Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[robnorth]

Done plenty of reading during a period without any racing in the UK.

There’s an old ratings method I’ve dabbled with for periods over the years, had some success but then set aside. It was originally published by a Brighton based source PFA Publications who published a number of ‘Handicapping Manuals’ in the 1970s and early 1980s, some of which were good and some not!

The method I’m concentrating on was that in a book called ‘The Compleat Handicapper’. The method is based on measuring the form of a race from the winner or second in that contest then transferring the subsequent upgrading of the measure horse through the field. That gives a raw rating for the current race and then a tweak is applied for current form based on lengths beaten in recent races. The method came out in the days of 3 week entries, so collared improving winners where the second franked the form. These days it tends to mitigate against winners, but then i think they tend to be more harshly treated by the Official Handicapper anyway. The method relies on Official Rating Figures as a base, much easier than it used to be as these are freely available and I found the BHA website very useful in this instance.

To kick off I’ll give the top ratings for the return of racing this week. It’s playing with figures a bit at this point as we won’t know where stables stand on fitness for a week or two. To keep some control over the amount of races covered I’ll rated those of Class 4 and better:

Monday June 1 2020
NEWCASTLE

1.35 1m Class 4 Handicap
Global Spirit 91
Saisons D’Or 91
Geizy Teizy 90
A very tight contest on the figures with another 4 rated 89 to 87.

3.20 6f Class 4 Handicap
Heath Charnock 106
Yousini 104
Tenax 99
The top rated has a big pull in the weights against his previous Tathmeen here and is generally thereabouts and I suspect will prove best at 6 furlongs.

5.05 1m 4f Class 3 Handicap
Good Tidings 111
Star Of The East 109?
Anythingtoday 109
Bolder Bob 109?
The remainder are on 105 or less. A couple of these are marked ? as they were off all last year but have a shout if retaining ability. Top rated ran well until a duffer of a run at Chelmsford late last year, reported by his jockey as ‘stopped quickly’. Off the track since then, I’d expect John Gosden to have his string well prepared.

72 hour declarations mean I’ve managed to get ahead of the game and will put up Tuesday/Wednesday ratings in due course.

Rob

[TheKryptonFactor]

See a lot of forecast/tricast potential here, Rob! Best of luck with the thread, I will definitely be paying it some attention.

[Venture to Cognac]

Good luck Rob

[robnorth]

Tuesday June 2

Action ramps up with a number of decent contests at Newcastle.

NEWCASTLE

12.45 1m Class 4 Handicap

Lawmaking 110
Scottish Summit 102
Jackstar 100
Lawmaking benefitted from wind surgery and won a similar event at Chelmsford last autumn. Not disgraced up a class next two runs he’s now back in Class 4 and has a strong chance IF Michael Scudamore has him fit enough.

1.20 1m Class 2 Handicap

Sir Busker 122
Fifth Position 113
Sandret 111
Sir Busker comes out of a strong line of Class 3 form which includes Lawmaking from the opener. Well held in Class 2 last time though. The second rated Fifth Position has generally been aimed at a higher level and ran a decent race in the Cambridgeshire on his last outing. Lightly raced and could be a progressive sort going forward, certainly one to keep an eye on.

1.55 7f Class 4 3yo Handicap

Ratings are based on handicap form and the majority of these are lightly raced types running in their first handicap so no worthwhile ratings. Potentially a nice contest to take notes from though.

2.30 6f Class 2 Handicap

Hyperfocus 112
Mubakker 112
Cosmic Law 111
+ 4 others rated 110
Most of the field within a few pounds in what looks a seriously competitive contest. Fitness will prove the key and a race to enjoy the contest while locking the wallet!

5.25 1m 4.5f Class 4 Handicap

Multellie 93
Armandhan 93
Gabrial The One 91
Multellie came late to hurdling but performed creditably over the winter in novice company. Largely ‘win in his turn’ on the flat though and has only 2 unplaced artificial surface runs on his record.
Contest is generally close and the main contenders well exposed.

6.00 1m 2f Class 3 Handicap

Cape Cavalli 118
Where’s Jeff 109
Lunar Jet 107
Top rated Cape Cavalli performed creditably last season and comes from a strong form line when finishing in the pack at Newmarket last backend. Interesting, but fitness once again the key. Lunar Jet has been falling short in Class 2 handicaps but handicapper has given him a chance.

KEMPTON

A low key card at Kempton in preparation for a stronger line-up on Wedensday

2.10 5f Class 4 Handicap

Charming Kid 103
Jack The Truth 96
Grandfather Tom 95
Benny and The Jets 95
The top rated came last 4 times in a row before running a decent third to Tathmeen at Newcastle in February. On the down side he’s been well beaten each time he’s come back off a break and is drawn on the outside of the 10 here. Tight amongst the leading contenders of the remainder.

