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With my original selection now withdrawn I’m having to go to my alternative.
This horse never came close to scoring as a juvenile beating 2 of his 35 opponents before being gelded.Lost his maiden tag the first time of asking as a 3yo while rated a lowly 55 he still didn’t set the world on fire winning one of his next five contests.Wind surgery ended his 3yo campaign with his record standing at 2/9 starting his final race off a handicap mark of 69.Kept exclusively to the minimum trip since then TONE THE BARONE has been successful in 6 of his last 8 contests and been consistently climbing the handicap.Last time I mentioned this gelding I said I passed him over because he hadn’t registered the numbers I considered were needed for a horse of his lofty status.Boy how he proved himself last time registering career high numbers by some considerable margin and remaining unbeaten on the a/w.While I have concern as regard his draw I believe the pace won’t be that strong and will play into his hands as chief rival Venturous is best off a really strong pace.My expectations are as the field quickens off the bend into the straight a nice gap will be left for the selection to exploit.
good luck to allApologies about being ‘missing in action’ but I haven’t felt too good this last week or so.Having checked with the NHS a nice young lady after talking me through a long list of questions informed me ‘I was most unlikey to be suffering from covid’
But whatever it was it knocked the stuffing out of me and left me bed ridden!
Although aching from head to toe I tried to log on a couple of times with each time my efforts being defeated.This morning I was finally able to overcome the aching muscles and drag myself to the keyboard.I want to put forward DILIGENT LADY at Dunstall Park this evening.Sorry no usual write up,but I would urge anyone interested to watch her last race on the atr site,replays are free.
However there’s another reason for my posting today the Ian Davies thread …….PSYCHOLOGICAL TEST which brought back a long forgotten memory from the recesses of my mind when I still had to work for a living.Whiling away the night my friend & I would discuss very many different topics usually from the current affairs of the day.
Out of the blue he proceeds to tell of this Aussies who claimed to have the ‘ultimate’ question to whether a person had psychotic tendencies.
The situation is this.
At a funeral you see a rather attractive wo/man you want to get to know better….how can you make sure you meet again?
I shall leave you reader to debate ….and tell you my solution in due course.
good luck to allJust how attractive are we talking kid?
I know what the psycho approach is here, and she’d have to be worth it.
VtC
How awesome are the forces of nature which can rage with fury yet also deliver a individual snowflake of such design that no other falling from the sky will be the same?.We are all overwhelmed by the most simple to the most complex of emotions.
The question’s not your attraction to that other person but to what lengths you are prepared to go to in order to enable that second meeting?
My response took less than a minute to conclude and perhaps portrayed more of me than I thought possible!
……..KILL A CLOSE RELATIVE OF THE DECEASED ……. thus another funeral for them to attend.
Entirely logical to my mind then and even now although I’m not sure all would agree?
Ponder,digest and reply if you wish.
good luck to allMy recovery from the recent bout of illness has left me it seems with a tiring legacy thus this being my first selection for some time.The gelding being put forward for your consideration first caught my eye as a rather late foal during his juvenile year who I thought had the potential to become a half decent handicapper given favourable conditions.A progressive 3yo campaign saw MARNIE JAMES e/w depart for Meydam where for whatever reason he just didn’t come back as the same horse.There were a few bright spots on return to the UK but these were far out weighted by the bad,changing stables during this time did signal an improvement in the geldings overall form.This was followed by the most recent break of over a year away from racing,Oct 2019 until his recent run at Chelsmford when registering numbers which to my mind don’t make him the rank outsider of this party.
I have just taken the long odds e/w available as I believe he’s more than capable of outrunning his present price for new connections having swapped stable in January.
good luck to allApologies about Marnie James ….left at the gate and no chance after.
But it’s an entirely different question which I wish to address following the betting to this race.Although Tone the Barone may have been on form to be said to have good chances of landing the prize given his stall,however I was utterly amazed when the horse was quoted as a odds on shot partly I believe because of the rider.There’s no doubt that Ryan Moore can be counted as one of the best jockey’s around but does this fact unduly influence the price punters are prepared to accept?
