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Jake Humphrey presents the football on BT Sport. He has done plenty of NFL and F1 over the years too. I even remember him presenting CBBC! I went into the same building as him this morning, said ‘hi’ to him in the lift, no response. Fair comment on the Mantel books, Grassy. Often find myself confused unless she uses “he – Cromwell…”.
Oh well, better get stuck into Dundalk before I fall asleep.
5.30 – 5f Handicap
All the Dundalk 5f regulars in play here. A good sprint handicap, although Taexali’s presences forces quite a few of them out of the handicap. As always, a wide draw is a big negative here so the interesting trio of Danz Gift, Oneoveryou and My Good Brother have wait for another day. I fell for Alfredo Arcano last time and, while he was a little unlucky in running there, his hold-up style will make life tricky from stall 1 here. Nigg Bay could be a funky one for Johnny Levins, although the step down in trip is a strange move. The handicapper has been very kind to Togoville, Golden Pearl and Haqeeba lately. I think those three are the most interesting, with Golden Pearl perhaps the most interesting. Anything above 8/1 would get me for a small bet tomorrow.
6.00 – 1m Rated Race
Madly competitive. Robin Brysland is the new ‘Rebecca Curtis’ – a totally inept trainer who everyone is trying to buy from in the hopes of improving his horses. A couple of the guys on my team recently bought one of his and sent it to Gordon Elliott! Queensbrydge could be an utter blot on her first start for Ken Condon. She was always well-supported when trained by Brysland and could have even more to offer. Hard to offer up a bet on a race like this.
6.30 – 1m Handicap
No Approval and You Gotta Move have some appeal and Iconic Figure is a horse I have been following for a while, but I wonder if a good old fashioned Levins gamble could be on the go with Complicit. Now very well handicapped after messing about for ages on the wrong surface at the wrong trip.
7.00 – 1m Handicap
Another very competitive race, with the four most interesting horses correctly priced by the wallahs at large. Timia should win if his 10lb claimer gives an efficient ride. At a bigger price, I’m fairly interested in Full Shilling as an each-way option. His 10lb claimer is even less experienced but stall 2 helps and the horse is very well-treated on last year’s Dundalk form. He ran well under a senior jockey for 4th to Timia last time and gets a decent pull at the weights now.
7.30 – 6f 2yo Maiden
If you can run to 75, you’ll win. Slight preference for Snow Patch but probably won’t be betting.
8.00 – 1m 3f HandicapAnother good race. Plenty of water has gone under the bridge since Clear Skies was a good juvenile, so I think it’s best to focus on the others. Thunder Speed is bang solid with that strong 3yo handicap form and looks a better choice.
8.30 – 1m 4f Maiden
The horses with flat experience set a very poor standard, so I’ll be having a very small play on Dasmyhoss. This good bumper performer has been struggling to stay 2m+ over jumps and might start afresh in this sphere.
9.00 – 1m 4f Handicap
Market looks right with Tenth Amendment top of the list. No great bets available imo.
No post yesterday, was on the late shift and didn’t have a meeting of my own. I did a bit of monkeying around on the show through the afternoon and came out a little ahead. Frustrated with Dundalk the other day – beat quite a lot of SPs and came close with Complicit but couldn’t get a winner on the board.
I’m on Punchestown duty today, although I’ve left it pretty late to put up a preview.
12:00 – Risk Of Thunder Chase (Banks Course)
The market looks right with class act Josies Orders understandably short after a good hurdles comeback and the decent Sizing Coal second choice. Sizing Coal beat a few ‘names’ in a PTP recently (Sambremont and Yes Tom) to show he is in good heart.
12:30 – 2m 0-140 Handicap Hurdle
A decent race. I think Oscars Den has to be opposed given his flaky profile – he won quite well last time but history suggests he is no sure thing to run to that level now. I respect Sanibel Island from a fair mark, but I think She’s A Star is the best bet at the prices. She has been running herself into form on the flat recently and remains unexposed at two miles over hurdles. Noel Meade is in good form right now. Will be interesting to feel out the market vibes with Yaha Fizz.
1.05 – 2m G2 Novices’ Chase
A trappy contest. Tombstone is not a horse I have ever warmed to at all. Though Davy Russell has picked him over Brelade and Calino D’Airy, I’m still not totally sold. No bets but I’m edging slightly towards Brelade – hopefully he can frank the form of Footpad and Petit Mouchoir. If he jumps two-out alongside Tombstone, I think he’ll do it.
