Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[moehat]

Rob. Have you noticed how well Adam Nicol is doing with his horse Wise Eagle? We watch him exercising his horses on the beach although he does take them to the Dobbins yard sometimes.

[robnorth]

I follow Adam on Twitter and have noticed he’s doing nicely. Lovely footage of his horses training on the sands at Bamburgh.

[robnorth]

Fortescue was a nice 8/1 winner at Sandown for the top rated yesterday on what was quite a tough day, Mokaatil second rated won at 10/1. Volcano was nice winner at 9/2 for the shortest price approach which continues to serve me well, and just as I complete this J’ai Froid makes it 2 from 2 at 7/2.

Some fair racing tomorrow then just the one race that concerns me at Cheltenham on Tuesday, that being the Ultima (National Hunt) Handicap Chase. The 4yo handicap is a real minefield for the handicapper with the majority coming out of non-handicaps and I keep it at more than arm’s length!

MONDAY MARCH 15
Stratford
2.03 Orrisdale 135; Accordingtogino 133; Ramonex 129; Subcontinent 123
2.33 Will Sting 145; Global Society 141; Harefield 140; Cawthorne Lad 139
Plumpton
2.47 Bailarico 145; Buckhorn George 133; Moroder 127; Republican 126
Taunton
3.40 Beau De Brizais 143; Coup De Pinceau 141; Skipthecuddles 140

The latter could be a good opportunity for Beau De Brizais who might have had a dig at the Cheltenham Cross-Country.

TUESDAY MARCH 16
Cheltenham
2.30 Nietzsche 175; Pym 166; Admiral’s Secret 164; Aye Right 160

I’ve discussed the chances of these in the Ultima thread on the Cheltenham Festival 2021 Section.

Results continue to encourage with top rated near to break even since the start of the year and around 50% winners in the top 3. Very pleasing operating in the competitive area of the better class handicaps.

[Venture to Cognac]

Rob, this thread has been a cracker, plenty of winners on the go.

[robnorth]

Thanks Bobby, I bought the book that this thread is based on as part of ‘job lot’ for a tenner back in 1980. I read through my book collection during the first lockdown, and period without racing and thought I’d give the method a go. Retirement from work helped as it can take 2 or 3 hours for ratings on busy days, and I’ve been doing this alongside an OU Earth Sciences course. I wasn’t sure that I would make a profit, more curious about how accurate the ratings would be. The returns have been a great surprise and possibly the method works because it uses form in a slightly different way to others, and my own betting returns have been better than for a few years. The chances are I’m the only person in the UK calculating these ratings as I can find no reference to the method elsewhere on the net. On the basis of results so far I suppose I’m duty bound to carry on…

[robnorth]

One winner from top 3 in 4 races today, but Coup De Pinceau at 4/1 gave me a profitable day as a ‘Shortest Priced’ selection when I did my check of the market.

A reminder of tomorrow’s Cheltenham ratings:

TUESDAY MARCH 16
Cheltenham
2.30 Nietzsche 175; Pym 166; Admiral’s Secret 164; Aye Right 160

… and Wednesday’s ratings for Cheltenham and the All-weather…

WEDNESDAY MARCH 17
Cheltenham
2.30 Breffniboy(Res) 168; Guard Your Dreams 167; Kashari 165; Birchdale 165; Garo De Juilley 164
4.15 Zanza 178; Not That Fuisse 171; Bun Doran 168; Amoola Gold 164
Lingfield
3.15 Young Fire 113; Total Commitment 113; Beat Le Bon 112; Keyser Soze 112; Count Otto 111 (split those…, and don’t discount the other runner as I couldn’t rate Shine So Bright as no recent handicap form!)**
Kempton
7.20 Cleonte 11; Thai Terrier 100; Koeman 95; Al Kout 95

My assessment of the highly rated Cheltenham contenders are summarised in the relevant Cheltenham Festival 2021 race thread. There are some strong contenders amongst them and I’ll be disappointed if I don’t catch a decent winner or two.

In truth with only one or two handicaps a day Cheltenham isn’t the most taxing meeting to deal with, a lot 0f the form coming from a small group of races so figures easy to cross reference. The weekend on the other hand looks potentially busy with one of my favourite races headlining, The Midlands Grand National.

