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A sprinkling of top three winners yesterday and the enigmatic Recon Mission clicked today at Epsom, a five furlong course which presumably suits his quirky temperament, but gives few opportunities over the season. I presume Epsom have now overcome restrictions that prevented them from using the five furlong course last term.
Fairly busy midweek with some decent action at Perth.
WEDNESDAY APRIL 21
Ludlow
1.35 Solar Impulse 136; Baby King 132; Swift Crusader 118
2.40 Bbold 137; Tinkers Hill Tommy 127; Very First Time 117; Kapgarry 117
Perth
1.55 Do Not Disturb 139; Overworkdunderpaid 136; Glenduff 135; Uptown Harry 131
3.00 Francky Du Berlais 138; Fortescue 137; The Wolf 131; Valtor 111
3.35 Serious Ego 146; Golden Town 145; McGowan’s Pass 138; The Bees Knees 136
Catterick
2.50 Streak Lightning 96; Muntadab 94; Queen’s Sargent 93; Parys Mountain 93THURSDAY APRIL 22
Warwick
3.05 Supremely Lucky 140; Vive Le Roi 137; Aimee De Sivola 137Perth
2.20 Sao 148; Ardera Cross 145; Isaac Wonder 141
2.55 Niven 156; Defi Scare 148; Pistol Whipped 143
3.30 Seven Eye Bridge 138; Present Chief 137; Spirit Of Waterloo 136; Republican 132
Chelmsford
6.15 Shimmering Dawn 118; Corinthia Knight 115; Breath Of Joy 108
Exeter
6.25 Magic Dancer 136; Gallow Ford 128; Art Approval 124; Coal Stock 122The percentage in top 3 is hovering around the 50% mark still…, but given the amount of small fields recently that’s no great surprise! Nice top rated winner today in Severn Eye Bridge 12/1 at Perth.
One of my season highlights tomorrow in the Highland National which looks a competitive event, though a tad frustrating to see two non-runners when NINE were balloted out. Not happy with Laura Morgan who declared Overworkdunderpaid despite it running yesterday. Where events are oversubscribed it surely isn’t beyond the wit of the BHA to list reserves? MANCE RAYDER (18/1 early price) tops the ratings and a steady improver worth an each-way punt.
FRIDAY APRIL 23
Perth
2.05 Mint Gold 142; Captain Blackpearl 136; Collooney 134; Fire Away 128
2.40 Mance Rayder 136; Big Difference 134; Boyhood 132; Duc De Grissay 131; Tea Time On Mars 131; The Wicket Chicken 131
3.15 Getareason 139; Tayzar 139; Gunsight Ridge 137; Prince Kayf 137
Chepstow
7.05 Candy Burg 156; Le Milos 139; Rocco 135On Saturday there are some decent field sizes at Sandown but disappointing entries for some flat races.
SATURDAY APRIL 24
Sandown
3.40 Potterman 168; El Presente 159; Checkitout 159; Doing Fine 158; Crosspark 154
4.50 Falco Blitz 157; Belargus 153; Killer Clown 146; Not That Fuisse 146
5.25 Solo 149; Cervaro Mix 149; Thibault 148; Haafapiece 147
Ripon
3.15 Madeeh 115; Zabeel Champion 110; Faylaq 105
3.50 Notation 112; Rajinsky 108; Themaxwecan 107
4.25 Fortamour 111; Muscika 110; Desert Safari 108; Citron Major 92
5.00 Eagle Court 103; Garden Oasis 102; Daafr 101
Haydock
2.50 Persuasion 104; Firmament 103; Dreamloper 103; Marshal Don 101
4.35 Ouzo 117; Redarna 115; Amber Island 113; Shelir 112
Doncaster
5.55 Wait Forever 102; Highwaygrey 98; Fierospeed 94
Wolverhampton
7.15 Harmonious 108; Labeebb 107; Knight Crusader 105; Mafia Power 101Today’s 7.05 is a right carve up with the top 3 all non-runners leaving three with various doubts about them. For the record ratings are:
Kauto The King 133; Steely Addition 116; Chirico Vallis –
Kauto The King has too much ‘previous’ to be trusted at odds-on, blinkers are applied to out of form Steely Addition seemingly in desperation. Chirico Vallis returns to chasing after a fair while, but he’s been in rattling good form over hurdles and has won off a break. any odds against price the latter might appeal.
