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Of course you are going to have some Skiffle’s but for every Skiffle there is a Light Shift or Sariska or Look Here or Taghrooda. Anyway – my point is simply that, in reality, Rhododendron is very unlikely to only have to run to 108 to win the Oaks. Some of the horses in the market are likely to be far better than their current marks because their current marks are only based on scant evidence. The trick is to find the right one – if there is one!
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Yes but these ratings are based on just a couple of runs Steve – it stands to reason that many horses running in races like the Oaks would not yet have had the chance to run to their real marks as they would typically have gone maiden, trial. I would be very surprised if Enable doesn’t turn out to be far better than 107 and that she runs to a better mark than that at Epsom. I sometimes think that you read form a bit too literally in the early part of horses careers. Ratings can only be guesswork at this stage of a horses career as they are up against similarly unexposed horses.
Rhododendron is coming from a Classic though Joni. That says an awful lot. The race Horseplay won looks like a load of dross. The figures just re-enforce the argument, they are not the sole argument. I have considered all the factors, I am not lazily spouting the figures to make the argument.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I don’t think Skiffle you can really compare to Enable for example, Skiffle even when she won did a pretty poor time figure, although I must admit despite knowing that I got sucked into backing her anyway
Agree that punters tend to overestimate potential, but aren’t we allowed to dream Steve?
You say that as if it’s a bad thing but essentially that’s what Coronet definitely has that Rhododendron potentially lacks, staying power. However I think the filly does have speed, she picked up from the rear of the field very quickly in the Zetland and stayed on very well as you say to win. She beat none other than Permian and Wings of Eagles (close 2nd to Venice Beach in the Chester Vase) that day, I think that form is not far behind Rhododendron’s Guineas run.
Ifs and buts regarding her 3rd in the Saint Alary, you say it helped her I wholly disagree. Gosden also disagrees and said after the race:
“She takes a while to warm up and has to be ridden like that–that’s her style. I’m delighted with that performance after her time off and she will most definitely stay a mile and a half. She would prefer good-to-firm, but that’s not an excuse for today.
The thing about using ratings to discern facts are, they are fundamentally subjective. They are the closest thing we have to measuring ability, but they are somebody else’s opinion at the end of the day and should not be treated as gospel. Moreover, Rhododendron has had more of an opportunity to record a much higher rating than those you have mentioned, so judgement should be withheld until they have all ran to a similar level. So therefore, at this moment in time with the evidence available, I think it is only in your opinion.
Minding is rated 122, Rhododendron is on 116. It’s hardly the gulf in ability being suggested here.
I don’t have a stance on this yet as I think Rhododendron could prove to be a top class filly, just not over 12f.
Sobetsu and Coronet bring form from a race run in gutters. I don’t see that stacking up on decent ground.
Thats wrong, Sobetsu brings form running on gutters, Coronet was most likely disadvantaged by the soft ground despite her strong finish, and should run better on a sounder surface, which it looks more and more like we’ll get. She has a much less pronounced action than Sobetsu, and her pace at the finish looked blunted by the dead ground.
It’s been strange that people keep saying Rhododendron has been too short to back but the price continues to contract. Paradoxically, there was perceived value in Caravaggio at the same odds for the Commonwealth Cup, when he has less in hand of his field and at least three decent opponents.
I can’t speak for other people, but I personally never thought Caravaggio was value at 11/10, and I certainly don’t think Rhododendron is. I’m delighted with the 5/1 I have on him however. It’s only your opinion that Rhododendron has more in hand on these than Caravaggio does on his rivals. I think anybody that has 5/2, 9/4 on Rhododendron has done well, but its me beyond me how she is being relentlessly backed at 11/10, 1/1.
I don’t think Coronet has much speed. The Zetland Stakes she won is notorious for horses that need a good test of stamina. 10F is a long way for 2yo horses.
If the ground had been better in France Coronet would have been well beaten. She never got into the race and it was only staying on past beaten horses on the muddy surface that got her through to third. Coronet is rated 103 and Enable is rated 107, Natavia is rated 102 and Horseplay 100. Sobetsu may not run unless it’s soft enough, and her 113 mark is clearly ground dependent for now.
