To Punchestown and beyond

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This topic contains 398 replies, has 12 voices, and was last updated by  ham 2 months, 2 weeks ago.

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  • #1416001

    ham
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    Aintreeeee

    At a wedding on saturday with the speaches starting at about 5.00-5.15 :negative: will need to avoid all internet and tvs and lose my phone until i get home :yahoo:

    Have a few really big bets tomorrow all shorter priced but too big still IMO, a fair double and one rank outsider.

    Manifesto chase

    5 points la bague au roi @7/4 Should be a shade of odds on, shes achieved far more this season than the price is suggesting, i cant not back her full tilt at those odds, kaiser black beat CDC although CDC had a penalty, topofthegame and santini obviously dominated the rsa, formlines with lostintranslation, doesnt really get much better than that, every reason to believe she would have won the RSA (if coping with chelt) been targeted for this, coming here fresh, rock solid price and a rock solid bet, cant have the three in behind, i could possibly be tempted with bags groove as an e/w angle but no point with being ao confident La bague au roi will win.

    2.20 aintree

    Was not a fan of fakir doudaries for the supreme atall, but im fairly confident he will win this, band of outlaws was never touted as being capable of beating sir erec or fakir, could be showing more on track but although he won well LTO im not sure the form is upto much, the triumph was a dreadful race also and i feel the same in regards to pentland hills rated 153 (**** me) the 4th in the supreme should be good enough for this IMO, christopher wood is an improving type, big step up here stating the obvious, if fakir wasnt here id be backing him 1 point e/w fakir doudaries @4/1

    2.50 aintree

    2 points kemboy @5/2 That unseat could be a blessing, CDO had a hard race, his king george win albeit grade 1 in name is not standing up too well, BDM would have won if he stood up for me, hes the danger here, but i think hes better very fresh, very capable though. RTR EE and BDF wouldnt interest me atall,m.

    3.25 aintree

    Have always been a massive faugheen fan, he stayed that 3m well IMO he needs 3m now, cant have many big grade 1 runs left in those legs, melon i cannot for the life of me see staying this trip, didnt look like hes ever wanted this either, supasundae probably is the danger, but if BVD is on form he wont beat him, verdana blue is another at this level i dont think wants the trip, silver streak however is a solid e/w bet, he will be ridden to place again and i think he will 1 point e/w silver streak @25/1 1/5@3 And 5 points BVD @1.94 He should be more like 1/2 for me so theres still juice for me at that price, one concern is the jumping, if you go back to 2018s champion hurdle thread ive always said hes going to make a mistake at somepoint and he has, i think barry will be slightly more animated at the hurdles now and id like to think he wont make the mistake again!

    4.50 aintree

    0.5 point e/w demi sang @50/1 1/5 @5 places

    3 points double BVD & la bague au roi @3.8/1

    Big day, confident as ive been in a while on the bigger bets.

    #1416190

    ham
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    Nearly a total disaster if not for kemboy, still a big loss on the day but onto the next! 1
    Winner and 4 2nds! Had a nibble
    On burning ambition also so a frustrating day for me!

    that rain totally destroyed BVD the race turned into a slog, la bague au roi in my eyes looked to have needed the run surprisingly with the way she plugged back on at the end would suggest it wasnt the ground, they probably left a grade 1 behind there!

    Day 2 ill be taking it fairly light hoping to pick one or two up, the ground apparantly should be worse with rain falling right up until now i believe.

    1.45

    1 point esprit du large @9/1 And 0.5 point e/w mount mews @33/1

    2.20

    Backing a horse thats bled is never wise and i feel ill be coming back here tomorrow night reading this back reminding myself that… nontheless, if itchy feet runs how he did at cheltenham on this ground he will win, aramon was my bet, but not on soft, he would win this on good, is the best horse in the race IMO 1.5 points itchy feet @7/2

    2.50
    1 point chriss dream @10/1 Front two had tough races, tough ground tomorrow, wouldnt be surprised if atleast one of them doesnt blow up, lostinstranslation over this distance might just be a good thing for next season, he just lacked that speed over 2m4, could be a different animal @3m1f

    3.25

    Nothing in this betting wise but be laying waiting patiently i think, i hope min wins! Coin toss between him and the grey.

