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Wins the Dewhurst, second in the Guineas, wins the Derby: his luck has got to run out sometime.
Would you run this horse in the Irish Derby or in the Eclipse? If connections are aiming for the Irish Derby, then we may assume that they’re thinking about the King George and the Arc; but I’m not aware of any horse managing to win those three races following the Derby, and I can think of a number that won the Derby, Irish Derby and King George and were never as good again. Mill Reef and Dancing Brave won the Derby, Eclipse, King George and Arc. Of course, Sir Percy is unlikely to be as good as they were; but if you were connected with the horse, you might prefer to attempt a feat that has at least been managed before.
Quote: from clivex on 11:14 am on June 6, 2006[br]A good speed rating proves that a horse can go fast…i suppose
A "bad" speed rating proves nothing either way
Thats about all there is too it
its been said before but i’m sure its more of
"a good speed rating tells you how bad a horse ISN’T"
(Edited by roland at 1:31 pm on June 6, 2006)
…and another quote which is apposite to this discussion is from the wily Italian himself, Luca Cumani;
"The only people who bother about time are those who are serving it!"
Known forever since as Cumani’s Dictum. At least in my house….
:biggrin:
I’d run Sir Percy in the Eclipse next if he was mine, and follow up in the Juddmonte, Irish Champion and Champion Stakes. He was lucky on Saturday, and I think he could be found out at the Curragh, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a very very good horse. He screams 10f champion to me.
What was Maudlins "speed rating" for Septimus? Did he have his slide rule and mickey mouse clock upside down?
:o
Stav
You keep saying that, but have yet to explain why a "bad speed rating" is a negative?
Thats my point..it isnt! If SP wins a slow run race the worst anyone can say is that it doesnt prove either way. U cannot go further than that… (for me there were many other positive factors of course)
Again, I ask you…how does that equate with all those slow races in france? Do we dismiss the form? IVE ASKED THIS THREE TIMES NOW
Also will the bailiffs let NM keep his clock and slide rule? :o
Mordin makes it sound as if this year’s Derby was run at a farcically slow pace: it was not.
Sir Percy got to the home straight slower than Slip Anchor, Nashwan, Dr Devious, Commander-In-Chief, Benny The Dip and Sinndar, but faster than Mill Reef, Troy, Secreto, Shahrastani and Oath among horses who have won the Derby on seemingly good ground since 1970.
The leaders in a race run at a flat-out gallop would have been only a little further ahead of the leaders in this year’s Derby as they were in turn ahead of Sir Percy.
And a similar tone from someone who sounds like he thinks he knows all there is to on the subject.
Sadly, Nick Mordin has restricted himself to thinking within his own box.
It takes a small man to be unable to admit when they were wrong.
I will get more derogatory still if you cannot answer my basic questions :o
May I suggest you read a book or two on the subject? [/quote
LOL :biggrin:
Clive has posted several derogatory remarks towards speed ratings, most of which lead me to believe he knows little about the subject, whereas all I am doing is stating that there is more to it than simply a fast time pinpoints a good horse and a slow time tells us nothing (lmao).
So what does a slow time tell us? conclusively?
And yet again…you avoid this question i notice…what about French group one form?
Suggest you read a few form books :angry:
Nick, didn’t dancing brave get beat in the derby?
I agree with the sentiment that Mordin sounds like a bad loser to me.. Horses who only win by short distances tend to be regarded in this way, and i’m just a guilty of that.. I thought Sp was lucky to beat HN in the craven, i’m still not sure what the outcome would have been but theirs nothing lucky about the fact that he’s always there at the finish.. Beaten only by GW over a mile, not flukish to me.
I’ve said in another thread, great ride from murtagh controlling the pace giving his mount every chance, but SP won it fair and square as he was further back than all the rest of the top 5 coming round tattenham corner… Definitely not lucky… And I backed Hala Bek
I can explain…
You get a slide rule and an egg timer watch and you hold the slide rule up to the television and slide it along as the horse gallops its way through the york mud …..and bingo!
Septimus will win the Derby!!!
:biggrin:
FFS
I questioned Maudlins assertions. They were, as I see it, "poor speed rating = rubbish horse". I disagree<br>Asking how this equates to French group one form or Seb Coe is not disparaging but maybe shall we say…exposing the uslessness of such conclusions?
If people that use these ratings use them in such a way( and as i suggested without taking into account other factors….see Septimus), then i reserve the right to sneer at what is seemingly a head-in-sand approach
As has been said
A bad horse cannot get a good speed rating but a good horse can get a bad speed rating
…..in a french group one race<br>
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