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Tails from the blackcountry II

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Viewing 15 posts - 121 through 135 (of 135 total)
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  • #1504469
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    Funny feeling as I write this as the last time i ‘took a break’ my return was to the same track as I’m putting forward a horse for tomorrow,namely Ascot.Anyway for your consideration I put forward FRESH e/w who seems to be to be on the upgrade.Unraced as a juvenile his handler has been keeping this colt busy since debuting in June.Although he failed to win either of the maidens or the novice event he contested in his first three races this was soon put right with the selection losing his maiden tag on handicap debut off a mark which perhaps looked on the high side for what he had achieved.A month break followed and then a rather tougher assignment at Doncaster for which the selection was sent off favourite.Travelling well in rear he just didn’t get going quick enough,making eye catching progress,to get involved in the shake up but finished nicely clear of the pack.This will be a step up in grade again but his numbers from Doncaster suggest he’s capable of getting involved at the business end of this contest.
    good luck to all

    #1504542
    Istabraq
    Participant
    • Total Posts 284

    that was unlucky, at least he placed :good:

    #1504582
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17713

    Unlucky Kid, good call

    #1504662
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    Thank you gentlemen,
    Always most frustrating when going down by such a short margin,however what’s more disappointing for myself is now the cat’s out of the bag about him and he will be listed as a future winner by bookies & punters alike without us being able to cash in first while still an unknown quantity.Can easily see him scaling greater heights perhaps even the a/w championships next year as a potential long term target?
    It’s good to be back and hopefully can squeeze a few more winners out of the turf season before I set my sights on a all weather campaign which I think will be more active than usual due to circumstances.Have also decided to go back to my most successful way of investing during the winter months.That would be using the same class of races as turf but due to the limited number of opportunities take in all races up to a mile.
    I was hoping to tell you about an investment I had lined up for Ascot today but the weather has put paid to that.
    Will look at the L’Abbaye @ Longchamp for a potential bet so may not have a completely blank w/e.
    Just a question I would like to float among people here,maybe even creating a thread,how do you like to bet?
    Do you prefer e/w to keep a regular return accumulating or the more irregular lumpy sums associated with win only?
    good luck to all

    #1504689
    Istabraq
    Participant
    • Total Posts 284

    I usually only bet EW when the fav is very short, eg 6\4 or less

    #1504828
    the kaiser
    Participant
    • Total Posts 19

    The only time i back e/w is on the place only market on betfair,otherwise usually win only,the way i really like to bet is matched betting on the bookies offers,when i can guarantee a profit,i guess with your experince you have done it,and been gubbed to death,i used up all the offers about six years ago and got gubbed at most bookies,but am having another go at some of the newer bookies,also its been so long since i last logged in some bookmakers might accept me as a new customer,fingers crossed im hoping that when you can no longer log in to a bookmaker your details have been wiped.welcome back by the way and off to a good fresh start, hopefully that e/w was a small profit for you.

    #1504893
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    Thank you for your comments gents.
    As you may have noticed I prefer to go each way with a decent price in play for the horse in question and have found in the long run the bits & pieces one picks up from the places gained makes up for what’s missed with a win only strategy,but with each to their own I won’t quibble how any particular reader of this tread chooses to invest.
    Counting all selections,for 2020,including Friday my own personal betting shows a 40% profit at the odds taken,while all selections put forward on this thread since it started as win only @ SP prices shows a 39% profit.While they match very close some selections put forward on the thread were advised at bigger prices at the time of posting so I suppose you could argue win only does have an edge overall but one must also take into account one’s temperament as I know some people can be uncomfortable without a regular return on their investments.
    After delving into the ins and outs of the L’Abbaye I’ve decided to put forward for your consideration KEEP BUSY e/w to reverse placings with the favourite.Despite staying further this filly’s record at the minimum trip is so consistent.Also having a late foaling date,mid April,there’s every reason to believe she’s still improving and capable of better.Why the change around in places I hear you ask?Glass Slippers will be positioned wide,stable & jockey form are not good at present and if attempting last years tactics of making nearly all is likely to blow up before reaching the final furlong.
    good luck to all

