April 24, 2018 at 00:22 #1351717
Will post my selections here instead of the general threads, should make for some giggles down the line
Exciting first day at punchestown, but not a big betting day, very small stakes, absolutely fascinating watching the two powerhouses throw everything they have at the trainers title, thought it was excellent how vocal both have been about it, could be a few surprises from noel meade and de bromhead along the way!
Herald champion novices hurdle(4.20)
Mengli khan 5/1 1 point A repeat of his cheltenham for should put him bang there, doesnt mind a big field, should be on about the best ground hes had all season, pretty sure elliot will throw hardline forward to upset getabird at the front, wont get an easy lead…. MK could pick up the pieces!
Killashee handicap (4.55)
Joey sasa 18s 1 point Has been prepped for this, lightly raced 9yo, should/could still have a bit in reserve of the field and had a nice spin round dundalk to sharpen him up, secondly Housesofparliment 28s1 point A time of year i always pay attention to these colours and this horse arguably is massively well in if ever able to transfer his flat abillity to hurdles, hes going to pop up at some point in one of these, running off 10 stone 1 after the claim, got his ground (near enough)isnt running far above his flat mark over hurdles, appeals enough to have a few quid on, will probably have a few more quid on tomorrow, as i can see a drift before the off
Goffs bumper (6.05)
Think positive 9/2 3 points
Out of dun dun, by jeremy, a half brother to samcro, by a sire who has a decent strike rate in bumpers, shown enough on debut before being switched to willies (always a positive) just shy of 60 grand to the winner, mullins is not short of bumper horses this year and only sends one ridden by patrick, hes either really keen, or short handed (which he isnt).
For reference sake ill just use 1-5 points as a stake.
-6 pointsApril 24, 2018 at 01:50 #1351719
Venture to CognacModerator
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Good luck HamApril 24, 2018 at 09:56 #1351742
Like i said yest,if he drifted, id be Adding another point Housesofparliament 40s
2 points @ combined price 34sApril 24, 2018 at 10:03 #1351745
Literally as i updated HOP is a non runner, disappointing!April 24, 2018 at 10:41 #1351747
Unlucky with HOP Ham, i could see the appeal back on a bit of better going. Given how far he stayed on the flat, i wouldnt be surprised to see him up in trip slightly sometime soon.
Opted with a speculative bet on True Self in that, very hard race and a day on the whole to way up!
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!April 24, 2018 at 10:55 #1351748
Not to worry jack at least it wasnt antepost!! He will pop up at some point at a price,yeah i like true self (42s) and also pietralunga (100s), when willie has horses running in handicaps off the low 120s its usually a go for me, as he doesnt often have horses not capable of running better than that, i think the elliot factor in the last season or two had made him more shrewd with these handicaps in mind,
Still quite keen on Joey sasa Though so will just leave it upto him now with HOP out, but wouldnt be surprised at the other two above going close!April 24, 2018 at 15:05 #1351764
Faugheen/yorkhill declared for the stayers, which surprised me, i figured penhill, bacardys and coquin mans would have been a formidable enough team, Given the lack in the CH division, but hes got most of the field, which makes me believe he has alot of faith in his champion hurdle entries, as ive posted before im quite sweet on coquin mans, i backed him @ 12s for this, but now it looks like hes definitiely coming here (bar an injury update which i havent seen) i think hes way way overpriced for this atm, its almost a certainty that townend will be on melon so could still get a decent price after final decs.
1 point coquins mans @ 23s Will definitely be topping up if hes declared.
-7 pointsApril 24, 2018 at 15:18 #1351766
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Good luck with the thread HamApril 24, 2018 at 16:54 #1351777
Jesus Ham some money for True Self…could do nothing but happy with that
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!April 24, 2018 at 17:16 #1351779
Aye good selection jack! was 42s when we spoke earlier, like i said its not often he has a horse remain in the low 120s and the elliot factor certainly has made him more handicap aware, came upside tanking, although Joey sasa Finished 2nd, she won with a fair bit in hand!April 24, 2018 at 17:40 #1351789
I got a little on at 46s before i left work, when i arrived back she was 17s on BF and 14s on 365….good gamble too.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!April 24, 2018 at 23:33 #1351854
Great stuff jack
An eventful day to say the least, was happy with MK and JS today, main bet of the day blew out, the winner was excellent, one to keep an eye on.
