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Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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  • #1540411
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    Fizzy Feet transferred All-Weather form to the turf and won at 7/1. I’ve not made a distinction between the sets of form and, although there is sometimes a gap between AW and Turf marks, I’ve found that form carries over nicely more often that some would think (or wish!).

    Some typically fiendish handicaps to be cracked on the first day at York’s Spring Meeting tomorrow.

    WEDNESDAY MAY 12

    Newton Abbot
    2.25 Push The Tempo 143; Reserve Tank 126; Fix Sun 125

    York
    1.40 Strait Of Hormuz 114; Shandoz 113; Raymond Tusk 112; Labeebb 112; Throne Hall 110
    2.10 Embour 121; Brian The Snail 120; Soldier’s Minute 119; Shallow Hal 117; Zargun 114
    3.40 Rifleman 106; Sadiqaa 101; Captain Cooper 105; Wobwobwob 104; Elakazaam 103

    Rifleman has gone up 7lbs after veering left and ditching his rider at Sandown. Rather twisting the knife penalising a horse that didn’t even finish.

    Single top selections now a few points ahead for the year, and more so for those prepared to throw out a few ‘lulus’ and shop around for prices. Returns since I started this thread are not far on the debit side and I suspect if it was Timeform or the Racing Post they would be doing handsprings! Results have certainly surprised me.

    It looks to me as if the handicapper’s job is a bit like plate spinning (anybody remember the craze there was for that in the 70s?) in that in penalising some horses it lets in others and the whole handicapping ladder becomes disjointed. I suspect the reason my method has been successful is that in weighting some horses out of races others get weighted in.

    #1540512
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    THURSDAY MAY 13

    Perth
    2.30 Newtown Boy 141; Gortroe Joe 140; Saint Arvans 132; Weather Front 131; Kajaki 131
    York
    1.40 Mulzim 117; Glory Fighter 115; Muscika 111; Mondammej 111
    2.40 Ouzo 117; Matthew Flinders 114; Brunch 113; Johan 112; Shelir 112; Gloves Lynch 112
    4.50 Multellie 99; Raymond 95; Frankenstella 95; Sharp Suited 95; Sashenka 94

    #1540700
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    No top rated successes at York to date by Mulzim came second at 22/1. Second rated Raymond Tusk was a good second at 40/1 in the opening handicap of the meeting, running his usual honest race but beaten by an improver. Raymond, 2nd rated, won today’s closing race at 16/1.

    A set of competitive races from all points of the compass tomorrow.

    FRIDAY MAY 14

    Newmarket
    2.15 Tenbury Wells 113; End Result 112; Hotspur Harry 107; Alpine Mistral 106
    2.50 Amazing Red 108; Golden Rules 107; Smart Champion 107; A Star Above 107
    Newbury
    2.25 May Sonic 109; Typhoon Ten 109; Beyond Equal 109; Barbill 107
    York
    2.40 United Front 113; Fishable 112; Chichester 109; Blue Cap 108; Surrey Pride 108
    4.15 Boogie Time 111; Bedford Flyer 105; Night On Earth 104; Imperium Blue 103; Razor glass 103; Kool Moe Dee 103
    Aintree
    5.50 Hollywoodien 145; Isaac Wonder 143; Empire De Maulde 142; Captain Tom Cat 138
    6.25 Flowery 146; Sebastapol 144; Shetland Bus 144; Ask Paddington 141; Pileon 140; Big Bad Bear 140
    7.00 Fagan 157; Go Another One 152; Quarenta 147; Sir Ivan 145; Johnbb 145
    Hamilton
    7.15 Notation 105; Nicholas T 102; First Impression 102; Alright Sunshine 101; Glasses Up 101

    York handicaps don’t get any easier but FISHABLE caught the eye with an encouraging seasonal debut at Ripon, racing up with the pace and only being run out of it in the final furlong. The winner has franked the form since and Fishable’s in-form trainer presumably has had an eye on this race as a target.

    #1540804
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    Fishable reared at the start and then got back into but the gaps closed and he was eased. He’s decent, on a mark he can win off and worth keeping an eye on.

    Here are tomorrow’s ratings. A couple of the 3yo handicaps aren’t covered as there’s insufficient handicap form to work with.

    SATURDAY MAY 15

    Thirsk
    2.45 Queen’s Sargent 113; Azano 110; Alminoor 110; Young Fire 108
    3.55 Intrinsic Bond 99; Endowed 98; Cold Stare 93; Rathbone 93
    Newbury
    4.45 Plantadream 115; Fantasy Believer 108; Vintager 106; Repertoire 106
    Newmarket
    3.15 Jumby 116; Rebel At Dawn 114; Bickerstaffe 111; Tanfantic 111
    3.50 Pistoletto 108; Teston 106; Society Lion 105; Riot 105
    Uttoxeter
    6.20 Jarveys Plate 152; South Terrace 148; Lord Accord 147; Canyon City 147
    6.50 Madera Mist 133; Redbridge Gold 128; Floral Bouquet 124; Molly Carew 123
    Doncaster
    7.05 Roseabad 106; Invite 96; Galah 95; Coupe De Champagne 89

    #1541162
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    A sprinkling of winners from the top three today, best return being in the big sprint at Newmarket where top rated Jumby won at 11/4 with Rebel At Dawn third at 40/1.

