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Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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  • #1489185
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Done plenty of reading during a period without any racing in the UK.

    There’s an old ratings method I’ve dabbled with for periods over the years, had some success but then set aside. It was originally published by a Brighton based source PFA Publications who published a number of ‘Handicapping Manuals’ in the 1970s and early 1980s, some of which were good and some not!

    The method I’m concentrating on was that in a book called ‘The Compleat Handicapper’. The method is based on measuring the form of a race from the winner or second in that contest then transferring the subsequent upgrading of the measure horse through the field. That gives a raw rating for the current race and then a tweak is applied for current form based on lengths beaten in recent races. The method came out in the days of 3 week entries, so collared improving winners where the second franked the form. These days it tends to mitigate against winners, but then i think they tend to be more harshly treated by the Official Handicapper anyway. The method relies on Official Rating Figures as a base, much easier than it used to be as these are freely available and I found the BHA website very useful in this instance.

    To kick off I’ll give the top ratings for the return of racing this week. It’s playing with figures a bit at this point as we won’t know where stables stand on fitness for a week or two. To keep some control over the amount of races covered I’ll rated those of Class 4 and better:

    Monday June 1 2020
    NEWCASTLE

    1.35 1m Class 4 Handicap
    Global Spirit 91
    Saisons D’Or 91
    Geizy Teizy 90
    A very tight contest on the figures with another 4 rated 89 to 87.

    3.20 6f Class 4 Handicap
    Heath Charnock 106
    Yousini 104
    Tenax 99
    The top rated has a big pull in the weights against his previous Tathmeen here and is generally thereabouts and I suspect will prove best at 6 furlongs.

    5.05 1m 4f Class 3 Handicap
    Good Tidings 111
    Star Of The East 109?
    Anythingtoday 109
    Bolder Bob 109?
    The remainder are on 105 or less. A couple of these are marked ? as they were off all last year but have a shout if retaining ability. Top rated ran well until a duffer of a run at Chelmsford late last year, reported by his jockey as ‘stopped quickly’. Off the track since then, I’d expect John Gosden to have his string well prepared.

    72 hour declarations mean I’ve managed to get ahead of the game and will put up Tuesday/Wednesday ratings in due course.

    Rob

    #1489209
    TheKryptonFactor
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1254

    See a lot of forecast/tricast potential here, Rob! Best of luck with the thread, I will definitely be paying it some attention.

    #1489243
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16886

    Good luck Rob

    #1489261
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Tuesday June 2

    Action ramps up with a number of decent contests at Newcastle.

    NEWCASTLE

    12.45 1m Class 4 Handicap

    Lawmaking 110
    Scottish Summit 102
    Jackstar 100
    Lawmaking benefitted from wind surgery and won a similar event at Chelmsford last autumn. Not disgraced up a class next two runs he’s now back in Class 4 and has a strong chance IF Michael Scudamore has him fit enough.

    1.20 1m Class 2 Handicap

    Sir Busker 122
    Fifth Position 113
    Sandret 111
    Sir Busker comes out of a strong line of Class 3 form which includes Lawmaking from the opener. Well held in Class 2 last time though. The second rated Fifth Position has generally been aimed at a higher level and ran a decent race in the Cambridgeshire on his last outing. Lightly raced and could be a progressive sort going forward, certainly one to keep an eye on.

    1.55 7f Class 4 3yo Handicap

    Ratings are based on handicap form and the majority of these are lightly raced types running in their first handicap so no worthwhile ratings. Potentially a nice contest to take notes from though.

    2.30 6f Class 2 Handicap

    Hyperfocus 112
    Mubakker 112
    Cosmic Law 111
    + 4 others rated 110
    Most of the field within a few pounds in what looks a seriously competitive contest. Fitness will prove the key and a race to enjoy the contest while locking the wallet!

    5.25 1m 4.5f Class 4 Handicap

    Multellie 93
    Armandhan 93
    Gabrial The One 91
    Multellie came late to hurdling but performed creditably over the winter in novice company. Largely ‘win in his turn’ on the flat though and has only 2 unplaced artificial surface runs on his record.
    Contest is generally close and the main contenders well exposed.

    6.00 1m 2f Class 3 Handicap

    Cape Cavalli 118
    Where’s Jeff 109
    Lunar Jet 107
    Top rated Cape Cavalli performed creditably last season and comes from a strong form line when finishing in the pack at Newmarket last backend. Interesting, but fitness once again the key. Lunar Jet has been falling short in Class 2 handicaps but handicapper has given him a chance.

