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Well done with Blue Kaskade today Soldier, just a bloody good stable to follow, and McDonald is a cracking jockey. Their Wide Awake will definitely be winning races this year, and The Dutchman could be interesting over hurdles.
That Harry The Viking win is one of my highlights of the last few months, long may they be underrated.
Tizzard has The Dutchman now- says made a hell of a noise before wind op so hopefully big improvement to be had.
No success on the punting front today but it did look like a tricky card and I kept it fairly small. Onwards to Hexham.
12:40 – 2m Maiden Hurdle
Trappy. I didn’t really like Calix Delafayette at the price despite the James Ewart ‘new assistant’ angle. His bumper form isn’t worth much at all. Bulkov has been highly tried since being bought out of a French claimer but it’s very hard to get a handle on his actual level of ability. Tetraites Style has a modest level of course form and Grand Morning gets a fairly positive mention in the Lucinda Russell stable tour. Four horses with completely different backgrounds and very hard to assess. Interesting to see how the market plays out but impossible to recommend any bet.
1.10 – 2m Maiden Hurdle
Handy Hollow only sets a modest standard. Will that be good enough? Lucinda Russell is buzzing about Prince Dundee in her stable tour but that one hasn’t exactly been missed overnight. Again, can’t really be too bullish – market will tell a story.
1.40 – 2m 4f Novices’ Hurdle
An uninspiring start to the card from a punting perspective with another unbettable race. The market seems to have it right on form.
2.10 – 3m C4 Novices’ Handicap ChaseThis is more like it. I took bet365’s initial 9/1 on Iskabeg Lane. Sue Smith won this race with her progressive I Just Know last year and this one looks like a classic Smith project. Only raced at 2m since joining her yard (has done quite well), this chunky chasing type makes his debut over fences at 3m in a handicap. He is related to Scottish National winner Paris Pike and shouldn’t fail for lack of stamina. Hopefully a classic Danny Cook ‘jumped well, made all’ job.
When I was pricing it up, I was expecting to end up betting Ronn The Conn. I thought that one was the most likely to be missed by the market – relatively modest form over hurdles but stayed strongly and has the physique for fences. Looks short enough though. Western Jo makes the market and will run a race, but he has nothing in hand after being whacked for his win two starts ago. The others look short enough too, although I suppose Cash Again is a slightly funny one for canny connections. He races keenly and must be a doubtful stayer, though.
2.40 – 2m C5 Handicap Hurdle
You need to be prepared to forgive plenty of bad runs but I really like Bandol a decent price here. Last year, he had Chakisto stone cold (who was in flying form at the time) when that one fell at the last. Bandol struggled to back up quickly next time, then fell, then presumably took some time to get over the experience. He has had two nice tune-up runs so far this season and finds himself on a generous hurdles mark. 20/1 pretty good.
3.10 – C5 3m Handicap Hurdle
I was really impressed with On A Promise last time. His performance comes out well on the numbers and there’s every reason to think he can defy a hike in the weights. A bet at 11/8.
3.40 – C5 3m Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase
I’m conflicted for two reasons here. I backed Alice’s Man last time and was delighted with such an easy win BUT this horse has been less than fluent in previous tries over fences. The blinkers are still on but will he pick his feet up?
I’m even more torn up because the one I see as the main danger (Haul Us In) is ridden by a jockey who I really don’t like. Blair Campbell still has a lot to learn and has dished out a few very poor rides lately. His mount looked like a dour stayer and ran really well on his comeback. This horse looks like the perfect type to thrive with cheekpieces on as he can go in snatches. I think I’ll take the 10/1 each-way and take my chances with the jock.
Well, two good results and two bad ones today. Really happy with On A Promise and the e/w returns from Bandol but not pleased with myself on the other two. I’m starting to think Cav has a point – backing first time over fences is a risky business. Haul Us In seems to need something more severe than cheekpieces.
Aintree for me tomorrow.
Gutted – wrote a long post and lost it.
Long story short: I’ve already backed Ballyhill and will probably back Russian Spy, On Tour and Forza Milan. Think Top Notch will beat Unowhatimeanharry too.
Tough day on Saturday. On Tour was the hero but Unowhatimeanharry, Louis Vac Pouch and Wimpole made it an ugly meeting for results on the whole.
I backed Crystal Lad today but his jumping didn’t stand the test.
I’m struggling to concentrate on anything today but I’m looking after Carlisle tomorrow. About to get a cup of coffee and get to work…
1.00 – 2m 1f Novices’ Hurdle
Plenty of ’embryonic chasers’ here – big weak horses who are struggling to see out their races. Cesar Collonges showed a bit at the track last time out and may strip fitter now, while Cyrano Star has also been spotted travelling well mid-race a few times. Shalaman is/was a good horse on the flat but usually runs on the all-weather nowadays and soft ground at Carlisle could be a major culture shock. Canny Style also has some fair flat form and guaranteed fitness. Still, I’d be half tempted to give the Don McCain horse a spin if you held me down and made me have a bet. Not usually a yard I like to bet but at least their horses rarely fail for fitness, jump well and drill out from the front. Bred to stay well.
