To Punchestown and beyond

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This topic contains 398 replies, has 12 voices, and was last updated by  ham 2 weeks, 6 days ago.

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  • #1351937
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    On Laurina Ham, i presume she goes there too. Makes sense if you think about it!

    Didn’t go the 2mile Novice race.

    Didn’t go for Champion.

    Logical for her to go there anyway really vs Mares and with BDD not looking a star over hurdles, granted she won on her first hurdle start at the fez! Would think AJ still hard to beat after having had a run now. Laurina though would certainly be the best challenger.

    3/1 a fair price, she’ll be backed…but i would imagine AJ will be firm enough in the market too.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1351958

    ham
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    Id assume the hype would make laurina 7/4 against AJ 5/4, something like that, but after a 6 timer today and mullins popularity, wouldnt surprise me she went off shorter,

    Another blank today but i expected a slow start when i started this, nonetheless, day 3 we go!

    #1351969

    ham
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    3.40 Lareena 8.2s 1point Not often i back the favs in these races but back down in trip on better ground should see her to better effect, ill also have Apparition 15s 1 point Could be about a stone well in if running to full effect over hurdles.

    4.20 Bon papa 7.2s 1 point Again another shorter priced one, his form figures read 111 over this trip and on better ground i think theres some juice in that price, the gordon elliot sunsetstorise is off an extremely low weight could have more improvement, but a bit short in the betting on form.

    5.30 1/2 point e/w bapaume @ 66/1 This horse interests me going forward, i was hoping hed run in the stayers at cheltenham, his best performance this season is over this trip, not to far behind supasundae and ill be quite disappointed if he doesnt show more today on better ground. Ill also have Penhill 5 points @ 3.2 Won that stayers with plenty left in the tank and was reportedly in need of the run, obviously fitter than mullins thought, but if theres any improvement from that run and he doesnt “bounce” hes a solid fav.

    6.05 Folsom blue 2 points @ 10/1should be shorter than this, hurdles form with glenloe/weights swing, he should be half the price he is.

    6.40 Saturnas 8/1 W/O footpad 1 point

    A few mentions 7.15 cut the mustard at 7s? Towenend deserting the fav? Thought hed definitely be on glens and the 7.45 i think castlebawn west is over priced at 8/1, will probably update tomorrow and back him if he drifts out a bit more, being one of the lesser fancied of mullins it might jjst go double figures.

    Good luck, ill definitely be needing it!

    -29 points

    #1351971
    jackh1092
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    Just going through it all now….on Cut the Mustard, are you siding with her because of townend or thinking he’s made the wrong decision??

    I thought Glens H was a bet myself

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1351973

    ham
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    Just puts me off slightly he hasnt chose GH, gets the decision wrong in handicaps often but thats to be expected, im always wary when the fav is deserted for something else in a listed/graded race… they get the decision wrong less often at this level, thats ultimately why ive left the race alone.

    On the plus side if you like glens, you Should now get a better price tomorrow once CTM tightens up.

    #1351997

    ham
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    1 point coquins mans @ 23s Will definitely be topping up if hes declare

    Adding another 2 points e/w coquin mans 20/1 To the above.

    -33 points

    #1352011
    jackh1092
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    I know what you mean Ham. Mullins comments in RP would put you off a touch, but to be honest i thought she looked a very good mare. Not sure i can say the same for the others of his in the race. That might not be enough of course.

    Coquin Mans is an interesting one. I see him being forced out in front to force a real pace to suit Melon.

    Personally can’t see past Samcro for the win, as i think the pace CM will force won’t be enough for Melon and he will nto see his race out as well.

    Very surprised not to see Mick Jazz in the race. If he was, he’d have a nice chance of placing IMO.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1352054

    ham
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    Brutal few days so far, plenty placed, and personally i dont mind to much losing out with penhill, as i cheered faugheen home lol, Just the one bet tomorrow, coquin mans as said above!

    #1352150
    jackh1092
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    Shocking day for me too. As you say tho, Faugheen made it all better!

    Today is terrible, not having a bet at the moment.

