I agree with the sentiment that Mordin sounds like a bad loser to me.. Horses who only win by short distances tend to be regarded in this way, and i’m just a guilty of that.. I thought Sp was lucky to beat HN in the craven, i’m still not sure what the outcome would have been but theirs nothing lucky about the fact that he’s always there at the finish.. Beaten only by GW over a mile, not flukish to me.
I’ve said in another thread, great ride from murtagh controlling the pace giving his mount every chance, but SP won it fair and square as he was further back than all the rest of the top 5 coming round tattenham corner… Definitely not lucky… And I backed Hala Bek
HR is the best middle distance horse in the world, without doubt. He’s a monster of a horse, providing he gets there he’ll win the Arc again unless visindar turns out to be a monster as well…
Yeah I agree she is the "value" but I haven’t got a strong opinion of which will win so I won’t back either of em.. <br>If I was asked to pick i’d say shirocco will win it as his recent form is stronger, but then if ouija board shows up and runs to the top of her form she could win.. When i’m split in a race like this I have a knack of picking wrong one. The Champion hurdle was a case in point as I thought it was a toss up between BI and MJ and I backed MJ because of the price but if they were the same price i’d have backed BI. Hence why i’ve decided to only back the horse I think I will win regardless of price (except odds on shots, I tend to leave them alone, I guess thats searching for value).. I’m not scientific in my approach I just know that this has been working for me since cheltenham…. I think sometimes the price can get in the way of judgement. But it’s just a view I take.
I used to bet like that always searching for value but it didn’t pay for me in the long term, the winners are always sweeter but much less frequent. I tend not to back odds on shots but I ignore the prices until i’ve made my selection… So if i pick something at a big price it’s a bonus…
"Remember lads it’s not about the horse most likely to win, which is Shirocco, it’s about PRICES and at the prices there is only one horse to be on in this race."
I’m of the opinion that you should always back the horse you think will win and if you don’t fancy the price then don’t back it.. Anyone else think that or will you back a horse because of price value? or should I just start another thread!!
Personally I won’t be backing anything cos I can’t decide which of the front two will win.. and I will no doubt pick the wrong one
I’ve backed Riyalma, pretty much based on watching the video’s so i’m almost going completely on intuition… (probably a bad idea but I wanted to have a small interest) That was after looking at the form which didn’t really help as none of it looks particularly strong.. I saw short skirt win her maiden last year and was mega impressed but then backed her next time when she got hammered and never fancied her as a stayer.. Alexandrova has a lot to find to win this, she looks to have a turn of foot but she will have to come on a lot for the run. The big imponderable is if speciosa stays, if she does I think she’ll win, but on breeding you wouldn’t fancy her.. Riyalma’s form isn’t particularly strong either but I thought visually she looked to travel well and she travelled prominently so can hopefully worry speciosa out of it towards the end…
Poor race? Waste of space? Surprised by those comments… I think you’ve got two of the worlds best mile and a half horses on show, bar hurricance run who else would start favourite ahead of Shirocco? And why would you replace it with a handicap!!! Madness..
Good shots GD.. I think she looks great!!! I thought she ran with plenty of promise tuesday..
Lib,
I would think being with godolphin is about the only negative with their current form. Given that she cracked a pelvis you have to say that was a good run.
Admittedly her form was perhaps not as strong as others but hurricane run was hardly impressive in the Niel but still romped the Arc. Shawanda could not have won her prep more easily so I would still say it’s an over reaction from the bookies. Godolphins current form may be a factor
25/1 about ouija board is a huge price in my opinion as is the 16/1 about shawanda… Didn;t she pick up an injury during the race last year? and she went off at 3/1 so 16’s is huge
I agree DJ, he’s not pretty but he’s certainly effective and when McCoy has had enough of coercing horses in his own inimitable way Brennan will probably fill his boots… Still a long way to go to be as good as Ruby though who I think is in a league of his own.. Anyone see him win on Oodachee the other night? how he manages to stay so motionless I have no idea
Bear, I disagree, Brennan will ride more winners than Lee in my opinion… I would think Richard Johnson is quietly pleased that Brennan has gone.
I think Brennan’s a much better rider, but I also think Lee might be a bit hard done by considering Johson hasn’t really given him much to work with this year… Scapegoating..
Burroughill, she’s not running now, Kirsty’s still not happy with her starting as she’s still falling out of the stalls rather than breaking. She’s not completely come in her coat yet either.. So 25th May hopefully at Lingfield….
Could that be something to do with the way in which horses are being trained these days? It seems the trend to hold onto horses longer to allow them to mature so the older horses tend to come out on top as they are more developed and a bit more battle hardened? Could be wrong with that as i’ve only really been watching properly for about four years… but may have something to do with it