    KEMPTON

    A low key card at Kempton in preparation for a stronger line-up on Wedensday

    2.10 5f Class 4 Handicap

    Charming Kid 103
    Jack The Truth 96
    Grandfather Tom 95
    Benny and The Jets 95
    The top rated came last 4 times in a row before running a decent third to Tathmeen at Newcastle in February. On the down side he’s been well beaten each time he’s come back off a break and is drawn on the outside of the 10 here. Tight amongst the leading contenders of the remainder.

    Back to work for 3 days from tomorrow but hope to get figures for Thursday done today and will post Wednesday/Thursday ratings tomorrow.

    #1489343
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Hit the bar and the post with the ratings today, but an encouraging start with near misses at fancy odds.

    1.35 Joint top Saisons D’Or was just held in a duel to the line and finished 2nd at 33-1
    3.20 2nd rated Yousini was done in a head bob at 13-2, while Heath Charnock seems to lack a bit of oomph at the business end.
    5.05 Top rated Good Tidings was 2nd at 5-2, though held by decent and progressive animal in Alginak having handicap debut. In the same race joint second rated Anythingtoday was 3rd at 25-1

    Will see how we go with Tuesday runners posted above and I’ll post Wednesday/Thursday figures some time tomorrow.

    #1489407
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Pleased to say I got a few winners amongst top rated today:

    Newcastle
    12.45 Top three were 4th, 3rd 25-1 and 2nd 5-1, and the 12-1 winner was 4th rated!
    1.20 Sir Busker was well clear on ratings and came with a late rattle to win at 13-2
    2.30 Tight contest won by joint top rated Mubbaker at 7-4
    5.25 Third rated Gabrial The One obliged at 13-2
    6.00 Top rated was 3rd at 3-1 but nothing special here
    Kempton
    2.10 Joint third rated Benny And The Jets won at 6-1.

    I’m certainly homing in on the right areas with plenty of success from top 3. I’ll post tomorrow’s ratings later this evening.

    #1489409
    colosus68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 150

    well done brother

    dont forget you are on a roll hopefully a long roll.

    I reckon there are a few traders watching and waiting for your next post.

    A good start ! You are in a great position now for the 2000 Guineas.
    My plan was to get a stash for Pinatubo…Their money on the next superstar.
    Now before you hand some of that back.
    Get on Pinatubo with some of it.

    A beautiful position to be in.
    Backing Pinatubo with somebody elses money.

    I just cannot see him being beaten.

    Colosus :good:

    #1489417
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Wednesday June 3

    YARMOUTH

    12.45 1m 2f 4 Handicap

    Mainly newcomers to handicaps. Interesting for the future but no ratings.

    4.15 1m 4 Handicap

    Balgair 98
    City Wanderer 95
    Wind In My Sails 91

    A note of caution as 3 of the 10 are handicap newcomers. Balgair was down the field in a competitive event at York last backend but on the plus side he’s gone well off a break a few times, this is his class and he goes on the quick ground. Best price 14/1 at the moment and there will be worse bets this week.

    KEMPTON

    1.35 5f 4 Handicap

    Han Solo Berger 95
    May Remain 93
    You’re Cool 88

    Han Solo Berger won a couple of times last year in similar class. He’s drawn in box 1 which isn’t necessarily an advantage as he’s a hold up horse. May Remain was progressive on the A/W at Dundalk winning 3 times and moving from 56 to 75 in the ratings.

    4.30 1m 4 Handicap

    Daddy’s Daughter 96
    Kingston Kurrajong 92
    Madeleine Bond 91

    Top rates look much of a muchness here and other than on the raw figures can’t see anything that stands out.

    #1489532
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Results

    Yarmouth 4.15 Balgair ran a fair race 3rd at 11-2
    Kempton 1.35 Han Solo Berger was able to take advantage of the good draw and won at 9-2
    Kempton 4.30 Didn’t look promising before hand, one non-runner plus last and second last!

    THURSDAY JUNE 4

    Newmarket

    4.45 6f Class 4 Handicap
    Highly Strung 108
    Delagate This Lord 100
    Double Up 100
    Top three are a few pounds clear here. Course, Distance and going OK for Highly Strung but poor record off a break. Delagate This Lord has credential but another with a poor record off a long break. Double up hasn’t won since 2017.

