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Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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  • #1490341
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4842

    In general not racing that excited me today and results lived down to expectations with few top rates troubling the judge. A near miss with May Sonic 2nd at 28-1 was the brightest spot. Risked a few bob on this one as I thought it had a good chance for the odds, but just missed out.

    On the days with a lot of racing its a slog getting through the cards and there’s a lot of Class 4 events. I’ve been recording Class 3 and better handicap results so I may go for those from next week just so as I’m not making a career of these ratings. Interesting exercise though and in places results are encouraging.

    A quiet day tomorrow.

    THURSDAY JUNE 11

    Beverley
    1.15 5f Class 4
    Afandem 108
    Fendale 101
    Ustath 98

    3.50 1m 1/2f Class 4
    Hesslewood 100
    Swiss Knight 99
    Mickey 97

    Newbury
    4.45 1m 2f Class 4
    Francisco Bay 103
    For Pleasure 89
    Tell William 87
    A huge gap between first and second rated here!

    #1490389
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    A couple of near misses with top rated 2nds at 16-1 and 11-2.

    Right old struggle to do the figures today. Both Racing Post and BHA site, either of which I can use, were ridiculously slow updating. It was taking me 30 minutes to rate a race instead of 10!

    FRIDAY JUNE 12

    Kempton
    3.15 Class 4
    Dreamweaver 109
    My Boy Sepoy 101
    Escapability 99

    3.45 Class 3
    Strict Tempo 109
    Delilah Park 91
    Stay Classy 90

    Wolverhampton
    12.30 Class 4
    Slowmo 104
    Steelriver 98
    Griggy 88

    Newbury
    5.25 Class 2
    Blue Mist 112
    War Glory 109
    Charles Molson 108

    5.55 Class 2
    Nette Rousse 120
    Rajinsky 112
    Island Brave 109

    6.25 Class 3
    You’re Hired 110
    Moll Davis 104
    Just The Man 104

    #1490459
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    A couple of 2nd top rated winners today in Steelriver at 11-1 and Delilah Park at 9-2. Top rated were 2nd, 3rd and 2nd at Newbury in a meeting decimated by non-runners. The going hadn’t changed dramatically and trainers are taking the mickey given how difficult it is for some to get a run.

    MOLL DAVIS was second at Newbury but looks one to be wary of as a late finisher. Might have a chance in big fields with lots of trailblazers but needs a race to fall right.

    Struggling to find time to do all races down to Class 4 even on a non-working day, so sticking to Class 3 or better from now on to give me a manageable amount of races and the better horses. I hadn’t realised how much Class 4 stuff there was until this week. That said Saturday is very quiet decent handicap wise although only 4 meetings at the moment reduces the load!

    I’ll give a few more than top 3 given the amount that came out at Newbury today.

    SATURDAY JUNE 13

    Doncaster
    3.25 1m Class 3
    Joyful Mission 105
    Danielsflyer 104
    Asdaa 100
    Caustic Love 100
    King’s Pavilion 99

    Newbury
    1.50 1m 2f Class 3 3yo
    Gold Souk 102
    Tell Me All 99
    Its Good to Laugh 97

    Sandown
    2.15
    Only 3 out of 8 run in handicap

    3.15 1m Class 2
    Muraad 108
    The Gill Brothers 107
    Mustarrid 106
    Solid Stone 103

    #1490630
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Bit of a struggle at the moment, but I won’t be betting until start of July to let the form settle down. Royal Ascot could be anything this week, with a 24 runner pinstickers handicap to start with!

    Today’s ratings

    Goodwood
    1.45
    Electric Ladyland 95
    Glamorous Anna 94
    Pop Dancer 93

    3.25
    Gibraltar 95
    Bodyline 92
    Glenties 86

    Doncaster
    2.00
    Camacho Chief 116
    Tanasoq 116
    Encore D’Or 113

    3.10
    Derevo 122
    Archie Perkins 116
    Sandret 111
    Far and away the best handicap of the day and a very interesting contest. Derevo represents a very strong form line from end of last season. The others are decent though and just out of the picture Roger Fell’s Anythingtoday (rated 110) will have come on for a respectable first effort.

    I’ll summarise results from Class 3 and better races after today’s racing. Despite a low key week I think results overall aren’t bad.

    #1490684
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Electric Ladyland obliged at 6/1 at Goodwood, just hanging in a close finish. Such are the margins ‘tween success and failure and I’ve had a few the other way.

    Results for Class 3 and better handicap to date (top or joint top)

    Selections 37 Wins 6 Returns 43.16

    Sound enough for the start of the season, not far short of target 20% winners, and exchange bettors would have done a fair bit better.

    MONDAY JUNE 15

    Only one race qualifies at Pontefract and 3 out of 8 have no handicap form so I’ll give it a miss. Now on to trying to sort out some competitive stuff at Ascot. Ditching the Class 4 events takes the pressure off and allows me to concentrate properly on a decent set of races.

    #1490773
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    TUESDAY JUNE 16

    Royal Ascot

    Handicaps at this meeting are a struggle at the best of times, even more so this season with little recent form to latch on to. However, one decent priced winner over the 5 days would see us on the way to a profit.

