Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[robnorth]

A couple of 2nd top rated winners today in Steelriver at 11-1 and Delilah Park at 9-2. Top rated were 2nd, 3rd and 2nd at Newbury in a meeting decimated by non-runners. The going hadn’t changed dramatically and trainers are taking the mickey given how difficult it is for some to get a run.

MOLL DAVIS was second at Newbury but looks one to be wary of as a late finisher. Might have a chance in big fields with lots of trailblazers but needs a race to fall right.

Struggling to find time to do all races down to Class 4 even on a non-working day, so sticking to Class 3 or better from now on to give me a manageable amount of races and the better horses. I hadn’t realised how much Class 4 stuff there was until this week. That said Saturday is very quiet decent handicap wise although only 4 meetings at the moment reduces the load!

I’ll give a few more than top 3 given the amount that came out at Newbury today.

SATURDAY JUNE 13

Doncaster
3.25 1m Class 3
Joyful Mission 105
Danielsflyer 104
Asdaa 100
Caustic Love 100
King’s Pavilion 99

Newbury
1.50 1m 2f Class 3 3yo
Gold Souk 102
Tell Me All 99
Its Good to Laugh 97

Sandown
2.15
Only 3 out of 8 run in handicap

3.15 1m Class 2
Muraad 108
The Gill Brothers 107
Mustarrid 106
Solid Stone 103

[robnorth]

Bit of a struggle at the moment, but I won’t be betting until start of July to let the form settle down. Royal Ascot could be anything this week, with a 24 runner pinstickers handicap to start with!

Today’s ratings

Goodwood
1.45
Electric Ladyland 95
Glamorous Anna 94
Pop Dancer 93

3.25
Gibraltar 95
Bodyline 92
Glenties 86

Doncaster
2.00
Camacho Chief 116
Tanasoq 116
Encore D’Or 113

3.10
Derevo 122
Archie Perkins 116
Sandret 111
Far and away the best handicap of the day and a very interesting contest. Derevo represents a very strong form line from end of last season. The others are decent though and just out of the picture Roger Fell’s Anythingtoday (rated 110) will have come on for a respectable first effort.

I’ll summarise results from Class 3 and better races after today’s racing. Despite a low key week I think results overall aren’t bad.

[robnorth]

Electric Ladyland obliged at 6/1 at Goodwood, just hanging in a close finish. Such are the margins ‘tween success and failure and I’ve had a few the other way.

Results for Class 3 and better handicap to date (top or joint top)

Selections 37 Wins 6 Returns 43.16

Sound enough for the start of the season, not far short of target 20% winners, and exchange bettors would have done a fair bit better.

MONDAY JUNE 15

Only one race qualifies at Pontefract and 3 out of 8 have no handicap form so I’ll give it a miss. Now on to trying to sort out some competitive stuff at Ascot. Ditching the Class 4 events takes the pressure off and allows me to concentrate properly on a decent set of races.

[robnorth]

TUESDAY JUNE 16

Royal Ascot

Handicaps at this meeting are a struggle at the best of times, even more so this season with little recent form to latch on to. However, one decent priced winner over the 5 days would see us on the way to a profit.

1.15 7f Buckingham Palace Handicap
Motakhayyel 125
Documenting 121
Keyser Soze 118
Kaeso 116

MOTAKHAYYEL looks very interesting here even in a big field. Progressive last season, he wasn’t seen after disappointing on rain softened ground in late July. Ground could be the key as he quick ground and wouldn’t want any more rain, but he’s lightly raced and there may be more to come.
Documenting’s rating reflects his all weather form and he’s not got near that on turf so far.
Keyser Soze has been near his best on the all-weather but has not made too much of a mark in these big field handicaps.
A repetition Kaeso‘s second here last July would give him every chance.

4.40 2m 4f Ascot Stakes

Cliffs Of Dooneen 109
Quloob 108
Dubawi Fifty 108
Summer Moon 106

A scabby handicap at the best of times and not my idea of fun! A mixture of flat plodders and jumpers looking for an opportunity during the break. SUMMER MOON ran a cracker to finish third in the Cesarewitch and might reasonably be expected to have matured a little more over the winter. Beaten by two very decent animals over a shorter trip subsequently.

Windsor

7.00 6f Class 3

Chairmanoftheboard 101
Yimou 100
Luxor 99

Chairmanoftheboard was a decent third at Newmarket to Bungee Jump who franked that form in Listed company at Goodwood. Must have every chance here with a race under his belt.

[robnorth]

A great start to Royal Ascot for the ratings with Motakhayyel winning at 14/1 on ground that was quicker than initial report suggested. a good demonstration that the rating system basis of using marker horses (in this case Flashcard) as a measure of form has a lot of merit, particularly in the better handicaps.
Chairmanoftheboard followed up at Windsor this evening at 100/30.