Back to work for 3 days from tomorrow but hope to get figures for Thursday done today and will post Wednesday/Thursday ratings tomorrow.

[robnorth]

Hit the bar and the post with the ratings today, but an encouraging start with near misses at fancy odds.

1.35 Joint top Saisons D’Or was just held in a duel to the line and finished 2nd at 33-1
3.20 2nd rated Yousini was done in a head bob at 13-2, while Heath Charnock seems to lack a bit of oomph at the business end.
5.05 Top rated Good Tidings was 2nd at 5-2, though held by decent and progressive animal in Alginak having handicap debut. In the same race joint second rated Anythingtoday was 3rd at 25-1

Will see how we go with Tuesday runners posted above and I’ll post Wednesday/Thursday figures some time tomorrow.

[robnorth]

Pleased to say I got a few winners amongst top rated today:

Newcastle
12.45 Top three were 4th, 3rd 25-1 and 2nd 5-1, and the 12-1 winner was 4th rated!
1.20 Sir Busker was well clear on ratings and came with a late rattle to win at 13-2
2.30 Tight contest won by joint top rated Mubbaker at 7-4
5.25 Third rated Gabrial The One obliged at 13-2
6.00 Top rated was 3rd at 3-1 but nothing special here
Kempton
2.10 Joint third rated Benny And The Jets won at 6-1.

I’m certainly homing in on the right areas with plenty of success from top 3. I’ll post tomorrow’s ratings later this evening.

[colosus68]

well done brother

dont forget you are on a roll hopefully a long roll.

I reckon there are a few traders watching and waiting for your next post.

A good start ! You are in a great position now for the 2000 Guineas.
My plan was to get a stash for Pinatubo…Their money on the next superstar.
Now before you hand some of that back.
Get on Pinatubo with some of it.

A beautiful position to be in.
Backing Pinatubo with somebody elses money.

I just cannot see him being beaten.

Colosus

[robnorth]

Wednesday June 3

YARMOUTH

12.45 1m 2f 4 Handicap

Mainly newcomers to handicaps. Interesting for the future but no ratings.

4.15 1m 4 Handicap

Balgair 98
City Wanderer 95
Wind In My Sails 91

A note of caution as 3 of the 10 are handicap newcomers. Balgair was down the field in a competitive event at York last backend but on the plus side he’s gone well off a break a few times, this is his class and he goes on the quick ground. Best price 14/1 at the moment and there will be worse bets this week.

KEMPTON

1.35 5f 4 Handicap

Han Solo Berger 95
May Remain 93
You’re Cool 88

Han Solo Berger won a couple of times last year in similar class. He’s drawn in box 1 which isn’t necessarily an advantage as he’s a hold up horse. May Remain was progressive on the A/W at Dundalk winning 3 times and moving from 56 to 75 in the ratings.

4.30 1m 4 Handicap

Daddy’s Daughter 96
Kingston Kurrajong 92
Madeleine Bond 91

Top rates look much of a muchness here and other than on the raw figures can’t see anything that stands out.

[robnorth]

Results

Yarmouth 4.15 Balgair ran a fair race 3rd at 11-2
Kempton 1.35 Han Solo Berger was able to take advantage of the good draw and won at 9-2
Kempton 4.30 Didn’t look promising before hand, one non-runner plus last and second last!

THURSDAY JUNE 4

Newmarket

4.45 6f Class 4 Handicap
Highly Strung 108
Delagate This Lord 100
Double Up 100
Top three are a few pounds clear here. Course, Distance and going OK for Highly Strung but poor record off a break. Delagate This Lord has credential but another with a poor record off a long break. Double up hasn’t won since 2017.

5.20 6f Class 4 Handicap
Texting 99
Boy In The Bar 95
Chairmanoftheboard 93
Commander Han 93
Texting was progressive last season in this class and has run well off a break.

5.55 7f Class 3 Handicap
Via Serendipity 122
Bear Force One 109
Rathbone 108
Via Serendipity is rated on his all weather form but is no slouch on the turf. One I’ve never quite fathomed, losing when I back him, winning when unbacked! Has a clear chance here though.

6.30 1m 2f Class 4 Handicap
Medalla De Oro 93
Pactolus 92
Inclyne 90
Medalla De Oro won over hurdles last time, first time after a wind op. Pactolus is decent on the all-weather but exposed and 1 from 20 on turf. Inclyne is interesting as more lightly raced and seems to have some potential to progress.