1.40 – 2m 7f G2 Novices’ Chase
I’ve already backed Presenting Percy for the RSA. I won’t be too downhearted if he gets beaten here given that he wants better ground ideally. Shattered Love certainly a big player.
2.15 – G1 Morgiana Hurdle
Personally I think you lose quite a lot long-term if you back the long-absent ‘class horse’ off a long break against the decent fit horses. Faugheen has been pretty strong overnight but I’ve backed Campeador and Swamp Fox.
2.50 – 3m Handicap Hurdle
All depends on whether Mullins has worked his magic on long-absent switcher Steel Wave.
3.25 – 2m 6f Maiden Hurdle
Stooshie represents the Red Jack form but looks short enough to me. I can’t exactly nominate one of the others in particular but there are plenty of stoutly-bred young horses stepping way up in trip after showing flashes of ability.
3.55 – 2m Bumper
Rapid Escape brings a reputation that exceeds his bare form. Hard to suggest any bets but I think it’ll SP bigger than the current price.
I know you’re a big fan as well, did you see Waiting Patiently got an entry for The John Durkan?
Good to see Bobby. Think he’s the real deal. Really encouraged that he was able to win first time out, really bucked the trend of most Jefferson horses this season.
I’ve had a couple of days off, hence the lack of long posts here. I had a couple of bets at Wolves on Monday but didn’t think to put them up.
We’re overstaffed tomorrow so I’m looking at the Warwick hurdles and bumper only.
12:35 – 2m Novices’ Hurdle
The market has this pretty right with Harefield preferred to Santo De Lune. Sadly looks like a ‘solved’ race right now, can’t suggest a juicy bet.
1.40 – 2m 5f Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Probably can’t bet it given that this could be a third run for a mark but I do slightly prefer Ginge De Sophia to Molly The Dolly at the prices. Hurdled more sharply in a good race second time and ran to a good level. Molly The Dolly’s form looks more dubious but might be trying harder.
2.45 – C4 2m 3f Handicap Hurdle
There is a strong pace bias at Warwick, so it will take a good one to beat lovable but exposed front-runner Danceintothelight.
A couple of these are in my tracker. One of those is Lady Karina: a daughter of Lady Rebecca with bottomless stamina. She got outpaced before running on to win (admittedly strong form) in desperate ground at Hereford when last seen. It’s hard to play that kind of style at this track. My personal theory with Groundunderrepair is that 3m and good ground will bring out the best in him, but he did shape well under this 10lb claimer at Wincanton last time. That form is nothing special, though and In The Bull has been running to a solid level in the meantime. I suppose I’d lean towards the Greatrex horse but there isn’t much value in the overnight prices.
I might even end up betting Danceintothelight if the prices get too dismissive (double figures) in the morning. He’s exposed but has the right style for the track and there are enough negs about the rivals to tempt me to into a bet.
3.50 – 1m 6f Junior BumperIt’s tough to outrun the double penalty in bumpers, especially moving from rubbish northern ones down to a decent southern one. Inclined to think this will be tough for Cuckoo’s Calling, although the market will guide with Wilde Spirit, Buildmeupbuttercup and Aimee De Sivola.
A mixed day of it today – didn’t bet any of those but feel like I got two races right and two races wrong there. I was really impressed with Lady Karina. She seems to have progressed a long way from last season and is bound to do even better next time. Molly The Dolly certainly justified the market support too.
Tomorrow I’m looking after Meydan. I have a good grasp on the card but it wouldn’t be right for me to put up any thoughts here. I’ve been steered by our Dubai judge and I don’t want to queer his action at all.
I also took a look at two of the good races at Newcastle. I’d say Andok 14/1 is the best bet on the card right now.
Each-way gains there but I’m heartbroken about Andok getting touched off today, just didn’t quite get there. That was one of the biggest bets I’ve ever had – would’ve been my biggest ever win.
Our Dubai expert gave me such a good rundown of the Meydan card today. He put me on three good priced winners and a couple of unlucky losers. I’d love to do some sort of podcast featuring our compiling team. Perhaps we wouldn’t be able to preview races and discuss markets, but I’ve turned my punting inside out since I’ve been around these guys. It’s so healthy to be around people who challenge your approaches and ways of thinking. I think that is why I like this forum – sometimes I’ll post in Big Races with some wonky reasoning for or against a horse and GT/Stevecaution or one of you will pick me apart. I quite like that feeling, although the inevitable pull of ego means that the big challenge comes in letting the outside opinions break through!
