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A disappointing weekend with top rated making no impact and not an awful lot from the top 3 either. one or two for those who consider it worth going down to fourth in the ratings but that’s clutching at straws.
Bank Holidays tend to be a bit low key these days but tomorrow’s racing isn’t bad. There’s a decent field for the Zetland Gold Cup even if the prize money is a bit stingy.
MONDAY MAY 31
Leicester
3.25 Uncle Jumbo 104; Ballyconneely Bay 102; Twilight Calls 100
Cartmel
3.00 Dawson City 144; Gangster 144; William Of Orange 136; Rock On Fruity 132
3.35 Lucky Flight 145; Tonto’s Spirit 137; Valence d’Aumont 134; Monsieur Co 129
4.10 Cracking Find 151; Royal Village 145; Fire Away 142; Templepark 141; Petite Power 141
5.20 Final Reminder 110; The Wicket Chicken 110; Oksana 110; Millie Of Mayo 103
Chelmsford
4.15 Royal Dynasty 110; Shimmering Daisy 102; Fighting Temeraire 102; Karibana 101; Lethal Lunch 100
Windsor
3.20 Just Glamorous 108; Many A Star 105; Newyorkstateofmind 102; Jawwaal 101; Spoof 101;
3.55 High Commissioner 114; Luigi Vampa 111; Fantasy Believer 105; Wait Forever 103; Alfred Boucher 103
Redcar
4.40 Glasses Up 118; Chichester 114; Faylaq 113; First Impression 112; Makram 112; Kaleidoscopic 111ANNUAL REVIEW
Not a bad finish to the month, with Dawson City winning at 10/1 backed up three other winners from the top three. No races within the appropriate category tomorrow.
That’s the completion of a year for this thread so time to take stock of results over the period 1st June 2020 to 31st May 2021.
Top rated (including joint) – Selections: 1616 Wins: 232 Returns: 1508.28
Single Top (If joint then take highest in the weights) – Selections: 1424 Wins: 208 Returns: 1342.73
Shortest Priced Of Top 3 – Selections: 1424 Wins: 323 Returns: 1372.52
Selections 5lbs or more clear – Selections: 403 Wins: 57 Returns: 368.56All Races (Top 3) – Races 1424 Wins 591
With my main source of winners by paddock observations cut off due to the restrictions on spectators at racing I had to look at some other way of sourcing selections. Reading the myriad of racing books that I have collected I dug out a photocopied booklet called ‘The Compleat Handicapper’ which I bought as part of a job lot in 1980. I’d used the method intermittently over the years and felt it had a sound basis of calculation, but never given it a proper run. Lockdown gave me a chance to try the method out over a sustained period. Essentially the value of form is measured by the strength of the winner (or second) in a horse’s previous race and how that horse is now rated. The measure horse would be the winner if we are rating a beaten horse or the second if we are rating the winner. The rated horse is moved up (or down) by the same amount that the winner was amended, then an adjustment made according to the distance beaten in the best of its last two races. If anybody is interested in the details of the method please drop me a PM and I can give a run down. As far as copyright is concerned I’ve done due diligence and can find no trace of original author publishers, so I don’t believe I am stepping on anyone’s toes and it’s unlikely many if any people are using this method.
The intention when I started this thread was to cover Class 4 and higher handicaps, but sheer weight of Class 4 contests meant it was much easier to cope with the level of action. I suspect there would be a possibility of finding winners in Class 6 to 4 events but clear selections would be fewer percentage wise as there is less strong progressive form to base ratings on. I might try ratings Scottish races through the grades once I get back on course but overall I will stick to the higher end contests.
Given that I am working with raw ratings I’m not overly disappointed that no selection category has shown a profit as the method takes no cognisance of race conditions.
Taking all top rated including joints returned a strike rate of 14.3%. Jump strike rate around the 17% mark, flat returns down at around 12.5%, testament to the bigger field sizes in flat handicaps and the rather odd year we had in 2020 may have had an influence. The method did remarkably well in the early weeks after return from Covid lockdown. Returns overall were 93.3% and it wouldn’t need too much shopping around for prices to get near to a break even situation, not bad for a raw cover all source. There are a few obvious duffer selections that don’t take too much perception to weed out, notably a 200/1 top rated selection at Cheltenham.
