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Tip Two Win is 50/1 for the Guineas and it’s hard to see him involved really, but you can’t blame them for dreaming.
The trainer admitted that O’Brien will probably have 20 as good as Tip Two Win but that he can only try with his sole colt of that quality.
Glorious Journey is a dark contender that I have seen very little talk about, yet has achieved more than some of those ahead of him in the betting.
Glorious Journey is by Dubawi, out of Coronation Stakes winner Fallen For You and he made a winning debut at Newmarket before going to Saint Cloud for the Group 3 La Rochette. He met a Jean-Claude Rouget filly Feralia that day and she was favourite in the 7F contest, with just the four runners. Somewhat unusually for France it would seem, the going was actually good. Glorious Journey was given quite an aggressive ride from the front and although Feralia could probably have done with her jockey keeping closer order, looking at the race again shows that Glorious Journey was holding her fairly readily.
Entered in the Derby as well as the Guineas, Glorious Journey looks more likely to suit the mile to my eyes. His RPR of 108 and Group 3 win are better credentials than some others bring to the table, yet he is largely forgotten about at 50/1. Costing 2.6 Million Guineas, and said by his trainer after the La Rochette to be a 3YO prospect, it will be interesting to see if they see him as forward enough to be trained with the Guineas as a target.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Desperately quiet on the forum this weekend.
Anyway, just to say that it might be worth avoiding Mendelssohn for the 2000 Guineas. He is as low as 12/1 but it seems unlikely he will run, because he is headed for the Kentucky Derby at the moment.
We may see him at Dundalk next week in a race that forms part of the European “Road To The Kentucky Derby” series.
Aiden also has Mendelssohn and a couple of others entered up in another race in the series, Seahenge and Threeandfourpence, at Kempton and stated it could be that Threeandfourpence might be the one to run at Kempton, while the other two go to Dundalk.
I have a feeling Ryan Moore will plump for Saxon Warrior here because he has the group 1 in the bag and Gustav Klimt had a set back. Expert Eye needs to bounce back and I keep getting drawn to Wootton. He is also one of the few who won’t mind soft ground.
Instead of betting today with nothing worthwhile on, I’ll stick a few more quid on Wootton, who will surely be half the current 16/1 if he shows up.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve heard an interesting (positive) rumour about Expert Eye, explaining what happened in the Dewhurst.
Teddy Grimthorpe alluded to it in his recent press release, nwalton – said “a few issues came to light” post-race and they’ve sorted him out now.
Great stuff, this “hot” information from a bookie, isn’t it
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At least it activates my alarm clock, I don’t know how you feel?!Well, quite similar to Jürgen Klopp, I don’t know what “Bol-dog” means.
I hope for you that it’s not an insult!Nearly finished my night shift so just watched the racing post trophy 3 times and I’m struggling to come to a conclusion as to who’s more likely to win the Guineas out of Saxon warrior and roaring lion, roaring lion came flying with his run but veered both ways bumping Saxon warrior. It’s hard to tell whether this bumping caused more harm to roaring lion or Saxon warrior. Looked like roaring lion had it in the bag 1f out, did Saxon warrior idle when getting to the front? Did roaring lion slow down just a touch once hitting the front? Roaring lion would probably have won had he pounced in the final 50 yards rather than challenging a bit earlier like he did so maybe the plan for the Guineas is to pounce as late as possible, or maybe his veering over the track tactic has been trained out of him by now. Saxon warrior seemed to find his top speed in the final 50 yards and seemed to prove the better ‘stayer’ on the day so maybe he is a lot better than the winning margin suggests as he only found top gear in the final 50 yards, or maybe this was just exadurated by roaring lion losing his momentum by hitting the front too early and veering. So in conclusion there is no conclusion. Been at work 13 hours now maybe this isn’t the best time to break down a race.
Yes Ben, I would agree with you that one could flip a coin between those two.
And even there may appear a dark horse, so what my guts say is to better stick to the filly’s version!Bol-dog – bit of a play on your name to sound like ‘bulldog’ since you’re a feisty one. ;)
All very much ‘man in the pub’ stuff as we guess what exactly went wrong with Expert Eye. I thought the Grimthorpe thing was worth flagging up though. You can see his recent Expert Eye press release on the Sporting Life site. Strangely, the Racing Post didn’t deem it worthy of reporting, hence why most here seem to have missed the news.
I think it’s really interesting. Without his Dewhurst run, I think Expert Eye would still be favourite for the Guineas. If Grimthorpe is telling the truth and they did indeed find something physical and fairly minor that stopped him on that day, then the current 10/1 would look chunky.
I think it’s a risk worth taking, especially in such a weak looking year.
I actually think it has the potential to be a strong year, those at the head of the market could all be very very good, they just have question marks over them. Of course the majority of them could be nothing special but they certainly have the potential to be very smart, we just won’t know until the day. Though often we don’t actually know until a year or so down the line. Again in conclusion there is no conclusion
Okay LS, then I’m in the picture.
Feisty is the next unknown one for me, but if you mean aggressive with that, as I googled, you’re not right, as I like to keep love and peace now. Let’s cut it short, I wouldn’t touch Expert Eye with pincers here (as we say in Germany ), so I think Ben’s conclusion is quite right:
This race seems to be a rolling dice..I read that Roaring Lion has been working great at home this winter, but who knows what that even means.
I still have an antepost on Herculean. Anyone has an update on him?
Herculean will have a prep run in a trial to decide whether he is up to running in the Guineas.
I can’t see Herculean in the Guineas to be honest. Roger Charlton is pretty much useless when it comes to the Guineas. He never seems able to get them ready in time and he was living in denial last season regarding Fair Eva, saying that she had grown over the winter, when anyone who had ever looked at a horse could tell she wasn’t a millimetre taller than she was as a 2YO.
Don’t sweat who is better between Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion. The Racing Post Trophy doesn’t often throw up the Guineas winner and you would be concerned that a faster colt will mow them down.
John Gosden amazingly didn’t win the 2000 Guineas with Kingman and it is a race he is yet to land in a generation.
This horse looks to have a rare turn of speed and I think he is probably the colt with the best turn of foot/ability to get a mile ratio in the race.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2984/
Other horses are available but will prove futile.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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), so I think Ben’s conclusion is quite right:
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