With a largely progressive profile his ride in this contest to my mind was reaching a plateau and until signs are shown of a resumption on the upside one had to consider further improvement as unlikely.But the horse in question was backed down to 8/11 at one stage which I must admit I laid on the exchanges as I considered too short to reflect any true odds.
Would be interested in hearing of others views on the factors affecting the prices offered by bookies and those accepted by punters.
good luck to allAn intriguing handicap at Lingfield caught my eye on Monday which promises.maybe,to throw up some useful sorts.However I find the bookmakers current odds more than a little questionable as relating to certain runners chances in this sprint.The favourite Diligent Harry stands too short in my book for what’s been achieved in the maiden & novice events he’s contested with those beaten failing to,in my opinion,give any solid base to the form and nothing better than average numbers to back up his claims.A handicap of 90 to me looks harsh and it would come as no surprise to me to see him struggle off this mark.I will confess with such a lightly raced individual we may not have seen the best but on the evidence available I remain to be convinced.Similar comments can also be said of the unbeaten Popmaster a colt who’s produced very ordinary numbers in his appearances so far.Two horses that have registered numbers that warrant respect are Bedford Flyer & SECRET HANDSHEIKH e/w who both recorded career high figures last time.Bedford flyer is passed over for the following reasons…the one attempt beyond the minimum trip he faded badly at the conclusion,been off the course since late November and current stable form doesn’t inspire confidence.The selection being put forward for your consideration hasn’t looked back since the gelding op last Sept.Although all this geldings runs lately have been at Southwell I wouldn’t hold this against him as his very astute trainer is one I regard as having a bright future.The second & third from his last outing were given weight and beaten over 3L but both perhaps more significantly were successful next time out.All this leads me to believe the selection can continue improving and further enhance his progressive profile.
good luck to allBest day’s racing of the year at Dunstall Park and today’s the first time I’ve missed it in years.It’s also a time I put aside betting only in sprints as the card contains very good competitive contests with lively betting markets.Although lately it’s not lived up to previous years the Lincoln trail in my book is always something to take note of as regard other big spring handicaps when the turf season commences.Being a 7yo and only having 15 races under his belt makes BORN TO BE ALIVE e/w an interesting contender in my eyes especially having registered career high numbers when successful at Kempton last time.This was his third run back having been away from racing for two & a half years and probably his best sequence of results since debuting as a 3yo.
The feature event on the card the Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes marks Mums Tipple first attempt beyond 6f since trying the Guineas trip on his 3yo debut.A interesting contender for me will be the bin Suroor colt Raaeb who if fit could be showing improvement on that so far displayed.The sprint at 3.15 looks too open for me to get involved although I will admit liking the chances of top weight Summerghand who has consistently run well in valuable races under big burdens and could be seen running on to snatch a place over this course & distance at the start of the month.
good luck to allThank you gentlemen,nice to get one back in the winners enclosure.
Ever since I first set out to collect the data my current selection method is based on a decade ago,doing the analysis,followed by a process of trial & error before testing the information working out what would provide a viable selection method.
Much to my surprise I found that it worked over all distances and providing the individual concerned acted on the prevailing underfoot conditions a change of ground,from which it gained it’s rating,didn’t invalidate it’s selection.
Unfortunately here’s where I made my mistake in trying to be too flexible with the numbers and the selections last time out run.
If I remember correctly around 23% of the horses that were qualifiers in the original data set were last time out winners but provided about 40-45% of all next time out winners.I was also too lenient with my use of the numbers and if I had stuck to the par I had worked to in the data collection many losers would have been avoided.
Also I believe my dogmatic approach to stay only with sprinters to be in error which nagged at me throughout the years as my curiosity had me checking out handicaps such as the Hunt Cup & Britannia at Royal Ascot and the Northumberland Plate etc and wincing as I watched horses that qualified winning or gaining places at big prices.
So I have decided to bite the bullet and although I will be sticking to my numbers based selection method…..will be much more forceful with myself in employing the tried & tested information which came out of my analysis and produced the greatest proportion of winners to runners.