    SUNDAY MAY 16

    Ripon
    3.35 Benadolid 104; Jean Baptiste 102; Memory Dream 101
    4.05 Credible 103; Lead Story 101; Rumaytham 97

    #1541226
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    I was a bit dubious of the figure for CREDIBLE at Ripon, but further investigation suggests this outsider of a now 5 runner field might be a decent bet. Checking the form of her Doncaster 8th behind Spright, which appeared a s-o-so effort, four of the top five finishers hare all significantly higher in the ratings now. The selection has won on good to soft so hopefully the cut in the ground shouldn’t be a problem. One thing to be taken on trust is fitness but she ran well first time up last season.

    #1541278
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    Credible wasn’t good enough on the day but she will find her level. The race went to the second top rated at 4/1. Benadalid was a top rated winner at 4/1, with second rated John Bapitiste following that one home.

    MONDAY MAY 17

    Redcar
    4.15 Wrenthorpe 102; Army Of India 96; Dark Shot 90; Savalas 89; Eeh Bah Gum 89
    Windsor
    7.20 Ivathenegine 108; Aplomb 99; Endowed 98; Punchbowl Flyer 95;
    8.20 Newbolt 106; Rains Of Castamere 99; Imperial Command 97; Enigmatic 97

    #1541388
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    TUESDAY MAY 18

    Huntingdon
    7.25 Good Boy Bobby 143; Valtor 143; Cotswold Way 139
    Hexham
    7.05 Valse Au Taillons 122; For Three 111; Frightened Rabbit 110

    #1541457
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    WEDNESDAY MAY 19

    Warwick
    2.55 Champagne City 139; Thebannerkingrebel 134; Blue Ribbon 133
    3.30 Thecraicisninety 152; Hollywoodien 147; Tikkinthebox 142
    Kempton
    7.35 Kepala 101; Oslo 97; Goldie Hawk 97; Utile 96

    #1541539
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    Nothing much stood out today after Valse Au Taillons just made class overcome a heavy weight at Hexham yesterday. Very quiet for the next couple of days.

    THURSDAY MAY 20
    Market Rasen
    2.55 Push The tempo 140; Commanche Red 139; When You’re Ready 139; Breaking Waves 137
    Chelmsford
    6.40 Morlaix 106; Modmin 103; Habit Rouge 102

    FRIDAY MAY 21
    Goodwood
    1.40 Ivatheengine 116; Starshiba 114; Dulas 108; Cold Stare 107

    #1541640
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    Not far short of a year compiling these ratings and I’ll summarise results and my thoughts early in June.

    A very busy day tomorrow with decent handicap action coming from many angles, the programme being a bit lop-sided as there was just the one all-age Class 2 handicap today. The weather is likely to mean a distinct softening of the ground, so I’ll post any major amendments to top ratings tomorrow if required.

    STOP PRESS – Second top rated Dulas was a comfortable winner of the handicap at Goodwood this afternoon (13/8) and looks an upwardly mobile sort to keep in mind for 7 furlong handicaps going forward. He’s taken a leap forward after being gelded over the winter and looks value for a good deal more than today’s half length margin.

    SATURDAY MAY 22

    Goodwood
    1.40 Prince Alex 112; Nuits St Georges 111; Just In Time 109; Stargazer 107
    2.50 Bowman 120; Twaasol 113; Soundslikethunder 112; Talbot 112
    4.00 Miss Mulligan 100; My Girl Maisie 94; Haseefah 90; Zoom Zoom Babe 89
    Haydock
    1.20 Oman 99; Solent Getaway 99; Classic Lord 99; Haveyoumissedme 98
    1.55 Ffion 107; Tom Collins 102; Sunset Breeze 101; Raatea 101; Molls Memory 100; Arafi 100
    2.25 Just Hubert 110; Postileo 109; Speedo Boy 109; Vindolanda 109
    3.00 Dark lion 106; Heights Of Abraham 106; Headingley 104; Teodolina 101; Nebulosa 101
    Newmarket
    2.00 Lethal Lunch 101; Blue De Vega 99; Additional 99; Benefit Street 96
    2.35 Calling The Wind 108; Midnights Legacy 105; Untold Story 102; Apparate 101
    3.40 Indianapolis 111; Zeeband 109; Almighwar 107; Global Storm 107; Lostwithiel 107
    4.50 Lucander 119; Man Of the night 109; Al Modhar 107; Lunar Jet 106
    York
    2.05 Repartee 116; Zip 111; Escobar 108; Lord Of The Lodge 105
    3.50 Makawah 111; Dave Dexter 110; Count D’Orsay 109; Justanotherbottle 109; Duke Of Firenze 108
    Stratford
    6.10 Forecast 142; Go Steady 137; The unit 130; Western Miller 123; Ready and Able 123
    6.40 Cleaver As A Fox 155; Ballyellis 155; Some Day Soon 151; Twin Star 151; Hooper 150
    7.10 Lock’s Corner 155; Duke Of Navan 142; Hatcher 135; Scardura 131; Miss Amelia 131
    8.10 Tea Time On Mars 137; Reve 133; Flying Verse 130; Bbold 128; Ballyegan Hero 128

    #1541836
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    Plenty of action today but, with Stratford to come, no top rated winners and even those in the top three were short priced. Not even as if the going was wrong as many of the top rated looked to be suited by conditions, but sometimes that’s just the way things go.

