Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[robnorth]

A nice top rated winner at Kelso in Claud And Goldie at 11/2, an animal arguably progressive at the age of 12 and a mark of Sandy Forster’s old school patient training style.

Updated results from the ratings below for no other reason than I’ve finished a page in my notebook and compile figures page by page. Yes, for all that I get my data from the internet, it’s good old pen and paper for record keeping!

Top Rated: 26/137 (19%) returning 135.19
Shortest Price of Top 3: 38/122 (31%) returning 131.78
Top 3 in all races: 68/122 (55.7%)

All round pleasing results with selective ‘shortest price’ improving on a near ‘break-even’ on top rated. It’s worth remembering that I’m including joint-top rated in Top Rated records, so more than one in some races. Overall 50%+ is more than good enough from the top three at this competitive end of the market and selecting in all qualifying races.

Plenty of decent races this weekend and here are the ratings for the two days. A fair bit of rain in the west so I hope it stays away from racecourses, and I’ll make any adjustments before racing should there be significant non-runners.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 20

Lingfield
12.15 Midnights Legacy 109; Furzig 108; Just The Man 108
2.01 Corazon Espinado 108; Count Otto 104; Lethal Lunch 103

Wincanton
2.13 Aintree My Dream 144; Brelan D’As 139; Flagrant Delitiep 134; Le Cameron 134
3.58 Sir Ivan 151; Our Power 146; Buckhorn George 145
4.33 Late Romantic 149; Sizing At Midnight 145; Shantou Flyer 140

Ascot
2.25 Hill Sixteen 161; Cobolobo 160; Yalltari 157
3.00 Stolen Silver 172; Kateson 164; Dans Le Vent 164
4.10 Republican 145; Saint Dalina 131; Leostar 128; Label Des Obeaux 127

Haydock
2.40 the Two Amigos 159; Sojourn 158; Achille 157
3.50 Everglow 147; Look My Way 144; Champagne Platinum 141; Farrants Way 141

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 21

Uttoxeter
1.57 Global Fame 136; Oneupmanship 136; When You’re Ready 133; Unohu 133

Market Rasen
3.15 Gortroe Joe 148; Blakeney Point 148; Mick Maestro 135; Miss Heritage 135

Newbury
1.50 Everglow 147; Dhowin 145; Silent Assistant 144; Southfield Harvest 141
3.35 Mister Coffey 164; Lightly Squeeze 162; Night Edition 162; Buzz 157

[robnorth]

Thought I had uploaded today’s ratings, but turns out the post didn’t register. For the record 3 races today gave 2 second top rated winners, Multellie at 9/1 and Futuristic at 13/8. The latter continued a pretty decent run in all-weather races and there are some very decent contests at Newcastle tomorrow, the seven furlong event at 6.40 being a particular juicy contest.

Multellie is a interesting one a few of us took an interest in last season as a latecomer to hurdling. Talented trainer Tim Easterby has done a tidy job with this one, a fair novice last season and now competitive in decent handicaps.

TUESDAY FEBRUARY 23

Taunton
3.05 Too many of these don’t gain a rating so I’ll pass but it’s an interesting contest.

Wetherby
3.55 Sexy Lot 141; Schiaparannie 140; Midnightreflection 139

Newcastle
4.40 Cleonte 92; Glan Y Gors 92; Caribeno 90
5.40 Artistic Rifles 102; Habit Rouge 101; Dawaaleeb 100; United Front 100; Daafr 100
6.40 Sanaadh 115; Diocles Of Rome 114; Lord Rapscallion 113; Rathbone 113
7.40 Watchable 102; North Wind 97; Lomu 96; Be Proud 96

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WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 24

Southwell
2.05 King Of Stars 118; Lampang 110; Ornate 106

Ludlow
3.40 Dieu Vivant 128; Ballycross 121; Subcontinent 118
4.45 Robinshill 125; Star Of Rory 123; Eddiemaurice 120

Doncaster
3.30 Rocky’s Treasure 151; Ami Desbois 144; Flying Angel 143; Guitar Pete 143
4.05 Sultans Pride 134; French Paradoxe 132; Shah An Shah 132

[robnorth]

Three decent winners today among the top 3 including top rated Sultan’s Pride at 10/1. I’ve been backing shortest price of the top 3 and, to show how marginal things can be, I backed that one as shortest when I took a ‘snap shot’ of the market around midday. As it happened Shah An Shah ended up as shortest priced, but the winner did top rated figures some good.

Despite a lousy weekend the ‘winners from the top three’ tally remains over 50%, with 77 winners from 149 races.

Quieter day tomorrow, when one of 3 qualifying races at Chepstow (1.55) does not have enough rateable form.

