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While last year will be remembered by many,for good reason,because of the pandemic which swept through country after country around the world my own reason’s stated above.Perhaps as petty and self centered it may sound I beg your indulgence because to me it’s a culmination of a lifetimes work.Hopefully we can now start to put this virus that’s caused so much distress both personally & economically behind us and look forward to a better future.
My betting this year will take on a slightly different shape in that alongside the numbers used during 2020 I shall be using the methods I learned from Fineform.
If you research this method you will find a great deal of confusing and conflicting information on the internet.I’m saying this as I entered a search to see what would be thrown up if one looked for the origins of this org.It became plain to me that some is VERY old and dates back to the early days.The ‘Fineform Rating Formula’ comes from books published by that org with the author being one Clive Holt.The books are in chronological order BE A SUCCESSFUL PUNTER,which contained the original formula followed up later by WINNERS BACK WINNERS which introduced the ‘Fineform Master Formula’,an updated version of the original with added elements and finally an appendix to the second book which covered things arising since the second book and also included readers letters to the author about their experiences and ideas.
Why am I telling you this?
Simply because I don’t want anyone to think it’s easy and be mislead by articles they will find.Written in my opinion by people who haven’t taken the time to understand the ins & outs of what Holt was trying to put over.Some I would even question the fact if they ever read the books concerned at all?
I’m going to start off this current year with MULZIM who runs at Southwell.
For completeness allow me to bring everyone up to date with figures concerning this thread and my own personal betting.
Since the tread started to a £1 win bet @ SP …staked £89 …returns £104.98 …. 17.95% profit
My personal betting for 2020 to prices struck or BOG = 29.3% profit.
good luck to allGood luck for this year,any profit for a year is good,lets hope 2021 is even better for you.
thank you kaiser,VtC
Surprised myself somewhat as to the final outcome considering how the season panned out and all the disruption.Hopefully a repeat performance is on the cards for 2021 as I shall certainly give of my best for myself and the readers.
While a little disappointed with Mulzim to start off the year it transpired the horse burst a blood vessel & bled.However as with all things we move on and going to Lingfield for ROYAL BIRTH in a race which I thought too close to venture an opinion but this mornings withdraws now make the selection a clear choice from the remaining contenders.Although not the best of draws the others all lead or race prominently and seeing the pace being a real burn up believe his hold up and swooping late style of running will prove most effective.A stable & jockey combination in form is always good and can see the selection winning again.
good luck to allJust about everything conspired against Royal Birth,including his rider!
Running three deep off the rail,not the place you want to be,ridden closer to the pace than usual,blowing the turn into the short straight….I had just about given up hope.Then came the power packed finish gaining with every stride coming to the post and actually winning rather better than the margin suggested I would venture.
I’m going for a quick follow up today at my local track and putting forward BALLYARE for your consideration.It all came together for the gelding last time over course & distance after suffering in his previous couple of races.Although now off a career high mark today’s contest should be very much run to suit with a strong pace likely and provided luck in running expect him to be in the shake up at the finish.
good luck to allToday putting forward for your consideration the runner up from Royal Births race as VERNE CASTLE e/w has for me shown the best recent form and indeed his best form for about a year.However the selection does come with a wealth warning as he’s not well drawn,but consider the bookmakers are playing fair by offering the current odds.As a juvenile he didn’t show much before being gelded in the autumn and showing much improved form when next seen the following spring on the a/w at Lingfield.Although being clearly suited by the synthetic surface he wasn’t given another try until later that year spending a fruitless summer on the turf.The final 3 outings of his 3yo campaign were all at Chelmsford in which a maiden success was quickly followed by two handicaps.The years since then have been up & down but he’s been fairly consistent overall winning his fair share of contests and being placed in many more.The gelding has now fallen to his lowest mark for years and will be disappointed if he’s out of the frame.
While I’ve been away from this thread events in Washington have taken a turn for the worst as some of Trump’s supporters have turned violent.However it was John Bercow that caught my eye with him saying how the protests undermined the democratic process.I couldn’t help but laugh as the saying …’the pot calling the kettle black’ sprang to mind as he had tried for years to subvert democracy in this country over the referendum result.
good luck to allThese series of five furlong races certainly serve up food for thought Blackcountry Kid.