    Topham

    Now that the ground is soft i honestly havent a clue, will chuck a few quid at something so i can watch it on my phone but nothing close to a point bet, will look at the generel discussion thread and see what some of you fancy and pick the most compelling arguement out

    16.40

    Backed emitom for the ballymore a while back and the supreme, havent seen anything from his running style that suggests he wants 3m on soft, will be avoiding him, champ i actually think will be better at this trip, i see people suggesting its a stretch but i think he will improve for it, couldnt take the chance at the price though, Same applies to dallas de picton as did to band of outlaws today, wheres this price coming from, whys he so short? Best for on better ground and the martin pipe forms garbage, the one ive landed on is walk away, caught my
    Eye LTO, shouldnt mind the trip and ground with his PTP win, 1 point walk away @12/1

    Ruby in the bumper, if i dont have a string of seconds/losers ill probably come back for a decnt bet, if not ittl just be a tenner to watch the race :unsure:

    #1416217
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    Very hard day today Ham;

    Canardier in first, even with ground going agaisnt him i like him a lot. Also taken a little bit of hendos, complete unknown horse to be fair and his record in it is decent.

    Also Double Shuffle in the Topham!

    Love Lostintranslation but hard race today, i wish they’d let him sit 2nd or 3rd and not continually be sitting duck for a stalker in behind but hey ho!

    GL1

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1416227

    ham
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    The ground killed me yesterday jack lol i like canardier, but ive sort of avoided anything that would “prefer” better ground and wish i had been paying more attention yesterday as i woulda laid some back but i didnt! I can see the angle for him though!

    Yeah jack i agree with lostintranslation, i wouldnt be surprised if he ended up the best of the novices at 3m, but not with how there riding him!

    Sold on double shuffle! Thattl do for me! Lol

    #1416396

    ham
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    glad I cut back today as it proved as difficult as I thought it would, although, champ won well and I expected the setup to suit and lostintranslation the other who suited the step up, a difficult festival so far, few nice ones tomorrow hopefully!

    start with the grand national for once, one of my least favourite races of the year purely because the grief it causes the spot (un warranted imo) but it takes away my enjoyment of the race!

