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A rattling good day yesterday (Saturday) with winners all over the place. I had my best betting day since I started compiling these ratings with 6 winners from 11 using the shortest priced of the top 3 criteria. I took a snap shot of the market at 12 noon and made my selections then. There was difference or two with selections at SP, but result was still 6 from 11.
Lincoln remains a total mystery but Artistic Rifles was joint 3rd rated winner of the Spring Mile with both Spiorad and Howser Black close up. On the face of the early turf season period should be tough, but last year saw very good results from an enforced ‘cold start’ in June so I’m hopeful I’ll do nicely in the next few weeks.
A busy Easter weekend is preceded by a steady flow of qualifying races this week, although entries suggest mainly small fields. There’s a mares’ races at Wincanton tomorrow but only 2 out of 5 are rated so I’ll give that one a miss.
MONDAY MARCH 29
Stratford
3.20 Bannixtown Glory 155; Flemcara 133; Rio Quinto 130
3.50 Rocco 138; Midnightreferendum 136; Baron de Midleton 136I’ve been using both Racing Post and BHA sites to calculate my figures. Both work well although BHA site doesn’t list Irish racing, though the IHRB site can be used in conjunction. The Racing Post don’t seem to update Irish horses’ Official Ratings until they are actually entered, so swings and roundabouts. I was finding Racing Post was taking ages to load, but I’ve found if you strip results window down to bare minimum of required information then it loads much quicker. Essentially as long as I have the latest rating of the winner or second of the form race then I can calculate a rating.
Rattling good couple of days with some decent winners. I evne managed to back Gunmetal to win at 15/2, his first win since 2018. On a day when Singlefarmpayment won though anything else is straight forward!
Top rated had a few near misses but taking the shortest priced ahs worked well for me in the last few days.
Ratings for the next couple of days:
TUESDAY MARCH 30
Newcastle
2.35 Nikgarde 141; Clondaw Caitlin 139; Finisk River 138
3.10 Ascot Du Bruyere 138; Buck Dancing 135; Rock On Fruity 132
Warwick
3.35 Fanzio 152; Atlantic Storm 137; Generous Day 135
Fakenham
4.30 Beau Bay 155; Antony 148; Oh Land Abloom 148
Wolverhampton
6.40 Boss Power 105; Singing The Blues 101; Songkran 91WEDNESDAY MARCH 31
Ludlow
1.00 Master Work 141;Gortroe Joe 139; Evander 126; Blacko 126
1.30 Decoration Of War 152; The Bees Knees 142; River Bray 140
2.00 Coolanly 146; Ballyway 144; Town Perks 140
2.30 Crossgalesfamegame 133; Precious Eleanor 131; Barbados Blue 130A tad frustrating today, but figures have done well enough recently. Results so far today kept up the 50% from top 3, but that’s a bit of a ‘Liars, Damned Liars and Statisticians’* case as the two winners were in 4 runner races and weren’t top.
THURSDAY APRIL 1
Uttoxeter
2.05 Eclair D’Ainay 143; Beaufort West 141; Myplaceatmidnight 140; Oski 140
2.40 Golden Taipan 145; Stormy Flight 135; Guernesey 129; Chinwag 126
Ffos Las
4.37 Seaston Spirit 152; Eclair Mag 142; Dawson City 142; Amateur 142* Favourite phrase of my Statistics lecturer at Slough College back in 19 hundred and frozen to death.
End of month and time to take another look at the returns.
Results so far in 2021:
Top Rated(including joints): 57 winners from 330 (17.3%) returning 308.13
Single top (taking highest up the handicap if equal top): 53 from 295 (18%) returning 284.52
Shortest Priced of Top 3: 81 from 295 (27.5%) returning 284.33
All Races Top 3: 148 from 295 (50.2%)As you can see it doesn’t take a huge amount of shopping around to get in front on the final category and I’m 13% up on my own betting this year using this category with Betfair SP. Fifty percent from top 3 is better than last year, but field sizes are smaller over the winter in the better class handicaps. Still very pleasing though in the most competitive contests.
Not a huge amount of action on Friday as most of the key events on the all-Weather are non-handicaps. However, the closing apprentice contest at Lingfield is the strongest such event of the year and would grace any flat festival. Practically the whole field within 5lbs, but Harrison Point is 6lbs clear though drawn out near Gatwick Airport!
FRIDAY APRIL 2
Chelmsford
1.50 Katheefa 108; Riot 104; Endowed 104; Sky Commander 101; Fred 101
3.35 Intrepidly 100; Rhubarb Bikini 100; Shelir 99
4.07 United Front 116; Zabeel Champion 111; Habit Rouge 103Lingfield
5.15 Harrison Point 117; Revolutionise 111; Total Commitment 110; Baby Steps 110; Oh This Is Us 109; Lethal Lunch 109Plenty of action on Saturday particularly with a set of Challenger Finals at Haydock and some decent flat handicaps at Musselburgh. I’ve given four in each race as quickening ground could cause a non-runner or two.