[robnorth]

Results

Top-Rated Highly Sprung won the 4.45 at 10/1, and Inclyne (3rd rated) won the 6.30 at 3/1. A profit on the day to a level stake across all selections and continuing a promising start to the thread. Pleasing thing was that Highyl Sprung was 8 pounds clear. Via Serendipity on other hand continued his role as my ‘cliff horse’!(Everybody has one)

There may well be a case for letting the ratings ride and not over analyse other factors as I’d have rejected the 10/1 winner if I had been betting. It’s a slightly different approach to that used by others which might be the key.

Selections for Friday June 5

A busy day with decent handicaps coming thick and fast…

Newmarket
1.50 6f Class 2
Total Commitment 117
Summerghand 113
Open Wide 113

4.10 1m 4f Class 3
Skymax 111
Durrell 107
Jersey Wonder 106

5.55 6f Class 3
Silent Echo 111
Saaheq 106
Deep Intrigue 104

6.30 6f Class 3
Spirit Of May 110
Boy In The Bar 105
Beyond Equal 103

Lingfield

2.05 7f Class 3
Many first time in a handicap so i’ll leave this one

3.50 1m 4f Class 4
Imperium 92
Dono Di Dio 92
Ilhabela Fort 91

5.00 6f Class 4
The Lamplighter 93
Badayel 93
Erissimus Maximus 92
Englishman 92

5.35 6f 3yo Class 4
A few with no handicap form so slightly wary
Dark Regard 104
Caspian Queen 96
Pop Dancer 95
Mount Mogan 95
Angel Grey 95

If one catches my eye for the day it’s Spirit Of May in the closing event at Newmarket.

[robnorth]

Results

Newmarket – Silent Echo won at 100-30
Lingfield – Joint top-rated won in Imperium at 3-1 and Badayel at 4-1, with a new miss with Caspian Queen at 16-1.

Taking all top-rated including joints that’s 7 winners from 28 which is solid stuff in competitive racing after the enforced break. In general ratings are pointing in the right direction.

SATURDAY JUNE 6

Newcastle
1.30 7f Class 4
Mogsy 107
Twin Appeal 99
Wild Hope 92

2.05 7f Class 2
Calder Prince 110
Kaeso 107
Vitralite 106

5.40 1m 2f Class 4
Regal Mirage 96
Fiesole 91
Royal Regent 88

6.15 1m 2f Class 4
Sweet Celebration 97
Pour Me A Drink 96
Jackamundo 93

Newmarket

1.15 5f Class 2
Royal Birth 122
Restless Rose 116
Aplomb 114

4.10 1m Class 3
Pinnata 117
Jalaad 111
Nonios 110

4.45 7f Class 2
Nahaarr 122
Qaysar 119
Pogo 113

5.55 1m 4f Class 2
Byron Flyer 116
Calculation 115
Deja 113

Lingfield

5.30 1m Class 4
Hold Still 104
Lady Bowthorpe 95
Corazon Espinado 94

6.05 1m Class 4
Directory 100
6 runners rated 95 or 94

[robnorth]

Results

Not a great day but semi rescued by the winner of last at Newcastle, Sweet Celebration 5-1. There was one 2nd top rated winner Lady Bowthorpe at 100-30 and 2nds at 22-1 and 13-2. The price range of top rated selections pretty much dictates there will be losing runs and it’s still very early in the season. Top rated success rate looks to be aiming in the 20% area at the moment, but I’ll monitor.

SUNDAY JUNE 7

Haydock
12.55 1m 2f Class 3
Babbo’s Bay 114
Spiorad 114
Country 113

Newmarket
2.25 1m 2f 2 Handicap
Good Birthday 126
Protected Guest 119
West End Charmer 116

4.10 1m 2 Handicap
Baltic Baron 121
Ouzo 112
Ebury 110

6.30 5f 3 Handicap
Diamond Dougal 110
Jabbarockie 107
Motagally 102

[robnorth]

Finished the week with a 16-1 win from joint top Babbo’s Boy at Haydock. A couple of winner from the close rated West End Charmer(3rd rated) won at 7-2, and Jabbarockie (2nd) at 7-1.

Backing top-rated including all joint tops through the week saw 43 bets, 9 winners and an SP return of 63.08 pts to a 1 pt level stake. Decent returns given the break and a promising start. Did I back them and make hay? Of course not, way too early in the piece to get involved!!