    I found it difficult to back one early this time last year I was on chase the spud really early in the season (ran poorly) but I knew I had a few live ones going into it, this years has been pretty difficult for me with the only real one I’ve fancied for a while being Rathvinden, I believe willie Mullins chasers this year have been pretty solid, he is my idea of the winner, but now with the itv virtual and the ruby effect, I won’t be surprised if he ends up going off joint fav, he’s just too short now to have a max bet on! so I’ve looked through the pack thoroughly for a day or two and I’ve ruled some out, ill start with those first, amiable fly its not just the fact he’s carrying top weight, its more to do with the fact that I think he’s already over rated, I doubt he has any improvement left in at that rating, he ran well last year and I think he will do well to get one place better off this mark let alone 3, Joe farrel & ballyoptic rated. 7 and 3lbs higher than there Scottish national run, Joe Farrell coming from a stable who doesn’t really have many winners now, has a low weight but I find him relatively easy to avoid, this is a much different test from ayr, one I don’t think his jumping will suit, he’s prone to errors and he will not get away with that here, ballyoptic I don’t think has any room for manoeuvre off, his jumping won’t stand the test either, I think they’ll both end up at ayr next week. vieux lion rouge looks to have fell out with the game and was really struggling last time out, he falls into the no hope category along with valtor,mala beach ultra gold, captain redbeard, valseur lido, a toi phil, bless the wings, outlander, magic of light, just a par, warriors tale, Don Poli, tea for two, Minella Rocco, one for Arthur, step back and singlefarmpayment if any of that list win ill be relatively happy, I couldn’t have any of them in any sense, there all no hopers in my book, there’s a few I’m not sure what they’ll do but I think could throw a surprise and if I was to have a few small throws at big prices it would be blow by blow @ 150/1 & livelovelaugh @100/1 both could outrun those odds easily, especially the former, he’s a very talented animal when he decides to be, but he’s extremely difficult to train and throws in some real shockers, first wouldn’t surprise me but neither would stopping for a roll in the mud. LLL hasn’t really really done anything to suggest he’s capable, but a few noticeable comments from Mullins and the owners racing manager suggest they think he has the ability to stay this trip which is often enough to run a place. go conquer again he could win this if his jumping held up but I’m almost certain it won’t and I can’t take the chance on him even at 50/1 he’s a much better horse when he gets to go off in front or prominent, a few horses around him I think his jumping will quickly go to sh**. onto the ones I actually do fancy and ill be backing. dounikos Elliot always had him as a stayer, wanted to run him in the 4miler last year, step up to a martathon trip last time really showed him to good effect, he gave general principle 5lbs in that race and this time will have to give him 10, but he’s thoroughly unexposed as a stayer and I like his profile thus far. general principle next as I said, is on better terms with dounikos, but he has the tendency to throw in a howler, needs this type of trip IMO, I think he will relish this test, jumps well enough, only one fall in 25 starts. vintage clouds pulled up in the welsh national after a bad mistake, jumping is a slight worry but jumped better at cheltenham, pushed along from a ways out, stayed on well, runs on same terms at cheltenham with lake view lad today, who looks sure to relish stepping up, has to be in with a serious chance today if repeating that effort. tiger roll legend of a horse, I have him well in to the tune of about 6-8lbs, ground should dry out slightly by tomorrow which will seriously be in his favour, if he gets round safely is extremely hard to see him not being bang there at the finish, the only single reason I’m not backing him is the price, its just,to,short. it probably is the correct price on form, but its unbackable for me, if he comes out to about 7s or 8s which I think he just might as people latch on to Rathvinden ill probably then jump on e/w. ive missed plenty out whom I don’t really have an opinion on but wouldn’t say cant win. these are my bets!

    1 point e/w lake view lad @18/1 5 @ 1/4
    0.5 point e/w dounikos @28/1 6 @1/5
    1 point vintage clouds @18s (combined)
    0.5 point e/w general principle @40/1 1/5 @6
    0.25 point e/w @150/1 blow by blow 1/5 @5
    1 point e/w Rathvinden @11s 1/4 @4

    so its a fair sized outlay and I could certainly add a few more in, obvious from stake size who my main two are.

    onto my two other bets for the day

    stayers hurdle

    was surprised to see them throw apples jade back into this so soon, she was shockingly bad at cheltenham, I don’t see how she could bounce back so soon, its been a long old season I couldn’t think about backing her at the price she is, outside her I think its a fairly weak race, if the cap fits could still be anything imo, he looks sure to relish the step up, but would like to have seen him try the trip before going straight into a grade 1, ill keep it simple, if Joe collider rides Samp spinner how he did at cheltenham he won’t be worse than 2nd. if the real apples jade turns up she probably wins, so I’m splitting my stake here on SS

    1 point e/w Sam Spinner @11/2 4 places @1/5th
    3 points Sam Spinner @3/1 without apples jade

    maghull noives chase

    5 points us and them @3/1 his turn to collect, well deserved.

    #1416406
    Venture to Cognac
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    Good post Ham, agree with a few points in there.

    Best of luck, especially with Blow By Blow, and General Principle lol

    #1419121
    jackh1092
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    Ham you’ve been quiet!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1429516

    ham
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    Took a bit of time to just watch the racing jack haha, been a while since i taken a break!

    That being said how can i not get involved with punchestown!, cant wait to see chacun pur soi take on ddg,

    Today isnt much of a betting day for me though, fancy quick grabim in the novice grade 1, KD definitely seen to best effect on heavier ground at this trip, frlix desjy could set it up and lesson will be learned from aintree not to give him too much of a lead upfront, a mullins 1-2-3 seems likely for me 1 point quick grabim @6/1

    4.55

    1 point raya time @8/1 Find it hard to believe that the mullins camp got annamix THAT wrong and that he isnt atleast a mid 120s/low 130s, apart from givinng weight away, he ran a nice 3rd behind dallas de pictons and city island, unlucky to still be a maiden, jockey booking slightly off putting, whys rachel not on?