Catterick for me tomorrow. Post on the way.
12:20 – C4 2m 4f Conditional Jocks Handicap Hurdle
Quite a weak race for the grade. Bocasien Desbois ran huge on the figures last time and should probably win if able to back that up…but he does have the anchor of Blair Campbell and isn’t the most consistent. To be honest, I priced this up and made him 3/1. He’s 3/1 – can’t really suggest a bet unless it drifts!
12:50 – C5 2m 4f Handicap Chase
Consistency isn’t the strong point for any of these. I wouldn’t be steaming into 10/11 Oak Vintage, though I can’t pin my colours to any of the others either.
1.20 – 2m 4f Novices’ Hurdle
Quite sad about this race. From a selfish point of view, I thought there was a good chance that lazy compilers might ‘miss’ Espoir De Teilee and bottle up Blair Cove. Nope. 4/6 Espoir.
1.50 – C3 3m 2f Handicap Chase
This is my kind of race, but again I think the market is pretty solid here. Delusionsofgrandeur the most likely winner but short enough. I think Milansbar is sure to be the ‘wise guy’ horse here – down in the weights with Neil King going much better this season, but this horse does suffer from azoturia and careers usually only go one way when that sets in.
2.25 – 2m Novices’ Hurdle
Now here’s a bet. Parthenius won a muddling affair last time but got a lukewarm write-up in the Skelton stable tour and failed to achieve much on the clock. In contrast, the in-form Don McCain was quite positive in his write-up about Rockalzaro. He blamed himself for poor tactics last time and promised to make more use of his horse next time. From the front and getting weight from the Skelton horse, I like Rockalzaro here.
3.00 – 2m 4f Novices’ ChaseYou can’t take Alzammaar’s close call against Brio Conti literally at all and he looks chronically short here. Prefer Divine Spear at the prices but I’ve told myself not to back chasing newbies for a while.
3.35 – 2m Bumper
Keith Dalgleish is mopping up the bumpers like a madman this season. I’m To Blame has quite a nice pedigree and would be the nominal pickout.
Chopped it off big time at Catterick today – 2 bets, 2 winners. Wish I’d backed Divine Spear and had some sort of multi with Espoir too – could’ve been golden!
I’ve looked at a few odds and ends for tomorrow. I liked Robinsfirth but I was too slow to get the 5/1 so I left that alone. May bet Traffic Fluide in the Betfair Chase and possibly Double Shuffle in the 1965 Chase but just speculative goes on those.
I also fancy a small e/w on Bint Dandy at Lingfield. I’ll have a quiet evening tonight and might look at more races, so maybe a few more bets to come.
If you’ve got a 365 account, I’d strongly suggest taking the 8/1 Ubaltique and 3/1 Braw Angus at Exeter tomorrow.
Sitting here whiling away the time on the late shift so might as well put up my Exeter thoughts now.
12:55 – C5 2m 6f Handicap Hurdle
A few tracker horses in play here, but I’m very sad to see that the market hasn’t missed We’ll Be There. He is very strong on the numbers and the Kittow team are good at getting them fit after a break.
1.25 – C4 3m Handicap Hurdle
I really think Braw Angus is a good thing here. He shaped nicely on comeback and towers over many of these on the figures. Mister Drifter has plenty of temperament and looks like one to avoid. This feels ‘preppy’ for Crown Hill. Quinto did better in a first-time tongue-tie last time but his inconsistent profile is a worry. Eddy is up in the weights, All Kings needs to prove himself a reformed character and Abbeygrey seems to have been soured by that brutal race he won at Newton Abbot a few starts ago. Braw Angus for me.
1.55 – C3 3m Handicap Chase
A decent race. Nobody is taking any chances with You Say What, who was the subject of an old-fashioned Pipe gamble before running out of steam on comeback. That yard is going better now and he remains well-treated on old form. I haven’t bet yet but 11/1 feels quite dismissive about Lord Ballim, who put in some massive performances on the numbers last season and remains unexposed when faced with a proper test of stamina.
2.25 – 3m Novices’ Chase
Market likely to tell the story here. Was that just a blip for Brelan D’As on comeback? Will Impulsive Star be trying? Is Flintham on a going day? You’d be guessing.
