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Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 58 total)
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  • #1491656
    robnorthrobnorth
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    • Total Posts 4396

    WEDNESDAY JUNE 24

    Haydock

    1.40
    Music Society 112
    Venturous 103
    Daschas 103

    3.40
    High Flying Bird 109
    Rich Belief 106
    Lucander 105

    5.50
    Gold Souk 102
    Cedar Cage 100
    Pot Of Paint 99

    #1491671
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17330

    Yeah, I was on Rob, happy to get on at 10’s.

    I wasn’t 100% confident, thought he might be having a quiet introduction, but couldn’t ignore those odds.

    #1491730
    robnorthrobnorth
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    • Total Posts 4396

    Well done!

    Nicholas T represented a very strong form line coming out of the Cambridgeshire. Lord North is used as the ‘measure’ for that race, now rated 116, and generally the form looks strong. Apart from all else Lord North is doing the family name proud! Royal Hunt Cup winner Dark Vision finished 7th in the Cambridgeshire, but I didn’t have him rated so highly as his rating race was his second to Sir Busker. Might have made a difference if Sir Busker had been able to be re-assessed before the Hunt Cup!

    The way the formula works if the winner of the race progresses then beaten horses are judged as having a good chance in future. Winner would be judged against the second so rules do tend to mitigate against last time out winners, unless the second subsequently boosts the form as second would be the ‘measure’ for the form of the winner. There is an allowance for recent form though, so horses beaten a long way in their recent races won’t score high even if the winner is progressive.

    The rating formula originated in the days when weights were set 3 weeks in advance, so progressive horses could stay in front of the handicapper. In those days the Official Ratings weren’t available so had to be divined from the Handicap Book entries or the Racing Calendar. The method is easier to use now as all ratings are published and it seems effective under current conditions.

    One race Thursday and one Friday before a whole host of decent handicaps on Saturday.

    #1491777
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4396

    Double figure placed runners in each race but no winners listed though Mountain Peak (won 5-1) inherited 3rd rating in the 1.40.

    THURSDAY JUNE 25

    Just the one qualifying race and a very competitive contest with the pack lining up behind the top-rated.

    1.15
    Fighting Irish 111
    Buridan 108
    Sir Maximilian 108
    Top Breeze 108
    Motagally 108

    #1491856
    robnorthrobnorth
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    • Total Posts 4396

    Today’s event was never one to get involved in. The top rated was non-runner along with 5 others and the 4 joint rated occupied 4th to 7th places! The winner Barbill was stone last on recent from though the base rating on overall form had it top rated. A right old trap of a race!

    One race tomorrow.

    Doncaster
    3.55
    Away He Goes 111
    Tricorn 110
    Elector 106

    #1491909
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4396

    SATURDAY JUNE 27

    Redcar
    2.50
    Gallipoli 108
    Triple Distilled 107
    Star Shield 97

    Newcastle
    1.15
    Gabrial The Saint 117
    Concierge 114
    Gunmetal 110

    2.25
    El Hombre 114
    Copper Knight 111
    Caspian Prince 111

    3.35
    Collide 123
    Rajinsky 121
    Carnwennan 116

    Progressive type Rajinsky is my selection for this race. Analysis post in the Northumberland Plate thread under Big Races Forum.

    4.10
    Contrebasse 91
    Al Kout 90
    Firlinfeu 87

    Newmarket
    1.30
    Blown By Wind 118
    Mohareb 111
    Arbalet 111

    3.50
    Al Maysan 93
    Glenties 93
    Nugget 91
    Fruition 91

    A couple of races at Newmarket don’t have enough handicap form and course is at the mercy of possible thunder storms so I will tread warily at that track.

    #1491998
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4396

    Gallipoli did the ratings proud today, obliging at 28/1. Shows the potential of a method which flings up well treated outsiders though at those prices a bit of patience is required. Joint-rated Al Maysan won at 10/3 to add a bit more to the profit on the top rates. 2nd top-rated Caspian Prince obliged at 28/1, a nice one for those who like to play ‘three against the field’.

    Selections 79 Wins 13 (16.5%) Returns 113.57pts (143.7%)

    These returns will zoom up and down I suspect given the area of operation but that’s very pleasing from almost a month’s worth of selections.

    A fair bit of decent handicap action on SUNDAY JUNE 28:

    Windsor
    1.55
    Charles Molson 100
    Arcanada 100
    A Sure Welcome 96

    3.35
    Sun Power 116
    Overwrite 115
    Sword Beach 111

    Newmarket
    1.35
    Alfred Boucher 109
    Ambassadorial 107
    Gin Palace 104

    3.20
    Ascension 102
    Buhturi 101
    Monoski 93

    3.55
    Desert Icon 118
    Elwazir 112
    Wait Forever 108

    5.00
    Island Brave 111
    Charlie D 111
    Platitude 110

    #1492092
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4396

    The results were very pleasing today, perhaps a reflection of form beginning to settle. top rated Desert Icon won convincingly at 11/8 while joint top Arcanada (18/1) and Charlie D (18/5) were also winners. Add to that winners from the top 3 in Gin Palace at 8/1 and Overwrite at 11/5 and it was a good day.