Best of luck tonight with Verne Castle.
Could be a reverse of the draw to favour those from the centre out. Lihou I think is drawn six.Thank you for your comment sporting sam.
With the exceptions of Southwell which has a straight 5f and Newcastle which boasts the longest straight track of any a/w course all the others have to navigate a bend during races of even the minimum trip.Learning the characteristics of each course and how to ride them pays dividends on assessing a horses chance and the odds to be accepted.Many years ago David Bellingham produced two books published under the Raceform banner to explain,how he saw it,this new idea being presented to racegoers.Both entitled ‘Gold from the Sand’ and although I’m unsure of this I believe the original book was published in the 1990’s (can’t seem to find a date in the book) with a follow up published in 2005.These books are somewhat dated now as there’s been no updates since and Kempton,Chelmsford & Newcastle have been added to the original three tracks of Lingfield,Southwell & Wolverhampton.However the books did cover draw stats which could be used as a guide but the information on Dunstall Park did need reviewing as the course changed from fibresand to polytrack between the two books publication,since when it has also changed again to tapeta.I can recommend to anyone interested in a/w racing it can really pay off provided one’s prepared to invest the time to understand what’s needed to be successful.
As I’ve just noticed how short time is let me just say putting forward SPUROFTHEMOMENT at Lingfiels for your consideration today.
good luck to allAlthough the man himself is quite well known the mare KLOPP e/w probably not so well.
Running very well of late the final deciding factor in putting her forward for your consideration is the claimer riding who I think could be very useful and be in demand come the 2021 turf season.Having spent most of her career on tapeta it’s clearly something the mare feels at home on.Last time out was a bit of a farce after the false start but in the restart she dispatched her rivals with some ease.Also ran well up to standard behind The Nosey Parker previous to this and think she’s worth the risk with only a place needed to profit at current odds.
Been going close of late but not quite garnishing the winners I hoped however with Meydan starting to get into swing should give another avenue to explore.
good luck to allGoing to Lingfield for the class 3 sprint this afternoon and putting forward SUN POWER as a gelding I believe connections have finally accepted his limitations and is now being aimed at more achievable targets.For a lot of his career the selection I’m putting forward for your consideration has been aimed high and over longer distances.Now the sights have been lowered with a drop back in trip there’s evidence to think this is much more likely to bear fruit than previous runs.Although handicap runs are few those that are available suggest,to me,this is the place to be over a sprint distance and starting off 80 last time gives a bit of leeway to the 100+ rating he was given as a juvenile.Normally the figures Total Commitment has registered lately would have me all over him as a bet.However the widest of stalls,his record when reaching a handicap this high and only ever having won at Kempton on the a/w (does have a turf win @ Newmarket).
Now to something that caught my eye on the RP website saying “what do we want from jockeys?”
One thing immediately sprang to mind and although somewhat trivial I find most annoying.This goes right across the spectrum to all sportsmen and beyond…
…..”you know”…they will say when seem to be lost incapable of expressing an opinion or answering a question.Personally I would love the interviewer to say …”no I don’t know …please elaborate and explain what you mean?”
Just my own bugbear!
good luck to allVery interesting sprint at Lingfield this afternoon in which most of the runners in this small field seem to have some sort of chance.At this time just over a point separates the first four in bookmakers odds at best prices which I believe is an accurate reflection of how things stand.Although it’s a good class of race this isn’t a contest to invest in with so much depending on tactics and the overall pace.The simple fact is I’ve always been a mathematician and believe numbers are a universal language and tell you a lot more about a horses performance than collateral form ever could with the last time out expressing the best opinion.The race in question is the 2.35 and what piques my interest is the fact Streamline first time in a handicap off one run in a conditions event following over a year away from racing is now being promoted as a leading contender.This colt has good previous form as a juvenile but his return to racing was nothing special and I would prefer to watch such a race rather than speculate what he still capable of achieving.Just a thought!