2.55 – C3 2m 2f Handicap Chase
Not a great race for the grade. I’ve had success with McCain horses recently and think Ubaltique is bang solid for that team here. He signed off last season out of form and usually needs a run or two to put him straight, but his comeback was actually quite encouraging. Expected to come on for that, a return to his peak form would be good enough. I took a shine to Un Prophete at the end of last season but he comes here off a fall (booked for third at best at the time) and looks skinny enough overnight. Crafty Roberto is in-form but is something like 0-20 over fences and lacks the class of a few of these. Keep Moving is priced on his stable more than actual form, Turban is one to swerve in general nowadays and Native Robin would only be interesting if attracting market support. Up the Donald!
3.25 – 2m Juvenile Hurdle
One of the worst races of its type you’ll ever see. Mercenaire is 11/10 on the strength of being bought from France for 30,000 and representing a yard that does well with juveniles. Bleugh – no bet.
3.55 – C4 2m Handicap HurdleAnother tricky race with juvenile Padleyourowncanoe muddying the water – hard to assess this fibresand performer on second start for Colin Tizzard. I quite like Thundering Home. He needs soft ground nowadays and should be much better a month on from his three quickfire runs in October. He’s down to his last winning mark and likes these conditions. 8/1 a bit dismissive, especially from the e/w point of view.
Not a fun day at all today but you’re always going to hit a few bumps in the road.
I looked at a few Ludlow races this afternoon but missed the boat on the one I was most interested in – would’ve taken the early price on Good Man Vinnie if I’d been more alert. I think Mr Mulliner could be interesting for the same trainer as well.
No posts in the last couple of days – was dealing with the Annamix bombshell on the late shift on Monday and piloting Deauville today. There was one good Listed race at Deauville but I didn’t feel strongly enough to bet. It’s Wolverhampton for me tomorrow, then three days off. As Dr. Chivers said in another thread, it’s quite a good day for the sand lovers.
12:15 – 7f Maiden
A trappy little contest with a few complicating factors in play. De Little Engine and Gustavo Fring haven’t been seen for a while and Delilah Park gets a trainer upgrade from Phil McBride to Clive Cox. I’m inclined to look past the first two in favour of something with confirmed fitness. Meanwhile Delilah Park trails most of these on the figures and will need to improve quite a bit for the Cox caresses.
That cuts it down to Secret Return and Colourful Career. Secret Return nearly pulled off a huge shock when 2nd to a 4/9 fav at 100/1 on racecourse debut. That form looks dubious with many (including the winner) underperforming, although Luke Morris is an upgrade from Rhian Ingram here. Still, I prefer Colourful Career – whose three starts have been fairly promising and come out well on the figures. Particularly his Chelmsford run, which saw him travelling nicely mid-race before the lack of race fitness took over. I think he’ll outrun his recent Windsor run given his dirt/AW pedigree.
Now I look at the prices for the first time and see 7/4. That probably is worth a small go though nothing too bullish (I’d say 6/4 is more like it) – it’ll tighten up tomorrow if the market vibes about a couple of those mentioned aren’t good.
12:45 – C6 7f Nursery
Oh boy, this isn’t going to be easy. There is one piece of form (Wolverhampton run behind Amazing Alice) that suggests Expelled could be ahead of his mark, although he has been patchy in the meantime. Zapateado showed improved form to get off the mark last time with the new trip and hold-up tactics helping. Still, that one is lumbered with stall 11 and a hefty rise in the weights here and figures suggest more is required. Fire Orchid’s latest fourth is fruity form (slow pace, 114% finishing speed, lousy figures) but is not completely ruled out just because Richard Hannon has been so successful in nurseries this year. Where’s Jeff ran well in contrasting conditions at Musselburgh but, again, the form feels a bit dubious given the way the race was run. He has never been campaigned like a horse held in any sort of regard – started off in a seller and ridden by inexperienced jockeys for the most part. I can’t really make a case for any of the others.
I’d chance Expelled at the prices if you made me bet – he’s the only one with any single reliable piece of form in the book to put him ahead of his mark. Happy to leave it and let it win unbacked though.
1.15 – 1m 1 1/2f Fillies’ Novice Stakes
Some lovely pedigrees on show here with Love Is Enough closely related to Kite Wood, Monteja a half-sister to Nezwaah, Marie Toulouse out of a Guineas winner and Heeyaam having good staying blood too. West Palm Beach (penalised) is a solid horse in her own right and will be a good marker for the form. Interesting to follow the market and see how they get on.