Looking at those figures, how you can say it’s only my opinion that Rhododendron has more in hand than Caravaggio is beyond me. It’s there for all to see.
You say that as if it’s a bad thing but essentially that’s what Coronet definitely has that Rhododendron potentially lacks, staying power. However I think the filly does have speed, she picked up from the rear of the field very quickly in the Zetland and stayed on very well as you say to win. She beat none other than Permian and Wings of Eagles (close 2nd to Venice Beach in the Chester Vase) that day, I think that form is not far behind Rhododendron’s Guineas run.
Ifs and buts regarding her 3rd in the Saint Alary, you say it helped her I wholly disagree. Gosden also disagrees and said after the race:
“She takes a while to warm up and has to be ridden like that–that’s her style. I’m delighted with that performance after her time off and she will most definitely stay a mile and a half. She would prefer good-to-firm, but that’s not an excuse for today.
The thing about using ratings to discern facts are, they are fundamentally subjective. They are the closest thing we have to measuring ability, but they are somebody else’s opinion at the end of the day and should not be treated as gospel. Moreover, Rhododendron has had more of an opportunity to record a much higher rating than those you have mentioned, so judgement should be withheld until they have all ran to a similar level. So therefore, at this moment in time with the evidence available, I think it is only in your opinion.
Minding is rated 122, Rhododendron is on 116. It’s hardly the gulf in ability being suggested here.
Thinking back to Minding’s Oaks, Somehow and Seventh Heaven were in the field. There looks nothing of that sort of potential this year to my eyes.
Sobetsu and Coronet bring form from a race run in gutters. I don’t see that stacking up on decent ground.
Horseplay won an awful looking Pretty Polly and her official rating is 100. Even allowing her some improvement, that’s 16 lbs lower than Rhododendron. It’s night and day form comparison.
Enable beat Alluringly last time but that filly is 10 lbs below Rhododendron on official ratings and in reality I would say it is probably a bigger gap than that between them. Alluringly is a maiden winner, whereas Rhododendron is a Group 1 winner and Classic runner-up. That’s a very different ball game for Gosden’s filly.
Natavia is promising but she seemed the only one to go on the mud last time and this is much tougher for her.
It’s been strange that people keep saying Rhododendron has been too short to back but the price continues to contract. Paradoxically, there was perceived value in Caravaggio at the same odds for the Commonwealth Cup, when he has less in hand of his field and at least three decent opponents.
I couldn’t back against Rhododendron here. I feel she has plenty in hand of this field.
Coronets form like with Permian looks good after beating him last year in a listed race along with Cunco.
Coronet on good ground over this trip is the bet for me.
You say that as if it’s a bad thing but essentially that’s what Coronet definitely has that Rhododendron potentially lacks, staying power. However I think the filly does have speed, she picked up from the rear of the field very quickly in the Zetland and stayed on very well as you say to win. She beat none other than Permian and Wings of Eagles (close 2nd to Venice Beach in the Chester Vase) that day, I think that form is not far behind Rhododendron’s Guineas run.
Ifs and buts regarding her 3rd in the Saint Alary, you say it helped her I wholly disagree. Gosden also disagrees and said after the race:
“She takes a while to warm up and has to be ridden like that–that’s her style. I’m delighted with that performance after her time off and she will most definitely stay a mile and a half. She would prefer good-to-firm, but that’s not an excuse for today.
The thing about using ratings to discern facts are, they are fundamentally subjective. They are the closest thing we have to measuring ability, but they are somebody else’s opinion at the end of the day and should not be treated as gospel. Moreover, Rhododendron has had more of an opportunity to record a much higher rating than those you have mentioned, so judgement should be withheld until they have all ran to a similar level. So therefore, at this moment in time with the evidence available, I think it is only in your opinion.
Your first paragraph is bang on.
Her run in the Zealand when staying on to beat Permian, Cunco and Wings of Eagles is being massively overlooked.
She stayed really well that day and yet that is being looked at as rubbish form. For me, she should probably be 2nd favourite at 5/1 with the favourite probably 7/4 or 2/1. Evens for her is hilarious. Absolutely ridiculous price and anyone playing at that price should give their head a wobble.
