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After watching the Doncaster race my selection was part of on Saturday,I just couldn’t believe my eyes!
During my deliberations the victor yesterday,Venturous,was dismissed along with most others as not meeting my criteria for winning.Later on hearing about how well this runner was supported in the betting market I returned for a second look.Even checked things after the race but still couldn’t find any evidence that would inspire a collapse in his price.
First a 7yo gelding so hardly likely to show dramatic improvement on what’s gone before.
Nothing much between turf & a/w form over 5f or 6f.
While had fair numbers on good/soft ground they were nothing to write home about and way down the list from his best.
Had achieved one place effort from six outings on ground recorded as soft,never having run on heavy previously.
Below his all time high handicap marks which were registered a number of years ago so I suppose one could argue he was off a lenient mark with Dawson claiming an extra 5lb off his back.However recent form didn’t in my book make him a likely candidate to win never mind in the fashion he did.
Taking into account all the above can anyone tell me why there was so much market support,aside from the fact in hindsight it proved correct,for this horse when what was in the public domain it just didn’t make sense?
If you took part would love to know your reasoning?
Nothing for today nor until later in the week where from now on I will be turning my attentions to the a/w as the turf season runs down I find it harder to find qualifying candidates as selections.Maybe in future because of deteriorating weather conditions which are likely at this time of year I will swap to the a/w from the end of September.
good luck to allWas really badly hampered in his last run but the handicapper still dropped him a pound so perhaps they thought he was well handicapped
Ty for your response Istabraq,but even without being hampered Venturous looked held in that race and may have finished third at best in my opinion which for me still doesn’t explain things.
This time of year is never easy with the transition from turf to synthetic surfaces and having to burrow deeper into the form book to discover whether any particular horse can be expected to show improved form simply because of returning to the a/w after a turf campaign.Think I may have just found such an opportunity.
Having just looked at the Lingfield race I earlier this evening invested on WAR GLORY e/w @ 10/1 I find the selection being put forward for your consideration now a best priced 6/1.Why this Hannon horse rather than the Ryan Moore mount Oh This Is Us which won last time and seems to be at the top of his game?
First allow me to point out the selection performs to a higher level of form on an a/w surface.
Although the gelding stays 8f his numbers indicate superior form over this trip.With all but his latest outing ,since racing resumed,on turf and last time at a trip beyond his best I’m expecting an improved display from him because of the drop in distance and a course he’s always run well over.
3 runs over course & distance 2nd btn a nose,2nd btn head and beating Gifted Mater decisively in this race last year achieving career high numbers.
good luck to allAs the turf season limps away into the notebooks probably not one most of us will remember fondly with all what’s happened and still so very much in the balance as regard the future of many courses and indeed racing itself,will things look the same when hopefully clear of the virus next March a new season starts?
Perhaps a simplistic view but I’m an optimist with Brexit complete and the country as a whole can look forward to a bright future along with the sport we all love.
Apologies for the dearth of selections being offered form this quarter but the autumn being a transitional period for both weather & racing it’s always been slow since I adapted my present format not really picking up until the New Year,however I do like to take in the Breeders Cup if something viable can be found.This morning have taken the 10/1,BOG available on four places,on FRANK’S ROCKETTE e/w in the sprint.A very late May foal I’m quite amazed how well she’s done in her career to date following a promising juvenile campaign when she was stepped up in distance on each of the three starts.As a 3yo she’s been kept to sprint trips although last time was probably what you would call extended (six & half furlongs).Having been progressive throughout the year there’s no reason in my mind why she shouldn’t be involved in the business end here and consider this filly to be overpriced.The favourite on the other hand in my opinion looks too short considering what he’s achieved.Although unbeaten in his three races to date looking at the contests concerned and the rivals he defeated I get the distinct impression that a number of tonight’s rivals could have emulated the feat.
Off for a late breakfast now!
good luck to allJust a quick word on Frank’s Rockette my selection in the Breeders Cup Sprint,traveled well enough until the home straight then found nowhere to go stuck behind a wall of horses ahead.Not saying she would have won but maybe grabbed a place for us,such are the trials of racing.