SATURDAY APRIL 3
Haydock
1.00 Emmpressive Lady 139; Hotter Than Hell 139; Shantung 136; Llantara 136
1.30 Admiral Barratry 147; Prudhomme 146; Barton Knoll 145; Niven 139
2.05 Dino Velvet 151; Shantou Express 147; Vision Du Puy 140; Nordic Combined 137
2.40 Innisfree Lad 143; Strictlydancer 143; Versatility 142; Crossley Tender 140
3.15 Outonpatrol 144; Republican 144; Neverbeen to Paris 143; Crossgalesfamegame 142; Tango Bay 141
3.50 The Bay Birch 151; Jubilympics 147; Rose Of Aghaboe 143; Oriental Cross 141
Musselburgh
1.50 Ejtilaab 111; Gallipoli 106; Marshal Don 104; Molls Memory 103
3.00 Son And Sannie 114; Mokaatil 111; Tarboosh 109; Jabbarockie 109; Caspian Prince 108; Count D’Orsay 108; Latin Five 108 (A very tight event within most of the rest within another 2lbs)
3.35 Themaxwecan 118; Stargazer 117; Diocletian 116; Torcello 113
Carlisle
3.23 Some Reign 149; Eamon An Cnoic 148; Mint Gold 140; Dali Mali 140
3.58 Presence Felt 129; Show Promise 121; Sketrick 119; Hidden Dilemma 117
Newton Abbot
5.25 Champagne Court 151; Sizing Codelco 139; Count Meribel 123; Brother Tedd 116Some decent top rated winners today, Innisfree Lad poking his nose in front close home at 18/1. Themaxwecan showed plenty of determination to hold on at Musselburgh at 13/2 shortly after the enigmatic Some Reign had a going day at 9/1.
SUNDAY APRIL 4
Market Rasen
3.10 Aye Aye Charlie 143; Equus Dancer 142; Fraternel 138
Plumpton
3.26 Natural History 160; Brandon Castle 151; Diego Du Charmil 143; Sebastapol 143MONDAY APRIL 5
Chepstow
3.10 Before Midnight 163; Ashutor 149; Solar Impulse 147 (amended for N-R 10:10 5/4)
3.45 Gleno 141; Ballycross 139; Buster Thomas 139; Crievehill 116Redcar
3.25 Intrinsic Bond 109; Bomb Proof 103; Redrosezorro 101; Gale Force Maya 100Kempton
2.20 Lihou 112; Royal Birth 111; Top Breeze 111; Blue De Vega 109; Han Solo Berger 108
4.35 Pretending 101; Vibrance 101; Al Kout 101; Starczewski 99; Prince Imperial 99
5.10 Fresh 112; Lord Rapscallion 106; Jonah Jones 105Plumpton
3.55 The Unit 152; Solomon Grey 151; Pistol Whipped 148; Dr Sanderson 147
4.55 Iconic Muddle 141; Fairway Freddy 133; Doukarov 132A good sprinkling of winners in top three today.
TUESDAY APRIL 6
Pontefract
2.00 Victory Chime 115; Highwaygrey 114; Fishable 111
Exeter
2.50 Art Approval 135; Wargrave 127; Crooks Peak 120
Chelmsford
6.00 Royal Dynasty 104; Thrill Seeker 95; Pinnata 94
7.00 Count Of Amazonia 112; The Gill Brothers 109; Gloves Lynch 104A couple of top rated winners at time of writing and the one race we didn’t get produced a potential Group performer winner in Waldkonig.
Ratings for next two days including one handicap on the opening day of the Aintree meeting.
WEDNESDAY APRIL 7
Nottingham
4.40 Ayr Harbour 121; Finest Sound 107; Nugget 107; Turn On The Charm 121
Newcastle
5.45 Rare Groove 103; Charlie D 99; Cosmelli 98
6.45 Invinicibly 91; Forest Falcon 90; Aerion Power 89THURSDAY APRIL 8
Taunton
3.40 Umndeni 153; Calva D’Auge 138; Lady KK 134
Aintree
4.05 Sully D’Oc AA 163; Dostal Phil 155; Gaelik Coast 155; Destrier 155; Joke Dancer 154Next two days are a mixture of ultra-competitive handicaps at Aintree with egg and spoon races elsewhere. Top rated selections now close to break even for the year with a few recent winners.
