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I like Glencadam Glory as an e/w shot at a huge price (28/1) in the Lingfield trial tomorrow. In his last race he completely missed the break and lost a full 12 lengths on the field, however, he recovered really well to finish strongly.
I liked the look of him too but am not playing anything today. Having an operation instead
Very happy with Cliffs Of Moher who will improve massively. 10s was my price when I posted earlier in the thread and I’m happy with that.
The staying on Khalid Abdullah horse in 4th that flew home (Mirage something) could be interesting too. But then again, they’ve already got Enable and Shutter Speed as Derby contenders.
Think you’ll find those two are running in the Oaks mate
Heh. You could really tell my mind was on other things there couldn’t you?
I was in the reception waiting to be taken to my room for the day when typing that.
It’s funny as I actually played Shutter Speed antepost for the oaks (see oaks thread).
I’ve already got Cliffs of Moher at 10s from a few weeks ago but am tempted to have a go at Glencadem Glory at 50/1 who flew home in the Lingfield trial for second. Also thinking of getting him added to the st lever betting as he will surely stay.
Cracksman’s owner does not sound too confident
https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/cracksman-camp-express-derby-doubts-as-dante-draws-near/285669
Cracksman’s owner does not sound too confident
https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/cracksman-camp-express-derby-doubts-as-dante-draws-near/285669
Cracksman is no Golden Horn and for that reason alone the owner can’t be as confident about this year’s Derby.
Horses as good as Golden Horn rarely come along and it would be greed to expect another of the same ability so soon. This looks a cack Derby though and, potentially, Cracksman may only need to be within 8-10 lbs of Golden Horn’s best efforts, in order to win the Derby.
The owner was adamant last year that Golden Horn would not stay and hopefully Gosden has a better handle on it than Mr Oppenheimer again this year. He’s good at making money but judging horses?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Cracksman is 11/4 for the Dante. That seems a huge price.
Crystal Ocean is 3/1 and may even start favourite at this rate.
There was a feature on The Racing Post website where most of the panel seemed to think Crystal Ocean was value for the Derby at 12/1. While the colt could be anything, he has to rise more that two stones over his next two races in order to snag even a modest renewal of the Derby.
Undoubtedly impressive last time out, Crystal Ocean looks an excellent sort but he is rated 89 for winning his second race and that is a figure you expect a decent horse to record on its debut at 2YO. I had to laugh at the notion that Crystal Ocean’s form has been “Franked” because the second, rated 81, won a virtually identical maiden at the same track, as 7/4 Fav, on his next (4th) start. It is fanciful in the extreme to deem that as franking the form of a horse being considered for the Derby.
For the moment Cracksman is rated 107 by the official handicapper, while Crystal Ocean is on 89. That is 18 lbs that the Stoute horse has to make up. That is quite a chunk, and while it is possible, it’s not a certainty and, importantly, Cracksman may also take a step forward, after only having had the same two races in his career as Crystal Ocean has had.
I am beginning to wonder if Cracksman has lost a leg. Drifting out and negativity from the owner seems to be muddying a situation where the form on the table thus far makes the choice between the two colts seem crystal clear, rather than Crystal Ocean.
As Cormack himself used to sing, “These are Strange Days, strange times”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hopefully the Dante throws up a good winner otherwise it’s trusting C moher to stay for me. Must Be the least exciting run up to a derby for years. Might have a winner rated lower than ruler of the world. Thanks God for the like of minding and almanzhor staying in trainin
Sir John Lavery sluiced
Liked Mirage Dancer, Murphy gave him a shocker of a ride tactically but he fairly flew up the straight once he got daylight and was in front of the others 100 yards past the post
100 yards past the post means little. US Army Ranger was passed out Harzand in the Derby after the post and look where he is at now after subsequent races . MD had enough daylight to nab 3rd. Moore had stopped riding once he got on the line.
The performance of MD does remind me of the complete and utter cock up of De Sousa on Across The Stars in the Lingfield trial of 2016 where that horse had the race at his mercy only for the jockey to inexplicably get impeded .
Stoute must have told Oisin to get the near rail (despite other races suggesting that was not a great idea) and the horse was not quick enough to be in the top 4 and was thus held up. MD’s dam did nothing in Europe beyond a mile and that Group 1 in the US who did she beat? Her other two progeny never saw over a mile either and they were not great (and neither have done or are doing much in the US) Radiator and Forge
Mirage Dancer was drawn wide and immediately taken to the inner. He seemed to get a little outpaced towards the end of the back straight and then had nowhere to go for half a furlong or so until the tuck-away. Once clear he picked up well. With a clear run he might have been in the first 3 but he wouldn’t have won. I’d call him a work in progress, one who might be interesting in a King Edward and one that SMS will no doubt improve as he gets older.