** First winter for a good while I’ve given much time to the All-Weather but it’s been most rewarding. The same horses run against each other time and time again, it’s decent quality racing and form works out very well. Although low on numbers that 3.15 at Lingfield on Wednesday wouldn’t be out of place at any of the best turf meetings.

[robnorth]

Well away from any success in the one race at Cheltenham today, though Nietzsche ran passably well given that he yanked the jockey’s arms out for much of the way over a trip that was stretching his stamina. wouldn’t count him out over 3 miles in future if settling better.

Compiling the figures for Cheltenham is a pleasing exercise, but making head or tail of them for betting purposes is another matter! Some nigh on unfathomable events at The Festival* on Thursday, though at the prices we only need to crack one. Huntsmans Son has a decent record off a lay off and worthy of consideration at early odds of 40/1 off a rest.
At Chelmsford Songkran comes off a last of 4 at Lingfield, but that was a very decent contest and this is easier.

With Cheltenham and Chelmsford on the same day predictive text is thrown into a tizzy compiling my results spreadsheet!

THURSDAY MARCH 18
Cheltenham
1.55 Ask Dillon 162; Potters Hedger 162; Champagne Platinum 161; Come On Teddy 161; Unowhatimeanharry 160; No Comment 160
3.40 Huntsmans Son 172; Maypole Class 169; Eamon An Cnoic 166; Happy Diva 163; Sully D’Oc AA 163
4.50 Almazhar Garde 165; Morning Vicar 164; Storm Control 154; Double Shuffle 153; Another Venture 153
Chelmsford
6.25 Songkran 109; Society Red 103; Habit Rouge 98

* Yes, we all know the ‘Real Festivals’ are Ayr and Perth in April!

[robnorth]

Forgive my indulgence, here are the ratings for the BK Racing Grand National Handicap Chase.

HEXHAM
2.20 King’s Eclipse 120; Love The Leader 116; Buddha Scheme 115; Dontdelay 113

Happy to big up the sponsor BK Racing, an on course betting outfit willing to dig into their pocket in hard times. Been chatting to them on Twitter about their support of this event.

[robnorth]

Two tough events at Cheletenham, where a significant number of runners don’t gain a rating, while there are some crackable looking handicaps elsewhere.

FRIDAY MARCH 19

Cheltenham
1.55 Strong Glance 171; Milkwood 166; Edwardstone 165; Ciel De Neige 165; Fifty Ball 163
4.50 Whatsupwithyou 158; Golden Taipan 157; Amour De Nuit 149; Mill Green 149; Frontal Assault 149

Fakenham
3.30 Smuggler’s Bonus 144; Mahlermade 138; Defuture Is Bright 121
4.05 Dave And Bertie 135; If Karl’s Berg Did 133; Glan Y Gors 132; Xcitations 131

Lingfield(AW)
2.45 Pop Dancer 109; Nigel Nott 108; Lihou 106; Ornate 105; Tone The Barone 105 (A typically tight Lingfield sprint handicap, 5 runners all with a shout)
3.20 Toro Dorado 95; Renardeau 95; Great Esteem 94

[robnorth]

Cheltenham has proved a complete mystery, though weren’t far away in the County Hurdle. Irish horses seem around 7lbs better off across the board so it’s been a hard job for GB horses to hold their own, but even if I take just the Irish horses I’m not an awful lot nearer. Just one of those meetings where preparation and character is everything and horses are so fit that figures don’t matter so much.

Back to slightly more mundane fayre tomorrow and Sunday:

SATURDAY

Fontwell
1.35 Princess T 131; Sorbet 127; Brown Bullet 126

Kempton
2.40 Son Of Camas 151; Switch Hitter 150; Breffniboy 149; Debestyman 145
3.15 Smarty Wild 147; Vinnie The Hoddie 147; Falco Blitz 141; Whatswrongwithyou 139

Uttoxeter
1.50 Tight Call 138; Steal A March 131; Hot Ryan 130; Saint Dalina 128; Milvale 128
2.25 Shanty Alley 144; Ask Me Early 143; Eclair Surf 135; Seemorelights 134
3.00 Nickolson 150; Thibault 150; Rockadenn 147; Illegal Model 147; Dan McGrue 147
3.35 Prime Venture 166; Final Nudge 166; Seaston Spirit 165; Highland Hunter 160; Captain Drake 160