    1.15 7f Buckingham Palace Handicap
    Motakhayyel 125
    Documenting 121
    Keyser Soze 118
    Kaeso 116

    MOTAKHAYYEL looks very interesting here even in a big field. Progressive last season, he wasn’t seen after disappointing on rain softened ground in late July. Ground could be the key as he quick ground and wouldn’t want any more rain, but he’s lightly raced and there may be more to come.
    Documenting’s rating reflects his all weather form and he’s not got near that on turf so far.
    Keyser Soze has been near his best on the all-weather but has not made too much of a mark in these big field handicaps.
    A repetition Kaeso‘s second here last July would give him every chance.

    4.40 2m 4f Ascot Stakes

    Cliffs Of Dooneen 109
    Quloob 108
    Dubawi Fifty 108
    Summer Moon 106

    A scabby handicap at the best of times and not my idea of fun! A mixture of flat plodders and jumpers looking for an opportunity during the break. SUMMER MOON ran a cracker to finish third in the Cesarewitch and might reasonably be expected to have matured a little more over the winter. Beaten by two very decent animals over a shorter trip subsequently.

    Windsor

    7.00 6f Class 3

    Chairmanoftheboard 101
    Yimou 100
    Luxor 99

    Chairmanoftheboard was a decent third at Newmarket to Bungee Jump who franked that form in Listed company at Goodwood. Must have every chance here with a race under his belt.

    #1490984
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    A great start to Royal Ascot for the ratings with Motakhayyel winning at 14/1 on ground that was quicker than initial report suggested. a good demonstration that the rating system basis of using marker horses (in this case Flashcard) as a measure of form has a lot of merit, particularly in the better handicaps.
    Chairmanoftheboard followed up at Windsor this evening at 100/30.

    Top rated – Selections 40 Wins 8 Returns 62.49 pts (1 pt stake)

    WEDNESDAY JUNE 17

    1.15 1m ‘Silver’ Hunt Cup
    Goring 117
    Nicklaus 108
    Salayel 108

    Goring’s rating is based on all-weather form and he hasn’t won on turf for sometime. He has been running well over the winter though and can be backed at 33/1.

    2.25 1m 4f King George V Handicap (3yo)
    Group One Power 113
    Locked N Loaded 111
    Berkshire Savvy 109

    Group One Power held at Yarmouth but gives the impression the step up in trip will help.

    3.25 1m Royal Hunt Cup
    Wargrave 128
    Afaak 126
    Fox Premier 122

    Wargrave comes out top due to ‘back form’ from his last handicap but partly due to a win at 10 furlongs on the snow at St Moritz in February. Interesting prep race and selection from left field showing at 50/1!
    Afaak needs a bit of rain to come into the equation.
    Fox Premier definitely in the mix form bottom of the weights as there’s not a huge spread of weights in a wide open race.

    4.40 1m 6f Handicap
    Almania 120
    Floating Artist 117
    Ranch Hand 114

    Almania was consistent but a length or two short of the mark on a number of occasions last term. Three fair efforts at the the course.

    Chelmsford -Only qualifying handicap has 3 out of 5.

    Tilting at windmills with top rates, but you only need to hit one at these prices.

    #1491121
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Never likely to be an easy day but a sprinkling of places with top rated Group One Power 4th at 28/1 and Almania 3rd at 12/1 both running creditable races.

    Results: Selections 44 Wins 8 Returns 62.49pts

    THURSDAY JUNE 18

    Not a day I would get involved in seriously. Handicaps are 3yo events and many are making handicap debut. Ratings are given for information though and will be included in results. Always the chance I suppose that hardened handicappers might turn over their lighter raced opponents.

    Royal Ascot
    1.15
    Gallaside 119
    Yoshimi 117
    HMS President 114

    4.10
    Grove Ferry 110
    Amaysmont 109
    Verboten 108
    Kondratiev Wave 108

    4.40
    Separate 120
    Huboor 112
    Mrs Upjohn 110

    Redcar

    7.30
    Sootability 94
    Nkosikazi 92
    Geetanjali 85

    #1491209
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    The 3yo handicaps proved predictably unfathomable. Probably worth leaving them from a betting point of view until later in the season, even more so this season as horses with 2 runs get in.

    A reverse forecast in the Recar event, Sootablity 2nd at 5/1, Nkosikazi won at 8/11.

    FRIDAY JUNE 19

    1.15 5f Class 2 3yo Handicap

    The majority haven’t run in a handicap so no useful ratings.
    As an aside to the ratings Art Power is probably very decent and is a confident selection. Impressive at York in soft last October and on seasonable debut at Newcastle.

    4.40 1m 4f Class 2 Handicap

    Le Don De Vie 123
    Durston 121
    Universal Order 119

    Newmarket

    4.20
    Point In Time 100
    Marbella 94
    Tulip Fields 84

    #1491373
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Le Don De Vie ran a fair race for for fourth at Ascot. The Newmarket race was reduced to three runners with the top rated being withdrawn not entering the stalls.