In these rather lean times have to hunt around for horses outside my usual handicaps and have uncovered an intriguing contender for the Golden Rose Stakes a Listed race which concludes the Lingfield card.Although one of the lowest rated in this contest to my mind has yet to reach anything like his full potential.Having won both his starts showing progressive form from his first to second race LAMPANG e/w ran too poorly when next seen in the Rockingham Stakes at York,for which he was sent off the even money favourite,to be true.That was the last we saw of the colt for just over a year when he reappeared up at Edinburgh and registered the kind of numbers that suggest a very useful horse having been off the track for so long.That contest was on heavy going and at the minimum trip where he stayed on into third late in the race.Today’s 6f should suit better although didn’t seem particularly troubled by the tempo over 5f.For me this colt’s value @ 16/1 and expect him to outrun his price and collect a share of the prize money on offer.
good luck to allCertainly did kaiser,thought it was very nice of the bookies to give such odds,I was on BOG!
Never ceases to amaze me how bookmakers & indeed some punters can underestimate the returns you can achieve from investing on a each way basis.In this race @ SP the favourite paid 5/2 for winning but you got 5/1 a place on the second and you had 3/4 places running for you which to my mind gives you a much better chance of long term success.
Although getting first past the post is nice I would rather collect slow & steady and bank a profit at the end of the year than be moaning about ‘the one that got away’ or losing out in photo finishes.Racing is a game of opinions which is why it’s so diverse and interesting and for me more of an intellectual challenge with a dash of intuition thrown in for good measure.
Off to watch Cheltenham on tv now.
good luck to allOH MY GOD!
Can’t believe the news I’ve received from Timeform this morning …..NO MORE RACEHORES annuals.
Having suffered like most business’ from the pandemic news reached me that with certain exceptions all printed material’s are to cease.The exceptions I understand being racecards which will continue to be sold at the course and editions of Horses to Follow via Amazon besides these everything else will be in a digital format.
This will take time to sink in for me having been a subscriber to the Racehorses annuals since 1979 so guess I’m going to have the change the habits of a lifetime in adjusting to this new way of presenting things.Good news is though that the annuals may not be lost completely as Timeform say options for continuing it into the future are being explored.
A very sad day for me!
good luck to allSorry but don’t have time for a detailed write up but taking EXALTED ANGEL e/w in the last at Newcastle,@ 5/1,BOG and most bookies offering 4 places would consider myself very unfortunate if we didn’t get at least our money returned.
good luck to allNo damage done with the last selection with the 5/1 available at the time of posting returning our stake.
Although Documenting has a good record on this surface and track I’m siding with the better overall form of SHINE SO BRIGHT who put up a very good performance over 6f which I consider to be too short a trip to show his best when last seen.Apologies for being so brief.
good luck to allAlthough the bet I’ve just struck on Betfair (sportsbook),isn’t anything like my usual kind of investment it seemed such good value that it would be rude not to accept the challenge.A recent import from France MEMORY DREAM currently one of the huge outsiders for the feature event at Dunstall Park tonight is the selection I’ve invested a PLACE BET @ 14/1 for Four places.This gelding was a very late foal and has pieces of decent form from France which suggest to me he’s overpriced and also believe the drop in trip will be in his favour.
The choice is yours whether you wish to follow me on this but at this time of year found I’ve had to be inventive as this is by far the hardest period to just find a decent bet.
good luck to allLet one run the other day as I was unsure about the temperament considering the gelding antics under the previous trainer and of course when off fav winning nicely.
Such things are sent to try us and can be almost heartbreaking!
Putting forward a selection today for your consideration who’s been progressive since his return to the fray and expect GOWANLAD e/w to continue his progress in this better company.Although this colt failed to cut much ice as a juvenile his form did show improvement from race to race which was perhaps predictable given an April foaling date.Off the course for eleven months the selection lost his maiden tag at the first attempt of the current season in a novice event over course & distance running out a comfortable victor.Made his handicap debut just over two weeks later winning,in my opinion,with a shade more in hand than the official margin would suggest blowing all his previous numbers out of the water by a clear margin.Although this will be by far the colt’s sternest test to date the progressive profile says to me he’s worth following after only being raised 3lb.There are a number of possible challengers and other rivals who can boast better form but none to me tell the same story as the selection.
good luck to allThink I’m going to call it a day for tipping this year and try to work out how I can take a fresh look at my methods and see if I get back to my RaceCaller days when I stayed with sprinters and that extra bit of work enabled me to bet across lower grade racing,which for me means class 4 & 5 as beyond this I would consider too unreliable.This would in turn open up opportunities and I believe make for a more consistent & regular supply of tips to this thread.
Sorry if you think my changing tack shows me as disorganized or unable to remain on course but I really think it’s for the best as it produced a regular flow of bets & returns.
Your comments would be welcome.
