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Can’t get a handle on the race. The second didn’t stay and I can’t believe enable has improved so much against the third. She looked much more suited to the 12f and I’d wait to see her next run before judging her.id back rhododendron to beat her over 10f anyday
Just a thought. I wonder if rhododendron will be like found was and be runner up in Grp 1s then hit the target when not expected to.
The official Handicapper has awarded 122 to Enable for winning the Oaks. That is 6 lbs higher than Taghrooda in her year. Taghrooda went on to win the King George QE II to be rated 125, so clearly the two fillies are on similar paths.
I had said on another thread that I felt Shutter Speed was eerily similar in profile to Taghrooda but it turned out her stablemate trod that path instead.
Shutter Speed is now odds-on for the Prix Diane. I have 2/1 there but it’s not the 16/1 I had for the Oaks.
For now, Shutter Speed lies a full stone behind old sparring partner Enable, on a mark of 108. I hope she gets her ground in France and proves that mark to seriously underestimate her ability.
As far as 122 for a rating goes, it looks potentially a bit high. I wouldn’t like to say how much below her 1 mile form that Rhododendron ran. The Racing Post had her running to 113 but it could potentially been less than that in my opinion.
I hope Enable and Shutter Speed turn out to be above average.
With Enable improving 15 lbs since Chester, it looks like I picked the wrong year to assume that nothing could improve enough to beat the Group 1 horse in the field.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Difficult to know what happened with Rhododendron, did she not stay because she doesn’t get the trip? Or was she affected by the conditions or her travels? It was reported that she got quite upset in the paddock with the thunder and lightning. And that on top of the trauma of the travel delays, which is likely to have affected a young filly more than a seasoned traveller like Highland Reel. There was also the driving rain during the race. Remembering back to the Moyglare Stakes, she ran poorly then in bad weather conditions during the race.
But for whatever reason, she didn’t last home.
Frankie said he was worried when he looked over and saw Ryan motionless on Rhododendron. She just seemed to empty and Ryan stopped riding, there was no point in beating her up when she was well clear of the third. And the third wasn’t beaten up either because she was well clear of the fourth. But the winner was pushed out to the line. So the distances were exaggerated.You’d like to see them try Rhododendron over the trip again, just to rule it in or out. But it’s likely she will go for the Pretty Polly next which would rule out the Irish Oaks.
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