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Conclusion ran out a nice winner in the end and finally gets the thread on a + since a rocky time of it since april! Unusually i have virtually nothing antepost running at royal ascot, i toyed with rhododendron for the queen anne but in the end never backed her at the 10/1 at the time, shes around 3/1 which is still a price IMO, no bet as of yet
3.05 chantilly
If this was over 12f i think laurens would definitely win, over 10 1/2 i think shes less likely to win, but still more than capable and at the price she is i cannot follow her in, why happily is less than half her price is beyond me, cant say i know about the fav shahnaza but her listed win wouldnt be close enough to win this, shes by azamour which doesnt fill me with confidence that she will have the scope to improve, but not entirely ruled out
Laurens 2 points e/w @ 8/1
3.05 chantilly
Having a saver as i feel shes laurens biggest danger With you 1 point @8/1
Laurens again battles on well to win, shes surely going to be even better at 12f, such a tough horse, the godolphin horse did well to finish where she did after being niggled along early, puts us in a noce position going into ascot!
+24 points
Few bets tomorrow for day 1
2.30 ascot
Rhododendron 3 points @7/2 Thought id hold off to seenif i could get better than 11/4-3/1, 7/2 is enough for me, shes the best horse in the race at this distance, ill be disappointed if she loses
3.05 ascot
Cosmic law 1 point @ 12/1 Calyx and SP look special, but they are both too short IMO and im happy to take them on with this lad
3.40 ascot
Lady aurelia one of my fav horses, no bet race but i hope she wins
4.20 ascot
Tip to win 2 points e/w @ 6/1 Cant believe the price he is, the romanised form has to be taken on, without parole HAS to be taken on, chilean needs cut, gabr needs to find 10lbs, this looks like a gift to me i absolutely cannot see this horse being unplaced, he just looks progressive and if he runs to 117 hes going to walk it
5.00 ascot
Meri devie 1 point @ 10/1 Not my favourite of jockey bookings but the horse is well in and ive always thought the flat would be ideal for her
+15 points
A blank today and i was bitterly disappointed with tip to win! Not entirely sure what the winner has done there as romanised blew put, tip to win blew out, gustav got close, muddling to say the least, but he won well and credit to JG he said we would see a different animal to LTO and we did
2.30 ascot
Shades of blue @ 6/1 4 points Form is absolutely rock solid, he bolted up on debut, 2nd has bolted up twice nto, 3rd bolted up NTO, given the type of race this is nothings a certainty, but if she improves atall from her 1st run the fav is going to need to be the flying machine shes proclaimed to be, ill have a saver in this as i liked the debut, not a yard i follow much but the horse won well Kurious 1 point @ 16/1 Way overpriced on that debut win
3.05 ascot
Southern france 1 point @5/1 Unexposed, nelson looks like he needs cut, kew gardens is hard to catch right, usually im not one for following th “potential” form, i like the proven, but the gosden horse or southern france would be my pick here, SF will stay which gives him the nod
3.40 ascot
Aljazzi 2 points @ 9/2 Have to take on the fav, dropping back in trip on GF, she has proven group 1 form over this trip/ground, but it does concern me slightly that after winning a group 1 over 12f they come back to 8f knowing she has a penalty, if aljazzi runs to her mark hydrangea is going to have to run a career best to win with the penalty… without giving the weight away i think shed probably be good enough to win, a reproduction of her run in this last year from aljazzi and she will be no worse than 2nd
5.00 ascot
Gabrial 1 point @ 29s Frankie booked, minefield, i like the race, hoping the old boy can get a win before he retires Bless him 1 point @ 25s Prepped for this.
5.35 ascot
The race that intrests me the most out of the day, a few nice types in here and i think emaraaty is the likely winner, but happy to take him on, what will expert eye do today? James garfield a fav of mine but has a penalty that will surely find him out, this looks like his trip nowadays, society powers winning streak will likely come to an end as the weight swing with emaraaty should surely find him out, im going to have a go at a few outsiders St patricks day 1 point @ 46s Was supposed to have a prep the other week, likely been revved up at home since, moore has to desert but id be surprised if he wasnt something decent after being moved from baffert to obrien walk in the sun 1 pont @ 44s Another who literally could he anything, had plenty of time off and a stable switch, wouldnt associate meade with being able to fire one up after a break, but he was a €1.4 mil purchase who big things will be expected of, both have taken a walk in the markets, possibly get a bigger price tomorrow if holding off but ill take whats there, both should pay there way in time and ill recoup if they are not good enough this time around!
+15 points
Came out level for the day, shades of blue nearly gave us an ideal start, followed by southern france who plugged on for 2nd, aljazzi won well, mile was to sharp for the fav now.