Perth ratings remain untouched by non-runners. Perth gets ‘first dibs’ over the city works on abstraction* from the Tay so no problem with keeping the ground no faster than good.
* I did the Manuals for the Gowans Terrace Water Works so a bit of inside knowledge!
A decent day today, though have to consider myself very lucky to have a top rated winner in Potterman, inheriting first place in the Betfred Gold Cup at 12/1 though he was clearly third best on the day. Persuasion was a winner at 8/1 at Haydock and the ‘Single top’ selections just short of break even for the year. Harmonious was second at 40/1 but arrived late behind a clear winner.
No qualifying races tomorrow Sunday April 25.
Small fields abound at the start of the week, reminiscent of mid-summer before watering became prevalent. Firm ground isn’t an excuse these days and you do wonder if there’s simply too much racing programmed. Five meetings a day Monday to Friday seems at least one too many and arguably two.
Low key action in the main in the Class 3 grade. The Yarmouth contest on Tuesday gives the dilemma of a horse well weighted on all-weather form, but shown nothing on turf for a good time, up against 3 who have been off their game in recent outings.
MONDAY APRIL 26
Ayr
2.10 Commanche Falls 100; Never In Paris 100; Call Me Ginger 95; George Bowen 94TUESDAY APRIL 27
Yarmouth
3.50 Revolutionise 104; Campari 92; Lethal Lunch 84; Dazzling Dan 84
Nottingham
3.20 Separate 108; Lights On 97; Crystal Casque 97; Madame Tantzy 95
4.30 Manjaam 116; Hochfeld 105; Lostwithiel 100; Speedo Boy 99
Lingfield
6.20 Dulcima 102; Kaleidoscope 101; True Scarlet 98; Lottie Marie 94Commanche Falls won nicely today at 10/3 seeing off woefully underpriced Bielsa who was struggling on my figures.
WEDNESDAY APRIL 28
Ascot
1.00 Balgair 110; Keyser Soze 108; Repertoire 106; Papa Stour 105THURSDAY APRIL 29
Chelmsford
7.15 Tritonic 110; Habit Rouge 110; Rhythmic Intent 109; Dawaam 106
Southwell
7.25 Ravenscar 99; Charlie D 97; Cosmelli 93; Alfredo 91Keyser Soze was a nice 12/1 second top rated today and I really should have backed it. Made a very good case over top rated Balgair, but late on noticed I’d misread the distance and doubts crept in. What I should have remembered is that if you have a load of positives then let the trainer worry about the rest. Most of all, DON’T CHANGE YOUR MIND!
FRIDAY APRIL 30
Goodwood
1.00 Open Wide 99; Minhaaj 99; Concierge 94; Top Breeze 93
3.20 Cahors 101; Warrior Brave 90; Nelson Gay 89; Peerless 89; Campachoochoo 89
Musselburgh
4.05 Dubai Souq 97; Mukhayyam 93; Glasses Up 89
Newcastle
6.20 Master The Stars 106; Lunar Jet 101; Arabic Culture 101; High Commissioner 100; Mr Carpenter 100
7.25 Riot 110; Raatea 108; Taawfan 107; Kaeso 105; Lord Oberon 105Fields sizes have been small recently, even on the all-weather, but it’s significant to me that Newcastle fields are all in double figures. Keep an eye on Newcastle races in the coming weeks to take forward form to the likes of Newmarket, York and Ascot. I do think the market continues to look down it’s nose at AW form, but the key with Newcastle is its galloping nature which provides a decent test and provides reliable form. I believe Tapeta form carries forward to anything but going extremes on the turf. Two very decent Class 3 handicap contests at the North East of England venue on Friday.
A busy weekend with fields mainly in single figures, though well done to Thirsk for bucking that trend and producing a 16 runner line-up for the Thirsk Hunt Cup. There are also a couple of competitive looking jump contests at Uttoxeter.
