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To me it seems that the only reason Chicquita was late entered was to give Joe a ride in the race.Am I crazy or what? He can’t do the weights on Tapestry and has just been jocked off the other.If Mrs. Hay could get rides for Spencer from the yard then anything is possible.Seems like Aidan is not the ruler of his world after all.
I thought Chicquita had always been in the race and Tapestry was the late addition?
Kingston Hill is as good as goosed having drawn coffin box stall 20. That is the final nail banged in after not managing to get his ground once this season.
Taghrooda is up against it as well from stall 15 and she has eased a point all over the boards on the back of that news.
Avenir Certain has the inside coffin draw in 1 and Treve is berthed two along in 3. Tapestry and Ruler Of The World fared better in stalls 8 and 6 but Chiquita has it all on from 18. The Japanese trio of Just A Way, Harp Star and Gold Ship were allotted 14, 12 and 2.
The likely favourite now, Ectot has stall 10 and it makes you laugh to see the report that a double figure draw is poison and then read in the same piece that he’s well drawn in stall 10
The article starts with the negativity surrounding Taghrooda in stall 15 but seems to gloss over Just A Way being right next door.What was the winning berth last year? Oh yes, stall 15….
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Despite backing her I have been struggling to be optimistic about Taghrooda’s chances. The draw has now drained away that little hope.
I have always had grave doubts about Hanagan even from a decent draw. She had something in hand in her previous races but it will be a different story on Sunday.
The filly has not had that many runs but she has been on the go for most of the season. Outwardly there were no real excuses at York and I suspect her Arc chances really went west with the victory in the King George. I know Sea The Stars went through the season but he bypassed Ascot.
Apparantly, Treve won from the same draw last year but she produced a performance that I doubt Taghrooda would be capable of even at her best. This year’s renewal looks a bit more competitive as well.
Hope I am wrong but I will be surprised if she makes the first five.
HKJC is simulcasting the Arc (and the Opera) – racecard not yet available.
Meanwhile, taster piece mentions the German horse that defeated then-Arc-favourite Sea The Moon:
>>>>>>>>>>>
Optimism over foreign raiders in the Arc and the Prix de l’Opera03/10/2014
The history of Sunday’s G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at France’s great Longchamp racecourse reveals a powerful winning bias towards victory for the host nation.
But there is huge confidence behind overseas raiders this year and that also applies to the Prix de l’Opera, the G1 for fillies and mares that will be simulcast directly before Europe’s greatest race.
Amongst the Arc threats to local dominance in 2014 is Germany’s Ivanhowe, admittedly trained by Frenchman Jean-Pierre Carvalho. Outside Germany four-year-old Ivanhowe remains a mystery horse and arguably has not received the credit he deserves – let’s not forget that he won last month’s G1 Grosser Preis Von Baden easily defeating the brilliant Sea The Moon who was ante-post Arc favourite at the time.
Racing Manager Gebhard Apelt explains that a series of setbacks has undermined Ivanhowe’s career but that everything is coming right now. Apelt concludes: "The Arc is the race for our breeding because in Germany many of main races are run over this sort of distance. On Sunday we want a fast pace, and, if so, there aren’t many horses that we are particularly frightened of. "
The Japanese are also familiar with Arc near-misses but there is no shortage of confidence in their 2014 assault. They have Just A Way, Gold Ship and Harp Star and it is the latter who, this week, has been attracting most interest after an exciting piece of work at Chantilly when she surged clear of a workmate in a 2000m spin.
Trainer Hiroyoshi Matsuda already seems to be anticipating victory on Sunday with his post-gallop observation: "I am looking forward to all the crowd applause afterwards!" Perhaps that was a joke but this three-year-old filly – and fillies have won four of the last six Arc runnings – has a reputation for devastating late speed and 66-year-old veteran Matsuda threatens: "It is a weapon we intend to exploit."
With Taghrooda, another brilliant three-year-old filly, the most likely favourite the betting won’t suggest that Kingston Hill is the UK’s most obvious Arc winner. But that is not worrying jockey Andrea Atzeni who has established a huge reputation this year and will attempt to become the first jockey to win on his debut Arc ride since Eric Saint-Martin on Urban Sea back in 1993.
Atzeni says of the colt who won the G1 St Leger at Doncaster last month: "The great thing about Kingston Hill is that he is quick from the gates and that is an advantage in the Arc. I don’t think we’ve got to the bottom of this horse yet – he even won a home gallop the other day which he never usually does."
Kingston Hill’s astute trainer Roger Varian sends out the sharply progressive Hadaatha in the earlier G1 Prix de l’Opera over 2000m. Varian plundered this prestigious prize a few years ago with a similarly unexposed filly so Hadaatha will surely get betting respect as will Ribbons, also targetting Longchamp from Newmarket.
