Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[robnorth]

WEDNESDAY JUNE 24

Haydock

1.40
Music Society 112
Venturous 103
Daschas 103

3.40
High Flying Bird 109
Rich Belief 106
Lucander 105

5.50
Gold Souk 102
Cedar Cage 100
Pot Of Paint 99

[Venture to Cognac]

Yeah, I was on Rob, happy to get on at 10’s.

I wasn’t 100% confident, thought he might be having a quiet introduction, but couldn’t ignore those odds.

[robnorth]

Well done!

Nicholas T represented a very strong form line coming out of the Cambridgeshire. Lord North is used as the ‘measure’ for that race, now rated 116, and generally the form looks strong. Apart from all else Lord North is doing the family name proud! Royal Hunt Cup winner Dark Vision finished 7th in the Cambridgeshire, but I didn’t have him rated so highly as his rating race was his second to Sir Busker. Might have made a difference if Sir Busker had been able to be re-assessed before the Hunt Cup!

The way the formula works if the winner of the race progresses then beaten horses are judged as having a good chance in future. Winner would be judged against the second so rules do tend to mitigate against last time out winners, unless the second subsequently boosts the form as second would be the ‘measure’ for the form of the winner. There is an allowance for recent form though, so horses beaten a long way in their recent races won’t score high even if the winner is progressive.

The rating formula originated in the days when weights were set 3 weeks in advance, so progressive horses could stay in front of the handicapper. In those days the Official Ratings weren’t available so had to be divined from the Handicap Book entries or the Racing Calendar. The method is easier to use now as all ratings are published and it seems effective under current conditions.

One race Thursday and one Friday before a whole host of decent handicaps on Saturday.

[robnorth]

Double figure placed runners in each race but no winners listed though Mountain Peak (won 5-1) inherited 3rd rating in the 1.40.

THURSDAY JUNE 25

Just the one qualifying race and a very competitive contest with the pack lining up behind the top-rated.

1.15
Fighting Irish 111
Buridan 108
Sir Maximilian 108
Top Breeze 108
Motagally 108

[robnorth]

Today’s event was never one to get involved in. The top rated was non-runner along with 5 others and the 4 joint rated occupied 4th to 7th places! The winner Barbill was stone last on recent from though the base rating on overall form had it top rated. A right old trap of a race!

One race tomorrow.

Doncaster
3.55
Away He Goes 111
Tricorn 110
Elector 106

[robnorth]

SATURDAY JUNE 27

Redcar
2.50
Gallipoli 108
Triple Distilled 107
Star Shield 97

Newcastle
1.15
Gabrial The Saint 117
Concierge 114
Gunmetal 110

2.25
El Hombre 114
Copper Knight 111
Caspian Prince 111

3.35
Collide 123
Rajinsky 121
Carnwennan 116

Progressive type Rajinsky is my selection for this race. Analysis post in the Northumberland Plate thread under Big Races Forum.

4.10
Contrebasse 91
Al Kout 90
Firlinfeu 87

Newmarket
1.30
Blown By Wind 118
Mohareb 111
Arbalet 111

3.50
Al Maysan 93
Glenties 93
Nugget 91
Fruition 91

A couple of races at Newmarket don’t have enough handicap form and course is at the mercy of possible thunder storms so I will tread warily at that track.

[robnorth]

Gallipoli did the ratings proud today, obliging at 28/1. Shows the potential of a method which flings up well treated outsiders though at those prices a bit of patience is required. Joint-rated Al Maysan won at 10/3 to add a bit more to the profit on the top rates. 2nd top-rated Caspian Prince obliged at 28/1, a nice one for those who like to play ‘three against the field’.

Selections 79 Wins 13 (16.5%) Returns 113.57pts (143.7%)

These returns will zoom up and down I suspect given the area of operation but that’s very pleasing from almost a month’s worth of selections.

A fair bit of decent handicap action on SUNDAY JUNE 28:

Windsor
1.55
Charles Molson 100
Arcanada 100
A Sure Welcome 96

3.35
Sun Power 116
Overwrite 115
Sword Beach 111

Newmarket
1.35
Alfred Boucher 109
Ambassadorial 107
Gin Palace 104

3.20
Ascension 102
Buhturi 101
Monoski 93

3.55
Desert Icon 118
Elwazir 112
Wait Forever 108

5.00
Island Brave 111
Charlie D 111
Platitude 110

[robnorth]

The results were very pleasing today, perhaps a reflection of form beginning to settle. top rated Desert Icon won convincingly at 11/8 while joint top Arcanada (18/1) and Charlie D (18/5) were also winners. Add to that winners from the top 3 in Gin Palace at 8/1 and Overwrite at 11/5 and it was a good day.