Refining the to prated to a single selection by taking the first on the card, essentially the highest weighted in most cases, improved strike rate marginally to 14.6% and returns to 94.2%. Results on this filter looked promising for a while but over the year didn’t make a huge difference.
Taking the shortest priced at SP of the top 3 rated gave and improvement on both strike rate and returns. Strike rate rose to 22.7% and returns improved to 96.4%. This signals a state of affairs where shopping for prices and eliminating a few races where no hopers may up the top 3 would give a fair chance of turning a marginal profit. The original method written in 1978 suggested rating only the top 6 from the Sporting Life betting forecast, but since I’m compiling ratings pretty much as soon as I get the declarations I didn’t go for this filter. Shortest priced results suggest this might improve matters and it could be worth checking results of only those top rated within the first 6 in the forecast or the top rated of those in forecast top 6. Certainly using ratings in conjunction with the market helps move nearer to a profit and to weed out the duffers.
I thought those rated 5lbs or more clear might prove profitable but this hasn’t been the case. Possibly some of the ‘obvious’ form lines are too obvious or misleading. Strike rate was 14.1%, returns 91.4% which suggests that avoiding these horses would be a help!
Final measure was percentage winners from the top 3. Over the year this gave a win percentage of 41.5%, with flat wins around 37% and jumps/all-weather wins at about 46%. Not sure this is significant other than to tell us that flat handicap fields in Class 3 or better tend to be slightly bigger on average than jumps and all-weather.
Overall I couldn’t see any obvious patterns in winners distance wise or between jumps and flat. My own betting over the year turned a profit of around 7% betting in about 75% of rated races and kicking out obvious weak selections. I was going really well over the winter but the wheels came adrift mid-April and into may so I have backed off betting for a while. I’ll restart in June but I am likely to be a bit more selective going forward. Strongest periods results wise were June to August last year and January to February this year, which is to expected as these are recognised as the times when form is most settled. On the down side November and March were awful, an Irish dominated Cheltenham being a real struggle as the UK handicapping team are hopelessly out of kilter with their Irish counterparts. Just occasionally the figures clocked this to advantage, as with Great White Shark in the Cesarewitch, but too often I was in the dark.
If nothing lese this has proved a nice little retirement project alongside my O.U. studies and I look forward to trying the method out at my local meetings. Time wise if each race has taken me an average 15 minutes to assess then I’ve spent 356 hours compiling ratings, plus a bit more recording and analysing results.
From the ‘Reads’ value on the thread it appears there are a few regulars, so if anybody has their own comments on this thread or any questions then I would be interested to hear from you either on this thread or via PM.
Rob
Three races covered tomorrow.
WEDNESDAY JUNE 2
Nottingham
2.35 Crimson Sand 100; Faustus 99; Cahors 94
Kempton
8.20 Almareekh 112; Taqareer 109; Galata Bridge 108;
Ripon
7.30 Commanche Falls 104; Flying Pursuit 102; Treacherous 102; Mark’s Choice 101Top rated turned a profit today with Commanche Falls obliging at 11/4 and progressing nicely up the handicap scale.
THURSDAY JUNE 3
Hamilton
2.45 Manigordo 105; Danzan 100; Mountain Brave 99; Call Me Ginger 99
Ffos Las
2.00 Alminar 138; Accordingtogino 131; Landsman 130; Fox Pro 127
Chelmsford
6.00 Ivatheengine 101; Araifjan 93; Corinthia Knight 92; Top Breeze 92
6.30 Great King 108; Inveigle 105; Final Voyage 101; Kaheall 99Nowhere near today and I’m thankful I held off having a bet.
FRIDAY JUNE 4
Epsom
2.35 Corazon Espinado 114; Irish Admiral 112; Mostawaa 110; Hortzadar 109
3.45 Blue Cup 110; Kaleidoscope 110; Data Protection 109; Sky Defender 108; You’re Hired 108; Water’s Edge 108
5.40 Count Otto 109; Shelir 105; Above 103; On A Session 101
Market Rasen
2.15 Mercian Prince 140; Paseo 128; Pawpaw 128; Thahab Ifraj 125
Goodwood
7.00 Bimble 89; Arion Fox 89; Fairy Dust 87; Lovely Breeze 87
Doncaster
7.23 Beat Le Bon 112; Scottish Summit 112; Ebury 111; Power Of Darkness 107Normally struggle with the Derby meeting but ratings got off to a fine start with Corazon Espinado(12/1) and Blue Cup(9/2) doing the business in the first two handicaps. The first mentioned is a standing dish at Epsom and a fair bit in hand from two out. First two in the top three rated at Market Rasen as well so a good day with one at Epsom and two evening races to go.