    #1505130
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    Well the Arc weekend started off with a the contaminated feed issue which,I’m sure,came as a shock to most people.Why do I mention this especially as it’s outside my main sphere of interest?After the mass withdraw of the O’Brien horses thought Enable was being touted at silly prices,too short,and so I laid her on the exchanges.As for Keep Busy I can’t say I was disappointed but hoped for at least a place.
    Today putting forward a progressive 3yo for your consideration who just quite simply will revel in the underfoot conditions at Leicester.AINSDALE was quite a late foal,May,who didn’t really get to grips with the racing game until the autumn of his juvenile campaign.With early runs over 6f showing promise but never quite getting home was dropped to the minimum trip in a valuable nursery at Chester,also upped in grade,for a very promising handicap debut.Took another big step forward when encountering soft ground for the first time at York when romping home to lose his maiden tag off a mark of 75.The selection registered two more wins,both at 5f on soft & heavy,to close the season recording his best set of numbers at that time.Reappeared recently after an 11 month break to register career high numbers at Haydock on good ground but can see him taking a real step forward on today’s underfoot conditions and reversing placing with the favourite.
    Thank you for your message Kiaser,I will be replying soon.
    good luck to all

    #1505384
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    While a return of a single win from fourteen attempts and that in a novice event isn’t my usual hunting ground but believe MIGHTY SPIRIT e/w is a much better filly than her record indicates.While she seems to act on all grounds it’s my belief that she needs softer ground to show her best,not that it’s a preferred surface but that it slows her rivals down.Spent her juvenile campaign in stakes or condition contests achieving somewhat mixed results.Going handicapping this season it’s only in the last couple of races that’s she’s shown just how capable a filly she is with two,in my view,very good results.During August at York 3rd behind Lady in France & Keep Busy,4th & 5th in L’Abbaye then last month behind Dark Shot at Leicester both times probably doing too much too early leaving little for the finish.Last season the selection being put forward for your consideration ran some of her best races in large fields so maybe the good pace of a handicap like this will bring out the hidden reserves of talent.Now off her lowest mark with an able claimer from a stable going well I’m hopeful that she’ll claim that long overdue second visit to the winners enclosure.
    good luck to all

    #1505589
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    Mighty Spirit ran well yesterday at a nice price hope people backed each way.
    Today’s race I’m putting forward a selection for is always a most difficult task as there are several qualifiers as potential investments everything could go wrong so won’t blame anyone who decides to sit this one out and watch from the sidelines.For me the strongest form comes from the ‘Bold Lad’ Premier handicap run at the Curragh just about this time last month.While I respect the winner I thought LAUGH A MINUTE e/w was a tad unlucky being blocked off when starting his run and had to be switched round the leaders to get a clear run and was finishing off well.The numbers registered were head & shoulders above anything achieved this year indeed since the time he was contesting Listed/Group races.Raised 2lb for that effort this gelding looks well handicapped and as he’s held up some luck in running will be needed.Earlier in his career his races were relatively spaced out and hoping the month off will have done the trick in preparing the selection for today’s race because to my eyes too little a time between events doesn’t seem best.
    good luck to all

    #1505710
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    You know the way at a particular course you never seem to get it right?
    For me York’s that course!
    Often wondered if I should just skip the York meetings but they offer such tempting races the most likely thing is I will soldier on and try to unravel the mystery to me that is York.
    Never had any such problems with today’s course,fell in love with the place on my first visit,and putting forward EYE OF THE WATER e/w for your consideration.Although this gelding has had a number of try’s above his last winning mark,some half a stone,he’s run so consistently the handicapper hasn’t seen fit to relent.However saying that he did register career high numbers last time at Salisbury.The apprentice that’s ridden the last few times is replaced by a seasoned jockey,Buick,which judging by his style of racing may be a wise move as all wins have been under a fully fledged jockey.The underfoot conditions aren’t a problem so expecting a good run.
    Also will be keeping an eye on Tawny Port.Thought of by many as an a/w horse he has a good record on grass and to my mind probably best at the minimum trip although has won over 6f on turf.However his record to date has shown comeback runs are not the geldings strong suit and will probably be nearer last than first.Definitely a horse for a a/w winter campaign for which I would guess this is a pipe opener?
    good luck to all

    #1505910
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    Does the name Kulbir Sohi mean anything to you?
    I include myself in the above question,but now I do following his outburst over Tranchee being beaten at York last weekend.He has appealed the result of the Coral Sprint Trophy and calls for the winner of the race in question to be disqualified due to Gulliver’s jockey,Martin Harley,exceeding the number of times a rider may use the whip.While I know the rules allow a jockey to be penalized for overusing but can’t recall anything that says a horse must be removed from it’s placing?
    I stand to be corrected if any are wiser to the rules.
    Call it what you want but I think it’s rather tasteless of Sohi to be calling for the connections of Gulliver to be stripped of the race over something they had no control of and couldn’t envisage.
    Personally I believe the rules on interference,rather than whip,need to be looked at as in my opinion under the present guidelines much greater travesties have occurred which have gone unpunished.You may not agree,as is your right,but I call Kulbir Sohi’s complaint a case of sour grapes.
    good luck to all

