June 6, 2006 at 09:21 #2749stevedvgMember
- Total Posts 1137
From <!– m –>http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm<!– m –>
SLOW EARLY PACE CASTS DOUBT ON DERBY FORM
The Derby was run at a remarkably slow pace this year. The field were just lobbing along in the early stages as if they had twice the distance to cover. The front runner, Dylan Thomas, didnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t even begin to pick up the pace till a full half mile from home, and it was only in the last two furlongs that the horses were really asked to run. This being so it was hardly surprising that the horse with the most speed and luck in running should win in what turned out to be a four way photo finish. That horse was Sir Percy (37).
I flat out don’t believe that Sir Percy would have stayed the mile and a half in a truly run race. I’m also convinced that HALA BEK (37) would have beaten him had he not got involved in a barging match with VISINDAR (36) and then jinked badly to the right close home when looking certain to win.
The Derby is a race many of us look forward to for months. That it should be run and won in such a fashion by a horse such as Sir Percy does not make me happy.
As I see it the way to deal with the Derby is to treat Sir Percy as a freakishly lucky winner and bet against him with great confidence in future starts. There are many better horses around at middle distances according to my speed ratings. I’d also bet against Dylan Thomas ever running so well again in Group 1 company because he was incredibly fortunate to be able to dictate such a slow pace from the front.
The two horses to take out of the race as I see it are the moral winner Hala Bek and Visindar who has run faster than any of these rivals before and might well have done so again if he hadn’t got unbalanced, been impeded by Hala Bek and had his chance compromised by the slow early pace.June 6, 2006 at 09:30 #72897
People that watch clocks and not races…
In fairness to NM he has reasoned his argument but frankly all the analysis in the world cannot determine the character of a runner in a fight
Would he denegrate a Seb Coe gold medal because of slow early pace?
And i would rather look at Group one form than some bloody speed rating
As hor Hala Bek. Yes he jinked. And yes, what if he hadnt… But he did.. and thats a cocern for anyone backing him
Sir Percy has abit of the Giants Causeway about him. They dont jink.. Real horses dont jink :)June 6, 2006 at 09:46 #72898
Reading this again, I would now assume that every race not run at a "true pace" should now be dismissed?
Thats all French form out the window then….June 6, 2006 at 09:58 #72899davidjohnsonMember
- Total Posts 4491
Did you have a bet in the Derby Clivex? If so what did you back?June 6, 2006 at 10:14 #72900
A good speed rating proves that a horse can go fast…i suppose
A "bad" speed rating proves nothing either way
Thats about all there is too it
You would not take a Seb Coe gold medal off him because it wasnt a world record time would you?June 6, 2006 at 10:47 #72901
Explain why then…
Explain my point about whether all supposed slowly run races should or should not be ignored?. NM suggest former, which has interesting impacts on group one french form i would suggest. Well?
NM states that there are all these middle distance ghorses with "better ratings". Well, maybe they should have been entered in the Derby? Its a worthwhile prize…
And what was the "speedrating" for SP’s turn of foot in the last two furlongs? Seemed to be finishing faster than anything to me…<br>June 6, 2006 at 11:25 #72902
You are agreeing with my statement…
NM also makes certain assertions which seem to have little substance
and bet against him with great confidence in future starts.
why? If a "bad speed rating" doesnt prove that he is a bad horse, then why the "confidence" ?
I flat out don’t believe that Sir Percy would have stayed the mile and a half in a truly run race.
Again, how does he justify this? He doesnt. The breeding is not conclusive and again, because it "wasnt truely" run doesnt mean it proved he didnt stay<br>June 6, 2006 at 11:28 #72903
The Derby is a race many of us look forward to for months. That it should be run and won in such a fashion by a horse such as Sir Percy does not make me happy
So a group one winner and gunieas runner up is somehow not worthy of this prize. A horse with great attitude, turn of foot and trained wonderfully well after a real setback?
If I recall rightly, NM tipped Septimus :)June 6, 2006 at 11:32 #72904
And another thing….
When a horse has the streetfighting eyeballing attitude of a Sharmadhal, Giants Causeway or a Sir percy…this is one punter who is distinctly nervous about backing against them.
To beat Giants Causeway, they had to take the very talented Observatory right across the course.
Would suggest that Hala Bek took one look at SP and decided to do the same thing himself… ;)June 6, 2006 at 11:39 #72905FlatSeasonLoverMember
- Total Posts 2065
lol Clivex:biggrin:June 6, 2006 at 11:42 #72906davidjohnsonMember
- Total Posts 4491
Quote: from clivex on 12:32 pm on June 6, 2006[br]<br>To beat Giants Causeway, they had to take the very talented Observatory right across the course.
Cannot agree with that at all. Fact is Observatory was a better miler.June 6, 2006 at 11:46 #72907
I was on O that day. One of my biggest wins (he was massively overpriced) but the tactic was acknowledged at the time by connectionsJune 6, 2006 at 11:51 #72908
You keep saying theres more to it, but dont explain what
Explain whether we should ignore all slowly run races ? Ie , french form….
It may be that he will be too short priced (for some) but NM’s assertion went beyond that,which is ridiculous…June 6, 2006 at 11:53 #72909stevedvgMember
- Total Posts 1137
Well, maybe they should have been entered in the Derby? Its a worthwhile prize…
Apparently connections wanted Shirocco to run in the Derby, but were forced into the Coronation due to some technicality about age…June 6, 2006 at 11:57 #72910
Yes…very good Steve
I was assuming of course that Maudlin was talking about same age group….
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.