However I am going to put forward LORD RIDDIFORD for your consideration over the favourite Tone the Barone because the latter has never registered numbers to compare with others here.Although the selection hasn’t won off a mark this high previously this gelding has performed with credit and recorded career high a/w high numbers last time behind Venturous who won next time with the third also successful since.
Apologies I missed Meydan yesterday as other things took priority but hope to engage in the carnival soon.
good luck to allIstabraq …..*laughs* don’t think annoying was my sentiment as LR and jockey parted company!
I know these things happen but one has to take it on the chin and move on.
Not putting forward a bet today but a rather interesting ‘fast track qualifier’ is on Kemptons evening card featuring Rohaan,a horse that has his own thread,and his last time out conqueror the as yet unbeaten Bravado.
With Mighty Gurkha under a penalty for winning a Gp 3 setting a reasonable standard to aim at maybe giving clues to finals day at Lingfield?
good luck to allAlthough I’ve been keeping track of the racing since my last post things have conspired and not allowed the time to make my views known on certain runners.I could have of course posted here but doing so with hindsight carry’s no weight and is very dismissive as acting before the event is the only thing that should be considered.Have my eye on an interesting runner at Meydan for tomorrow but that will depend on bookies playing ball and offering decent odds for the risk entailed.However believe SMOKEY E/W is worth an interest today provided odds of 5/1 or better can be achieved or doing a ‘place’ bet on the exchanges.With limited evidence as regard turf it’s not by any means sure to say the filly being put forward for your consideration is better on synthetics but it’s beyond any doubt to date that she acts well on such surfaces.Progressive since going handicapping was successful last time out over this course & distance from a very disadvantageous draw,showed great determination to win in a blanket finish.There’s every reason to believe the 2lb rise won’t stop this filly from being in the shake up again.
good luck to allGoing to Meydan for a selection today with the bookies only just about playing fair with prices.
(looking for 5/1 personally)
Although this gelding has been successful over a longer trip indeed all his previous runs with the exception of last time out have involved such races his first try at the minimum produced numbers that were head & shoulders above anything registered over other trips,with his RPR also being right up there among the best.Showing distinct promise as a juvenile for Owen Burrows ETISALAT e/w didn’t live up to the early signs and was moved to his present handler in Feb ’19 where he’s been prominently been campaigned on dirt.The few chances he’s been given on turf have shown,to me,that he’s better than so far appearing.Last time out led one to believe he has a future as a sprinter in this sort of race although I wouldn’t like to say if the selection could hold his own against some of the big boys in this division in the more richly endowed contests which are run at the Carnival.
good luck to allMeydan running easily explained in my opinion Etisalat just didn’t have anything on his side of the course to tow him into the race.I think he’s better than this.
Today going for a horse I liked a lot as a juvenile who started his 3yo campaign successfully then for whatever reason the wheels came off big time!
Occasional flashes of his previous good form would shine through during this time in the wilderness until of late and a switch to synthetic surfaces.BRIAN THE SNAIL has left his previous attempts on the a/w well behind in recent runs registering his best numbers since his 2nd & 3rd career starts when catching the eye of Godolphin.Although the selection being put forward for consideration is untried on fibresand his handler knows the surface well and would trust his judgement.To me the selection’s overpriced @ 4/1 in this field considering the strength of opposition faced recently and expect a late and telling challenge to succeed.
good luck to allFeels good to get a selection back in the winners enclosure but must admit Shallow Hal ran him closer than expected.
I won’t try to explain it because I just can’t about the horse I’m putting forward for your consideration this evening.Last time out VENTURA LIGHTNING e/w registered numbers head and shoulders above anything recorded before which just quite literally blew all previous ones out of the water.Following two juvenile wins in a novice & minor event was immediately upped into Group/Listed company where frankly this colt cut no ice.After more disappointing runs in his early 3yo campaign had wind surgery before running quite well on return over 3 months later.Tried over 5f then 7f was eventually returned to his best trip last time out and with the aid of a tongue tie perhaps showed his handler what he’s capable of as rivals from that race haven’t done badly in follow up contests.One concern I do have is over the selections draw thus the e/w and the current drift in the market.
The final event at Meydan will be watched with interest as I believe it could field possible useful future investments.
good luck to all
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