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I’d be quite interested if Long Run lines up in the Arkle, Warwick is a pace bias track and King Edmund is a fair front runner, he was very good on the clock at Plumpton in a reasonable field on his debut and he was easily put aside by Long Run today, I’ll watch the videos back tomorrow and watch each fence more closely but he will of learnt alot today, Long Run has some serious class and will be a big threat if he lines up in the Arkle.
Kauto Star dropped back from a Betfair Chase to win a Tingle Creek and on the evidence I’d be of the opinion Long Run has the ability to do the Feltham/Arkle novice equivalent.
How long is it going to take before someone suggests doing a "Flyingbolt" and trying to win The Arkle and The RSA
I can’t believe how many folk out there are wearing blinkers
e]
Questionable, Kauto wasn’t exactly bad in last years Gold Cup.
What did he beat, a sick Denman whose jockey was told not to force the pace, the only way to ride him.
I honestly believe he was nowhere near his best I keep thinking Nick Dundee, sorry to repeat the comparison but we are talking another high class chaser who came back after a serious injury, won a decent race (like Denman) but was never the horse he was.I pray the natural successor to Denman, An Siorrac, current recupriating in Ireland, is not similarily afflicted
An Siorrac is a very talented horse but connections will have had a good result if the horse is rated 155 if he goes under rules. You’re comparing a genuinely top class horse with a very good hunter chaser (who’s currently injured).
The comparison between Nick Dundee and Denman is all wrong also – Denman has come back from a heart problem and blown the opposition away in a Hennessy when giving weight away, as good as ND was he won one or two graded races and then suffered more injury problems. There’s been nothing suggested by the Denman team that there’s been anything wrong with the horse since last April.
I can’t believe how many folk out there are wearing blinkers
I’ve been tracking it. Here are the results:
1 (CheltenhamSpecialist)
I can’t believe how many folk out there are wearing blinkers
I’ve been tracking it. Here are the results:
1 (CheltenhamSpecialist)
Can we agree to repost this post after Cheltenham? One of us will need to eat Humble Pie
e]
An Siorrac is a very talented horse but connections will have had a good result if the horse is rated 155 if he goes under rules. You’re comparing a genuinely top class horse with a very good hunter chaser (who’s currently injured).
He’s only had the one race under rules (and 2/2 in good points) give him a chance to up his rating with a few more runs
I can’t believe how many folk out there are wearing blinkers
I’ve been tracking it. Here are the results:
1 (CheltenhamSpecialist)
Can we agree to repost this post after Cheltenham? One of us will need to eat Humble Pie
It’s about robust debating, rather than point-scoring, CS. Wherever Long Run ends-up, it’s been a good joust.
It’s about robust debating, rather than point-scoring, CS. Wherever Long Run ends-up, it’s been a good joust.
The joust is over,i have watched the race several times as i always do before i commit to comment! Long Run is not an Arkle horse,he was flat to the boards today to maintain that gallop,it was purely the fact he has stamina in abundance that allowed him to stride out like he did! He won like a 1/2 shot should,but he will win nothing at the festival i"m afraid,his jumping will catch him out in whatever race he contests!
The joust is over,i have watched the race several times as i always do before i commit to comment! Long Run is not an Arkle horse,he was flat to the boards today to maintain that gallop,it was purely the fact he has stamina in abundance that allowed him to stride out like he did!
What was the race time like? I’m not really that good with pace; early on they didn’t look to me that they were going fast enough for Long Run. Not saying that I would put him in the Arkle though!
4m 4 secs was the time,which giving ground conditions on the Softer side of gd.sft was respectable,not the fastest on the day but certainly not the slowest! Faster ground would not have helped in the slightest! He needs at least 3m!
4m 4 secs was the time,which giving ground conditions on the Softer side of gd.sft was respectable,not the fastest on the day but certainly not the slowest! Faster ground would not have helped in the slightest! He needs at least 3m!
Thanks.. I wasn’t thinking faster ground, just a faster pace. But I think because he’s a big horse he doesn’t always look as if he’s going as fast as he may actually be (if that makes sense).
I tend to be a bit wary of negative trends unless there is a sensible reason for them. The trouble with arguing that Kempton poses too different a test compared with Cheltenham is that a fair number of King George winners go on to win the Gold Cup, which begs the question of why Feltham winners do not do likewise. That said, I’d expect a higher proportion of King George winners than Feltham winners to follow up at the Festival, as the King George is a more prestigious target than the Feltham and would be more likely to attract the main Cheltenham contenders.
Precocity is probably the answer Kifill. Look at a flat equivalent, why do so many Princes of Wales’ Stakes winners go on to win the Champion Stakes whilst so few Chesham winners win the Dewhurst?
They’re both over the same distance and at the same courses, in my opinion the main answer lies in where and when you’re campaigning your horse.
I think the answer to that particular question IS lies in the conditions of the Chesham so not sure its a good example. Though I agree with your overall point.
4m 4 secs was the time,which giving ground conditions on the Softer side of gd.sft was respectable,not the fastest on the day but certainly not the slowest! Faster ground would not have helped in the slightest! He needs at least 3m!
You need
at least
three more brain-cells!
My understanding of the Long Run saga is this. Nicky Henderson wanted to run the horse in the Arkle. Walley Cohen wanted to run him in the RSA. No good to Nicky having the horse beat or be second to Punchestowns if he could take the Arkle to.
…though if he does go the Arkle route, wouldn’t there be other Henderson runners in Riverside Theatre and Mad Max in opposition, too? Long Run will still have a bullet from his own yard to dodge regardless of target.
(NB that’s not to say I
necessarily
expect either Riverside Theatre or Mad Max to prevail, though at the same time the best price 40s about Mad Max looks too big not to have some small, speculative money on – he won’t get such a unsatisfactorily run race at Cheltenham as he did Doncaster a week ago).
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
What i said a couple of days back to CS might holds a bit more weight now i feel. Diamond Harry should have had an alternative entry for the Ryanair, and not the World hurdle. Nicky Williams hasn’t covered himself in much glory here. One of Harry’s problems though might have been the small field. It was too easy for him to lose a bit of concentration over the fences. If he’s in a race with more runners, and a better pace, he will go better.
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