Top rated – Selections 40 Wins 8 Returns 62.49 pts (1 pt stake)

WEDNESDAY JUNE 17

1.15 1m ‘Silver’ Hunt Cup
Goring 117
Nicklaus 108
Salayel 108

Goring’s rating is based on all-weather form and he hasn’t won on turf for sometime. He has been running well over the winter though and can be backed at 33/1.

2.25 1m 4f King George V Handicap (3yo)
Group One Power 113
Locked N Loaded 111
Berkshire Savvy 109

Group One Power held at Yarmouth but gives the impression the step up in trip will help.

3.25 1m Royal Hunt Cup
Wargrave 128
Afaak 126
Fox Premier 122

Wargrave comes out top due to ‘back form’ from his last handicap but partly due to a win at 10 furlongs on the snow at St Moritz in February. Interesting prep race and selection from left field showing at 50/1!
Afaak needs a bit of rain to come into the equation.
Fox Premier definitely in the mix form bottom of the weights as there’s not a huge spread of weights in a wide open race.

4.40 1m 6f Handicap
Almania 120
Floating Artist 117
Ranch Hand 114

Almania was consistent but a length or two short of the mark on a number of occasions last term. Three fair efforts at the the course.

Chelmsford -Only qualifying handicap has 3 out of 5.

Tilting at windmills with top rates, but you only need to hit one at these prices.

[robnorth]

Never likely to be an easy day but a sprinkling of places with top rated Group One Power 4th at 28/1 and Almania 3rd at 12/1 both running creditable races.

Results: Selections 44 Wins 8 Returns 62.49pts

THURSDAY JUNE 18

Not a day I would get involved in seriously. Handicaps are 3yo events and many are making handicap debut. Ratings are given for information though and will be included in results. Always the chance I suppose that hardened handicappers might turn over their lighter raced opponents.

Royal Ascot
1.15
Gallaside 119
Yoshimi 117
HMS President 114

4.10
Grove Ferry 110
Amaysmont 109
Verboten 108
Kondratiev Wave 108

4.40
Separate 120
Huboor 112
Mrs Upjohn 110

Redcar

7.30
Sootability 94
Nkosikazi 92
Geetanjali 85

[robnorth]

The 3yo handicaps proved predictably unfathomable. Probably worth leaving them from a betting point of view until later in the season, even more so this season as horses with 2 runs get in.

A reverse forecast in the Recar event, Sootablity 2nd at 5/1, Nkosikazi won at 8/11.

FRIDAY JUNE 19

1.15 5f Class 2 3yo Handicap

The majority haven’t run in a handicap so no useful ratings.
As an aside to the ratings Art Power is probably very decent and is a confident selection. Impressive at York in soft last October and on seasonable debut at Newcastle.

4.40 1m 4f Class 2 Handicap

Le Don De Vie 123
Durston 121
Universal Order 119

Newmarket

4.20
Point In Time 100
Marbella 94
Tulip Fields 84

[robnorth]

Le Don De Vie ran a fair race for for fourth at Ascot. The Newmarket race was reduced to three runners with the top rated being withdrawn not entering the stalls.

I did at least manage a bonus winner as Art Power duly cruised clear in the opener at Ascot at 6/4, though 2/1 was available in the morning. Last time that one will compete in a handicap for a while with Group races presumably now on the agenda.

Selections 49 Wins 8 Return 62.49

SATURDAY JUNE 20

Fairly confident top rates in the two heats at Ascot can make their mark.

12.40 6f Class 2 Silver Wokingham Handicap
Gabrial The Wire 114
ChiefOfChiefs 113
Swindler 110
Count D’Orsay 110

4.10 6f Class 2 Wokingham Handicap
Lethal Lunch 114
Konchek 113
Summerghand 11

Newmarket

1.05 6f Class 3 3yo
Clareyblue 103
Magical Mix 102
Melody King 99

2.45 7f 3 Handicap
King Of Tonga 108
Ventura Ocean 103
Riviera Nights 102

4.25 1m 6f 3 Handicap
Good Tidings 101
Scaramanga 101
Noble Behest 98

Ripon

8.10 1m 2f Class 3 Handicap
Amjaady 96
Awake My Soul 95
Mutamaded 93

[robnorth]

Non-runners have carved up one of the races at Newmarket and we have lost top rated in another. Revised figures for two races:

Newmarket
1.05
Magical Mix 102
Punchbowl Flyer 97
Kidda 96

2.45
Ventura Ocean 103
Riviera Nights 102
Deep Intrigue 100

Probably not a thread to have a gripe about non-runners, but three are for ‘Going’ and it’s reported as good at Newmarket. Horses should not be pulled out on Good going.

Don’t even start me on ‘Self Certification’ which is a racket.

Anyway we can land a winner or two today and, with Scottish racing restarting, there is a decent card to look forward to at Ayr on Monday. I had hoped to be retired and watching racing as much as possible at this time, but as it is I’m still working 3 days a week from home and can’t get to the racing. Feet up at the end of July though, and it will be gardening, leisurely days out and, hopefully fairly shortly, visits to racecourses!