    Action at Class 3 level or better eases off after a busy weekend but three races to keep us interested tomorrow:

    MONDAY JUNE 29

    Yarmouth
    2.30
    Burford Brown 105
    Blonde Warrior 104
    Pennywhistle 101

    Windsor
    3.20
    Electric Ladyland 118
    Will To Win 109
    Bettys Hope 105
    Much easier than Ascot assignment for the top rated, and this sharper track should suit.

    5.20
    Wargrave 116
    Severance 113
    Bella Vita 112
    After 10 furlongs on the snow and then a mile in the the Hunt Cup it’s up to 11.5 furlongs in this event.

    #1492168
    robnorthrobnorth
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    • Total Posts 4396

    A nice winner in Electric Ladyland. Clear top rated off competing in a tough race at Ascot and showed the determination evident from the win at Goodwood. Right sort of performer to have on your side and won this at rewarding price of 17/2.

    The closing event at Windsor turned into a bit of a farce, with only three runners left due to quickening ground, and Severance the odds-on favourite beaten into second.

    The two seasonal newcomers at Yarmouth, Burford Brown and Blonde Warrior ran well enough to put an edge on them and are worth keeping an eye on.

    Top Rated Results to date:

    Selections 90 Wins 17 Returns 148.04pts

    One race tomorrow Tuesday June 30:

    Doncaster
    2.00
    Athollblair Boy 103
    Muscika 101
    Admirality 100

    Of these three, I rather fancy Admirality who ran a succession of decent races last year at Class 2 level and is dropped a grade here. Opening run since return should have brought him on.

    #1492186
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17330

    This is running very smoothly Rob, well done.

    #1492267
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4396

    Thanks VtC, results have been very encouraging. Did myself a big favour sticking to Class 3 or better. Form is more reliable and it gives me a manageable number of races with the odd day off.

    All the top three today ran quite well but we just missed out with Muscika 2nd at 11/1. Athollblair Boy ran well and threatened to reward my small interest at 70 on Betfair but was run out of it in the final furlong. Certainly one that might pop in at a price some time soon.

    National Hunt starts tomorrow but I’ll leave betting no the jumps for a few weeks.

    Southwell
    12.35
    Cracking Destiny 144
    Fort De L’Ocean 144
    Isaac Wonder 143

    3.10
    Oscar Rose 159
    Rhythm Is A Dancer 157
    Theatrebar 155

    3.40
    Gateway To Europe 149
    Beeno 148
    Empreinte Reconce 148

    Musselburgh
    2.20
    Asdaa 108
    Rux Ruxx 104
    Muntadab 100

    Kempton
    7.15
    Space Walk 109
    Point in Time 109
    Dont Give Up 104

    #1492360
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4396

    One winner from top three in each race, Isaac Wonder at 12/1. This sort of winner suits my 3 against the field on Betfair, but no bet today on the first day over the jumps. Hunters Call would have been about 20lbs clear on his ‘latest form’ but that was 900 odd days ago so no way could I have included that! Stable was on fire though, and 13/2 price suggested there was no confidence of a good showing.

    No qualifying races tomorrow bar a 0-90 at Bellewstown and there’s no enough Irish form at that level to get involved yet. Having been to Bellewstown I’m curious to know how they will run it behind closed doors as it’s basically the village green! Lovely course though and worth a visit once we say cheerio to this damned virus.

    Results to date

    Selections 98 Wins 17 Returns 148.04 pts

    Not far short of target 20% winners and any profit at industry SP is welcome. I bet almost solely on Betfair so looking to make a killing on the fancy priced ones.

    #1492361
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4396

    Thought I’d drawn a blank on my flat bets today, but turned out I accidentally bet on the Place market at Kempton! Didn’t make a profit, but Space Walk placed and cut my losses!

    #1492492
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4396

    FRIDAY JULY 3

    A couple of races at Hamilton but there’s heavy rain forecast which may mean a non-runner or two.

    4.50
    King Of Tonga 100
    Al Qahwa 95
    Knighted 94

    5.20
    Redama 101
    Storm Ahead 96
    Star Shield 95

    #1492560
    robnorthrobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4396

    A near miss with Redarna (read the ‘rn’ as an ‘m’ yesterday!) 2nd at 28/1. HOLD ON…, winner weighed in light so Redarna is promoted to winner at 28/1!

    A succession of fiendish looking contests over the weekend, and Epsom is not my favourite course, but here are the first set of ratings.

    SATURDAY JULY 4

    Epsom
    3.00
    Wargrave 117
    Plantadream 117
    Mr Scaramanga 117
    Sherpa Trail 117
    Wargrave shows up prominently once again and it will be interesting to see if the quirky 10 furlongs is what he needs! These four are 6lbs clear of the remainder.

    5.35
    Hateya 108
    Magical Wish 108
    Count Otto 108

    Haydock
    2.40
    Raydiance 111
    Kryptos 107
    You’re Fired 107

    4.25
    Golden Sandbanks 106
    Zegalo 103
    Luigi Vampa 100
    Wary here as a few haven’t run in a handicap.

    Chelmsford
    4.35
    Owney Madden 110
    One Night Stand 110
    Never Dark 109

    6.10
    Afraid Of Nothing 99
    Odyssey Girl 99
    Lethal Talent 98

    Yarmouth
    7.25
    World Title 112
    Rovaniemi 102
    Oslo 100
    Once again I’m a little wary as 2 of the 6 haven’t run in a handicap.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 58 total)
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