SATURDAY MAY 1
Newmarket
1.15 Uncle Jumbo 105; Bickerstaffe 104; Creative Force 97; Perotto 92
1.50 Overwrite 116; Starcat 115; Maydanny 113; Mascat 112
4.15 Chil Chil 105; Count Otto 103; Embour 103; Raaeb 101
5.25 Tornadic 116; Crossford 102; Forest Falcon 99; Zwelela 94;
Goodwood
1.30 Billy Mill; 96; Teodolina 92; Farasi Lane 85; It’s A Love Thing 83
2.35 Magical Wish 110; Tintoretto 107; Tinto 104; Fred 102; King’s Knight 102
3.10 Mountain Peak 113; Desert Safari 110; Blue De Vega 108; Lihou 107
Uttoxeter
3.05 Sebastapol 143; Some Day Soon 141; Ey Up Rocky 140; Diese Bes Bieffes 137; Vive Le Roi 137
3.35 Saint Xavier 166; Captain Tommy 165; King Of Realms 155; Ofalltheginjoints 151;
Thirsk
2.40 Acquitted 110; Tom Collins 106; Byron’s Choice 104; Scottish Summit 102; Jean Baptiste 102
Doncaster
5.00 Via Serendipity 103; Danzan 103; Blackheath 101; Triggered 101
6.05 Captain Copper 99; Willyorwon’t He 96; Aerion Power 94; Luckiness 91
6.35 Danzeno 106; Lampang 106; Aberama Gold 106; Lexington Dash 106; Magical Spirit 104
Hexham
7.25 Laskadine 148; Aire Valley Lad 139; Frightened Rabbit 136; Nordic Combined 133Interesting one for me is SAINT XAVIER at Uttoxeter. His form figures don’t read at all well, but he’s been given a chance by the handicapper. fourth to Double Shuffle reads well enough in relation to this race and that was on better ground than many of his recent races.
SUNDAY MAY 2
Newmarket
1.50 Hyanna 115; Grand Bazaar 114; Sky Defender 110; Zabeel Champion 105; Global Storm 105
4.50 Parachute 101; Defined 99; Echo Point 98
Salisbury
2.05 Midnights Legacy 106; Opera Gift 106; Hasanabad 104; Gumball 104
Hamilton
2.40 The Navigator 113; Nicholas T 110; Great Esteem 108; Morisco 104; The Trader 104Interesting little contest for the Buttonhook Handicap at Hamilton Park. I’d happily take the two top rated against the field with NICHOLAS T catching the eye. He won nicely from subsequent improver Cardeno last November over the extended 12 furlong at Newcastle. Jim Goldie does well with his veterans, the step up in trip seems to have wrought some improvement and he won first time last season. Dianne Sayer’s stable go well at this time of year so stick in The Navigator for a forecast.
Almost pulled off a big win at Goodwood, top rated Cahors at 33/1 just held by second rated Warrior Brave. Favourite Nelson Gay was well beaten and it shows how it’s worth opposing the obvious on occasions if your method tells you otherwise. Nice performance by the filly Cahors upped in class, showing plenty of determination and one to note over five furlongs.
End of April so an update on results so far this year:
Top Rated(including joints): 84 wins from 489 selections (17.2%) returning 458.31
Shortest priced of Top 3: 107 wins from 437 (24.5%) returning 370.50
Single top (highest in handicap if joints): 78 wins from 437 (17.8%) returning 425.22 (97.3%)
All races Top 3: 215 wins from 437 (49.2%)Best returns coming from the ‘Single Top’ selections with not far short of break even, with ‘Shortest Priced’ selection struggling a bit. Avoiding backing multiples horses in a race seems to be best. Once again single selection in the most competitive handicaps showing up very well over a period of time and suggesting the method remains in front of the market.
Top 3 just below 50% winners, although that does include a handful of 3 runner races and one with only two. all in all that’s probably about the equivalent of the near 40% winners ratings achieved last year.
Weekend ratings below again as a reminder as they have disappeared a few posts up!