1.45 – 1m 1 1/2f Fillies’ Novice Stakes
The weaker of the two divisions on paper, both in terms of the horses with experience and the pedigrees of the newbies. Come With Me looks woefully short at 5/4 in places and I wouldn’t be knocking you over for the 2/1 Ghanimah either. Happy to sit this one out and watch the market.
2.20 – C2 1m 1f Handicap
A good race. I like Seniority a lot but I don’t make it as short at 9/4. Sure, this is the sexy 3yo in the race and the latest run is strong form but this is a very headstrong horse and there is plenty of risk involved too. Pactolus and Rainbow Rebel are fully exposed now. Good old Bronze Angel would have a massive chance if able to break on terms but he has a few quirks at the start nowadays and will be a test for Tyler Saunders around here. To be honest, 9/1 was my price so I can’t bet it but I did like Mythical Madness. He’ll get the pace he needs and remains well-handicapped. I think 9/1 is a bit dismissive about Roll On Rory (feels like it’ll be bigger tomorrow though) and he’s probably the bet. He was well punted before coming back to winning form last time and is the type of horse who tends to get ‘in the groove’ once he gets his head in front. He’ll probably be the small e/w play. Primero (a £110,000 purchase from France for David O’Meara) is the potential fly in the ointment if money arrives.
2.50 – C3 1m 4f Handicap
Another good race. Star Story is a well-handicapped horse and wasn’t seen to anything like maximum effect in a 3-runner contest last time out. This should suit much better. Island Brave only won in his turn last time after a stack of defeats off similar marks. Spinning Melody won bravely on debut and ran to a fair level – more is needed to defy a mark of 80 but it’s not out of the question.
I think you might get overly dismissive prices on Throckley and Take Two tomorrow. Conor Dore is a damn good trainer (one of the best in the country imo, controversial I know!) and he improved Throckley to win at Southwell on his first start for the yard. This is a completely different test but I wouldn’t rule him out of calculations. Take Two is also interesting with a good pace to run at, especially with Joe Fanning taking over from his hapless regular rider here.
I’ll probably keep it to small stakes and back Star Story, Take Two and Throckley in some combo of win and e/ws. Maybe I’ll also throw in a VTC style tricast too.
3.25 – C6 5f Handicap
Plenty of consistent low-grade grinders here but there are a couple with some potential to be well ahead of their marks. One is obviously Krystallite, who won from a similar mark only a few months ago and shaped quite well last time. The other is Absolutely Awesome, who I predict will either SP 16/1 and bet well beaten or go off a tight 7/2 and win snugly. His Wolverhampton win and Chelmsford third are both off the charts on the speed figures in the context of this race and you can forgive his next two starts (not right after break, didn’t handle Southwell). Worth a pop at 9/1 I’d say.
3.55 – C6 Nursery Handicap
Another ropey old contest. Form and figures suggest the three to focus on are Skyva, Arty But Poor and Lady Lintera. Skyva has the most progressive profile and is probably worth a small bet at the prices.
Plenty of fun today at Wolves. Not a great day on the personal punting but Skyva saved the day in the last and paid for the losers. I’ll be out of the game for three days now so might as well put up a review as there were all sorts of eyecatchers – one in the eye for the all-weather haters.
12:15 – 1st Delilah Park, 2nd Gustavo Fring, 3rd Secret Return
A funny market here with Delilah Park strong all morning but drifting out to a surprising SP of 6/1. Beaten fav Colourful Career was as big as 10/3 25 mins before post time but was set off 13/8. This isn’t likely to be strong form with long-absent Gustavo Fring blowing up and Colourful Career pulling away his chances with no cover on the outside.
12:45 – 1st Diamond Pursuit, 2nd Fire Orchid, 3rd Expelled
A real plunge developed on my pick Expelled, who was sent off a tight 6/4 after being 9/2 at the time of my post. He travelled well just behind the pace but was caught flat-footed when Fire Orchid dashed for home. The runner-up is possibly the moral winner given all the early work she had to do from the outside draw. The race was run to suit a closer and Diamond Pursuit was well-positioned as things panned out. Philamundo made some nice late gains but was probably flattered by coming from behind off a decent pace.