[robnorth]

No top rated winners but 2nd rated ChiefOfChiefs was 20/1 winner of the Silver Wokingham with top rated Gabrial The Wire 5th at a rewarding 50/1 for those able to take advantage of extended place terms.

A near miss from third rated Summerghand in the main event, millimetres 2nd at 15/2 and surely will land a big sprint somewhere along the line. Winner Hey Jonesy was well off the radar having been out with the washing recently, but blinkers seemed to galvanise him.

Disappointing returns from Newmarket but 3rd rated Deep Intrigue won at 9/2 beating the top rated into 2nd.

A couple of competitive Class 3 contests today:

Redcar
3.15
Shawaamekh 105
Reeth 103
Breanski 102

Kempton
4.55
City Tour 103
Emirates Knight 102
Prejudice 101

Results are mixed at the moment, presumably due to a mix of last season’s and this season’s form. I’ll start betting from July once we have a few weeks of form in the book. Of course there’s no clear break point these days with all-weather going no year round, though lockdown imposed a break this year.

As a side issue I note that the tote returns for long priced Ascot winners were disappointing. The sooner the Tote out of the clutches of Betfred the better and put into the hands of an organisation that reduces the take out to stimulate interest. The Tote used to be the ideal alternative for long shots. It isn’t anymore, usurped by Betfair with no apparent desire by the proprietors to do anything about it.

[robnorth]

Blank today from 2 races.

A decent card at Ayr to restart the Scottish circuit. Top race is the Land Of Burns Stakes, not within this project but seems to lie between the Michael Dods pair Que Amoro and Queens Gift and I can’t split them.

Thirsk
3.20
Groveman 100
Grandee 99
Sassie 94

Ayr
3.40
Lomu 113
Powerallied 111
Wentworth Falls 107

4.50
Mischief Star 98
Clay Regazzoni 98
Gobi Sunset 94

5.20
Al Qahwa 99
Caustic Love 99
Tadleel 96

5.50
Nicholas T 125
Sandret 112
Dark Lochnagar 109

Bit of caution advised as Scottish stables have been slow starters with on local meetings. Nicholas T is well clear off the back of his Cambridgeshire form which is very strong, but makes his annual debut.

[Venture to Cognac]

I really don’t want to bet Nicholas T today, but I can’t ignore that price.

[robnorth]

Hope you were on, VtC!

Method clicked today with 3 winners, Groveman 4/1, Mischief Star 9/4 and Nicholas T at the ludicrously generous price of 17/2!

Puts top rated selections well into profit. We are dealing with competitive races here, so win strike rate is low, but returns more than making up for that thus far:

Selections 63 Wins 11 Returns 80.24pts (1pt stake)

Plenty of play there for those taking prices as well.

No Qualifying races on Tuesday so powder stays dry until Wednesday June 24th.

[robnorth]

WEDNESDAY JUNE 24

Haydock

1.40
Music Society 112
Venturous 103
Daschas 103

3.40
High Flying Bird 109
Rich Belief 106
Lucander 105

5.50
Gold Souk 102
Cedar Cage 100
Pot Of Paint 99

[Venture to Cognac]

Yeah, I was on Rob, happy to get on at 10’s.

I wasn’t 100% confident, thought he might be having a quiet introduction, but couldn’t ignore those odds.

[robnorth]

Well done!

Nicholas T represented a very strong form line coming out of the Cambridgeshire. Lord North is used as the ‘measure’ for that race, now rated 116, and generally the form looks strong. Apart from all else Lord North is doing the family name proud! Royal Hunt Cup winner Dark Vision finished 7th in the Cambridgeshire, but I didn’t have him rated so highly as his rating race was his second to Sir Busker. Might have made a difference if Sir Busker had been able to be re-assessed before the Hunt Cup!

The way the formula works if the winner of the race progresses then beaten horses are judged as having a good chance in future. Winner would be judged against the second so rules do tend to mitigate against last time out winners, unless the second subsequently boosts the form as second would be the ‘measure’ for the form of the winner. There is an allowance for recent form though, so horses beaten a long way in their recent races won’t score high even if the winner is progressive.

The rating formula originated in the days when weights were set 3 weeks in advance, so progressive horses could stay in front of the handicapper. In those days the Official Ratings weren’t available so had to be divined from the Handicap Book entries or the Racing Calendar. The method is easier to use now as all ratings are published and it seems effective under current conditions.

One race Thursday and one Friday before a whole host of decent handicaps on Saturday.

[robnorth]

Double figure placed runners in each race but no winners listed though Mountain Peak (won 5-1) inherited 3rd rating in the 1.40.

THURSDAY JUNE 25

Just the one qualifying race and a very competitive contest with the pack lining up behind the top-rated.

1.15
Fighting Irish 111
Buridan 108
Sir Maximilian 108
Top Breeze 108
Motagally 108

[Author]

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