    5.20 6f Class 4 Handicap
    Texting 99
    Boy In The Bar 95
    Chairmanoftheboard 93
    Commander Han 93
    Texting was progressive last season in this class and has run well off a break.

    5.55 7f Class 3 Handicap
    Via Serendipity 122
    Bear Force One 109
    Rathbone 108
    Via Serendipity is rated on his all weather form but is no slouch on the turf. One I’ve never quite fathomed, losing when I back him, winning when unbacked! Has a clear chance here though.

    6.30 1m 2f Class 4 Handicap
    Medalla De Oro 93
    Pactolus 92
    Inclyne 90
    Medalla De Oro won over hurdles last time, first time after a wind op. Pactolus is decent on the all-weather but exposed and 1 from 20 on turf. Inclyne is interesting as more lightly raced and seems to have some potential to progress.

    #1489618
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Results

    Top-Rated Highly Sprung won the 4.45 at 10/1, and Inclyne (3rd rated) won the 6.30 at 3/1. A profit on the day to a level stake across all selections and continuing a promising start to the thread. Pleasing thing was that Highyl Sprung was 8 pounds clear. Via Serendipity on other hand continued his role as my ‘cliff horse’!(Everybody has one)

    There may well be a case for letting the ratings ride and not over analyse other factors as I’d have rejected the 10/1 winner if I had been betting. It’s a slightly different approach to that used by others which might be the key.

    Selections for Friday June 5

    A busy day with decent handicaps coming thick and fast…

    Newmarket
    1.50 6f Class 2
    Total Commitment 117
    Summerghand 113
    Open Wide 113

    4.10 1m 4f Class 3
    Skymax 111
    Durrell 107
    Jersey Wonder 106

    5.55 6f Class 3
    Silent Echo 111
    Saaheq 106
    Deep Intrigue 104

    6.30 6f Class 3
    Spirit Of May 110
    Boy In The Bar 105
    Beyond Equal 103

    Lingfield

    2.05 7f Class 3
    Many first time in a handicap so i’ll leave this one

    3.50 1m 4f Class 4
    Imperium 92
    Dono Di Dio 92
    Ilhabela Fort 91

    5.00 6f Class 4
    The Lamplighter 93
    Badayel 93
    Erissimus Maximus 92
    Englishman 92

    5.35 6f 3yo Class 4
    A few with no handicap form so slightly wary
    Dark Regard 104
    Caspian Queen 96
    Pop Dancer 95
    Mount Mogan 95
    Angel Grey 95

    If one catches my eye for the day it’s Spirit Of May in the closing event at Newmarket.

    #1489772
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Results

    Newmarket – Silent Echo won at 100-30
    Lingfield – Joint top-rated won in Imperium at 3-1 and Badayel at 4-1, with a new miss with Caspian Queen at 16-1.

    Taking all top-rated including joints that’s 7 winners from 28 which is solid stuff in competitive racing after the enforced break. In general ratings are pointing in the right direction.

    SATURDAY JUNE 6

    Newcastle
    1.30 7f Class 4
    Mogsy 107
    Twin Appeal 99
    Wild Hope 92

    2.05 7f Class 2
    Calder Prince 110
    Kaeso 107
    Vitralite 106

    5.40 1m 2f Class 4
    Regal Mirage 96
    Fiesole 91
    Royal Regent 88

    6.15 1m 2f Class 4
    Sweet Celebration 97
    Pour Me A Drink 96
    Jackamundo 93

    Newmarket

    1.15 5f Class 2
    Royal Birth 122
    Restless Rose 116
    Aplomb 114

    4.10 1m Class 3
    Pinnata 117
    Jalaad 111
    Nonios 110

    4.45 7f Class 2
    Nahaarr 122
    Qaysar 119
    Pogo 113

    5.55 1m 4f Class 2
    Byron Flyer 116
    Calculation 115
    Deja 113

    Lingfield

    5.30 1m Class 4
    Hold Still 104
    Lady Bowthorpe 95
    Corazon Espinado 94

    6.05 1m Class 4
    Directory 100
    6 runners rated 95 or 94

    #1489991
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Results

    Not a great day but semi rescued by the winner of last at Newcastle, Sweet Celebration 5-1. There was one 2nd top rated winner Lady Bowthorpe at 100-30 and 2nds at 22-1 and 13-2. The price range of top rated selections pretty much dictates there will be losing runs and it’s still very early in the season. Top rated success rate looks to be aiming in the 20% area at the moment, but I’ll monitor.