I stand to be corrected but for me this would be a first.In Gowanlad’s race yesterday a runner was withdrawn from the contest and the reason given as UNSUITABLE GROUND.Newcastle has tapeta which in my opinion is one of the fairest surfaces you are likely to find ……..unsuitable ground…….pull the other one,it’s got bells on.
good luck to allSince I took a back seat earlier this month have read again my Clive Holt books laying out his methods for selecting and betting on horses via the formula laid out within those volumes.Despite being very simple applied with some research into the horses indicated as having the best chances one can quickly narrow down contenders to firm bets,if indeed there’s a bet to be had,but again I must impress upon the reader that ‘all that glitters is not gold’.Thus as a punter you must learn to walk away if things don’t fall into place and you’re satisfied the bet you are making is worth the time & effort and most importantly you aren’t having a bet for the sake of ‘having a bet’.
I’m coming round to the idea that this along with my current selection process may be a happy combination and be what I’m looking for as early results do show applied with caution a healthy return can be obtained.So come January I should be inline for another profitable year,so all that remains is for me to wish all of you a …..
MERRY CHRISTMAS & a prosperous New Year….
when we can put all the trials and tribulations of 2020 behind looking forward to a bright future.
good luck to allIn a little under an hour from now (the time now is almost a quarter past ten) I will achieve one of the few ambitions I have left in life …..that is to see the UK freed from the insidious shackles of Brussels.
For me this journey started as a teenager,yes I’ve been anti EU for more years than I care to recall,at the time of the 1975 vote to decide whether we stayed within the common market as it was known then.Although barely old enough to cast a vote I took it very seriously and fiddled my way through the the pro’s & cons as I saw them.My final decision was that things were not in the UK’s favour to stay as we,to me,seemed to be giving away lots and receiving very little in return.
Ever since that day long before Nigel Farage and Ukip became household names I had waged a war against what were impossible odds devouring all the information I could about the bureaucrats & Brussels and their grasp for power.How many friends I’ve lost along the way I couldn’t say but for me it was much more than disseminating information on the encroachment of the Brussels administration into the people’s everyday lives …for me it was more akin to George Orwell’s book 1984 and the creation of an Orwellian society.
The signing of the Treaty of Rome way back in 1957 founded what has become the EU today and progressed through the years whether this be by hook or by crook to ever closer integration.One of the more recent developments has been the Euro supposedly to help make trade easier between member states of the EU.However there’s a much more sinister motive behind the introduction of this new currency.
What does EVERY member state of the EU have,if they use the euro or another currency,that Brussels lacks?
Quite simply a tax system to fund their administrations.
Without this step the bureaucrats can kiss goodbye to the dream of a Federalist Europe ….can you imagine the chaos of attempting to use different currencies …….thus this is a most important step and I thank everyday Brown’s obstinacy with Blair and keeping us out of the euro.
When David Cameron announced a referendum would be held on our continued membership of the EU I couldn’t believe my ears,but with all the cards stacked against people like myself I knew it would be a uphill struggle.With opinion poles swinging one way then the other it became apparent during campaigning that the margin either way wouldn’t be great with the remainers and ‘project fear’ becoming ever more desperate as the clock ticked down to poling day.It wouldn’t be right of me if I didn’t give a special mention and vote of thanks to Eddie Izzard who put his weight behind remain and every time he did ….the leave pole took a jump up!
About a week before the vote the leave campaign was dealt a severe blow in my eyes with the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox and I felt sentiment would swing decisively behind remain if for no other reason than a sympathy vote.
On polling day night I settled down determined to watch the drama unfold hoping against hope that the UK public would see the EU for what it was.The first result in was as expected a win for remain but the night was young and still had far to go.If I remember correctly the second count in went to leave however it wasn’t the fact which way the vote had gone but the decisive margin of victory.I believe it was 4am before I retired to my bed feeling fairly confident than despite the odds ….WE WON!
Never believing extracting the UK from the EU would be easy I was taken aback by the vicious nature of some remain supporters and how they seemed to think they had the right to overturn the referendum’s result just because they disagreed with the outcome.Not in my wildest dreams could I think of the tricks & stunts they would try in order to block/reverse the referendum being acted upon.
After four and a half years through many torturous twists & turns we leave tonight.
If the mods will forgive my one little indiscretion …….
to Gina Miller,John Bercow,the parliamentarians,the BBC & others who saw fit to defy the referendum result…
UP YOURS WE LEAVE TONIGHT!
good luck to all
ps ..it’s now 3 mins past midnight Happy New Year
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