As for Cracksman; it’s all about what he might do rather than what he has actually done and the value has long since disappeared. But Thursday is a big day for him and hopefully he will go well. I’d be wary of the Crystal Ocean gamble – didn’t something similar happen with Ulysses a year or two ago? We all like a Stoute Gamble don’t we? He has a lot of improvement to make ( the horse I mean – not Stoute….he is fully exposed)
At this stage the Derby definitely needs a star performer especially if Churchill doesn’t run. The trials so far have been uninspiring but perhaps there is one lurking in the wings ready to jump out on Thursday…..
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Mirage Dancer was drawn wide
As was Cliffs of Moher
and immediately taken to the inner. He seemed to get a little outpaced towards the end of the back straight and then had nowhere to go for half a furlong or so until the tuck-away.
If he had taken a similar wide route as Cliffs of Moher , would he have stayed the trip , given a clearer path, but made to run prominently? Was he looking for the rail to save ground?
Once clear he picked up well. With a clear run he might have been in the first 3 but he wouldn’t have won.
Third at best. I would not have been hard on Murphy for the ride. This was the horse’s first time out this season, is he a stayer? Granted, he is a Frankel so he may well be, but his mother’s side and what she has produced (really don’t think much of US Group 1s with no European trains horses in them) calls that into question.
I’d call him a work in progress, one who might be interesting in a King Edward and one that SMS will no doubt improve as he gets older.
Hope so, SMS already has trained two of Heat Haze’s other horses with not too much luck (Jersey last year was unfortunate with Forge on soft ground and Moore’s love for being boxed in during that meeting)
As for Cracksman; it’s all about what he might do rather than what he has actually done and the value has long since disappeared.
Owner is already making sounds about not going to the Derby. People have pointed out that Gosden can’t be trusted too much with what he says at the moment. But, at least Cracksman is not “a typical Frankel”, neither, it seems Charlton’s Frankel that is now owned by Godolpin
But Thursday is a big day for him and hopefully he will go well. I’d be wary of the Crystal Ocean gamble – didn’t something similar happen with Ulysses a year or two ago? We all like a Stoute Gamble don’t we? He has a lot of improvement to make ( the horse I mean – not Stoute….he is fully exposed)
Beginning to think that if allowed,by daddy, Rekindling for Joseph O’Brien could win the Dante, but, the horses that ran in the Ballysax behind him and subsequently the Derringstown is not encouraging
At this stage the Derby definitely needs a star performer especially if Churchill doesn’t run. The trials so far have been uninspiring but perhaps there is one lurking in the wings ready to jump out on Thursday…..
This all very underwhelming at the moment . Last year, after the Ballsax, I had my money on Harzand after Weld publicly disagreed with Smullen about his chances in the Derby – Smullen thought that he was more a Leger horse (he was, but Derby was always worth a crack)
Right now, Venice Beach has being the most promising ……….for Coolmore. They won’t be dominating everything just yet! Doubt Churchill will run,but yeah, he is the only one out of Coolmore’s worth backing right now
Cracksman is 11/4 for the Dante. That seems a huge price.
Crystal Ocean is 3/1 and may even start favourite at this rate.
There was a feature on The Racing Post website where most of the panel seemed to think Crystal Ocean was value for the Derby at 12/1. While the colt could be anything, he has to rise more that two stones over his next two races in order to snag even a modest renewal of the Derby.
Undoubtedly impressive last time out, Crystal Ocean looks an excellent sort but he is rated 89 for winning his second race and that is a figure you expect a decent horse to record on its debut at 2YO. I had to laugh at the notion that Crystal Ocean’s form has been “Franked” because the second, rated 81, won a virtually identical maiden at the same track, as 7/4 Fav, on his next (4th) start. It is fanciful in the extreme to deem that as franking the form of a horse being considered for the Derby.
For the moment Cracksman is rated 107 by the official handicapper, while Crystal Ocean is on 89. That is 18 lbs that the Stoute horse has to make up. That is quite a chunk, and while it is possible, it’s not a certainty and, importantly, Cracksman may also take a step forward, after only having had the same two races in his career as Crystal Ocean has had.
I am beginning to wonder if Cracksman has lost a leg. Drifting out and negativity from the owner seems to be muddying a situation where the form on the table thus far makes the choice between the two colts seem crystal clear, rather than Crystal Ocean.
As Cormack himself used to sing, “These are Strange Days, strange times”
This quote from SMS would confirm your thoughts regarding Crystal Ocean:
QUOTE Sir Michael Stoute, trainer: “I don’t know how many tenners constitute a gamble,” he said, adding: “We have been bringing him along steadily and I doubt he is a Derby horse.”
Really fancy Bennatl tomorrow
Think he’s gonna relish the step up in trip. Godolphin always thought he’d be a good middle distance horse in the making.
Currently 33/1 for the Derby but I’m not playing that. Could live to regret it potentially.
But 6/1 for a poor Dante in which I don’t even think the favourite will run in, is big enough for me.
Cracksman is 11/4 for the Dante. That seems a huge price.