    7.15

    1 point zambezi fix @6/1

    #1429520
    jackh1092
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    Probably a wise move taking a break tbh Ham.

    I am on Quick Grabim too but i think any of the 3 “outsiders” of the Mullin camp could win. Klassical Dream the best but not sure it’ll be run perfectly for him.

    Partly agree on Raya Time as well. The ability is there, but probably a tricky character which doesn’t help. I think Blackmore is riding Jan Maat as it’s Giggy more so than due to his chance. David Mullins is a great jockey too! I also think Sancta Simona might be worht chancing with a strong 2miles to suit, though she does find little off the bridle.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1429779

    ham
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    Yeah was overdue, been a tricky year for me but all part of it, but was also partly busy hunting for champions league final tickets, which i managed to find almost had to sell a kidney for them lol, missing the guineas meeting now for the first time in a while! Looks a right rotten race, both of them! had some fiver bets here and there when ive been at work to watch some of the races as the racing tv app for iphone is dreadful lol

    david mullins one of the best for sure, just with raya times profile and jaan mats i thought shed be on, but i suppose when giggy come calling and all take the chance while you can…

    Klassical dream no doubt probably could be the best of these but cheltenham really did fall perfectly with that rain a few hours before the off, theyv made no secret of what he shows at home but also that it is inevitable he will be stepped up going forward, quick grabim looks a speed horse, on a track which favors speed, could just have a bit if x factor about him, even the 4th to aramon (probably should have won) giving the 7lbs is still a group 1 performance when you look at what aramon has done since, on better ground aramon has proved himself to be every bit as good as KD, wonder what price a 1-2-3-4 mullins in this as i really do not like the other 2 lol, i dont know why i have such a dislike to FD, grade 1 winner and all.

    The handicaps and bumpers look a minefield this week ill probably sit alot of them out, debating wether to rule with heart or head on chacun lol, if he is what i think he is, 5/1 will never happen again.

    You got anything youv been waiting to come out this week?

    #1429805
    jackh1092
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    I wouldn’t be part of the FD fan club either. Think he was a fortunate winner at Aintree. Better horse than he was earlier in the season, but i don’t think he’s top class.

    I had eyed up Breaken for the 2mile race, then he wasn’t declared, and couldn’t make my mind up on him for the 2m4, he was 25s, now 8s and didn’t punt so angry there….For all he’ll have to massively step up.

    Elfile is probably one i’ll look forward to if running again, but probably won’t be missed and Ruby will probably ride.

    Haven’t anything standing out in my head right now otherwise!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1430423

    ham
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    Whoosh chacun, what a performance!

    #1430426
    Venture to Cognac
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    Bloody delighted with that Ham

    #1430431

    ham
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    Yeah he won that fairly easily IMO went away again as soon as he seen dds, something for us to sit on at 50/1, with altior going up, if he stays sound he will be fav by the start of next season

    Happy days! Been a long time waiting for that!

    #1441685

    ham
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    First proper bet today of the flat, pondered on laurens in the lockinge but sat it out, think she needed the run, will be kneck deep next time, have been watching alot recently and not really fancied much, same with next weekend although im missing the meeting again :negative:

    Irish 1000

    5 points just wonderful @6/1 For me, she broke poorly in the british guineas, looked very awkward and didnt like the track, took a bump off iconic choice and jinked too her left, made her even more awkward, didnt like the dip and stayed on at the end, ill be disappointed if shes beaten today, donnacha on board does me fine, can see why moored opted for hermosa, but i think she benefited from a proper ride from lordan, on another day just wonderful would have won that IMO, danger i feel isnt hermosa, its east, quick turnaround from the french guineas, she looked again to me to need the race, id expect her to step up from that and spencer aboard again, ill probably have a point saver on her on the off, qabala i dont think will see out the 8f again, pretty pollyana im assuming there going to ride her differently to try and get the mile, which she does have a chance on doing, shes not the worst bet.

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