Newcastle
4.20 Serious Ego 155; Big Bad Bear 146; Mick Maestro 145; Pay The Piper 137

Wolverhampton
6.00 Gabrial The Devil 107; Treacherous 104; Ledham 99; Futuristic 97
7.30 Final Option 108; Yes Always 103 Dubai Quality 95; Al Rasmah 95

SUNDAY MARCH 21

Carlisle
3.25 Gardefort 144; Captain Chaos 141; Late Romantic 136
4.30 Kayf Adventure 142; Grange Ranger 126; Realm Keeper 125; Overworkedunderpaid 125

Chepstow
4.15 Coded Message 138; Valse Au Taillons 131; Our Dot’s Baby 127

[robnorth]

A miserable week results wise with Cheltenham an impenetrable fog, but livened up a couple of top rated Saturday winners, Switch Hitter 11/2 and best of all Final Option 12/1. Last one was particularly pleasing, having been quite highly tried but now in a reasonable class.

A quiet week in the offing, with small fields the order of the day, before the Lincoln and some decent jumps handicaps on Saturday. All Weather takes a rest which is a bit of a pain for me since it’s been serving me well in recent times. A decent set of cards to look forward to on Good Friday April 2nd.

MONDAY MARCH 22
Plumpton
2.18 Special Acceptance 140; Forgot to Ask 136; Faustinovick 134
Kelso
4.10 Court Master 159; Schiehallion Munro 149; Knockaura 142; Le Milos 137

TUESDAY MARCH 23
Huntingdon
2.35 Haafapiece 146; Ajero 143; Sofia’s Rock 102

Doesn’t come out top, but Ajero looks to have a penalty kick at Huntingdon on Market Rasen form. May be the type to go on to the Scottish Champion Hurdle.

[robnorth]

Court Master, well favoured at the races won at 100/30 yesterday though the second rated made him work hard for the prize, the pair clear.

Slightly busier for the next two days with fields sizes around the 6 to 8 suggesting crackable races.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 24

Haydock
1.30 Thomas McDonagh 152; Glenduff 145; Informateur 142; Keep Rolling 142 (Severe doubt about the top rated whose rating comes out high as a result of being the only one not to drop his egg in an egg and spoon race at Catterick – only finisher. Otherwise this looks a very tight contest.)
2.02 Thor De Cerisy 140; Song Of The Hunter 133; Star Of Rory 133; Repititio 124
3.12 Seaston Spirit 147; Samuel Jackson 138; Chef D’Oeuvre 136; Boyhood 135

Market Rasen
3.30 Good Man Pat 139; Silent Assassin 136; Gunsight Ridge 133; Rosie And Millie 131
4.05 Linelee King 136; Fawsley Spirit 134; Highway One O One 127; One For You 127

THURSDAY MARCH 25

Ludlow
2.45 Robinshill 134; Takeit Easy 130; Hydroplane 128; Hijran 127; Magic Dancer 127
3.15 El Presente 149; Checkitout 136; Capeland 135

Sedgefield
4.25 Ashington 140; Fair Mountain 138; Minella Trump 136; Good Boy Bobby 134 (cliff horse top here, Ashington often looks well weighted but is a weak finisher)

[Venture to Cognac]

I thought Marown, another one you’ve dug out, looks as if he’ll be worth following up North the next few years.

[robnorth]

Yes, Nicky Richards has looked after Marown. I suspect he’ll have one more run this season then put away for a go at decent handicaps next season.

I was slightly disappointed that Elvis Mail ‘ran into one’ at Carlisle, though stayed on in the style of a horse that will be better stepped up in trip. Seems to have got his jumping together now.

[robnorth]

Four out of five winners in the top three today keeping the winners from top 3 at around 48%.

Busy day Friday with a fair card at Newbury and the Northern Lights Hurdles Finals Day at Musselburgh. The latter are not up to the billed Class 2 standard but are competitive events.