MONDAY JUNE 8

CHELMSFORD
12.30
Enthaar 97
Excellent George 97
Rock Boy Grey 96

4.10
Boom The Groom 97
Abel Handy 95
Bellevarde 93

4.40
Rhosneigr 105
Secret Art 101
Barossa Red 98

Haydock
12.45
Buhturi 105
Powertrain 103
Know My Limits 101

1.15
Hurstwood 109
Galadriel 105
Iva Go 103

2.15
Moon King 117
Themaxwecan 115
Mancini 115

3.15
Tafism 99
Strawman 96
Phuket Power 94

3.50
Treacherous 103
Shady McCoy 95
Kindly 90

Lingfield
7.20
Sashenka 104
Sneaky Peak 101
Blowing Dixie 99

A couple of races omitted as having too few with handicap form.

When I have more time I’ll put up an explanation of how the ratings are derived. Ratings take 10-15 minutes a race to compile so stretching things on the busy days. About 2 hours a day on average though, which on balance is bearable.

[robnorth]

A low key day with one top-rated winner Moon King at 2-1. A reverse forecast at Haydock, Treacherous 2nd 11-2, Shady McCoy won at 12-1, but a typical Monday which is never my favourite betting day!

TUESDAY JUNE 9

Haydock
2.45 5f Class 3
Celsius 104
Dandy’s Beano 101
Eeh Bah Gum 100
Eeh Bah Gum ran decent races in better company last season and should p*ss this if retaining his ability!

3.15 6f Class 3
Royal Prospect 107
Quick Look 100
Princess Power 100

3.45
Markasi 108
Kaloor 107
Cap Francais 106

Chelmsford
5.45
Klute 104
Swift Approval 95
Knowing Glance 93

7.15
Battle Of Marathon 117
Pianissimo 114
Mondrin 114

Wolverhampton
7.00
Western Duke 104
Dance to Paris 97
My Reward 96

8.00
Squelch 92
Risaalaat 90
Bin Makfi 89

[robnorth]

One top-rated winner today, Celsius at 100-30. Quiet otherwise apart from Quiet Look (2nd rated) 3rd at 80-1!

WEDNESDAY JUNE 10

2.50 6f Class 4 3yo
Three Coins 105
Music Therapist 104
Hurcle 97

3.20 2m 1f Class 4
Ginistrelli 97
Seinesational 96
Moon Of Baroda 96

3.50 1m 4f Class 4
Doctor Cross 101
Akamanto 100
Buriram 100

4.20 1m 2f Class 4
Brooklyn Boy 102
Glasses up 96
Roman Stone 95

Wolverhampton
2.10 5f Class 4
Auckland Lodge 93
Batchelor Boy 90
Coast Of Alfujairah 90

Yarmouth
7.15 1m Class 4
Lucky Lodge 96
Levanter 90
Oud Metha Bridge 88

Kempton
6.00 7f Class 4
May Sonic 91
Swift Approval 89
Saisons D’Or 88

8.00 6f Fillies Class 3
Rosadora 108
Shimmering Dawn 99
Pennywhistle 95

[robnorth]

In general not racing that excited me today and results lived down to expectations with few top rates troubling the judge. A near miss with May Sonic 2nd at 28-1 was the brightest spot. Risked a few bob on this one as I thought it had a good chance for the odds, but just missed out.

On the days with a lot of racing its a slog getting through the cards and there’s a lot of Class 4 events. I’ve been recording Class 3 and better handicap results so I may go for those from next week just so as I’m not making a career of these ratings. Interesting exercise though and in places results are encouraging.

A quiet day tomorrow.

THURSDAY JUNE 11

Beverley
1.15 5f Class 4
Afandem 108
Fendale 101
Ustath 98

3.50 1m 1/2f Class 4
Hesslewood 100
Swiss Knight 99
Mickey 97

Newbury
4.45 1m 2f Class 4
Francisco Bay 103
For Pleasure 89
Tell William 87
A huge gap between first and second rated here!

[robnorth]

A couple of near misses with top rated 2nds at 16-1 and 11-2.

Right old struggle to do the figures today. Both Racing Post and BHA site, either of which I can use, were ridiculously slow updating. It was taking me 30 minutes to rate a race instead of 10!

FRIDAY JUNE 12

Kempton
3.15 Class 4
Dreamweaver 109
My Boy Sepoy 101
Escapability 99

3.45 Class 3
Strict Tempo 109
Delilah Park 91
Stay Classy 90

Wolverhampton
12.30 Class 4
Slowmo 104
Steelriver 98
Griggy 88

Newbury
5.25 Class 2
Blue Mist 112
War Glory 109
Charles Molson 108

5.55 Class 2
Nette Rousse 120
Rajinsky 112
Island Brave 109

6.25 Class 3
You’re Hired 110
Moll Davis 104
Just The Man 104

[Author]

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