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Arc 2006

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  • #2726
    FlatSeasonLover
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    • Total Posts 2065

    Its not self-publicity for my employers but Ladbrokes are the first bookie I know of to price up the Arc. They make Hurricane Run favourite; prices below

                       <br>Hurricane Run – 11/4 – – – – – – – – – – – – –  – – <br>Visindar – 5/1 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – <br>Deep Impact – 7/1 – – – – – – – – – – – – – <br>Shirocco – 8/1 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – <br>Heart’s Cry – 10/1 – – – – – – – – – – – – –  – – <br>Mountain High – 14/1 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – <br>Scorpion – 16/1 – – – – – – – – – – – – – –  – – <br>Shawanda – 16/1 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – <br>Septimus – 16/1 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – <br>Ouija Board – 25/1

    The thee that interest me are Hurricane Run, Deep Impact and Shawanda. If the ground was soft Shirocco would also tempt me, but not at this stage. Hurricane Run must have a good chance, but i can’t see the price getting any shorter. If Deep Impact is as good as people say it will circle the field 3f out and gallop clear right to the line. Having only seen 1 of its races I can’t be sure but it looks somthing special and If I could bet with Ladbrokes I’d be on. Shawanda appeals as best value at 16/1 as this one is apparently the best they’ve got (according to a recent interview) (and one of my Godolphin seven star picks). Any thoughts on these prices?<br>

    #72398
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Apologies I believe its L’Arc De Triomphe.

    #72399
    Gareth Flynn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 583

    Mountain High shorter than Scorpion? Bizarre.

    Anyway, if I was forced to back something at this early stage, I’d probably go with Shirocco, the kind of professional animal who I would expect to hold his form throughout his season and is more likely to get shorter than bigger.

    #72400
    FlatSeasonLover
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    • Total Posts 2065

    Good To Firm ground would almost certainly rule that one out Gareth but I’m defenitely interested in it, but as i say I’m happy to hang on and find out the ground on the day (and confirm its a runner).

    #72401
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    I think the registered ame of the race is the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (not sure about the Lucien Barriere bit).

    Shirocco might look big at 8s if the ground came up soft but there’s no guarantee that Hurricane Run won’t handle soft. He finished over 4 lengths in front of Shirocco in last years Arc so no reason why Shirocco should turn the tables this year.

    The prices quoted for Deep Impact and Hearts Cry would be more accurate if they were the odds for the horses to actually turn up and run, never mind win the race.

    Scorpion was given a hiding in last years race, like Shiriocco, no reason to believe he will trun the tables on HR.

    I wonder what price Ace would be. I reckon he has a top Gr1 at 10f-12f in him and would like to see him aimed at this.

    #72402
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    Deep Impact – that’s huge if he turns up

    Shawanda – huge either way, should be about 8/1 in my book

    #72403
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    I see Barbaro is 29/1 on BF

    #72404
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Davidbrady you asked and I’ve got you an answer. These are williams Hills prices that they’ve (just) published.

    Hurricane Run 3/1 <br>Visindar 11/2   <br>Shirocco 6/1   <br>Deep Impact 6/1   <br>Heart’s Cry 12/1   <br>Shawanda 14/1   <br>Scorpion 14/1   <br>Ouija Board 14/1   <br>Sir Percy 16/1   <br>Septimus 16/1   <br>Horatio Nelson 20/1   <br>Pride 25/1   <br>Mountain High 25/1   <br>Ace 25/1   <br>Day Flight 33/1  

    Is 25/1 for Ace to your liking sir?

    Also its very interesting so see the price differential on Ouija Board. No surprise to see them shorter on Shawanda either.

    #72405
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    There is one thing that puzzles me with these prices, and at the risk of looking stupid, I’ll ask anyway.

    Deep Impact is more consistent than Heart’s Cry agreed, but the one time they’ve met (12f) Heart’s Cry beat Deep Impact by 1/2 length whilst carrying 4lb more. Firstly, why were they both rated RPR 125 and secondly why is Hearts Cry double the price of Deep Impact?

    #72406
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 438

    Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 4:21 pm on May 24, 2006[br]Hurricane Run must have a good chance, but i can’t see the price getting any shorter.

    <br>Not even if he "does a Montjeu" and wins the King George in a canter? The horse has yet to prove that he has trained on but, if he has, 3-1 is a huge price. There aren’t any obvious middle-distance stars among the three year olds, Visindar excepted, and the older horses will surely provide the main opposition, with your fancies Shirocco and Shawanda leading the way.

    Deep Impact was a three year old taking on older horses when beaten by Heart’s Cry last year (and was reportedly unlucky in running, too) and has improved this season, judging by his effortless demolition of Lincoln (third in the Arima Kinen) in last month’s Tenno Sho Spring. The Japanese rate him higher than El Condor Pasa, who ran Montjeu so close at Longchamp, and if he’s even as good as his predecessor, he’ll surely go very close indeed.

    #72407
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    25/1 about ouija board is a huge price in my opinion as is the 16/1 about shawanda… Didn;t she pick up an injury during the race last year? and she went off at 3/1 so 16’s is huge

    #72408
    Gareth Flynn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 583

    Shirocco has been kept almost entirely to ground with a bit of cut so far, but it’s not as simple as that to say he absolutely needs it. He was treated with kid gloves when with Andreas Schutz, but Fabre believes he will act on any ground and seems keen to try him on it. Remember, he was going to run in the Jockey Club Stakes with or without the overnight downpour. I can see him winning a Group 1 on good or faster ground between now and the Arc and shortening up for the big one on the back of it.

    With regards to Scorpion, I feel you have to ignore his run in the Arc last year for very good reasons – he was coming off the back of a tough slog in awful ground at Doncaster (and this is a horse who appreciates fast ground), he got very excitable before the race, and he ended up being ridden too prominently and wide around the turn (the last place you want to be at Longchamp).

    #72409
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Aragorn Shawanda’s form going into the Arc was 211111 including 2 G1s (French and Irish) and that explains why she was sent off 3/1. She slipped round the bend and cracked her pelvis, which explians why she finsihed 6th. I believe bookmakers are underestimating her becuase she finshed 6th and are forgetting why she finsihed 6th and her form previous to that.

    #72410
    Librettist
    Member
    • Total Posts 559

    According to Timeform, Shawanda sustained a hairline fracture of her off hind in the Arc last year. However she has been in work with Godolphin since so I would imagine the injury is ok now.

    #72411
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    I just felt that Shawandas form prior to the looked better than it actually was…

    Irish oaks springs to mind as a race where those beaten went onto to do not an awful lot (correct me if im wrong)

    Maybe she will be better targeted this year, but suspect at end of day, was simply not as good as thought

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