1.30 – 2m 4f Novices’ Chase
He is up against a few good horses but I’m a big fan of Brio Conti and hope he is ready to put on a show here. I’m a big fan of this horse.
2.05 – C4 2m 1f Handicap Hurdle
Meadowcroft Boy on well at Kelso last time but his overall profile suggests he isn’t one to follow-up. The ground may also be a worry for him nowadays. Not many solid ones against him, although Mick The Poser seems to be outrunning his pedigree on the stamina front and looks one of the more progressive horses in the race. No great bet unless he has dazzling figures though.
2.35 – 2m Graduation Chase
Tricky. There is a very nice horse inside King’s Odyssey somewhere but he looks the least likely ‘trier’ on the main three with bigger targets surely ahead. Nuts Well gets in on favourable weight terms and ran well at the track last time but I’m drawn to another McCain horse (must be mad) in Derrintoher Yank. This looks like trademark McCain – he loves blowing a horse’s handicap mark to win a minor event. This horse’s gutsy ‘front the front’ style plays well in these affairs. I prefer him at the prices.
3.10 – C4 2m 4f Handicap Chase
Perhaps a trickier race than it looks with Argentix not fully proven on this surface despite the form of his British debut working out really well. Calivigny shaped really on seasonal return for a yard not known for big runs first time out, but he has a quirky side and can’t totally be trusted to back that up. Any money for Un Guets Apens would be really interesting if you (like me) are persisting with the Jimmy Ewart ‘new assistant’ angle.
3.40 – 2m Bumper
Possibly one of the hottest bumpers ever run at Carlisle. Kateson’s bumper win was in another strong contest (big fan of third Deyrann De Carjac) but she’ll need to be really good to defy the penalty. Just Bobby has twice been a big eyecatcher, Tekap is travelling a long way for this and ran the hottest non-festival bumper of last season, ‘Rocket Ronnie’ O’Leary has one (Shamilan) and Golden Whisky has a nice pedigree. An incredibly good race of its type for the course.
Well done with In Guet Apens,top tipping.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Thanks Chalky. I didn’t have much on at all but it was my only bet of the day, so at least I haven’t given any back…yet.
I’ve got two days off now and I’m out of the office doing a first aid course on Thursday, so it might be a while before I do a full write-up again. No doubt I’ll still have plenty of time to look at the cards so I’ll try to put up a few bets.
Kilinakin at Lingfield tomorrow has me tempted for a start. No rush though – it’s such an unfashionable yard that there might be bigger prices around tomorrow.
Thanks Chalky. I didn’t have much on at all but it was my only bet of the day, so at least I haven’t given any back…yet.
I’ve got two days off now and I’m out of the office doing a first aid course on Thursday, so it might be a while before I do a full write-up again. No doubt I’ll still have plenty of time to look at the cards so I’ll try to put up a few bets.
Kilinakin at Lingfield tomorrow has me tempted for a start. No rush though – it’s such an unfashionable yard that there might be bigger prices around tomorrow.
Hope you got on before Hugh Taylor followed you in and collapsed the price!
Grr! I got greedy, BB. Only had 1/2 a pt e/w at 12s, missed the boat there.
Some of his tips drift back on the show but it’s usually bad news when they do.
I’m off to Here East today – I get incredibly anxious when I have to find a new place. London is a scary city and I have a terrible sense of direction. I used to go through Fenchurch Street quite often and I’d get lost between there and Tower Hill every time! If you use those stations regularly, you’ll know they are about 100 feet apart, very well signposted and it’s almost impossible to lose your bearings. Not for me…
Hopefully I finish this thing early today. I’ll be looking at Dundalk tomorrow and that meeting always demands plenty of care and attention. Will try to get a post up here tonight.
I’m reading Bring Up The Bodies at the moment and absolutely consumed by it. Anyone else read that or Wolf Hall?
So much for an early finish – got away at 4 but got talked into a couple of pints with a couple of traders. I must be the biggest lightweight in the world – two pints almost knocks me over!
Dundalk race-by-race to come, plus I’ll be looking for bets at Cheltenham
I got blanked by Jake Humphrey today. :(
Yeah the Hilary Mantel books are really absorbing once you get used to working out which character she is talking about when there’s more than one of them in the room. The last book in the trilogy not going to be finished till 2019 apparently. I’ll have to re-read the other two before then.
Phillipa Gregory’s “The Other Boleyn Girl” is I suppose more lowbrow and a lot less broad in scope than the Mantel books but still isn’t your average fluffy chick lit or bodice ripper. Interesting take on the characters in Henry’s court and their interactions.
Who’s Jake Humphrey?
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