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The field is down to just 10 runners now.
Despite this fact, some fillies are weak in the betting. You can back Enable at 6/1 and Coronet is 10/1 in a couple of places.
Sobetsu is declared and is being backed, there is a little money for Natavia.
I would be worried if I was on the Gosden fillies and seeing the lack of confidence.
I’m not worried at all.
10/1. I’m going in again.
Each year for the last about the last 8, I have produced a rating for the runners in each British classic.
Its a weighted blend of stamina, pedigree, class (successful relatives), speed rating and form rating.
The primary data is converted to a comparative rating for each attribute
Success has not been universal but I have had some good years with mainly the colts classics being more successful.
Ruler of the World was a spectacularly good year…others less so. Betting wise going with combination forecasts of top 2 or 3 rated would have given the best return.
This years Oaks numbers are as follows, incidentally in 8 years I have never had a leader so far clear as this years favourite, usually a one or two point lead is average, a three point lead is a large one.
Rhododendron 23 points
Enable 12
Alluringly 11
Sobetsu 11
Horseplay 9
Natavia 9
Coronet 8
Pocketfullofdreams 6
Isabel De Urbina 5
Daddys Lil Darling 3Given the betting, I have backed Alluringly each way and will combine top 3 in rev forecasts.
Horseplay,Isabelle and Enable look like they’ve got better stamina pedigrees than Rhododendron who despite the Galileo factor has to be a lay at odds on for me.
Each year for the last about the last 8, I have produced a rating for the runners in each British classic.
Its a weighted blend of stamina, pedigree, class (successful relatives), speed rating and form rating.
The primary data is converted to a comparative rating for each attribute
Success has not been universal but I have had some good years with mainly the colts classics being more successful.
Ruler of the World was a spectacularly good year…others less so. Betting wise going with combination forecasts of top 2 or 3 rated would have given the best return.
This years Oaks numbers are as follows, incidentally in 8 years I have never had a leader so far clear as this years favourite, usually a one or two point lead is average, a three point lead is a large one.
Rhododendron 23 points
Enable 12
Alluringly 11
Sobetsu 11
Horseplay 9
Natavia 9
Coronet 8
Pocketfullofdreams 6
Isabel De Urbina 5
Daddys Lil Darling 3Given the betting, I have backed Alluringly each way and will combine top 3 in rev forecasts.
Based on that, how many lengths do you think she wins by?
It’ll be interesting to see how this race pans out for me as I had the fav down as a miler right from the start of her career… however the amount of confidence in her is making me wobble somewhat in my belief that she won’t get the trip
She’s not nailed down to last the trip but I wouldn’t go as far as to dismiss her chances. She is classy and should have finished closer to Winter in the 1000 so the Irish 1000 has really boosted her chance on class alone.
I’ve missed all value on her now and will put her in a couple of small forecast bets.
I’ve had this notion in the back of my mind that Nathaniel will sire a classic winner soon enough so I’ll have an each way dabble on Enable and Natavia as they both come into this race off of stylish victories. Enable had Alluringly beaten way out and was eased in the closing stages, flattering the keeping on AOB filly somewhat.
Natavia may have liked the soft going more than anyone else in her race but she travelled well and got it done in good style.At 6/1 and 10/1 I’ll go each way and add them into the forecast with rhododendron. I don’t usually get involved in f/c’s and t/c’s but it’s the oaks so let’s have some fun with it.
Ps – losing money is never fun.
I’ve not had a bet on this race yet but would be interested in Coronet, especially if her price drifts out any further. She really had no chance against Sobetsu last time given her positioning and looked to be staying on very well so I’m confident she’ll at least get the trip.
So I really can’t wait for the Oaks tomorrow as I think it is an excellent renewal. The favourite is being backed as if defeat is out of the question and she is certainly the most likely winner. But I can’t help feeling that this is a good race and she might not be as bullet-proof as some are saying.