With the rain falling today there may be a few non-runners tomorrow so I’ll try to give enough in each race to allow for that. Dry up here in Scotland so not likely to any significant change in the going for an excellent Perth card on Sunday.
SATURDAY JUNE 5
Epsom
2.00 Greatgadain 111; King Frankel 109; King Zain 107; Chase The Dollar 103; Freak Out 102
3.45 Lord Riddiford 116; Copper Knight 112; Mondammej 111; Han Solo Berger 111; Get Boosting 111; Pettochside 110
5.15 Soto Sizzler 109; The Trader 108; Wait For The Lord 108; Group One Power 108; Frontispiece 108; Midnights Legacy 106
5.50 Ejtilaab 115; Kimifive 114; Danzeno 112; Aberama Gold 111; Desert Safari 111; Barbill 111; Tinto 111
Doncaster
3.05 Silver Shade 113; Alpine Stroll 112; Kondo Isami 111; Albert Camus 106
3.40 Oz legend 102; Basilicata 98; Blu Boy 96; Maiden Castle 90
Mussleburgh
2.50 London Palladium 102; Thunder Of Niagara 99; Yazaman 96; Captain Cooper 96
3.25 Annandale 105; Heights Of Abraham 101; Baileys Derbyday 95; Glen Again 91
Worcester
4.05 Canyon City 142; Umndeni 141; Jarveys Plate 140; Big Bad Bear 137SUNDAY JUNE 6
Goodwood
1.45 Fangorn 101; Perotto 100; Longlai 100; The Attorney 100; Sanaadh 97; The Kodi Kid 96
3.30 Lydford 105; Hiroshima 103; Clongowes 103; Dancing Harry 103; To Be Wild 99
Perth
2.35 Mint Gold 134; Isaac Wonder 132; Victory Echo 132; Pookie Pekan 132; Present Ranger 131; Collooney 130; Boy’s On Tour 130
4.20 Landofsmiles 159; Valtor 157; Potterman 153; El Presente 149; Tommy Rapper 149; Ain’t My Fault 149A few in the mix yesterday but needed Ejtilaab to bail top rated out of a blank day. Didn’t have a bet though and just the one catches my eye today. LYDFORD is lightly raced and steps up in trip at Goodwood in the 3.30. The sort I used to do well with when backing on the course in the south and in a race full of generally exposed types he looks the one to be on.
Lydford didn’t stay, so blew out on that one. Landofsmiles 9/2 was top rated in the Perth Gold Cup.
Normal low key start to the week.
MONDAY JUNE 7
Windsor
6.30 Benefit Street 97; Free Love 95; Thegreatestshowman 93; Centurion Song 93
Pontefract
6.45 Brasca 113; Restorer 108; Al Madhar 105
8.45 Metrosonfire 96; Tommy Tittlemouse 95; Excel Power 94TUESDAY JUNE 8
Salisbury
3.20 Anghaam 85; Mirage Mac 84; Drumquinna 80Racing Post site out of action this morning so had to use the BHA site which is fine but a few more screens to be accessed. Not as dififcult as it was to do these ratings before the internet, ploughing htrough the form and cross-referencing with either the Handicap Book or the Racing Calendar! Got there in the end and here are the ratings for an underwhelming set of handicaps for the next two days.
WEDNESDAY JUNE 9
Haydock
3.10 Satono Japan 104; Morisco 102; Pivoine 100; Highwaygrey 100
3.45 Dubawi Sands 110; Commonsensical 104; Orgetorix 97; Innse Gall* 97*Under the banner ‘Learn something new everyday’, I found out that Innse Gall is the Scots Gaelic name for the Outer Hebrides.
Thursday June 10
Nottingham
2.45 Dancinginthewoods 101; Muscika 100; Lethal Lunch 97; Typhoon Ten 97
Newbury
3.30 Itkaann 105; Naval Commander 100; Gin Palace 97
Haydock
7.30 Poet’s Dawn 104; Thibaan 101; Idoapologise 101; Young Fire 99; Caradoc 99ITKAANN, who clearly doesn’t stand too much racing, won on seasonal debut last season and remainded progressive. None of hte opponenets are very scary in Newbury’s 3.30 and it looks a penalty kick.