FRIDAY MARCH 26

Newbury
1.00 Masters Legacy 147; Midnights’ Gift 147; Hang In There 142; Sebastapol 137
1.30 Admiral Barratry 151; Minella Encore 151; Mac Tottie 146; Jersey Bean 145; Gleno 145
2.05 Howling Milan 141; Storm Goddess 140; Haul Away 134; Jarveys Plate 133
2.40 Bermeo 130; Saint Du Reve 129; Buster Thomas 129; Dublin Four 127

Musselburgh
3.05 Xpo Universel 139; The Navigator 128; Oakmont 126; Big Jim Dwyer 126
3.40 Buckled 143; Pammi 135; Bullion Boss 132; Arnica 130
4.10 Island Mahee 125; Rubytwo 123; Calliope 122; Gemologist 121

Newcastle
4.40 Madeeh 103; Culture 100; Byron Flyer 99; Arabic Culture 98

[robnorth]

SATURDAY MARCH 27

Kelso
1.35 Didero Vallis 154; Kitty’s Light 145; Dandy Dan 143; Claud And Goldie 143; Red Infantry 143
2.05 Taxmeifyoucan 156; Kaizer 152; Agrapart 147; West to The Bridge 147; Mr Harp 147
2.40 Christopher Wood 159; Tommy’s Oscar 156; Across The Line 149; Hasanabad 147

Kempton
2.15 Almighwar 107; Al Zaraqaan 100; United Front 100; Dark Pine 100; Lawn Ranger 100; Master Of The Stars 100
2.45 Great Ambassador 112; Lord Rapscallion 111; Nigel Nott 110; Gulliver 108

Doncaster
2.35 Poet’s Lady 115; Spiorad 103; Mascat 103; Artistic Rifles 103; Global Esteem 103
3.10 River Nymph 117; Eastern World 113; Ouzo 113; Orbaan 111; Revich 111; Ascension 111

Newbury
2.20 Vice Et Vertu 140; Twojayslad 139; Valadom 134; Lord Scoundrel 133
4.00 Barton Knoll 157; Espoir De Teillee 145; Boldmere 143; Mr Muldoon 138
5.10 Shut The Box 139; Molineaux 134; Flaminger 132; Ruinous 130

Wolverhampton
6.30 Jack The Truth 100; Scale Force 96; Mutabaahy 93; Mokaatil 92

[robnorth]

A tough day for the ratings but the last two winners were top rated Island Mahee (10/1) and Madeeh(2/1). Island Mahee is Irish trained and I’m adding 10lbs to Irish rating for their challengers this side of the Irish Sea since that’s how far Irish ratings are out compared to the UK ratings. They seem to have a tremendous advantage even at this level and it’s a matter the BHA really ought to apply themselves to as a matter of urgency. There’s a lesser but still significant imbalance between the way Northern and Southern horses are treated with Southerners having a significant advantage, particularly in hurdles.

A day of competitive racing on Sunday, with one of my old regular ticks from living down south the ‘end of March/start of April’ Ascot jumps meeting. Known within our household as ‘Hops And Pops Day’!

SUNDAY MARCH 28
Ascot
1.00 Bannixtown Glory 160; Ecco 145; Bells Of Peterboro 145; Stoner’s Choice 142
3.20 Marracudja 144; Awake At Midnight 142; Mystical Clouds 141; Defi Scare 138 (No, it doesn’t include his walk-over!!!)
3.55 Crosspark 159; Activial 153; West Approach 152; Singlefarmpayment 146

Doncaster
3.05 Harmonious 116; Throne Hall 110; Red Force One 110; Music Seeker 106; Spirit Dancer 103
3.40 Bowland Park 99; Tamborrada 98; Annandale 97
4.50 Molls Memory 106; Texting 106; Gunmetal 106; Lexington Dash 105; Muscika 105; True Mason 105

Carlisle
3.30 Mint Gold 137; Sabbathical 137; Relkadam 131; Tonto’s Spirit 129;
4.05 Destin D’Ajonc 141; Scottish Accent 138; Cybalko 137; Craiganboy 135; Darius Des Sources 134
4.40 Seven Eye Bridge 130; Ashfield Paddy 126; Presentedwithwings 121
5.15 Oscar Ceremony 130; The Late Legend 129; Event Of Sivola 129; Another Emotion 128; Well Smitten 126

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