FRIDAY APRIL 9
Aintree
1.45 Stolen Silver 161; Monte Cristo 158; Nightboattoclyro 157; Edwardstone 154; Mister Coffey 154
4.05 Lust For Glory 171; Magic Saint 169; Modus 169; Caribean Boy 168; Robin Des Forets 166
5.15 Beeno 167; The Grey Falco 165; Wild Max 159; Fransham 159; Leoncavallo 159; Native Fighter 159
Leicester
3.15 Crimson King 99; Boss Power 89; Amazing Red 87
Kempton
7.40 My Frankel 110; Taqreer 107; Just In Time 106SATURDAY APRIL 10
Aintree
1.45 Corrieben Reiver 155; Southfield Harvest 155; Barnaviddaun 154; Earlofthecotswolds 154; Tommy Rapper 153
4.15 Hold The Note 168; Cloudy Glen 164; JohnBB 164;Top Notch 163; Spiritofthegames 162GRAND NATIONAL
5.15 Any Second Now 184; Farclas 181; Yala Enki 180; Kimberlite Candy 179; Vieux Lion Rouge 177; Give Me A Copper 177; Double Shuffle 177Lingfield
2.00 Recon Mission 96; Outrage 94; Just Glamorous 92; Newyorkstateofmind 92
Chepstow
2.45 Broken Quest 136; Saint De Reve 135
Newcastle
3.40 Orkan 151; Lively Citizen 136; Beach Break 133
4.10 Ascot Du Bruyere 133; Defi Sacre 126; Cracking Find 130
Wolverhampton
6.45 Rajinsky 104; Sharp Suited 99; Ben Lilly 97; Vindolanda 97; Golden Rules 90+Busy section of the forum so update avoids me disappearing off the front page!
Non runners made a dent in Aintree 1.45 for which top 3 are now:
Barnaviddaun 154; Earlofthecotswolds 154; Tommy Rapper 153Optimistic of getting some of the top rates in the National right in the mix. The figures have a good feel about them.
Ratings for the next couple of days below. Kelso race again and I will be champing at the bit to get back there, with a glimmer of hope that Members might be back for the final meeting at the end of May. Jumps scene comes to a decent climax in the next two weeks up here with excellent racing in prospect at Ayr and Perth.
SUNDAY APRIL 11
Kelso
3.36 On A Promise 138; Empire De Maulde 130; Raeceus Felix 129
Plumpton
3.20 Neff 134; South Terrace 122; Top Man 115MONDAY APRIL 12
Huntingdon
3.30 Go Steady 147; Flaminger 134; Siannes Star 129
Windsor
3.40 Edraak 109; Beyond Equal 98; Bimble 97; My Style 97; Triggered 97
Redcar
3.20 Jewel Maker 104; Home Before Dusk 103; Zhui Feng 101; Defence Treaty 100EDRAAK looks very well favoured at Windsor but that is on his all-weather form. Didn’t make a mark in two turf handicaps last year, but I’m not one who worries at awful lot about the surface difference with course configuration often being more of an issue.
Broke even at SP today on top rated, a small profit at BSP. Defence Treaty won at a big price but just outside the top 3 at Redcar.
Good few days handicap racing coming up with Newmarket really kicking the turf flat season into life.
TUESDAY APRIL 13
Newmarket
2.45 Scottish Summit 109; Hortzadar 107; Rhythmic Intent 107; Makram 107
3.55 Blackheath 123; Eastern World 117; Magical Wish 116; Sanaadh 114
4.30 Illusionist 109; Agent Shiftwell 103; Equitation 100; Invincible Larne 100
Newton Abbot
1.50 Glory And Honour 137; State Crown 136; Twin Star 133
2.55 Go Long 141; Ballyhill 133; Sir Sholokov 130A busy day tomorrow with a very decent card loaded with handicaps at Cheltenham.
WEDNESDAY APRIL 14
Newmarket
1.50 Stone Of Destiny 112; Dazzling Dan 112; Count Otto 111; Additional 107Cheltenham
2.05 Two Taffs 173; Coole Cody 168; Romain De Senam 167; The Big Bite 162
2.40 Global Society 152; Winds Of Fire 146; Java Point 144; Back On The Lash 143
3.15 Reve 147; Subcontinent 145; Accordingtogino 142; The Devils Drop 141; Benevolentdictator 141
3.50 Apple Rock 159; The Domino Effect 153; Perfect Man 147; Storm Goddess 146
4.25 Enqarde 157; Coo Star Sivola 155; Rocky’s Treasure 148; Singlefarmpayment 148
5.00 Oakley 150; Hooper 150; Sarasota Star 142; Elham Valley 141; Nordic Combined 141Beverley
4.00 Ginger Jam 105; Nibras Again 99; Music Society 98; Saluti 97THURSDAY APRIL 15
Cheltenham
2.40 She’sasupermack 157; Yeavering Belle 152; The Bay Birch 151; Bannixtown Glory 150; Our Dot’s Baby 150
3.15 Win My Wings 135; Madera Mist 133; Lucca Lady 128; Jubilympics 127
4.25 Sacre Couer 147; Northern Beau 146; Cut The Mustard 143Ripon
4.00 Glasses Up 110; Wait For The Lord 107; Fishable 105; Society Red 104; Howzer Black 104A busy day on Friday then a very quiet Saturday with the two main meetings moved to Sunday.