Action at Class 3 level or better eases off after a busy weekend but three races to keep us interested tomorrow:

MONDAY JUNE 29

Yarmouth
2.30
Burford Brown 105
Blonde Warrior 104
Pennywhistle 101

Windsor
3.20
Electric Ladyland 118
Will To Win 109
Bettys Hope 105
Much easier than Ascot assignment for the top rated, and this sharper track should suit.

5.20
Wargrave 116
Severance 113
Bella Vita 112
After 10 furlongs on the snow and then a mile in the the Hunt Cup it’s up to 11.5 furlongs in this event.

[robnorth]

A nice winner in Electric Ladyland. Clear top rated off competing in a tough race at Ascot and showed the determination evident from the win at Goodwood. Right sort of performer to have on your side and won this at rewarding price of 17/2.

The closing event at Windsor turned into a bit of a farce, with only three runners left due to quickening ground, and Severance the odds-on favourite beaten into second.

The two seasonal newcomers at Yarmouth, Burford Brown and Blonde Warrior ran well enough to put an edge on them and are worth keeping an eye on.

Top Rated Results to date:

Selections 90 Wins 17 Returns 148.04pts

One race tomorrow Tuesday June 30:

Doncaster
2.00
Athollblair Boy 103
Muscika 101
Admirality 100

Of these three, I rather fancy Admirality who ran a succession of decent races last year at Class 2 level and is dropped a grade here. Opening run since return should have brought him on.

[Venture to Cognac]

This is running very smoothly Rob, well done.

[robnorth]

Thanks VtC, results have been very encouraging. Did myself a big favour sticking to Class 3 or better. Form is more reliable and it gives me a manageable number of races with the odd day off.

All the top three today ran quite well but we just missed out with Muscika 2nd at 11/1. Athollblair Boy ran well and threatened to reward my small interest at 70 on Betfair but was run out of it in the final furlong. Certainly one that might pop in at a price some time soon.

National Hunt starts tomorrow but I’ll leave betting no the jumps for a few weeks.

Southwell
12.35
Cracking Destiny 144
Fort De L’Ocean 144
Isaac Wonder 143

3.10
Oscar Rose 159
Rhythm Is A Dancer 157
Theatrebar 155

3.40
Gateway To Europe 149
Beeno 148
Empreinte Reconce 148

Musselburgh
2.20
Asdaa 108
Rux Ruxx 104
Muntadab 100

Kempton
7.15
Space Walk 109
Point in Time 109
Dont Give Up 104

[robnorth]

One winner from top three in each race, Isaac Wonder at 12/1. This sort of winner suits my 3 against the field on Betfair, but no bet today on the first day over the jumps. Hunters Call would have been about 20lbs clear on his ‘latest form’ but that was 900 odd days ago so no way could I have included that! Stable was on fire though, and 13/2 price suggested there was no confidence of a good showing.

No qualifying races tomorrow bar a 0-90 at Bellewstown and there’s no enough Irish form at that level to get involved yet. Having been to Bellewstown I’m curious to know how they will run it behind closed doors as it’s basically the village green! Lovely course though and worth a visit once we say cheerio to this damned virus.

Results to date

Selections 98 Wins 17 Returns 148.04 pts

Not far short of target 20% winners and any profit at industry SP is welcome. I bet almost solely on Betfair so looking to make a killing on the fancy priced ones.

[robnorth]

Thought I’d drawn a blank on my flat bets today, but turned out I accidentally bet on the Place market at Kempton! Didn’t make a profit, but Space Walk placed and cut my losses!

[robnorth]

FRIDAY JULY 3

A couple of races at Hamilton but there’s heavy rain forecast which may mean a non-runner or two.

4.50
King Of Tonga 100
Al Qahwa 95
Knighted 94

5.20
Redama 101
Storm Ahead 96
Star Shield 95

[robnorth]

A near miss with Redarna (read the ‘rn’ as an ‘m’ yesterday!) 2nd at 28/1. HOLD ON…, winner weighed in light so Redarna is promoted to winner at 28/1!

A succession of fiendish looking contests over the weekend, and Epsom is not my favourite course, but here are the first set of ratings.

SATURDAY JULY 4

Epsom
3.00
Wargrave 117
Plantadream 117
Mr Scaramanga 117
Sherpa Trail 117
Wargrave shows up prominently once again and it will be interesting to see if the quirky 10 furlongs is what he needs! These four are 6lbs clear of the remainder.

5.35
Hateya 108
Magical Wish 108
Count Otto 108

Haydock
2.40
Raydiance 111
Kryptos 107
You’re Fired 107

4.25
Golden Sandbanks 106
Zegalo 103
Luigi Vampa 100
Wary here as a few haven’t run in a handicap.

Chelmsford
4.35
Owney Madden 110
One Night Stand 110
Never Dark 109

6.10
Afraid Of Nothing 99
Odyssey Girl 99
Lethal Talent 98

Yarmouth
7.25
World Title 112
Rovaniemi 102
Oslo 100
Once again I’m a little wary as 2 of the 6 haven’t run in a handicap.

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