SATURDAY MAY 1
Newmarket
1.15 Uncle Jumbo 105; Bickerstaffe 104; Creative Force 97; Perotto 92
1.50 Overwrite 116; Starcat 115; Maydanny 113; Mascat 112
4.15 Chil Chil 105; Count Otto 103; Embour 103; Raaeb 101
5.25 Tornadic 116; Crossford 102; Forest Falcon 99; Zwelela 94;
Goodwood
1.30 Billy Mill; 96; Teodolina 92; Farasi Lane 85; It’s A Love Thing 83
2.35 Magical Wish 110; Tintoretto 107; Tinto 104; Fred 102; King’s Knight 102
3.10 Mountain Peak 113; Desert Safari 110; Blue De Vega 108; Lihou 107
Uttoxeter
3.05 Sebastapol 143; Some Day Soon 141; Ey Up Rocky 140; Diese Bes Bieffes 137; Vive Le Roi 137
3.35 Saint Xavier 166; Captain Tommy 165; King Of Realms 155; Ofalltheginjoints 151;
Thirsk
2.40 Acquitted 110; Tom Collins 106; Byron’s Choice 104; Scottish Summit 102; Jean Baptiste 102
Doncaster
5.00 Via Serendipity 103; Danzan 103; Blackheath 101; Triggered 101
6.05 Captain Copper 99; Willyorwon’t He 96; Aerion Power 94; Luckiness 91
6.35 Danzeno 106; Lampang 106; Aberama Gold 106; Lexington Dash 106; Magical Spirit 104
Hexham
7.25 Laskadine 148; Aire Valley Lad 139; Frightened Rabbit 136; Nordic Combined 133SUNDAY MAY 2
Newmarket
1.50 Hyanna 115; Grand Bazaar 114; Sky Defender 110; Zabeel Champion 105; Global Storm 105
4.50 Parachute 101; Defined 99; Echo Point 98
Salisbury
2.05 Midnights Legacy 106; Opera Gift 106; Hasanabad 104; Gumball 104
Hamilton
2.40 The Navigator 113; Nicholas T 110; Great Esteem 108; Morisco 104; The Trader 104A few winners in the top 3 this weekend but generally quiet, though top 3 two rated at Salisbury filled first and second at 11/4 and 20/1. Day ended well with Parachute turning over the odds-on favourite.
Ratings for Monday and Tuesday below. Bank holidays very quiet these days though there’s a couple of decent jump races at Kempton, with the rider that heavy rain is forecast.
Ayr stage a rare May jump meeting on Tuesday, I can’t remember the last jump meeting that took place there as late as May. Fakenham have a decent card with plenty of runners, feature being a competitive contest for the Norfolk National.
MONDAY MAY 3
Kempton
3.00 Saint De Reve 143; Psychedelic Rock 134; One Forty Seven 132; Brother Tedd 124
4.10 Numitor 165; Topofthecotswolds 159; Leapaway 151; Peterborough 148
Windsor
3.06 River Dawn 108; Magnetised 96; Fantasy Believer 94; Uzincso 94TUESDAY MAY 4
Ayr
2.20 Court Dreaming 137; Bafana Blue 135; Bootlegger 134; Tanarpino 131
Fakenham
4.25 Flying Verse 140; Sundkindofking 133; Findusatgorcombe 132; Sacket 130; Robin Of Sherwood 130First day of Chester has two handicaps but both for 3yos and only one I felt I had enough form to rate. Decent jump racing handicaps at Newton Abbot and Kelso.
WEDNESDAY MAY 5
Newton Abbot
2.30 Fidux 160; Drumlee Sunset 158; Marracudja 151; Pink Eyed Pedro 148
3.05 Fagan 152; Doitforthevilalge 149; Highest Sun 142; Sir Ivan 140
3.35 Amarillo Sky 151; Chez Hans 150; Rockadenn 146; Heross Du Seuil 141
Kelso
3.25 Miss Amelia 146; Aint My Fault 145; Vengeur De Guye 145; Ballyvic Boru 143
Chester
3.45 Salsoul 112; Selected 108; Pivoting 107; Paws For Thought 106;
Kempton
7.10 Sanaadh 108; Ransom 102; Tiger Crusade 101; Zhui Feng 100Kool Moe Dee, drawn 12, has caught a dose of that dreaded Chester disease ‘widedrawitis’ and is a non-runner. The top rated SALSOUL has a class jump to make, but is a prominent runner drawn on the inside and worth a chance at 12/1.
A few near misses today plus Amarillo Sky won at 7/4, while Salsoul ended up at 66/1… and ran like it!
Tomorrow’s ratings concentrated on Chester.