If you look at her record she was a bit of a late bloomer. As recently as September she was passed over by Ryan Moore in the Moyglare and could only finish 3rd. She was very impressive in the Fillies Mile but, having struggled for ages to find form tying in her with anything else in the race, I see that she beat Rich Legacy by 12 lengths that day. This is the same Rich Legacy that was then beaten 17 lengths by Enable in the Cheshire Oaks. Everyone says she was really unlucky in the Guineas and there is no doubt that she was hampered 2 furlongs out BUT when she found daylight she wasn’t exactly making up the ground hand over fist. Plus there is the question of whether she will stay the extra half a mile. I have my doubts – I think a mile could be her best trip. Anyway, at odds-on she is not value.
So Enable ticks a lot of boxes for me. She has proven stamina, has shown she handles a tight track, and has a lovely attitude. I saw her in the flesh at Newbury and thought she really looked the part – a quality filly. She has done little wrong this year and it is very telling that connections were always quite happy for her to run here rather than her talented stablemate. I reckon Frankie will kick for home some way out and you will see this one gallop all the way to the line. Perhaps the favourite will sweep past her close home but she will definitely HAVE to get the mile a half well if she is to do so.
Another that I saw in the flesh was Natavia and I think she will run into a place as well. It may come just a little soon for her but I think this filly will be winning very good races before long.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Severe weather warning for tomorrow with torrential rain (up to 30mm) and localised flooding predicted from about 1pm -11pm – Epsom are now hostage to fortune, if they get a lot or all the rain forecast the race will be turned on its head and as Natavia handled soft very well at Newbury I would expect she may come in a few points.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/epsom-countdown/umbrellas-at-the-ready-torrential-rain-feared-for-oaks-friday/287823Going to be wet this weekend.
Juddmonte might have a nice weekend. Hard enough to get 1 ready for he big day but they have two live chances
Enable screams stayer. Would she be as speedy? Not sure, but any soft might dim the speed of the other horses.Her auld fella was good on soft ground. Her half sister was a decent enough stayer in France and tackled soft ground, and her mother (by Saddlers Well) won a listed race on soft ground
Natavia – an awful lot to ask of her in only her third race.Unlucky not to have won her maiden , she ran well. Her mother has produced a Group 1 winner, but that was at a mile. Not mad about her running in the Oaks, as she has had so little racing time, Charlton, who is often rather cautious seems to really really fancy her, you could see it in his post race interview when she won the listed race.
Severe weather warning for tomorrow with torrential rain (up to 30mm) and localised flooding predicted from about 1pm -11pm – Epsom are now hostage to fortune, if they get a lot or all the rain forecast the race will be turned on its head and as Natavia handled soft very well at Newbury I would expect she may come in a few points.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/epsom-countdown/umbrellas-at-the-ready-torrential-rain-feared-for-oaks-friday/287823Oh no
I’m either gonna be very hot or it’s gonna pour down.
So I have to take a coat now which wasn’t planned
Plus all my bets were for faster ground
Severe weather warning for tomorrow with torrential rain (up to 30mm) and localised flooding predicted from about 1pm -11pm – Epsom are now hostage to fortune, if they get a lot or all the rain forecast the race will be turned on its head and as Natavia handled soft very well at Newbury I would expect she may come in a few points.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/epsom-countdown/umbrellas-at-the-ready-torrential-rain-feared-for-oaks-friday/287823Oh no
I’m either gonna be very hot or it’s gonna pour down.
So I have to take a coat now which wasn’t planned
Plus all my bets were for faster ground
Regardless of whether it does rain the forecast is for warm weather 23/24c – it will probably be quite muggy which is the reason for the storms.
Fingers crossed that you miss the rain altogether though for both you and your bets
Thanks for that news Steve. Laid off my Coronet Oaks bet @ 14.0 for a free bet. Prix Alary is a Group 1 race also so not really a Trial.
Back in on her @ 16.0. Never thought she would run, nevermind be a bigger price than what i laid off at.
That means a win bet @ 35/1 now
I am already on HORSEPLAY at 12/1 and SOBETSU at 14/1 and too be honest have had some more on HORSEPLAY e/w at 14/1 today.
This could be famous last words but I am convinced the favourite will not stay!! I think she has too much speed and doesn’t look like a relaxed runner able to conserve her turn of foot but hey ho what do I know!!
I have had combo forecasts and exactas the above two with Coronet leaving the front two in the betting out.
If the weather is right then staying will be at a premium which will play into the hands of the three of mentioned and will IMO inconvenience the favourite.