    SUNDAY JUNE 7

    Haydock
    12.55 1m 2f Class 3
    Babbo’s Bay 114
    Spiorad 114
    Country 113

    Newmarket
    2.25 1m 2f 2 Handicap
    Good Birthday 126
    Protected Guest 119
    West End Charmer 116

    4.10 1m 2 Handicap
    Baltic Baron 121
    Ouzo 112
    Ebury 110

    6.30 5f 3 Handicap
    Diamond Dougal 110
    Jabbarockie 107
    Motagally 102

    #1490129
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Finished the week with a 16-1 win from joint top Babbo’s Boy at Haydock. A couple of winner from the close rated West End Charmer(3rd rated) won at 7-2, and Jabbarockie (2nd) at 7-1.

    Backing top-rated including all joint tops through the week saw 43 bets, 9 winners and an SP return of 63.08 pts to a 1 pt level stake. Decent returns given the break and a promising start. Did I back them and make hay? Of course not, way too early in the piece to get involved!!

    MONDAY JUNE 8

    CHELMSFORD
    12.30
    Enthaar 97
    Excellent George 97
    Rock Boy Grey 96

    4.10
    Boom The Groom 97
    Abel Handy 95
    Bellevarde 93

    4.40
    Rhosneigr 105
    Secret Art 101
    Barossa Red 98

    Haydock
    12.45
    Buhturi 105
    Powertrain 103
    Know My Limits 101

    1.15
    Hurstwood 109
    Galadriel 105
    Iva Go 103

    2.15
    Moon King 117
    Themaxwecan 115
    Mancini 115

    3.15
    Tafism 99
    Strawman 96
    Phuket Power 94

    3.50
    Treacherous 103
    Shady McCoy 95
    Kindly 90

    Lingfield
    7.20
    Sashenka 104
    Sneaky Peak 101
    Blowing Dixie 99

    A couple of races omitted as having too few with handicap form.

    When I have more time I’ll put up an explanation of how the ratings are derived. Ratings take 10-15 minutes a race to compile so stretching things on the busy days. About 2 hours a day on average though, which on balance is bearable.

    #1490209
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    A low key day with one top-rated winner Moon King at 2-1. A reverse forecast at Haydock, Treacherous 2nd 11-2, Shady McCoy won at 12-1, but a typical Monday which is never my favourite betting day!

    TUESDAY JUNE 9

    Haydock
    2.45 5f Class 3
    Celsius 104
    Dandy’s Beano 101
    Eeh Bah Gum 100
    Eeh Bah Gum ran decent races in better company last season and should p*ss this if retaining his ability!

    3.15 6f Class 3
    Royal Prospect 107
    Quick Look 100
    Princess Power 100

    3.45
    Markasi 108
    Kaloor 107
    Cap Francais 106

    Chelmsford
    5.45
    Klute 104
    Swift Approval 95
    Knowing Glance 93

    7.15
    Battle Of Marathon 117
    Pianissimo 114
    Mondrin 114

    Wolverhampton
    7.00
    Western Duke 104
    Dance to Paris 97
    My Reward 96

    8.00
    Squelch 92
    Risaalaat 90
    Bin Makfi 89

    #1490305
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    One top-rated winner today, Celsius at 100-30. Quiet otherwise apart from Quiet Look (2nd rated) 3rd at 80-1!

    WEDNESDAY JUNE 10

    2.50 6f Class 4 3yo
    Three Coins 105
    Music Therapist 104
    Hurcle 97

    3.20 2m 1f Class 4
    Ginistrelli 97
    Seinesational 96
    Moon Of Baroda 96

    3.50 1m 4f Class 4
    Doctor Cross 101
    Akamanto 100
    Buriram 100

    4.20 1m 2f Class 4
    Brooklyn Boy 102
    Glasses up 96
    Roman Stone 95

    Wolverhampton
    2.10 5f Class 4
    Auckland Lodge 93
    Batchelor Boy 90
    Coast Of Alfujairah 90

    Yarmouth
    7.15 1m Class 4
    Lucky Lodge 96
    Levanter 90
    Oud Metha Bridge 88

    Kempton
    6.00 7f Class 4
    May Sonic 91
    Swift Approval 89
    Saisons D’Or 88

    8.00 6f Fillies Class 3
    Rosadora 108
    Shimmering Dawn 99
    Pennywhistle 95

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