    A couple of races tomorrow, Qaysar really ought to make class tell in a very ordinary Class 2 event at Nottingham.

    SUNDAY MAY 23
    Nottingham
    3.30 Qaysar 117; Mustarrid 103; Brentford Hope 102; King Carney 102; Crownthorpe 102
    Fakenham
    4.10 Buster Thomas 129; Monty’s Award 124; Away For Slates 123; Diligent 122

    #1541974
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    Low key fare at the moment. Ratings managed a couple of top rated at Stratford yesterday but I’m holding back from betting for a short while.

    MONDAY MAY 24
    Ludlow
    3.20 Takeit Easy 135; Chasamax 134; Pagero 131; Inn The Bull 130

    Down to just the one race today with Windsor waterlogged.

    #1542083
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    Takeit Easy knocked home what turned into a penalty kick at Ludlow, winning at 9/5.

    Only one race in the next two days falling in the Class 3 or better category. Suits me as my O.U. Earth Science course comes to head this week with end of course project due, so that’s been occupying my time principally scrambling over rocks on the Fife coast.

    TUESDAY MAY 25
    Newcastle
    7.55 Thibaan 96; Sanaadh 95; Tinker Toy 93; Home Before Dusk 90

    WEDNESDAY MAY 26
    No qualifying races

    #1542261
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    The handicap programme has become very lop sided over the past week. We had SEVENTEEN handicaps in the Class 2/Class 3 range last Saturday since which there have been only 5 scheduled so far this week (one abandoned) and with only 2 tomorrow before a blank on Friday. I notice the Whitsun Cup, previously a Bank Holiday highlight has now been tucked away on an admittedly decent Sandown card tomorrow. Nice to see the Zetland Gold Cup is retained on Monday, though prize money is well down on that of a few years ago.

    It ramps up again over the weekend, Kelso opens up to Members on Sunday with 4 decent handicaps. That’s the last meeting before September but, having had a long list of ‘thou shalt nots’ from the course, I’ll give it a miss until most if not all restrictions are lifted.

    THURSDAY MAY 27

    Ripon
    3.35 Scottish Summit 106; Fishable 103; Benadalid 100; Alternative Fact 94
    Sandown
    8.00 Newbolt 111; Ransom 106; Imperial Command 104; Epic Endeavour 101

    Started these ratings on resumption of racing June 1st last year so coming up for a year keeping this thread on the go. I’ll analyse results over the past year and post thoughts middle of next week.

    #1542449
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    SATURDAY MAY 29
    Cartmel
    1.35 Lady Bowes 133; Calliope 129; Laskadine 126; Timetoroe 126
    3.55 Coup De Pinceau 154; Sebastapol 143; Ballyellis 143; Sirobbie 142; Ask Henry 142
    4.30 Look My Way 141; Blakeney Point 139; Constantine Bay 135; No Comment 132; Kajaki 132
    Haydock
    1.15 Mark Of Gold 106; Quickthorn 105; Doubling Dice 103; Labeebb101
    Beverley
    3.45 Cassy O 99; Muntadab 97; Broken Spear 95; Sibaaq 94
    Catterick
    2.30 Autumn Flight 102; Zim Baby 98; Dark Shot 98; Dave Dexter 95; Wahoo 95
    Chester
    2.40 Ejtilaab 108; Tadleel 107; Hayadh 107; Azano 106; King’s Knight 106
    3.50 Nakeeta 108; Buriram 101; Carlos Felix 100; Eastern Sheriff 99

    SUNDAY MAY 30
    Fontwell
    4.45 Baby King 134; Iconic Muddle 125; Master Burbidge 125; Carolines Charm 123
    Kelso
    2.32 Dolly Dancer 132; Louis Vac’ Pouch 131; Elmono 127; Haul Away 127
    3.07 Nordic Combined 155; Constancio 152; Iolani 144; Valentino Dancer 135
    4.17 First Lord De Cuet 148; Oski 140; Ashjan 120
    Uttoxeter
    3.57 Go Long 161; Topofthecotswolds 156; Falco Blitz 153; Barton Knoll 153; Havana Hermano 153; Fidux 152; Kauto The King 152

    #1542599
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    Managed to miss a race at Haydock today and there’s no real excuse this weekend as it’s a much lighter load than last week. anyway it’s a ‘throw a blanket over them’ sprint where most of the field is within 3 lengths even on recent form. Golden Apollo is interesting IF fit.

    Haydock 1.45
    Golden Apollo 105; Concierge 101; Bielsa 100; Capote’s Dream 100; True Mason 100; Air Raid 99; Bernardo O’Reilly 99; Cold Stare 99

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