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 25

Chepstow
2.57 Poker Play 143; Perfect Man 142; Diger Daudaie 142
3.27 Funambule Sivola 144; Arian 144; Zambezi Fix 143

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FRIDAY FEBRUARY 26

Exeter
3.10 Tea Time On Mars 145; Ballybough Nora 145; Special Acceptance 141; Financial Outcome 141
3.45 Valse au Taillons 142; Panic Attack 134; Lily The Pink 127

Warwick
3.20 Rose Of Aghaboe 138; Sheneededtherun 112; Lucca Lady 109
3.55 Precious Cargo 158; The Unit 155; Espoir De Guye 150

Lingfield
2.20 Oslo 113; Charlie Arthur 103; Byford 102

[robnorth]

A sprinkling of winners today and I nudged a profit betting wise. Last weekend made a dent in profits but I’ve stayed ahead and showing 23% profit over the month with judicious selection of lowest priced.

Average sort of Saturday with soem tough looking contests at Kempton and the Eider at Newcastle.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 27

Lingfield
12.55 Grove Ferry 116; Crownthorpe 112; Intuitive 103
3.10 Margaret Dumont 112; Torochica 105; Night Bear 102

Kempton
1.15 Hometown Boy 164; Ecco 151; Gunsight Ridge 148
3.35 Mellow Ben 180; Al Dancer 167; Mister Malarky 165; Aso 165
4.10 Captain Blackpearl 149; Guy 148; Ouro Branco 147

Newcastle
3.15 Sam’s Adventure 165; Crossley Tender 160; The Dutchman 157
3.50 Hooligan 149; Fransham 148; Stainsby Girl 142
4.25 Demi Sang 147; Clan Legend 146; Seemorelights 144

[robnorth]

A very successful day for the figures, 4 top rated winners, three straight forecasts with one a winning Tricast.

No qualifying races tomorrow so I’ll give a summary of returns for the year to date:

Top Rated: 35 wins from 183 (19.1%) returning 193.10 (105.5%)
Shortest Priced of top 3: 43 wins from 159 (27%) returning 143.60 (90.3%)
All Races top 3: 82 wins from 159 (51.5%)

Top rated have jumped ahead of shortest priced, though I’ve managed to profit from taking shortest priced from the market at midday but taking Betfair SP. That gave me 17% profit on turnover from 25% strike rate.

Next rateable action is on Tuesday and I’ll put up figures tomorrow.

[robnorth]

I got my days mixed up and missed posting a couple of top rated winners today. Thankfully I managed to back one Ardera Cross at 6/1.

TUESDAY MARCH 2

Newcastle
4.00 Carnwennan 113; Notation 111; Stargazer 108
5.30 Culture 100; Home Before Dark 100; The Trader 98; Songkran 98

WEDNESDAY MARCH 3

Wincanton
2.05 Drumcliff 144; Earlofthecotswolds 141; Molineaux 138

Kempton
4.45 Master The Stars 115; Dashing Roger 114; Sky Defender 113; Assimilation 113; Al Muffrim 113

[robnorth]

Trying to keep one step ahead now so…

THURSDAY MARCH 4

Ludlow
1.30 Wilde Spirit 129; Misty Bloom 126; Coillte Eile 123
2.05 Wandrin Star 148; Rocco 145; Calipso Collonges 140

Southwell
2.15 Gulliver 119; Stone Soldier 118; Tawny Port 113; Gabrial The Devil 113

It may be playing with figures a bit, but up to the end of February selecting one per race (highest in the handicap if equal top) has given 33/159 returning 183.94. An improvement on taking all top rated selections including joint top.

There are one or two handicaps a day at the Cheltenham Festival, and I will set up a thread to show all ratings in the relevant contests.

[robnorth]

The two Ludlow contests were won by horses that I couldn’t rate, one hadn’t run in a handicap and the other had more Peas that Birds Eye. Thankfully Stone Soldier obliged for the ‘shortest priced’ filter and boosted the North betting bank!

A decent batch of handicaps in the next couple of days.

FRIDAY MARCH 5

Lingfield
2.00 Invincible Larne 105; Diligent Lady 103; Requinto Dawn 102

Newbury
3.00 William H Bonney 148; Shut The Box 146; Foxboro 143
3.35 Imperial Knight 152; Regarding Ruth 150; Howling Milan 141

Doncaster
3.25 Pogue 139; Niven 138; Ravenhill Road 133; Master Work 133

[robnorth]

A couple of winners in the mix today, notably 22/1 2nd top rated Regarding Ruth.

Some decent handicaps across 4 meetings tomorrow. Jumps handicaps are decent but there’s a decent Class 2 five furlong event for the 1.25 at Lingfield as well.