We kick off tomorrow with UNITED FRONT.
good luck to allI wouldn’t say they went slow on Thursday evening but anyone taking their dog for a walk could have outpaced the runners in this contest.Allowing the leader to dictate all at their desired pace definitely went against the selection who couldn’t quite peg him back.I would be a bit surprised if this form was confirmed later in the season.
The Irish turf season kicks off today at the Curragh and have a selection that ticks all the right boxes for me.TEED UP e/w didn’t see the track as a juvenile but had a most profitable and progressive 3yo campaign winning precisely 50% of the races he contested.Kept to around a mile during 2020 I think today’s trip is a good starting point to kick off the current season as to me looks as though 10f might not be beyond this gelding later on.Of course at this time of year a lot has to be taken on trust as regard the horse’s fitness and ready to run to something like expectations.Although taking until his third attempt to lose the maiden tag this gelding has done nothing but improve since.One of this afternoon’s rivals beat the selection on his penultimate start but since then he’s registered better numbers which encourage me to believe he’s capable of turning the tables on that opponent.Ground or trip shouldn’t be any problem so hopefully looking forward to gaining at least a place today.
good luck to alllol …guess the ‘report card’ would read something like ….Must do better?
Currently investigating possibles from a number of qualifiers down to run at the weekend.
good luck to allHow quickly things can change when I looked at entries for this weekends racing I found multiple qualifiers spread over about half a dozen races.Come today we are down to but a single race although we do have more than a single qualifier to consider.Probably not much surprise when I tell you it’s the Lincoln Handicap that our selection will be running in tomorrow.While Eastern World is well fancied in the betting market this is much tougher than the geldings recent win in Meydan and having failed in similar races last year is passed over off a rather high looking handicap mark.Next in the betting of those that meet my par to qualify would be Brentford Hope who I’m swerving on account of the ground and seems to need a run after a lay off.On his only try on ground quicker than soft he was well beaten although this did come after a 270 day break,so perhaps one may give him the benefit of the doubt however he does reappear tomorrow following a 162 day absence.The third horse to qualify is the one I’m putting forward for your consideration and to me looks overpriced.The Richard Hannon trained OUZO e/w didn’t win as a juvenile but soon made up for lost time winning three of his first four races in a good 3yo campaign which sadly tailed off in November of that year.Ran with credit last season in some very hot handicaps being successful on his final outing at York with the form being upheld with the second & fourth winning next time out.Having run well following a lengthy absence previously I believe he’s the value option in this race and expecting a good show.
good luck to allHave always liked this Lingfield meeting since it’s inception as it makes a nice climax to the a/w with due reward for connections prepared to campaign good horses on synthetic surfaces.Although there are some very strong favourites running in various races I’m ready to take on one of the strongest,according to the betting market,with a horse I wondered about earlier due to his antics.Very lightly raced for a handicapper with eight ‘starts’ to his name but actually only participated in six of those with the form book reading a unseated rider & refused to race as the others.However a switch to Ralph Beckett and hey presto we have a new horse!Hard to fault what this gelding has done after moving stables being successful in all three outing progressing up the grades and the handicap.FOX DUTY FREE e/w has gone from 78 to 98 in those races,never looking likely to be beat in any,and I believe there’s still more to come and shouldn’t be underestimated.At double digit odds (taken 12/1 e/w) looks to be fair value for a progressive horse from a stable doing ok with a top jockey aboard with the only slight concern being a 92 absence.Have a bigger concern as I will have to watch ITV……not looking forward to their antics although the racing will be good compensation.
good luck to allExpected more from yesterday’s selection especially as it was strong in the market but never seemed to be going that well.Perhaps the run was needed,as they say time will tell.
Putting forward a colt by a horse I liked a lot,Ravens Pass,making his handicap debut off what may turn out to be a lenient mark.Although FOREST FALCON may not have strong form to his name the numbers registered when successful at Yarmouth last time suggest we have a serious horse on our hands capable of taking higher order.
Apologies for being brief but have errands to run.
good luck to all
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