THURSDAY MAY 6
Chester
1.45 Lord Riddiford 120; Count D’Orsay 114; Lihou 114; Corinthia Kinght 114
2.45 Melody Of Life 112; Buxted Too 109; Bakersboy 107; Bravado 102
3.45 Lucky’s Dream 114; Kryptos 101; The First King 101; Al Madhar 100
4.45 Love Is Golden 102; Classical Lord 102; Baileys Derbyday 99; Alpine Stroll 94I’ve always found Chester a difficult track to crack for winners, but Love Is Golden brightened a disappointing week at 15/2 this afternoon.
A busy Friday with a decent cross section of handicap action.
FRIDAY MAY 7
Market Rasen
2.00 Red Giant 134; Compadre 130; Larkbarrow Lad 129; As You Like 129
2.35 Ashfield Padd y150; Regarding Ruth 143; Glinger Flame 141; Barbados Blue 141
Ascot
1.20 Al Kout 102; Amazing Red 95; Ginistrelli 92; Chocolate Box 92
3.30 One Night Stand 110; Going Places 107; Stone Circle 107; Total Commitment 107; Jonah Jones 107
Chester
1.45 Grove Ferry 115; Revich 110; Kynren 108; Ejtilaab 107
2.45 Not So Sleepy 116; Who Dares Wins 114; Lucky Deal 113; Future Investment 113; Falcon Eight 112
3.45 Dark Pine 123; Lawn Ranger 115; Trais Fluors 111; Alternative Fact 111
4.20 Always Resolute 112; Byron Flyer 104; Cleonte 103; Grandmaster Flash 103; Frankenstella 103
Ripon
6.50 Intrinsic Bond 98; Bossipop 98; Royal Context 94; Get Boosting 94Dark Pine ‘swooped in the shadow of the post’ #clichewarning at 16/1 to give the top rated a nice profit for the Chester meeting. This followed Grove Ferry at 5/1 in the opener so very pleasing for a meeting I normally find a struggle. Results put single top rated on the cusp of the profit for the year.
SATURDAY MAY 8
Lingfield
4.00 Eton College 105; Love Dreams 100; Turn On The Charm 98
Haydock
1.25 Jarveys Plate 153; Wakea 152; Corrieben Reiver 149; Trincomalee 148; Canyon City 147
3.10 Copperless 157; Politicise 155; Celestial Force 154; Cormier 152; Camprond 151; Defining Battle 151
4.55 Hes No Trouble 153; Francky Du Berlais 150; Fortified Bay 148; Senior Citzen 147; Champagne Court 147
5.35 The King Of May 140; Solar Impulse 135; Go Long 134; Eamon Na Cnoic 133
Ascot
1.55 Dreamloper 101; Separate 99; Poet’s Lady 99; Conservatoire 99
3.40 Sunset Breeze 124; Chiefofchiefs 123; Acquitted 123; Karibana 121; Stone Soldier 121; Ropey Guest 120
4.15 Louganini 113; It’s Good To Laugh 108; Labeebb 105; Nuits St Georges 103; Aced It 102
Warwick
7.20 Garry Clermont 152; Xcitations 149; Rockadenn 146; Sammylou 142; Fantastic Lady 141SUNDAY MAY 9
Ludlow
2.50 Jen’s Boy 144; Back On The Lady 133; Sir Sholokhov 128
3.20 Calum Gilhooley 141; Glory And Fortune 139; Takeit Easy 137; Percy’s Word 137; Cotton End 137A good day yesterday with 4 top rated winners. Results in the last few days seem rather counter intuitive, a change in the weather bringing a change in going but the ratings are getting more winners. Copperless absolutely dotted up in the Swinton Hurdle and looks a Pattern performer in the making.
Three races to look at tomorrow and competitive contests at Ffos Las.
MONDAY MAY 10
Ffos Las
2.40 Gwencily Berbas 147; Minella Bobo 144; Looks Like Power 142; Aaron Lad 132
3.15 Poker Play 145; Everything For You 145; Bobhopeornohope 143; Morning Spirit 143; Voodoo Doll 140
Windsor
6.00 Fizzy Feet 97; Cream Of The Crop 92; Crazy Luck 86; Camachess 84Diddly-squat on Tuesday with Class 4 or lower across the board.
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