11/10 about willie to retain the title might tempt me in, havent decided yet, just having a rough tally up of what he could/should still win and ill be surprised if its less than another million before the end of the fes, can gordon find 600k? Not confident, ill leave that alone for now
Day 2 bet(s) again not a big betting day for me similar to today,
3.40 Killaro boy 15s1 point And Fine theatre 30s1pointBoth thrown in on there hurdles mark, never really had a race in the national, should be fit enough on previous exploits
4.55 next destination should win this, but to short for me at 15/8, should he drift i might go in
5.30 Killultagh vic 6/1 2 points Putting a line through cheltenham, would have won the IGC previous, has the talent if he keeps his jumping together, not the strongest of renewals by any means and RTR is not a horse id be backing at the current price
6.00 Carefully selected 6/1 2 points Relegate wont get the same type of race she had at cheltenham here but she was impressive, i felt carefully selected got a little lonely upfront, would be disappointing if one of them didnt win, patrick stayong loyal to blackbow surprised me
6.40 Viconte du noyer 25/1 1pointApparantly stables 2nd choice on jockey bookings, very similar profile to last year before running here.
-14 pointsApril 25, 2018 at 10:42 #1351888
I haven’t done the maths or anything but the kind of feeling i get after that debacle yesterday is Elliot will somehow get home. He’s beaten mullins by necks in both nationals and now for this to happen. Surely it’s his year!
Jesus that 3.40 is a lottery. Man of Plenty is consisten without being spectacular, he’s probably weighted to go ok. However, for me the worry has to be one of these formless Mullins horses is very well in. The only one i can really see that could happen with is Steel Wave. The other two wouldn’t convince me.
On Steel Wave– the jockey doesn’t win often, but it’s interesting he went off 7/4 in a similar if not better handicap over course. He won one over course for his old trainer off 104 and i’d be disappointed if mullins can’t find a little more improvement off 114. Mind you he finished last at Cork LTO.
I will chance him @12s and Man of Plenty @16s.
Agree on Next Destination.
I think Bellshill is the bet in the GC but it wouldn’t be a confident pick, KVIC jumps he could hose up, so talented.
The bumper is another i can’t work out either, any of Mullins could win really. Blackbow the obvious on his pre-chelt runs, but the others are open to improvement also. As is, Elliots who did well to finish where he did considering how keen he was!
The 6.40, i am going to chance Tous Est Permis at 20s. Probably up against it on the face of it, but he’s another off a feather weight. Blackmore does decent on Mouse chasers 3 from 19. The beginners he won wasn’t the worst, for all Brelade is average. The second to Death Duty probs isn’t true form to set your clock by, but he’s actually better off with Woodland Opera today. Worth a go anyhow.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!April 25, 2018 at 13:48 #1351906
The betting probably is correct jack and he does have a mountain to climb because of the race yest, but a few decisions could swing mullins way and he has more than enough ammunition to win it, i see it more of elliot needs to find 500k than mullins needs to, if that makes sense, because of willies team it would be hard for him NOT to win atleast enough to win it, it made since in my head anyway lol, the two novices could be key, samcro/laurina if one wins and one loses could be the decider, regardless, its excellent for the racing, give it a different feel,
Laurina 3/1 3 points In the AP mares hurdle, wasnt declared for the 2m4 novice today, havent herd of a setback, hoping this means shes coming here and much like samcro, wont be that price tomorrow if declared.
-17 pointsApril 25, 2018 at 18:19 #1351936
Man of Plenty 2nd at a decent price and Bellshill winning…not a bad day so far, onto Tout Est Permis!
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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