AMENDED RATINGS
THe Zetland Gold Cup runners have been re-assessed which has a significant effect on the ratings for the 3.10 at Haydock today. It was tight enough anyway and the reassessment puts Highwaygrey right up there.
Apologies for late update but the BHA update theie ratings to the Sunday but it takes a day or two for them to be published.
WEDNESDAY JUNE 9
Haydopck
3.10 Satuno Japan 104; Highwaygrey 104; Morisco 102; Pivoine 100; Chichester 100; Wait Forever 99Trying to get ahead of the game as I’m having to accompany my wife to Glasgow tomorrow ready for some serious dental surgery she is receiving on Saturday. I’ll be reliant on hotel wi-fi so thought it prudent to get my ratings up on here in advance. Only one race to worry about on Sunday and that will probably have a small field, so should keep up with the figures.
A so-so collection of handicaps over the weekend, though the feature 3yo sprint at York looks a toughie as ever.
MID WINSTER may well have a class advantage in what looks a weakly contested Class 2 fillies handicap at York tomorrow.FRIDAY JUNE 11
Sandown
3.20 Helian 107; Semser 106; Andaleep 105; Mascat 101
York
3.30 Brazen Belle 98; Noorban 97; Ballintoy Harbour 97; Mid Winster 96; Shepherds Way 96
4.35 True Blue Moon 102; Shawaamekh 101; Illusionist 100; Nigel Nott 99; Gabrial The Wire 98; Paxos 98; Zumurud 98
Goodwood
5.20 Amazing Red 98; Speedo Boy 97; C’est No Mour 96
Newton Abbot
7.10 Theo 162; Getaway Trump 159; Tikkinthebox 157
Aintree
6.50 Manse Rayder 137; Empire De Maulde 137; Reve 135; The Tourard Man 135
7.25 Burgundy Man 147; Nordic Combined 131; Get Back Get Back 131; Cotton End 131
7.55 Jaboticaba 141; Duke Of Navan 137; Ballyvic Boru 137; Miss Amelia 134
9.00 The Bees Knees 128; Outonpatrol 127; Ruthless Article 124; Presentandcounting 124SATURDAY JUNE 12
Sandown
1.05 Roman Dynasty 116; Talbot 115; Zoffarelli 109; Silent Film 107
2.50 King’s Knight 98; Repertoire 96; Trais Fluors 93; Dogged 93
3.25 Dejame Paso 112; Fountain Cross 107; Taravara 107; Toronado Grey 107
Hexham
2.55 Ask Paddington 140; Stranger Danger 136; Thebannerkingrebel 135; Look My Way 134
3.30 Jacks Last Hope 140; Ever So Much 128; Story Of Friends 127; Sunrise Ruby 127; Dancing Doug 127
Chester
1.40 Virginia Plane 104; Eye Of Heaven 100; Lost My Sock 99; Rebel At Dawn 94; Havagomecca 94
3.20 Side Shot 101; Oman 101; Glen Again 99; Love Is Golden 97
York
2.00 Byron Flyer 85; Carlos Felix 84; Nicholas T 83; Arctic Fox 81
2.35 Gifted Ruler 110; Baashir 109; Dazzling Don 108; Manigordo 103
3.40 First Folio 111; Barney’s Boy 111; Seven Brothers 110; Fighter Pilot 109; Blind Beggar 107;SUNDAY JUNE 13
Doncaster
3.15 Royal Birth 101; Caspian Prince 92; Mountain Peak 89; Jawwaal 88; Ginger Jam 88Royal Birth has a tendency to aticipate the start and whacked his head on the stalls last time. On balance of form he looks well weighted here if he can get that jump from the gate right. Note of caution is that he is entered in a lower class at Sandown on Saturday, so not guaranteed to appear here.
Hotel wi-fi played ball, but motorway traffic from Fife to Glasgow was mad and played on the nerves. Glasgow may still have a degree of covid restriction but traffic suggests people think ‘normality’ has returned. Peaceful time of lockdown wasn’t all bad…
A decent day yesterday with a decent sprinling of winners in the top 3 headlined by top rated Dejame Paso at 11/1.
Ploughing my way htrough Ascot’s Tuesday handicaps at the moment, but in the meantime here are rating for two races tomorrow.