Like I say I am there to be shot at and if the fav sluices up then I will hold my hands up but at a shade of odds on to me it looks miles too short!
Good Luck everyone
Think we need to keep the weather forecast in context. This is not wet weather front that is forecast but sporadic, very heavy thunderstorms in the wide area of Kent, Sussex, Surrey.
So significant if it hits the track but the chances of it doing so below 5%.So I really can’t wait for the Oaks tomorrow as I think it is an excellent renewal. The favourite is being backed as if defeat is out of the question and she is certainly the most likely winner. But I can’t help feeling that this is a good race and she might not be as bullet-proof as some are saying.
If you look at her record she was a bit of a late bloomer. As recently as September she was passed over by Ryan Moore in the Moyglare and could only finish 3rd. She was very impressive in the Fillies Mile but, having struggled for ages to find form tying in her with anything else in the race, I see that she beat Rich Legacy by 12 lengths that day. This is the same Rich Legacy that was then beaten 17 lengths by Enable in the Cheshire Oaks. Everyone says she was really unlucky in the Guineas and there is no doubt that she was hampered 2 furlongs out BUT when she found daylight she wasn’t exactly making up the ground hand over fist. Plus there is the question of whether she will stay the extra half a mile. I have my doubts – I think a mile could be her best trip. Anyway, at odds-on she is not value.
So Enable ticks a lot of boxes for me. She has proven stamina, has shown she handles a tight track, and has a lovely attitude. I saw her in the flesh at Newbury and thought she really looked the part – a quality filly. She has done little wrong this year and it is very telling that connections were always quite happy for her to run here rather than her talented stablemate. I reckon Frankie will kick for home some way out and you will see this one gallop all the way to the line. Perhaps the favourite will sweep past her close home but she will definitely HAVE to get the mile a half well if she is to do so.
Another that I saw in the flesh was Natavia and I think she will run into a place as well. It may come just a little soon for her but I think this filly will be winning very good races before long.
Great analysis there Joni
I have to agree with you with enable, don’t fancy the favourite at all, worst odds on fav I’ve ever seen in a classic.
Having said that with quality fillies like Sobetsu, Coronet, Natavia and Horse play in there as well I think it’s a quality renewal and bit of a headscratcher now
Rich Legacy raced Rhododendron over a mile but it was more than three furlongs further at Chester and to me she weakened in the final two furlongs there. I would not use that run as evidence to try to make a line between Rhododendron and Enable.
Rich Legacy was pretty inconsistent last season. Her formed deteriorated after her peak effort of 105 on RPR, with runs of 90 and 87 to close the season. For her run behind Enable, she scored 86 with RPR, despite being officially rated 105. The official handicapper has dropped her 2 lbs to 103 but considering that she was six lengths behind a filly now rated 90 when running in Enable’s race, it seems a bit fanciful to have Rich Legacy 13 lbs clear of that filly. I know which one I would back if she were getting almost a stone in a handicap.
The other worry I have is how good Alluringly is. She looked now’t special and the Tipperary Maiden she won was not a great race. Dabulena, who was runner up is the only winner from that race. The concern is that despite her two wins since meeting Alluringly, she is still only rated 90. That makes me question Alluringly’s rating of 106.
I feel Enable was well in control in the Cheshire Oaks and I don’t think the placings will be reversed. I am just not convinced it was a strong race. If I were an Enable backer, I would be very concerned to see 7/1 on the boards after she was generally half those odds earlier. Likewise, Coronet at 12/1 would be giving me palpitations.
I see Timeform have gone for Natavia as the danger on their ATR preview. Interestingly they also describe Coronet as an “Each-way” player and then promptly leave her out of their 1-2-3 Forecast. Are Timeform getting a special 4th place concession in this 10 runner affair?
I hope the rain stays away and we see a good winner. Hopefully class prevails. I feel Rhododendron is an amenable hold up filly and the way she finished off the fillies mile last season shows that she can pick up and finish strongly. She also finished well in the Guineas. An electric turn of foot will not be required to win this, any meaningful acceleration will suffice in a race of this distance. If she stays well enough, Ryan should come there with a double handful at the 2F marker.
I wouldn’t take odds on but there will probably be worse favourites this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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