    Have heard a squeak or two for faheys in the bumper…but we all know how they end up!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1352410
    jackh1092
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    Faheys ran a great race in the bumper, think he could be decent.

    Merie devie over 2m4 today and twomey in bumper my two darks, good luck Ham.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1352470

    ham
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    Was a quiet day for me jack, i dont mind a bad run and i tend to tone it down when i keep placing rather than winning! Good shout with meri devie, wouldnt have backed her myself, low sun ran a cracker again after 3rd run in a short space of time

    One bet tomorrow, i have to take cracksman on as is my usual play for such short priced runners after layoffs cloth of stars would be the obvious choice as his sheema run was pretty solid, hard to imagine rhododendron wont be atleast 90%, a fan of her, she will be on my shortlist going forward hoping for a nice comeback run

    im going to go with 1 point e/w on finche @ 33/1

    -35 points

    #1352696
    jackh1092
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    Even though it’s the end of the season NH-wise pretty much- anything catch your eye going forward?

    I thought Fontley House, in Friday’s bumper was pretty taking. Probably not the strongest of bumpers, but as it was his first run, he stuck to the task well after i thought he looked like his chance had gone.

    Kemboy, given 156 pretty much means he has to take the step back into graded company, i think he’s up to it, and knowing his trainer he will pick his races well.

    Minella Awards- Either fragile, very ground dependant or Fry really wanted to target this race again this season. I’d imagine he likes better going even though he has form on soft. He was near last a lot of the way before having to be pushed to get with the main pack- i think he’s got another big pot in him, or potentially graded pots..

    Colreevy- comes with a rep, but also created a rep of being weak at the finish. I think it had more to do with her having a preference for slightly better ground. She was in my view, being outstayed in heavy ground bumpers, by two very very good mares in relegate and getaway katie mai. Might take a while for this one to happen, but when she goes over hurdles i will be happy to wait for her to get better going.

    Saldier- i mentioned it on twitter before Saturday- saldier +farclas are the juveniles to take from the season. Saldiers life is now a bit more difficult winning on Saturday. But on looks i think he has a lot more potential as he progresses with age. He looks the leggier of the bunch, and his jumping needs time. I wouldn’t rule out a go at the WKD hurdle at Down Royal in OCT/NOV. Trainer also mentioned flat racing.

    Minella Indo- Trainer not one for bumper winners. Hes owned by the Monalee owners and they will want chasers. He did say beforehand how he’d have to be very good to win, as even Monalee couldn’t! Bumper full of point winners, itcould work out well, it could work out weak- but i would think this guy will be good going forward.

    That’ll do!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1352840

    ham
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    Yeah,Kemboy looked very good, i was bitterly disappointed with coquin mans though, hes much better than that, but i wont lose faith, ill be playing very early on him if hes going over a fence, which i assume is still the plan

    Bapaume still interests me, hes been ridden quietly, footpad like over hurdles, not quite as strong on form of course…not sure what the plan is for him, another season over hurdles? But when he goes over a fence ill be keeping an eye on him.

    Vision des flos over fences is another, after his wind op and as the season progressed he started improving no end, didnt quite get his grade 1 but he had two hard races in the space of a few weeks,he could be one to keep an eye on in the jlt/arkle markets for me, i assume that will be the way there thinking with him. Looks sure to keep progressing

    And im keen on the one you mentioned aswell, saldier, alot more to come from him, always tough for these 4yos going forward though, get reminded of this year after year.

    #1352950

    ham
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    Kentucky derby:

    Mendelssohn 4/1 3 points

    Audible 7/1 1 point

    Palace house stakes :

    Havana grey 5/2 ?! 5 points

    1000 guineas :

    Laurens 9/1 2.5 points e/w

    As said on the 2000 guineas thread i have elarqaam at 33/1 but ill keep that seperate from this as was posted long before i started chipping away at this, so race is really a non bet for me, expert eye e/w would be my angle atm, but GK at 11/4 is still good value, hes the likely winner for me in a field full of horses either better suited by 6/7f or 10/12f

    -36 points

    #1353249

    ham
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    2.55 Newmarket

    2 points medicine jack 15.5s

    1 point e/w captain colby 25/1

    -31 points

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