1.15 – 1st West Palm Beach, 2nd Heeyaam, 3rd Yamuna River
This nursery lost much of its interest when the well-backed and well-bred Monteja got upset in the stalls and was withdrawn. That left the experienced West Palm Beach to defy her penalty at the expense of Botti newcomer Heeyaam. The winner is evidently an 85+ performer in the making but I think the runner-up is one to note for the future – she is related to nice stayer Kite Wood and Park Hill winner Madame Dubois so there must be more to come with time and distance. Also worth an upgrade since she was untouched in the market today.
1.45 – 1st Ghanimah, 2nd Spring Waterfall, 3rd Physical Power
Much weaker than the first division. The winner is already fairly well exposed. Third Physical Power outran her odds but must have blown any prospect of getting a nice handicap mark now. Hollie Doyle possibly in for a rollicking from connections.
2.20 – 1st Pactolus, 2nd Mount Tahan, 3rd Battle Of Marathon
A bit of a strange result, although it was admittedly a deserved win for Pactolus. He has been running well in defeat in similar races while edging up the handicap. Mount Tahan (gambled from a high of 33/1 into an SP of 9/1) couldn’t quite get there and showed surprising stamina to rattle home from off the pace up in trip despite looking something of a short runner at 7f in previous starts. Third Battle Of Marathon also revived after a string of poor runs but is no sure thing to replicate the form next time.
Disappointments included the very popular fav Seniority (travelled well, found nothing) and Bronze Angel (dead in the market all day and ran poorly despite the race being run to suit). Four of the first five came from off the pace so perhaps prominent racer Kyllachy Gala is worth an upgrade. Primero shaped well on first start for David O’Meara.
2.50 – 1st Island Brave, 2nd Star Story, 3rd Spinning Melody
Another well-run contest with Island Brave (stays further) keeping on from the back under a good ride from PJ McDonald. Star Story stayed on well and looks ready for a step-up in trip.
3.25 – 1st Hamish Mcgonagain, 2nd Alaskan Bay, 3rd Our Kid
Another good ride here with Kieran Shoemark sitting off the pace and delivering the winner with a well-timed run. The winner was formerly with Jeremy Gask, whose horses are generally improving for their new yards. Fourth Krystallite is the one to talk out of the race. He is well-handicapped now and did well to hold fourth after doing too much early work to get to the lead from a wide draw. Will go well if able to get a good draw next time.
3.55 – 1st Skyva, 2nd Alaskan Bay, 3rd Our Kid
Happy to finish with a winner as Skyva just clung on under a nicely finessed ride from Ben Robinson. The pace was decent and the young rider did well to hold on to the horse for as long as he could. The form is only modest.
I’ve had a busy few days away from the racing. In fact, I’ve only had one bet in that time – joining in the communal Big Races ei ei on Willoughby Court. Jonesing to get back into it with Carlisle tomorrow.
The Northern Lights series has been a dismal failure and Carlisle must be embarrassed to have so many dreadful C2 races with decent prize money going to scrubbers. I’ll have a few small stakes bets.
12:20 – 2m 4f Novices’ HurdleThe first impression after Go Go Lucas’ win on hurdling debut was that he had only achieved poor form, but direct victim Bulkov has since taken the scalp of Big Time Dancer to add some meat to it. With Uncle Alastair and Planet Nine’s bumper form suddenly looking quite poor, I’m looking for alternatives to that pair. Sectionals suggest Blunder Buss was poorly-placed last time so perhaps Go Go Lucas is the answer with conditions in his favour again. Simon West suggested he was very surprised to win at Hexham as the horse had missed a week of work at a crucial time, so he may well be up to defying the penalty. Any money for Donald McCain’s winning pointer Knockrobin would be interesting.
12:50 – C2 2m 4f Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
The final of an obscure northern series and one of the worst C2 races you’ll see on ratings. I think this is between the top pair Wide Awake and Paper Roses, who were both eyecatching last time and have unfinished business on their current handicap marks. Prices look about right though – no bet since neither one is totally straightforward.
1.20 – Listed 2m 4f Mares’ Chase
A strange race for the track – you wouldn’t think Carlisle would be the sort of progressive open-minded track to have this sort of thing. Lastbutnotleast is one of my main horses to follow this season. I have no idea how ready she’ll be for this but it would give me a lot of pleasure if she could dick the Mullins mare and Tacenda here.