Her trainer James Fanshawe says: "She puts her head down and fights. I was tearing my hair out before that G1 at Deauville in August, wondering if she was good enough. She was – winning brilliantly under Frankie Dettori – and so she certainly deserves to have another go on Sunday."
Great draw for Tapestry and with Moore on board she has everything in her favour IF she is good enough of course.
As I said earlier, it’s a leap of faith on just 2 good runs (both over 12f) and 3 bad runs (8f) this year but there’s just something not right to me and if this were a handicap I’d swear she was a plot job.
She was sent off favourite for the English 1,000 and ran appalingly but wasn’t given a hard time of it once it was obvious she was being outpaced, which you’d expect at 3yo given her breeding. Incidentally enough her dam suffered a very similar fate when favourite for her 1,000 when also appearing outpaced.
She was given even less of a hard time in the Coronation when not getting a run and subsequently "allowed to coast home"
Dropping back to a mile for the Matron was a ridiculous decision and one that still baffles me but then connections stump up €120,000 to supplement her for this
There isn’t a horse in the race without doubts and I’ve clearly seen the negatives in her form as I want to see them but in an open race sometimes it’s all about gut feeling.
Lee
Good post Lee. I’ve kept on side with Tapestry all year but she has been mucked about something chronic by her connections. Amazing she only has 1 win to her name. If she wins it will be very much "in spite of" not "thanks to" her trainer.
Could you imagine Sir Henry ever running a 1m4f Group 1 winning filly who clearly needs a trip back over 8f?!! It was a decision that had nothing to do with the welfare of the horse and everything to do with supporting Irish Champions Day and having a runner in the Matron. Very noble but not very clever imo.
Other than that it really boils down to whether that run in the Yorkshire Oaks can be taken literally ie did Taghrooda run to form or have an off day? On the day I thought she was simply beaten by a better filly. There certainly didn’t seem to be a hard luck story. But then JG who didn’t want to make any excuses made two whoppers – she hated the fast ground and she was in season. If Tapestry beat the KG winner on merit she must have a decent chance if it doesn’t rain too much. Her Irish Oaks effort was very good considering her saddle slipped at the start and of course Ryan Moore is a big fan which probably says as much as needs to be said.
However I never back horses who are aimed as afterthoughts and this is clearly the case with Tapestry. This race was never the plan (god knows what race was!) and when she leaves those stalls the poor thing will have no idea what trip is in store for her.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The Arc is the easiest race of the year to find the winner,always has been and thats the horse with the most 111111’s by its name,if its had a 2 in there its still a player…….So why do I think
Tapestry
will surprise with lousy form figures? Simple,she will love the trip and so long as the rain stays away she will bounce off the ground.Aiden O’Brien is to form figures what Peter Chapple-Hyam is to Lettuce sandwiches.
Sod the draw. If a horse is talented enough, has a great temperament, gets the preferred ground and is piloted by a fine jockey, then I’m gonna be cheering for Kingston Hill all the way.
Come on Kingston Hill!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is strange how racing fans gravitate towards a particular horse and then find it easy enough to dismiss the negative aspects of its form when approaching a big race.
If we look at Taghrooda, she was coasting along happily towards the Arc unbeaten and improving with every race. One blemish on her record after being beaten by Tapestry, although still well clear of everything else, and she doubles in price for the Arc, being labelled as "clearly not good enough" by some.
Strangely though, a filly such as Tapestry who has had several disappointments and a half-assed preparation at best, seems readily forgiven her disappointments. Yes, they were over shorter but the fact is that she only has
one
run where her form looks good enough to lift the Arc.
If we move on to Treve we see a horse who has had as bad a season as could have been possible after all the talk that she was flying on the gallops early this year. Narrow defeat, injury and then a 4th behind horses rated well below her all point to a filly with problems. The jockey controversy, the faster ground this year and more weight on her back than last season all make life difficult but some people seem to believe it is all about the one race and there is a faith that she will turn up as ripe as she was last year from some people I have spoken to.
Taghrooda has no concerns at the trip and the ground should be ideal. The draw is not ideal but I think we saw at Epsom that she can travel and sit in a race. Temperament is not a factor and her naturally pessimistic trainer has declared she has worked well in the build up to this. Had she come here with her 100% record intact, I would see her being 3/1 on Sunday, maybe shorter still if Ectot had not emerged slightly out of left field. I am on her at 14/1 and topped up at 10/1, having earlier decided to leave the 50/1 offered early in the season, on the grounds that her trainer is prone to keep his fillies against their own sex, a policy that proved a red herring to punters who loaded up for the Irish Oaks on the back of that old salt, only to be peppered by bullet holes as she turned up at Ascot instead.
