To Punchestown and beyond

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This topic contains 398 replies, has 12 voices, and was last updated by  ham 2 weeks, 6 days ago.

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  • #1445489

    ham
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    Still largely uninspired by the flat season, although a few of these races could see me uturn and show some interest!

    Having a few bets on day 1 and 2 (day 1 being the main one)

    Queen anne
    Laurens 5 points @7/1 No doubt in my mind shes the best of these and theres no doubt im highly biased towards her ( :yahoo: ) but of course when placing such a big bet ive taken into consideration the obvious, definitely needed the run LTO, bit of juice in the ground, weight allowance, will win on the line! Still amazed at the le brivido angle and favouritism, hes a bit like air force blue in the sense that he seems to be fav for every race hes in but doesnt look like ever winning. Barney roy winning this would be a miracle. Mustashry was just the beat prepped horse in the lockinge, wont win this, i think the outsider im most worries about is one master.

    Coventry

    2 points arizona @7/2 Majestic sands at 33s is my other fancy, saver on the exchanges on the day

    Kings stand

    1.5 points e/w mabs cross @17/2 Dont know why im going e/w tbh she will win, big weight swing with battash, blue point, has the abillity and likes ascot, ground?

    St james palace

    5 points phoenix of spain @7/4

    Nothing else needed to say on this race looked to be streaks ahead of everything in that guineas, its a daft price

    Wolferton

    1 point e/w addeyb@8/1

    2 point double phoenix of spain 7/4 (SJP) & sea of class 11/4 (POW) 9.3/1

    Prince of wales (wed)

    5 points sea of class 11/4
    Best bet of the week for me, magical isnt in the same league.

    Good luck

    #1445491

    buckers
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    It’s good to see you back for Ascot Ham. I really like Mabs Cross as well, it’s a very fair price.

    #1445499
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    Some ballsy shouts there Ham!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1445542

    ham
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    Cheers buckers, been back to laying practically the whole flat season, i really want laurens/enable/sea of class to light the season up now with the colts largely disappointing, although phoenix of spain could still be anything.

    As always jack, money where my mouth is lol arguements against? Or any big fancies yourself this week,Always good to hear your thoughts….

    #1445598
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    I’d argue on a reappearance SOC might be vulnerable mate. No doubt if she improves as a 4yo she’ll probably end up a superstar, but plenty against her for Wednesday i’d argue. On last years form there’s very little between her + Magical. She’ll have to be fit and firing.

    I quite like Snow Falcon in the Ascot Stakes. Meade is flying this year on the flat.

    With you on Arizona thought he looked very decent! Which means Sunday Sovereign also needs backed in the Norfolk haha. Twomey is some trainer. I’ll be having a small saver on Cox’s horse. The reason for the saver, bar him looking pretty decent performance-wise is the fact, Cox actually out performs a lot of the top trainers here with his 2yos. https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/royal-ascot-two-year-olds-pinpointing-the-improvers-1462019 Found this article quite interesting, for all it could mean nothing haha.

    I’ve been tipping away at Blue Point since Cheltenham, not going to lie, Battash on reappearance looked lethal, and the draw now makes it interesting. Wouldn’t say i’m as confident now.

    On Phoenix of Spain, he looked awesome, slight worry bout the Curragh pace bias? Very possible he’s just better than them but at those odds i think i’d swerve him personally?

    I’m on Le Brivido at 25s- safe to say i’ve laid my stake off as he’s terrible value now

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1445645

    ham
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    Yeah i can certainly see the angle against SOC, but although magical was as close as SOC vs enable if we use her as a true formline, i dont think magical would ever have won the race at any length, where as SOC was definitry the “best” on arc day, just her run style will catch her out in those big fields, the trip is thr only thing that i had a doubt about, i refuse to believe magical is now of enable/SOC quality and in my own view ive written off her three wins this year, nothing races IMO but for sure SOC will have to be ready to fire!! Should be a cracker if they all run to form!

    Havent had a bet on that but i could be tempted by cosmelli @90s i dont think its a strong race, SF in with a chance keanes top drawer!

    Yeah sunday sovereigns been rock solid i could take a punt there, will see how it goes tomorrow first!

    As good as battash was that weight swing is serious with mabbs cross, equates to about 10 lengths and he wouldnt have won LTO with that difference, battash is at a backable price atm but hes too liable to blow up for me, blue point like i said is a bog danger and the ground looks good atm if the rain stays away he could be the one to spoil the party!

    POS just looked better than them all to me, coulda ran the race differently and same result for me although before the race i wouldnt have gave him a squeek FTO.

    Le brivido will drift like a barge tomorrow,
    Not saying he cant win, but that price is silly 10/1+

    Big question for me, what the hell happened to settle for bay?? Hadnt watched the meydan races so hadnt noticed he made a reappearence, fell to pieces!

    #1445650
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    Magical would never have won that Arc, she had an even worse passage than SOC haha!

    I think Kevin Blake said SFB has had a problem or two over the Winter + a wind op.

    I like Joey’s in that King’s Field. Decent form. His run behind Smash Williams last season reads well + he got no run at all. Blake has always raved about the party after SFB’s win with Marnane…i have a feeling this fella is a big hope for them. 103 arguably high enough but at 25s he’s my Hunt Cup play.