    I did at least manage a bonus winner as Art Power duly cruised clear in the opener at Ascot at 6/4, though 2/1 was available in the morning. Last time that one will compete in a handicap for a while with Group races presumably now on the agenda.

    Selections 49 Wins 8 Return 62.49

    SATURDAY JUNE 20

    Fairly confident top rates in the two heats at Ascot can make their mark.

    12.40 6f Class 2 Silver Wokingham Handicap
    Gabrial The Wire 114
    ChiefOfChiefs 113
    Swindler 110
    Count D’Orsay 110

    4.10 6f Class 2 Wokingham Handicap
    Lethal Lunch 114
    Konchek 113
    Summerghand 11

    Newmarket

    1.05 6f Class 3 3yo
    Clareyblue 103
    Magical Mix 102
    Melody King 99

    2.45 7f 3 Handicap
    King Of Tonga 108
    Ventura Ocean 103
    Riviera Nights 102

    4.25 1m 6f 3 Handicap
    Good Tidings 101
    Scaramanga 101
    Noble Behest 98

    Ripon

    8.10 1m 2f Class 3 Handicap
    Amjaady 96
    Awake My Soul 95
    Mutamaded 93

    #1491441
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Non-runners have carved up one of the races at Newmarket and we have lost top rated in another. Revised figures for two races:

    Newmarket
    1.05
    Magical Mix 102
    Punchbowl Flyer 97
    Kidda 96

    2.45
    Ventura Ocean 103
    Riviera Nights 102
    Deep Intrigue 100

    Probably not a thread to have a gripe about non-runners, but three are for ‘Going’ and it’s reported as good at Newmarket. Horses should not be pulled out on Good going.

    Don’t even start me on ‘Self Certification’ which is a racket.

    Anyway we can land a winner or two today and, with Scottish racing restarting, there is a decent card to look forward to at Ayr on Monday. I had hoped to be retired and watching racing as much as possible at this time, but as it is I’m still working 3 days a week from home and can’t get to the racing. Feet up at the end of July though, and it will be gardening, leisurely days out and, hopefully fairly shortly, visits to racecourses!

    #1491567
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    No top rated winners but 2nd rated ChiefOfChiefs was 20/1 winner of the Silver Wokingham with top rated Gabrial The Wire 5th at a rewarding 50/1 for those able to take advantage of extended place terms.

    A near miss from third rated Summerghand in the main event, millimetres 2nd at 15/2 and surely will land a big sprint somewhere along the line. Winner Hey Jonesy was well off the radar having been out with the washing recently, but blinkers seemed to galvanise him.

    Disappointing returns from Newmarket but 3rd rated Deep Intrigue won at 9/2 beating the top rated into 2nd.

    A couple of competitive Class 3 contests today:

    Redcar
    3.15
    Shawaamekh 105
    Reeth 103
    Breanski 102

    Kempton
    4.55
    City Tour 103
    Emirates Knight 102
    Prejudice 101

    Results are mixed at the moment, presumably due to a mix of last season’s and this season’s form. I’ll start betting from July once we have a few weeks of form in the book. Of course there’s no clear break point these days with all-weather going no year round, though lockdown imposed a break this year.

    As a side issue I note that the tote returns for long priced Ascot winners were disappointing. The sooner the Tote out of the clutches of Betfred the better and put into the hands of an organisation that reduces the take out to stimulate interest. The Tote used to be the ideal alternative for long shots. It isn’t anymore, usurped by Betfair with no apparent desire by the proprietors to do anything about it.

    #1491597
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Blank today from 2 races.

    A decent card at Ayr to restart the Scottish circuit. Top race is the Land Of Burns Stakes, not within this project but seems to lie between the Michael Dods pair Que Amoro and Queens Gift and I can’t split them.

    Thirsk
    3.20
    Groveman 100
    Grandee 99
    Sassie 94

    Ayr
    3.40
    Lomu 113
    Powerallied 111
    Wentworth Falls 107

    4.50
    Mischief Star 98
    Clay Regazzoni 98
    Gobi Sunset 94

    5.20
    Al Qahwa 99
    Caustic Love 99
    Tadleel 96

    5.50
    Nicholas T 125
    Sandret 112
    Dark Lochnagar 109

    Bit of caution advised as Scottish stables have been slow starters with on local meetings. Nicholas T is well clear off the back of his Cambridgeshire form which is very strong, but makes his annual debut.

    #1491625
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16885

    I really don’t want to bet Nicholas T today, but I can’t ignore that price.

    #1491650
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4842

    Hope you were on, VtC!

    Method clicked today with 3 winners, Groveman 4/1, Mischief Star 9/4 and Nicholas T at the ludicrously generous price of 17/2!

    Puts top rated selections well into profit. We are dealing with competitive races here, so win strike rate is low, but returns more than making up for that thus far:

    Selections 63 Wins 11 Returns 80.24pts (1pt stake)

    Plenty of play there for those taking prices as well.

    No Qualifying races on Tuesday so powder stays dry until Wednesday June 24th.

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