I am confident Taghrooda will be thereabouts, some of the field have stamina questions, plus there are disappointments and class issues to address from some contenders. Bad draw aside, she is one race away from coming here with a much stronger unbeaten career behind her than Treve brought to this race a year ago. This year’s race is a better one, I believe, yet Ectot is probably the only horse I feel has the potential, and few enough question marks, to be a better option than the horse who I backed and was dreaming about for the Oaks before Christmas last year.
Go on the Tag Team!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It is strange how racing fans gravitate towards a particular horse and then find it easy enough to dismiss the negative aspects of its form when approaching a big race.
If we look at Taghrooda, she was coasting along happily towards the Arc unbeaten and improving with every race. One blemish on her record after being beaten by Tapestry, although still well clear of everything else, and she doubles in price for the Arc, being labelled as "clearly not good enough" by some.
Strangely though, a filly such as Tapestry who has had several disappointments and a half-assed preparation at best, seems readily forgiven her disappointments. Yes, they were over shorter but the fact is that she only has
one
run where her form looks good enough to lift the Arc.
I think a lot of this is down to the price. With Tapestry at 14/1 it is easier for punters to ‘forgive’ or ‘forget’ a few disappointments and remember her best form than is the case with Taghrooda at 6/1.
I don’t have a strong opinion myself but I think there’s worse bets than Dolniya at 40/1. She had been impressive before the Vermeille and ran a nice trial in third, staying on nicely just ahead of Treve.
Well said thm
I think – prior to the draw – Taghrooda was the more likely winner of the two but Tapestry should not have been three times the price, thus there was only one bet.
THM; I’ve been looking for a good ew outsider to back and Dolniya [sp] has been mentioned before so, with such a good draw I think she’s the one I’ll go for. I was there a couple of years ago when the unfancied Aga Khan horse won the race [still recall how confused I was seeing it all play out as it did].
I think a lot of this is down to the price. With Tapestry at 14/1 it is easier for punters to ‘forgive’ or ‘forget’ a few disappointments and remember her best form than is the case with Taghrooda at 6/1.
Could be Tommy. I just feel this has been a bizarre route to the Arc for Tapestry and no matter what the odds are you need to weigh up the more reliable looking bet.
I saw Andrew Balding on CH4 today voicing his faith that Treve will be right back to her best tomorrow. Even if she is, she has 8lbs more on her back now, faster ground and an arguably stronger field to face. The channel 4 boys reckon it will take an exceptional training performance to see Treve win back to back Arcs.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The intensity of the forecast showers overnight could play a big part in the outcome. If Criquette Head is correct, and Treve is back to her best, a bit of cut in the ground would make 11/1 a crazy price.
I’m happy to take the trainer at her word. I’m less confident that enough rain will arrive to make a serious impact, but despite the doom and gloom over Treve’s performances this year, they’ve hardly been awful.
Her seasonal debut saw her go down to Cirr Des Aigles by a short neck at a trip possibly short of her best and with her perhaps a shade ring rusty.
Next time she moved poorly to the start and not much better in the race, where she hung right and returned, reportedly with a back muscle problem.
Her trainer warned prior to her next race that she would need it. She again hung right there, opening up the possibility that her back problem might still be troubling her.
Fighting fit tomorrow, she could trounce them again.
I’ll be backing Kingston Hill as a saver. I think he’s still learning and improving and whatever the draw, he lacks the early pace to make the best of a good one, and for a bad one to do too much damage, as he’ll be eased to the outside, I think and brought with his run.
The way my luck is currently going I envisage him hanging left late and Treve hanging right for a wee race-losing bumping match!
Good luck to all
JoeI’m all-in on Tapestry and Taghrooda ante-post.
Tapestry was touted as a wonder-horse and AoB seems to have been trying to prove it ever since, in the face of various problems/hard luck stories. Being the only one to have ever beaten Taghrooda could well be all the proof that is needed!
If you take Tapestry out of the Yorkshire Oaks, Taghrooda would still be unbeaten and would surely be a short Arc favourite. She would have won there by 7 1/2 lengths from Tasaday.
Tasaday has twice raced against Treve in her prime (including Arc last year) and has been beaten about 5 1/2 lengths each time.
Tag’s form looks very solid throughout, although last time she allegedly had an off-day as she was coming into season. Even if she didn’t have an off-day, surely that was enough to show she is the one to beat…
… except for, the last-minute supplemented Irish wonderhorse. Tapestry!
Tapestry is the only horse to have ever beaten Taghrooda and Gosden and connections were clearly absolutely astonished to be beaten at York.
I only have 3 worries about Tapestry. Never heard of the trainer, who on earth is this "Moore" jockey, and I hear Tapestry doesn’t want bottom-less ground.
I’m hoping Taghrooda is still the real deal – but that Tapestry is finally showing that she is among the very best too – and they can fight out the finish.
Heart/head wants Tag to win, pocket wants Tap…
The article starts with the negativity surrounding Taghrooda in stall 15 but seems to gloss over Just A Way being right next door.
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