SATURDAY MARCH 6

Lingfield
12.15 Tintoretto 98; Rogue Tide 95; Apex King 94
1.25 Tone The Barone 117; Lihou 117; Han Solo Berger 114

Kelso
2.05 Battle Of Wills 150; War Lord 144; Sebastapol 142
3.15 Newtown Boy 159; Blakeney Point 159; The Shunter 157; Voix Du Reve 156; Hunters Call 156

Newbury
12.40 Not A Role Model 129; Neachalls Bridge 127; Eaton Hill 127
1.15 The Kings Writ 154; Sir Ivan 149; West Approach 148; Strong Pursuit 147
1.50 Capeland 165; Windsor Avenue 162; The Big Bite 160; Senior Citizen 158
2.30 Proschema 148; Tegerek 145; Dino Velvet 140

Doncaster
2.55 Zoffee 150; Rikoboy 143; Duke Of Navan 142
3.30 Canelo 160; Just A Sting 152; Red Infantry 152
4.05 Hijack 156; As I See It 146; Small Present 139

[robnorth]

A sprinkling of winners and a good day for ‘Shortest Priced’, best winner being Sir Ivan at 8/1. The big Bite really should have won at Newbury but threw it away on the run-in, though his head carriage up the straight suggests a quirk.

No qualifying races tomorrow on a day of low grade races but action picks up again on Monday.

MONDAY MARCH 8

Southwell
1.00 Black Tulip 138; Northern Beau 136; Nightfly 126

Wetherby
3.50 Oscar Robertson 137; Solar Impulse 132; Hes No Trouble 130
4.20 Applaus 153; Chti Balko 139; Haafapiece 139

Wolverhampton
6.10 Midnights Legacy 109; Sweet Celebration 108; Outbox 106; Lucky’s Dream 106

[robnorth]

There are in fact three qualifying races today. Busy yesterday and really took my eye off the ball!

SUNDAY MARCH 7

Sedgefield
2.20 Rock On Fruity 135; Who’s In The Box 133; Brian Boranha 130
3.25 Mr Muldoon 144; The Paddy Pie 136; Raecius Felix 130;

Huntingdon
4.05 Risk And Roll 142; Rock On Rocco 139; Copper Coin 138

[robnorth]

A quiet midweek and here are ratings for the next two days.

TUESDAY MARCH 9
Newcastle
3.20 Glittering Love 145; Count Meribel 136; She’sasupermack 131
Blaklion is engaged here, and would have picked these up and carried them in his pomp, but it’s sometime since he’s shown form anything like good enough to win this.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 10
Fontwell
1.30 Mount Windsor 122; Zafar 122; Nordic Combined 116
Lingfield
3.55 A Pint Of Bear 108; Charlie Fellowes 102; Rohaan 102

[robnorth]

A slow midweek, though Friday livens up a bit with more handicaps at what would normally be the Grand Military Meeting and Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton on Saturday. A race at Newcastle would be more appropriate for the latter, but it’s always been a decent contest at Wolves.

Just one race worthy of attention on Thursday:

THURSDAY MARCH 11
Wincanton
2.15 Premiumaccess 139; Favori De Sivola 134; Forgot to Ask 129; Onefortheroadtom 127; Alminar 127

[robnorth]

A couple of winners from top 3 yesterday, Mount Windsor firmly slotting home his penalty kick at 6/4 while Rohaan (shortest priced of top 3) just scraped home in a typical Lingfield nail-biter.

Some fair events tomorrow including an intriguing 4 runner race at Lingfield (1.00) where all are in decent form.

FRIDAY MARCH 12

Lingfield
1.00 Byford 89; Crimson King 88; Caribeno 87; Songkran 86
2.05 Going Places 106; Lethal Lunch 104; Mohareb 102

Sandown
3.40 The Flying Sofa 136; Go Long 131; Monsieur D’Arque 130
4.15 Commanche Red 146; Trans Express 144; Stormy Flight 139

Leicester
2.20 Espoir De Romay 150; Solomon Grey 137; The Bay Birch 135

[robnorth]

Ratings for the weekend

SATURDAY MARCH 13

Wolverhampton
2.40 On A Session 116; Zwayyan 114; Scottish Summit 113; Man Of The Night 111
3.15 Zarzyni 127; Juan Les Pins 120; Brian The Snail 116

Sandown
2.25 Mack The Man 162; Malaya 153; Mick Maestro 152; Miss Heritage 151
4.10 Fortescue 152; Mister Murchan 148; Versatility 143; Quick Wave 142
4.45 Fuji Flight 141; Golden Whisky 139; Go Steady 123; Prairie Town 122

Ayr
3.42 Baby Ticker 142; Teescomponents Lad 139; Multellie 137; Dorking Boy 135

Hereford
4.02 Marracudja 156; Hollywoodien 153; Hatcher 148

Chelmsford
7.20 Rock Sound 111; Mokaatil 109; Nigel Nott 103

SUNDAY MARCH 14

Warwick
3.42 Western Climate 136; Volcano 134; Innisfree Lad 131; Mercian Knight 131
4.15 Morning Spirit 140; Poker Play 134; J’Ai Froid 132; Ballymillsy 132

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