1.55 – C2 2m 1f Handicap Hurdle
Another series final and another poor advert for northern racing. Meadowcroft Boy earned a decent sectional upgrade when sent for home far too soon here last time out and is a decent starting point. Bahrikate was flattered to get so close on that occasion. Monfass is an interesting one and usually gambled but does have physical problems and can’t be 100% trusted to deliver. Long story short, I agree with the market about Meadowcroft Boy being the most likely winner, although 11/4 doesn’t scream value.
2.25 – C2 3m Handicap Chase
More dross that might struggle to earn C4 status down south. Purcell’s Bridge was mildly eyecatching last time and remains on a fair mark while dour stayer Finaghy Ayr has all the right assets for this track and should go very close with a run under his belt. They’re my two against the field.
3.00 – C2 2m Handicap Hurdle
Competitive stuff although another poor race for the grade. With no outstanding form contenders it might be worth giving a chance to Hartforth. He won a better race first time up in similar conditions last season and has a decent record when fresh.
3.30 – C2 2m 4f Handicap Chase
Derek Fox seemingly prefers Forest Des Aigles to Voyage A New York, but I’m not convinced that his mount’s latest win is great form. Again you’re scratching around for alternatives. Perhaps Oscar O’scar with Micky Hammond finding form? I’m willing to take a chance on Calivigny, though. I opposed the horse last time because he rarely strings two good runs together, BUT he has responded to headgear switches a few times in his career so far. A first-time visor might just spark him.
Four losers and an 11/1 winner today. I’ll certainly take that. I doubt it was a good day for the firm (especially at my meeting) with a drifting paper fav winning the opener and the well-backed jolly doing the business in the last too. Slightly annoyed with myself for not having a loyalty bet on Monfass given all the other speculative darts I was throwing.
Small fields at Fakenham for me tomorrow. I won’t have many meetings in the next week as I’m doing the late stint on Tuesday, Lingfield Wednesday, Meydan Thursday and off for the rest of the week.
1.00 – C4 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
A weak race for the grade with many of these regular features in sellers. Presumably Elysian Prince will be a non-runner after running at Leicester today. I think this is a decent betting race with Mullaghboy’s price probably having more to do with connections (trained by Olly Murphy, ridden by Richard Johnson) than bare form. He is a horse with noted breathing problems who scrambled home in an even worse race last time. There isn’t anything sexy about Astrum but he does have a very good attitude, represents a yard in good form and has a decent strike rate for a horse of his ability. You can count on him to run a race for you, whereas I wouldn’t trust any of the others on that front.
1.30 – C4 2m 5f Handicap Chase
Also a decent betting race. Foundation Man, Cody Wyoming and Postbridge are all a bit ‘dead’ and would need to suddenly spring back to form after spells in the doldrums. Meanwhile, That’s The Deal, Little Windmill and D’nailor are all ‘must lead’ front-running types who can sulk if they don’t get their own way. That rather leaves you with Newberry New. No doubt this horse will never repeat the G3-winning juvenile hurdles form shown for Jessie Harrington, but this is the most realistic chance the horse has had so far for the new yard. He’s fit from a comeback run and is the excellent Danny Cook’s only ride on the card.
2.00 – 2m 4f Novices’ Hurdle
Classic Ben‘s bumper form is much better than Ballinslea Bridge’s. 11/10 more than fair on the Edmunds horse.
2.30 – C5 3m Handicap Hurdle
A good bit of placement from Olly Murphy. Saucysioux should win if well enough recovered from her latest win. Market has it right.
3.00 – C5 2m Handicap Chase
Any race with Yourholidayisover in play is always great fun. At 11/4, the old rogue is eating up a big chunk of the market here. Two first-time visors and one set of first-time blinkers among the rest so this really is a trappy contest. Can’t recommend anything with confidence.
3.30 – 2m Juvenile Hurdle
Some useful recruits here. Joycestick was a winner in the French provinces before being bought cheaply by Nick Littmoden. Hurdling experience will count for something but who knows what the form is worth. Lazarus brings a decent flat rating for an in-form trainer and has a prominent style of racing that will suit Fakenham. Oxford Blu needed all of 2m 2f on the flat for Sir Mark Prescott and seems an unlikely type to thrive at this course.
All in all, Staff College is probably the one. He is related to hurdlers including Sentry Duty, has experience and actually showed plenty of ability with his good third at Huntingdon last time. 4/1 pretty juicy imo.
I’ve done my four bets in singles and a few combinations of multis.
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