    I’d have to disagree on Le Brivido being 10/1+ he was too short at 4s, but he ran well last time with a poor passage + draw. Course form + probably primed for this given it wouldn’t be a stellar mile division i’d say 7s would probably be right!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1445659

    ham
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    Haha i meant the magical that ran enable home in america!

    Will be watxhing out for SFB big ask!

    Some drift on phoenix of spain, although this is the too darn hot – frankel fantasists who think every horse who has a few 1s at 2 is the next frank! 126 sheesh, 120 sheesh, cant win this on what he has shown, can he? Lol

    #1445701
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    Haha the SJP has gone full circle, last week i thought TDH was too big, and if Phoenix keeps drifting he’ll become too big! I haven’t a bet in the race, i find it very hard to read. To be fair to TDH he’s had a shocking start to the season campaign-wise, and i don’t put the blame purely down to the trainer, just circumstance! He could well bounce back but not to 126 anyway! According to John Gosden TDH had a flu vaccine before the Curragh, seems weird, and you’d wonder why that wasn’t said about?
    If there’s one i’d maybe chance in some markets away from the outright win market, it might be Royal Marine? Massively have to forgive that Guineas run and it’s possible he’ll turn into the standard Godolphin horse that gets worse rather than better but i’d be slightly interested.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1445709

    ham
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    • Total Posts 2202

    Yeah it certainly has, i was happy with 7/4-15/8, i get the pace bias at the curragh etc and it would be silly to not take it into consideration, but when TDH, EA, MG came upsides or nearly POS just bolted clear, honestly believe he would have won regardless of where he is and IMO i think 6/4 is a fair price for him, hopefully i got BOG i cannot remember lol im sure i did…. yeah i like gosden, BUT i do not buy into this flu jab and bad campaigning, he was fully aware TDH needed one to compete in the irish guineas and didnt think it would have affected him, which i dont think it did? He was a good 2nd and post race frankie never hid behind an excuse just said POS was a better horse on the day, i hink saying TDH hasnt trained on is unfair, i think he was just a better 2yo than most of these and hes a top 3yo, much like so mi dar and lah ti dar, when coming into proper group 1 open class company theyve been found out a touch! At 5/2 or whatever he is its a fair price if your a fan, wouldnt put anyone off, just not for me. Royal marine e/w isnt the worst shout, aidens dont look good enough to place and im absolutely totally against king of comedy, couldnt back him any price and if he somehow wins this ill be done with the flat season LOL hes about the worst priced horse of the week, dont think he should be shorter than 20/1 lol

    #1445807

    ham
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    Addeyb and arizona getting me out of trouble for a few points up on the day! Phoenix of spain hurt! Roll on sea of class for a walkover (if she runs of course)

    #1445832

    ham
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    • Total Posts 2202

    Looking at tomorrow, having a real issue getting a bet on atm, skybet, 365 (annoyingly as there cashouts are golden) and betway have all just restricted me to minimum stakes (365 totally shut me down), happened before when i took a break and my overall account was in a +, when i came back boom, restricted, really finding it tricky at the moment, my staking on this 1-5 points, im getting about 1/20th of a point on with some of these idiots… anyone else had a real rise in restrictions? I havent been exactly banging in winners recently what i post here is generally what i bet bar the odd one….

    Anyway ill just start posting the best price available as im probably going to have to go exchange only…

    Queen mary:

    This is a right race, ive got a shortlist of 3 which ill be backing and ill avoid talking about anything else for times sake, Flaming princess 1 point @48s Loved her maiden win, forms been boosted, the 2nd is coming in for money and i dont see why she should be discounted, likely get a better price tomorrow but its big enough for me,
    Tango .05 point e/w @16/1 And finally the fav 1 point e/w final song 11/2

    Usually id look at the american angle first but i believe due to such a dry winter that the british/irish lot will be alot further forward than previously. Ground a big bug concern for wards

    As previously posted 5 points on sea of class @11/4 Hoping she runs, would be worth backing her at 10/3 id say as if she gets “confirmed” she will tighten up again.

    Hunt cup:

    1 point mordin @16/1 Will like the field and ground.

    Windsor castle:
    0.5 point e/w red epaulette @22/1

    #1445848

    greenasgrass
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    Nice one with Addeyb :good:

    #1445859
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    Yes Ham, well done with Addeyb. Didn’t end up having a bad day either!

    On your restrictions issue i have noticed this too. I think most that show any clue on betting are restricted, i suppose those that stake bigger will be stopped quicker. I was told 365 monitor bets stricter £50 and above. Not sure if that’s true but who knows!

    Tomorrow is quiet for me. How bad is that Queen’s Vase! Magical at 7/2 which i’ll take. King’s Field in the Hunt Cup for Joey. Rawdaa in the G2, with a saver on Move Swiftly + a smaller save on Hand on Heart haha.

    That’s me! GL!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1445902

    ham
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    Wasnt really too fussed about the rest but being restricted by 365 is a killer, the cheltenham cashouts were like i said, golden! Lol

    Yeah the vase is rotten looking, surely only norway or WA can win, but i wouldnt be having a bet, its not a good day by any means

    The week could easily turn into coolmores utter domination, ten sovereigns and hermosa double is tempting me slightly, 13/8 about the former looks pretty big atm

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