Permian has improved a stone since meeting Coronet. He was beaten off 100 in a Bath handicap. There was no indication that he was going to improve so much this spring. That’s why they have had to stump up £85,000 to get into the race.
You can’t take Permian’s current ability and apply it in retrospect to last year’s form. Some horses improve and some don’t.
There is no Evens on Rhododendron now. She is odds-on across the boards.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Anyone seen the interview with O’Brien?
He listed his horses that will be running at epsom.
When it come to the oaks, he simply said that they would wait until tomorrow before deciding if they will declare anything in the race. He then said that Rhododendrun and alluringly are doing well at home though.
Is there a chance he won’t run Rhododendrun then? Seems a strange comment to make or am I reading into it too much?
According to RP site, his exact words were
“We’ll decide in the morning whether we’ll declare anything else for the Oaks but Rhododendron and Alluringly are both in good form,” O’Brien said.
The important word being ‘else’.According to RP site, his exact words were
“We’ll decide in the morning whether we’ll declare anything else for the Oaks but Rhododendron and Alluringly are both in good form,” O’Brien said.
The important word being ‘else’.They’ve edited the article I see. I assume they realised it was their mistake.
It would be bad for the race if the favourite was withdrawn so I’m glad.
The field is down to just 10 runners now.
Despite this fact, some fillies are weak in the betting. You can back Enable at 6/1 and Coronet is 10/1 in a couple of places.
Sobetsu is declared and is being backed, there is a little money for Natavia.
I would be worried if I was on the Gosden fillies and seeing the lack of confidence.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yes, just 10 now and an interesting shape to the market if you can find an angle.
I missed the prices on Rhododendron as I had been backing her in the Guineas/Oaks double market at 16s, beaten on merit at Newmarket…no complaints and a worthy favourite here but not a bet at odds on.
The second O’Brien filly is of more interest as a bet now. Alluringly is 20/1 and I have had a decent each way on her after the final decs this morning..
I have thought since Chester that she was big, attractive and seemed to handle turning tracks at the Roodeye and at Tipp’.
Also she runs very straight which is a good sign and I felt that she hasn’t yet contested a race which allowed her to reach her top speed. She railed well in her last two starts and she will appreciate a longer straight I am sure.
Fastnet Rock, so probably wants it good or better but that Urban Sea bottom line is very appealing. Her grand dam was (a distant) 2nd to Ouija Board in the Oaks.
Finally, the inclusion of Pocketfullofdreams is encouraging as there is now a clear Ballydoyle ‘hare’ or at least pacemaker and Alluringly won’t have to complete that role herself.
Might also consider the Cheshire Oaks reverse forecast as Enable looks a solid citizen.
Yes, Rhododendron looks clear best but Alluringly now the bet each way at 20/1.Yes, just 10 now and an interesting shape to the market if you can find an angle.
I missed the prices on Rhododendron as I had been backing her in the Guineas/Oaks double market at 16s, beaten on merit at Newmarket…no complaints and a worthy favourite here but not a bet at odds on.
The second O’Brien filly is of more interest as a bet now. Alluringly is 20/1 and I have had a decent each way on her after the final decs this morning..
I have thought since Chester that she was big, attractive and seemed to handle turning tracks at the Roodeye and at Tipp’.
Also she runs very straight which is a good sign and I felt that she hasn’t yet contested a race which allowed her to reach her top speed. She railed well in her last two starts and she will appreciate a longer straight I am sure.
Fastnet Rock, so probably wants it good or better but that Urban Sea bottom line is very appealing. Her grand dam was (a distant) 2nd to Ouija Board in the Oaks.
Finally, the inclusion of Pocketfullofdreams is encouraging as there is now a clear Ballydoyle ‘hare’ or at least pacemaker and Alluringly won’t have to complete that role herself.
Might also consider the Cheshire Oaks reverse forecast as Enable looks a solid citizen.
Yes, Rhododendron looks clear best but Alluringly now the bet each way at 20/1.I was looking at Alluringly and thinking the difference in prices between herself and Enable are a bit of a joke, I mean Enable could only beat her by 1 and a bit lengths but is a 1/4 of her price. Just say we reversed that form by 2 lengths, bearing in mind the horses in behind were a long way back, what price would Alluringly be? Probably vying for favouritism with her stablemate in my opinion.
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