FRIDAY APRIL 16
Ayr
1.30 Beyond The Pale 134; Le Cheval Noir 132; Yes No Maybe So 130; Lord Accord 130
2.05 Jaboticaba 134; Lucky Flight 134; Eskendash 133
2.40 Didonato 136; Coded Message 134; Global Harmony 132; Aurora Thunder 132
3.15 Barton Knoll 166; Schiehallion Munro 160; Not That Fuisse 159
3.50 Orkan 146; Dubai Days 142; Dino Velvet 134; Torigni 132
4.27 Major Dundee 142; Skipthescales 130; Jessiemac 129; No Regrets 128; The Ogle Gogle Man 128
Newbury
1.40 King’s Lynn 120; Came From The Dark 113; Blue De Vega 113; Garrus 110
2.15 Author’s Dream 115; Solo Saxophone 109; Couer De Lion 109; Dancing Harry 109
Fontwell
3.00 Ocean Cove 138; Fact Of The Matter 111; Plantagenet 111
Exeter
5.50 Cotswold Way 151; Jarveys Plate 141; Jersey Wonder 137SATURDAY APRIL !7
Thirsk
1.40 Kitten’s Dream 107; Jeremiah 106; Al Madhar 105Some very tough handicaps to crack tomorrow. I have most of the field within 8lbs in the Newbury Spring Cup and not far short of similar in the Scottish National. Good to see a plethora of decent Scottish contenders in the latter event.
SUNDAY APRIL 18
Wincanton
2.15 Get The Appeal 134; Breaking Waves 130; Ask Himself 123Newbury
3.20 Gin Palace 119; Danyah 118; Matthew Flinders 118; HMS President 117; The Gill Brothers 115; National League 115Ayr
1.15 Return Ticket 158; Duke Of Navan 151; Some Reign 143; Theinval 142
1.50 Dead Right 159; Admiral Barratry 154; Hurricane Harvey 152; Flegmatik 146; Pilbara 146
2.25 Milkwood 159; Glory And Fortune 159; Anna Bunina 158; Voix Du Reve 157; Miss Heritage 157
3.35 Dino Boy 165; The Ferry Master 164; Cool Mix 164; Aye Right 163; Notachance 162; Enqarde 162
4.10 Weather Front 150; Wetlands 142; Enemy Coast Ahead 142; Ashington 139
4.45 Floating Rock 135; Deniliquin 134; Show Promise 134; Castletown 134A couple of winners and a couple of near misses in the big handicaps today. Decent week coming up with Epsom on Tuesday then some decent handicaps at the Perth Festival (that THE festival!) before the jumping finale at Sandown. Returns have dipped a little but it’s ‘between seasons’ so pretty much what I’d expect.
Bit of rain forecast up here, which Perth will welcome, but with 4 runner fields in both Class 3s at Kempton I reckon a few are doing a rain dance down that way. Five runners for the Great Metropolitan, it’s not the same as in ‘the old days’ 2m 2f twisting across the Downs, and I do feel the race either needs to be a bit more high profile or put quietly to bed. That said, looks very tight on my figures.
Ratings for the next couple of days:
MONDAY APRIL 19
Pontefract
1.30 Venturous 112; Mondammes 106; Mokaatil 105
Hexham
3.22 Embole 149; Teescomponents Lad 140; Ask Paddington 132; Eviscerating 132
Market Rasen
6.00 Linelee King 139; Supakalinistic 137; Shinobi 137; Tight Call 136
Kempton
7.20 Psychedelic Rock 151; Quarenta 150; Templepark 146
7.50 Switch Hitter 139; Prince Escalus 137; Oscar Rose 135TUESDAY APRIL 20
Epsom
1.45 Spoof 105; Dark Shot 102; Recon Mission 94; Militia 94
2.50 Sarvan 120; Victory Chime 117; Man Of The Night 116; Alfred Boucher 113
3.55 Soto Sizzler 105; Valyrian Steel 105; Group One Power 105; Galahad Threepwood 101Wolverhampton
7.20 Gobi Sunset 112; Baby Steps 103; Gabrial The Devil 102; Margub 102Possible best over the two days is GOBI SUNSET at Wolves on Tuesday. Progressive of late and ran into a rapid improver last time.
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