Crystal Ocean is 3/1 and may even start favourite at this rate.
There was a feature on The Racing Post website where most of the panel seemed to think Crystal Ocean was value for the Derby at 12/1. While the colt could be anything, he has to rise more that two stones over his next two races in order to snag even a modest renewal of the Derby.
Undoubtedly impressive last time out, Crystal Ocean looks an excellent sort but he is rated 89 for winning his second race and that is a figure you expect a decent horse to record on its debut at 2YO. I had to laugh at the notion that Crystal Ocean’s form has been “Franked” because the second, rated 81, won a virtually identical maiden at the same track, as 7/4 Fav, on his next (4th) start. It is fanciful in the extreme to deem that as franking the form of a horse being considered for the Derby.
For the moment Cracksman is rated 107 by the official handicapper, while Crystal Ocean is on 89. That is 18 lbs that the Stoute horse has to make up. That is quite a chunk, and while it is possible, it’s not a certainty and, importantly, Cracksman may also take a step forward, after only having had the same two races in his career as Crystal Ocean has had.
I am beginning to wonder if Cracksman has lost a leg. Drifting out and negativity from the owner seems to be muddying a situation where the form on the table thus far makes the choice between the two colts seem crystal clear, rather than Crystal Ocean.
As Cormack himself used to sing, “These are Strange Days, strange times”
This quote from SMS would confirm your thoughts regarding Crystal Ocean:
QUOTE Sir Michael Stoute, trainer: “I don’t know how many tenners constitute a gamble,” he said, adding: “We have been bringing him along steadily and I doubt he is a Derby horse.”
Crystal Ocean is relatively weak for The Dante tonight. Out to 9/2 in places. If the rain had not come I would have had a good bet on Cracksman but the rain and the continual negative drizzle from the Gosden camp has put me off.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Based on what JG said yesterday and the subsequent rainfall I dont think Cracksman will line up. Frankie said that Shutter Speed hated the conditions yesterday so not sure theyll bother risking Cracksman.
Im holding a ticket at 25s for the Derby but the negative vibes from the Gosden/Oppenheimer camp are somewhat unsettling.
Unfortunately the weather is ruining a good midweek festival.
Cracksman is 11/4 for the Dante. That seems a huge price.
Crystal Ocean is 3/1 and may even start favourite at this rate.
There was a feature on The Racing Post website where most of the panel seemed to think Crystal Ocean was value for the Derby at 12/1. While the colt could be anything, he has to rise more that two stones over his next two races in order to snag even a modest renewal of the Derby.
Undoubtedly impressive last time out, Crystal Ocean looks an excellent sort but he is rated 89 for winning his second race and that is a figure you expect a decent horse to record on its debut at 2YO. I had to laugh at the notion that Crystal Ocean’s form has been “Franked” because the second, rated 81, won a virtually identical maiden at the same track, as 7/4 Fav, on his next (4th) start. It is fanciful in the extreme to deem that as franking the form of a horse being considered for the Derby.
For the moment Cracksman is rated 107 by the official handicapper, while Crystal Ocean is on 89. That is 18 lbs that the Stoute horse has to make up. That is quite a chunk, and while it is possible, it’s not a certainty and, importantly, Cracksman may also take a step forward, after only having had the same two races in his career as Crystal Ocean has had.
I am beginning to wonder if Cracksman has lost a leg. Drifting out and negativity from the owner seems to be muddying a situation where the form on the table thus far makes the choice between the two colts seem crystal clear, rather than Crystal Ocean.
As Cormack himself used to sing, “These are Strange Days, strange times”
This quote from SMS would confirm your thoughts regarding Crystal Ocean:
QUOTE Sir Michael Stoute, trainer: “I don’t know how many tenners constitute a gamble,” he said, adding: “We have been bringing him along steadily and I doubt he is a Derby horse.”
I was thinking back to last year’s Derby thread and on the 23rd May I said the following regarding Ulysses:-
“That was an awful maiden Ulysses won and if he wins the Derby it will be the worst ever.
7/1 for the Derby in some places is an utter joke and some of these punters must be totally clueless and harking back to Shergar for inspiration.
Talk about headless betting
”Plenty of good judges were backers of Ulysses but it’s a hell of an ask from beating horses ultimately rated in the 70’s and 80’s, as Ulysses did, and then contesting a Derby a couple of weeks later.
Crystal Ocean won’t face Cracksman now but still needs to take a big leap forward in the Dante, against horses a stone and a half better than the ones he beat last time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Laid off Crystal Ocean @ 11.5 for a free bet at about 20/1 . Must of improved about 20 lbs there.
According to Sir Michael Stoute to Oli Bell on ITV4….Crystal Ocean DOES NOT run in the Derby. More to follow….
According to Sir Michael Stoute to Oli Bell on ITV4….Crystal Ocean DOES NOT run in the Derby. More to follow….
A bit too quick for him, but no doubt he could make up into a bit more than a handicapper this year.
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