    #1505988
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    While in general recent form is the best guide to a horses chance in any particular race there can be exceptions to every rule.One of the things certain people in racing will attempt to drum home about a/w racing is that it’s different and you can’t confuse turf & a/w form to assess a runners ability crossing over from one to the other or back…I say hogwash!
    However there are certain horses that are specifically better on the a/w while showing only a minimum of form on turf.That’s the chance I’m taking tomorrow on NO NONSENSE e/w.If you think I’m contradicting myself with the two statements you may be right from your own prospective but treating them as different without clear evidence that a horse performs on synthetics to a higher or lower level than on turf in my opinion is plain wrong.
    Experts will tell you to treat them as two separate types of racing but I’ve found this not to be so without a clear cut case as even the mighty TimeForm have dropped giving horses two separate ratings for a/w & turf.
    Following his first three appearances the selection hasn’t been on the a/w since Jan 2019 when he put up above average numbers when winning a ‘fast track qualifier’ to gain entry to the a/w championship day card.Since then,often tried quite highly,only once has he show the same level of form in a Group 3 contest at Ascot behind Calyx.I’ve invested a small amount @ 18/1 e/w on the switch back to the a/w sparking a revival.The simple fact is that his a/w numbers make him a serious contender providing he can reproduce that earlier form,a risk I’m prepared to take at the price obtained.
    good luck to all

    #1506391
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    While writing the above post as Tuesday rolled into Wednesday I knew the selection if producing his earlier a/w form had a big chance off his present mark.Little did I suspect the bandwagon which led to his price being hammered.By the following morning,if I remember correctly,12/1 was the best offer available and this continued throughout the day with No Nonsense bouncing between 11/2 & 6/1 as the stalls were loaded.Then a horror show,he just plain refused to enter and in the end took no part.While I have no idea of the price you may have taken if like me you were on at big odds it was a most disappointing spectacle.All I can do is apologize to all that invested at having our hopes raised by the betting support only to be dashed by mulish antics from the gelding.
    However we move on to a race that did me proud last season with Count D’orsay but this year despite running well of late his numbers don’t stack up as well as Muscika or BROKEN SPEAR e/w.With Muscika being a last time out winner he would normally be on my radar however a deeper look sees the gelding hitting a brick wall when the handicapper lifts him over a mark in the high 80’s and despite many attempts has yet to break that barrier and can’t see any particular reason why it should happen today.Broken Spear too has problems mainly being two years since winning,Oct 2018.But this gelding has been running consistently well of late and been producing numbers at the top end of his form although in my opinion the gelding’s better over the minimum trip rather than the 6f he’s been raced over.He seems not to be inconvenienced by any type of ground and although stable form isn’t good at present if things go to plan I hope to at least hit the frame and fingers crossed see the selection being put forward for your consideration in the winners enclosure.
    good luck to all

    #1506797
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 173

    Must admit to being slightly surprised at Count D’orsay’s run bouncing back readily from a poor show last outing.Maybe an attempt at a Listed event next time,although a try at qualifying for the a/w Championship next spring might be tempting for connections?
    Broken Spear finished off his race closing on the places but just failing to gain third.His record at near misses is starting to resemble a certain other horse mentioned here not too long ago and must say I don’t like the idea of repeating my mistake with him as I did earlier.
    As the turf season enters it’s winding down phase and watching Ascot at Saturday made me wonder if such events are needed at the end of a grueling season for top class animals as for me Champions Day,as they like to name it,is anything but with the weather likely to have a more than passing influence on the outcome of the races.
    So did the ‘best’ horses win?
    I did kick myself after the sprint for not investing a little e/w on Glen Shiel as I thought the 16/1 price was insulting and didn’t reflect the geldings chance.
    However the bandwagon moves on and going north to Newcastle to put forward last time out winner INTRINSIC BOND e/w for your consideration.For an April 2nd foal this gelding is progressing nicely and following a short break after a hectic 4 outings in just over a month achieved career high numbers on return over Redcars minimum trip giving weight away all round.His only encounter with today’s surface was a winning one back in March in a novice event on seasonal bow and although it was a bloodless victory came well clear of his field to show he’d trained on.Stable & jockey are presently doing ok so no issues on that front and with only a 3lb rise in the weights to contend with believe we can look forward to a good showing.
    good luck to all

Viewing 15 posts - 121 through 135 (of 135 total)
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