Tough day tomorrow and a few familiar names who have gave me a good return on here
2.30 ascot
1 point kinks @ 12/1 Vintage brut won twice for me and im deserting him
but i fear the ground will be too firm for him, konchek was closing in at the end and i feel he will go one better than VB because of the ground, however kinks was well backed LTO at sandown, had a nightmare trip (like VB) and got pretty close considering, expecting him to go closer here.3.05 ascot
2 points e/w hunting horn @7/1 Group 1 form, ground questionable, but slight drop in trip a positive, wadilsafa won for me LTO, but im questioning if this is just going to come a bit soon for him, could easily be the best of these in the future, frankie deserting CB for MS surprised me but i cant have either, not the greatest of races, could pay to look for an improver like wadilsafa but im going to stick with HH, a reproduction of the french run should see him go close.3.40 ascot
Sun maiden has got to be one of the WORST favs ive ever seen, is this a joke? 5/2? Not saying she cannot win, but should surely be somewhere around 5/1 minimum, have to take her on and the obvious choice for me is Wild illusion The ground again like the last race is a slight doubt, but a good 2nd in the oaks against a few horses shes beaten and a few no hopers, dancing brave bear could be one to watch but cannot get away from wild illusion
Wild illusion 5 points @ 11/44.20 ascot
No bet in the race but i think OOSG will win this with desert skyline running on behind, i like stradi, but im not as certain another 3/4mile is going to suit him and id have to oppose, although hes a horse i think highly of, my least favourite horse of all time runs in the race, vazirabad, never catch the horse right and absolutely MUST be ridden one way and one way only, he could go close but ive no idea what hes going to do, he will be coming late, thats all i know lol
5.00 ascot
First contact 2 points @15s5.35
Lucias tiberius 1 point @17.5sCant be confident on the last two races and its only gaining my attention because i had marked these two up for handicaps when they appeared.
+23 points
Hunting horn made the day, wild illusion put in her place, the ground the making of the winner this time!
2.30 ascot
Fairly big day tomorrow and the one that catches my eye the most is fairyland, have mentioned her before on here and cant believe moore has deserted her again after that win LTO, was seriously impressive, the fav must be a rocket at home, but have to take her on, really like the look of this one
Fairlyand 4 points @7/2
3.05 ascot
Very muddling race im going to look for something to improve, delano would prefer cut, no? Rsotropovich sent to france as his pedigree suggests this might be too far,old persian is too short, raa atoll looked promising, but wells farhh go for me, happy they benched the epsom idea after his reappearence and im hoping hes back to himself, should stay on pedigree and his sire was one of my all time favs, hoping he can put in a nice run here if not winning
Wells farhh go 2 points e/w @ 10/13.40 ascot
This looks a deep race, a few at the wrong trip, equilateral was phenominal LTO, but 5/1 about sioux nation will do for me, ground and trip hes unbeaten, i expect him to win this.
Sioux nation 2 points @ 5/14.20 ascot
Clemmie 3 points @ 9/2 The fav won a horrible irish guineas as did BB and teppal in the british and french versions, im not clemmies biggest fan, but she was there #1 and im not sure i like the form of any of the 3 guineas so far, so ill happily take a swing at the odds that aiden was right about her.
0.5 point e/w accum on the above First day ill get to watch any of the meeting so far and ill celebrate that with throwing a daft bet in at the end
Good luck.
+9 points
How good was alpha centauri?? By far the best miler this season so far, was against the irish guineas form but its stacked up well all credit to the winner and whoever backed her, clemmie, like much of obriens 3yos this year was substandard, 6f trips surely lie ahead for her
Final day and not much really, a hard day to assess for me
2.30 ascot
1 point new winds @ 16/13.40 ascot
I liked Van beethoven but I was certain he would go up in trip, not back,1st and 3rd have flaunted the formline somewhat. But i dont think hes quick enough for 5…. 1 point north wind @ 110s I think he will be suited coming back to 5, still raw LTO4.20 ascot
This is tough, redkirk is very interesting he beat merchant navy giving him 12lbs a few months back, meets here off levels, has obrien found some improvement? Has redkirk travelled well? Harry angel will likely be disrupted by intelligence cross, can he keep a lid on it? The tin man is in and out but loves ascot, decided to just watch and enjoy this for what it is, too many questions over most of the field and i keep finding an angle against something, merchant navy would probably be my pick but its far from confident5.00 ascot
1 point out do @ 40s Won for me at a big price last year, owes me nothing, cant desert him here off 1 lb higher
Irish derby
2 points dee ex bee @ 4/1 Saxons price is a joke, id have a max bet on dee ex bee if he wasnt trained by MJ and its the only doubt that i have is that his horses tend to run a shocker after running well and so forth, hes a hard trainer to catch right now at this level and his horses always seem to fall short when they probably shouldnt, this horse SHOULD win this race on form, there expecting alot better from SW but im not and hes totally opposable at odds on, knight to behold could run better than his price suggests. May add one more come the weekend.
Horrid from dee ex bee but latrobe won well, i did fsncy rostropovich to run better than his odds suggested and saxon warrior better over shorter.
2.45 saint cloud
1 point @ 8/1 salouen Small field here so not playing e/w, sds jocked up, these french races are often ran slow then sprint at the end, cant see sds allowing that and he could just catch the others out, big fan of coronet and she should surely go close under frankie but she often finds one to good and walgeist looked progessive in his last two outings but hes short enough here
but i fear the ground will be too firm for him, konchek was closing in at the end and i feel he will go one better than VB because of the ground, however kinks was well backed LTO at sandown, had a nightmare trip (like VB) and got pretty close considering, expecting him to go closer here.
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