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Which form looks stronger to you – beating Knockara Beau a head or beating Tazbar easily by 13 lengths?
Selective comparison, Weird Al was having his chase debut and only his third start after a long layoff. Jockey instructions were to win without giving him too hard a race. He’s probably well over a stone better horse today
Better to compare Diamond Harry’s demolition of Knockara Beau, a far better chaser than Tazbar, NO comparison, Diamond Harry was awesome that day despite losing his concentration at one pointTo those that think Long Run is a stayer, it might help to stick your noses in ‘Le Forme Booque’.
The horse won six times at 18f in France, and a stiff 2m round Cheltenham is entirely within his compass stamina-wise. Indeed, it could quite easily be argued that the stiff 2m trip at Cheltenham is much less of an unknown than the stiff, extended 3m1f of the Sun Alliance.
With a stablemate who is a standout contesting the latter race, and with his Feltham victory comfortably better form than anything shown by the top 2m novices (imo), connections are absolutely entitled to roll the dice in the Kingmaker, where I am sure he will dance-up.
Granted, his jumping needs to improve, but French fences are soft enough, and he has likely learnt a valuable lesson at Kempton. I expect an authoritative display in the Kingmaker, and second-favouritism for the Arkle by 5pm on Saturday.
PS. Though I would say that.
An authoritative display and he’s likely to be
favourite
for the Arkle I’d say.
I was thinking more 7pm for that eventuality, Corm.
What Cormack said is what i immediately thought. The bookies will rattle him right down to 3/1 favourite. Some of them will try and pull your leg at 5/2. If anyone has him as an ante post for the RSA, then it’s only right you get some of the 10s, just incase likes. My prediction might look far fetched with regards to what he could end up if he wins, but i’ve saw enough of how odds work to know what happens. 3/1 if you’re lucky after Friday.
To those that think Long Run is a stayer, it might help to stick your noses in ‘Le Forme Booque’.
The horse won six times at 18f in France, and a stiff 2m round Cheltenham is entirely within his compass stamina-wise. Indeed, it could quite easily be argued that the stiff 2m trip at Cheltenham is much less of an unknown than the stiff, extended 3m1f of the Sun Alliance.
With a stablemate who is a standout contesting the latter race, and with his Feltham victory comfortably better form than anything shown by the top 2m novices (imo), connections are absolutely entitled to roll the dice in the Kingmaker, where I am sure he will dance-up.
Granted, his jumping needs to improve, but French fences are soft enough, and he has likely learnt a valuable lesson at Kempton. I expect an authoritative display in the Kingmaker, and second-favouritism for the Arkle by 5pm on Saturday.
PS. Though I would say that.
Are you not worried that dropping back in trip will put his jumping under more pressure Grassy? I’ve no doubt he’s got the natural speed to handle two miles but I’d worry about his jumping with the likely pace they go over the shorter trip.
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Goldi
As Irish Stamp has ably pointed out, Diamond Harry was well over-rated for his Haydock hurdle win, and there’s little doubt some of that euphoria carried over to his chase debut, despite his being put in his place in the Long Walk intermediately.
Imo, he was once again considerably flattered on his chase debut; Knockara Beau pulled hard and jumped poorly in what turned into a 6 furlong sprint – all 4 horses were still well in contention until the melee at the 3rd last – and he had little difficulty in using his undoubted speed to pul clear of the hampered KB.
He may well turn out to be as good over fences as he is over hurdles – which wouldn’t win him an RSA anyway – but has had neither his jumping or his stamina tested severely enough so far to say so.To those that think Long Run is a stayer, it might help to stick your noses in ‘Le Forme Booque’.
The horse won six times at 18f in France, and a stiff 2m round Cheltenham is entirely within his compass stamina-wise. Indeed, it could quite easily be argued that the stiff 2m trip at Cheltenham is much less of an unknown than the stiff, extended 3m1f of the Sun Alliance.
With a stablemate who is a standout contesting the latter race, and with his Feltham victory comfortably better form than anything shown by the top 2m novices (imo), connections are absolutely entitled to roll the dice in the Kingmaker, where I am sure he will dance-up.
Granted, his jumping needs to improve, but French fences are soft enough, and he has likely learnt a valuable lesson at Kempton. I expect an authoritative display in the Kingmaker, and second-favouritism for the Arkle by 5pm on Saturday.
PS. Though I would say that.
Are you not worried that dropping back in trip will put his jumping under more pressure Grassy? I’ve no doubt he’s got the natural speed to handle two miles but I’d worry about his jumping with the likely pace they go over the shorter trip.
Like I said, IC – his jumping needs to improve. If it does, then I’m confident he has the requisite class to win over even the sharp 2m of Warwick.
For me, he jumped UK fences like he would jump round Auteuil – expecting them to give way if he brushed through the top. Hopefully he has learnt his lesson, and been schooled a few times since Kempton (Henderson indicated prior to the Feltham that he hadn’t so much as popped him over a fence since he arrived, IIRC).
If he has learnt his lesson, the trip should hold no fears, and I’m quite satisfied that 2m pace will not get him discombobulated in any way.
The solution to Sam’s terrible dilemma "How do I ride Long Run and Stravinsky Dance now my helicoper’s not an option?" Simple Sam, run Long Run in the first at Newbury on Saturday ,that way you could ride both horses.
BUT….and it’s a MASSIVE "BUT" Diamond Harry is in the first, and I don’t want to p**s on their parade but that would end with the Waley-Cohen camp in tears and they’ve wisely / realistically given that choice a body swerve
Yep…they are definitely running over 2m at Warwick to swerve Diamond Harry at Newbury.
Pfft.
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Think they’d made the choice before they knew the declarations for Newbury CS – else they’d already booked the helicopter on suspicion.
Agree with Corm that it smells of an Arkle trial; if Long Run can jump well around the sharp Warwick track, he should have little problem with the shorter option at the Festival.- Total Posts 17716
Good to see the worthless original post fizzle into a sensible discussion about the RSA/Arkle. I learnt a lot more that way. Also good to see that it only took a few pages for someone to mention the epitome of hype –
A typical example of a "hype" horse was Henderson’s juvenile hurdler, Approaching, at Sandown on Saturday; never jumped a hurdle in public, sent off the 11/10 favourite
They might want to send that fellow off to Luca Cumani for a return to the flat a la Purple Moon.
According to me there is no such horse as Approaching.
Dictionary.com definition of the noun "hype": exaggerated publicity; hoopla…..an ingenious or questionable claim, method, etc., used in advertising, promotion, or publicity to intensify the effect…..a swindle, deception, or trick.
And that definition has backed down from the earlier one of "deceptive advertising or promotion". By that definition, hype can never be justified, as if it is justified it was not hype.
They’re far more likely to be running in the UK to be avoiding running at 3m+ in France as a 5yo than avoiding Diamond Harry.
Why would they avoid Diamond Harry anyway?
According to me there is no such horse as Approaching.
Nicely played Prufrock, although you’ve now upset anyone on TRF of a certain vintage who remember the doughty Josh Gifford trained stayer who won the Hennessy and was still going at the age of fourteen (if memory serves).
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