MONDAY JUNE 14
Lingfield
1.35 Master The Stars 105; Passion And Glory 101; Great Esteem 94; Crimewave 94
Windsor
7.30 Concierge 101; Edraak 100; Han Solo Berger 100; Open Wide 93TUESDAY JUNE 15
Royal Ascot
5.00 Elysian Flame 111; Golden Rules 111; Solo Saxophone 110; Trumpet Man 108; Untold Story 108; Couer De Lion 108
6.10 Throne Hall 115; Cardano 115; On to Victory 112; Themaxwecan 112; Galata Bridge 111
Stratford
2.55 Storm Rising 144; Midnights’ Gift 139; Cubswin 137; Hooper 137The novelty of ploughing through huge fields does tend to wear off by the time I hit the Thursday cards. However, ratings are now compiled up to the end of Royal Ascot’s third day and are presented below. It might be worth noting that the Going stick reading fro the straight shows the going a little firmer on the stnads’ side than centre or far side. Stands rail could be favoured BUT there is rain forecast on Thursday just to complicate things.
WEDNESDAY JUNE 16
Royal Ascot
5.00 Real World 120; Pepperoni Pete 120; Layfayette 119; Fame And Acclaim 118; What’s The Story 116; Beat Le Bon 116; Magical Morning 116; Bugle Major 116
6.10 Quickstep Lady 109; Dreamloper 103; Angel Of The Glen 103; Ffion 103; Lights On 101; Stunning Beauty 101; Caspian Queen 101; Dalanijujo 101; Miss Mulligan 101
Chelmsford
7.23 Acquitted 106; Asad 105; Jumaira Bay 104; Margub 103; Amber Island 102
7.53 Bright Start 111; Dollar Bid 108; Group One Power 107; The Gill Brothers 105
Ripon
7.30 Excel Power 95; Kraken Power 89; Mitrosonfire 89THURSDAY JUNE 17
Royal Ascot
5.00 Tawleed 130; Laelaps 121; Star Of Orion 117; Grid 117; Royal Pleasure 117; Legal Attack 116; Quyintillus 115
5.35 Act Of Wisdom 133; Just Fine 129; San Martino 120; Too Friendly 114; Annandale(R) 111; Military Mission 110
6.10 Aldaary 129; On The Warpath 121; Lord Rapscallion 120; Riot 114; Tomfre 113; Danyah 113; Shelir 113
Ripon
2.50 Briardale 110; Data Protection 104; Baryshnikov 100; Benadalid 97
Chelmsford
2.10 Royal Dynasty 100; Shining Success 94; Lovely Breeze 90; Marly 85
3.20 Sky Commander 108; Path Of Thunder 100; Magnetised 100; Extrodinair 99
Ffos Las
7.50 Jersey Wonder 133; Asockastar 129; Geordie Des Champs 128; Jaunty Viking 127Early indications are that the draw is making a difference at Ascot, with the stands’ rail being besat though watering last night seems to have brought the far rail into it (judged on going stick readings). Can’t understnad jockeys coming down the middle which has been the slowest section. Complications for the next two days with rain forecast tonight then heavy rain all day Friday. Hopefully I’ve given enough each race to cover if non-runner, but I’ll amend tomorrow if need be.
A nice winner yesterday in Real World who looks a Group class horse on the evidence of a convincing win. A race which wnet some way along with others to suggesting the place to be is against either rail.
FRIDAY JUNE 18
Royal Ascot
5.00 Too many have no handicap form
5.35 Sam Cooke 115; Pirate King 115; Scarlet Dragon 114; Protected Guest(R) 114; Taqareer(R) 112; Zabeel Champion 111; Raymond Tusk 111; Jeremiah 111
6.10 Significantly 120; Cooperation 117; Noorban 108; Baba Reza 108; First Company 107; Rebel At Dawn 107; Charlie Fellowes 107; Hey Mr 107; Fantasy Master 107Market Rasen
3.25 Monty’s Award 148; Ballyhome 146; Getareason 142; Lord Bryan 140Redcar
2.40 Forest Falcon 93; Titan Rock 91; Ilza’eem 89; Six Strings 89;Newmarket
7.30 Bimble 91; Spirit Of Bermuda 89; Divine Magic 88; Areehaa 87Goodwood
6.45 Set Point 99; Rushmore 92; Leopardo 90; Saligo Bay 89
7.20 Potenza 107; Labeebb 101; Fame N Fortune 98; Strawberry Rock 96; Sword Beach 96
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