Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Hi Ginger
In response to your question, never seen b4 for horse racing but is becoming a common price in the golf markets especially when Bookies shorten one up from 40/1
Good luck with your GN choices. Just added Neptune to my portfolio of Chicago Gray, Cappa Bleu and small bet, for sentiments sake on Vic Venturi. Will also have abet on the day on State of Play to come in top 10 (Market normally only available from night before) probably around the 5/2 to 3/1 mark
yorkiedips
what a great ride that was on Outlam Tom by Campbell Gillies
Very well done to all involved.
Guessing thegood early pace really helped
Also out of sentiment snaffled some of the 13/2 on offer so chuffed myself
yorkiedips
So KF will you lay me 2/1 on a 50% chance, 3/1 on a 33.33% chance, 4/1 on a 25% chance and 5/1 on a 20% chance. If so I’m all in!!!!
As GT would indicate that’s "value" not to be missed!!!!
yorkiedips
Prof
Re Aerial dropped 3lbs from previous run. Thought ran to 150 in Paddy power. Only 6 and had 6 runs in chases so on both counts had some improvement. Went toe to toe with The Giant Bolster in previous race who I thought was extremely well handicapped so could forgive last run. Finally, thought Aerial needed a bit of juice in ground and had looked at weather forecast on Fri eve and saw they expected rain which did masterialise. Know official going good but I feel it was on soft side of good
Hope the above makes sense and indicates my thoughts
yorkiedips
Following on from the above, if this is a handicap why at antepost stage are some bookmakers only going 1/4 1,2,3 when they have more than 16 runners listed?
is the decision re e/w top 3 or 4 at their discretion?
Also interestingly the one I am in dispute with from last year re 4th place, who have just gone nrnb, are offering 1/4 1-4…something I will be highlighting to them!!!!
Yorkiedips
Hi Stew
Thanks for giving an overview of race. Feel slightly better from your desription rather than that indicated on Sportinglife.
Also, can’t complain at all….but like the fishermen…not that I am one…it feels like the one that got away….though I know I should be lookingg at it as the three that I caught!!!!
Yorkiedips
Hi Rob
Thanks for tip off. Read your notes and have been backing CA religously all year…luckily E/W so had small returns most runs!! The way he runs in terms of no pattern around whether "he stays" or "doesn’t stay" long distance trips suggests to me that this could be right up his street…to the extent that I’m about to look at Oddschesker and see who is offering best price nrnb and then back it.
Also I have a sneaking feeling, as per a poster in another thread, that Maljimar will run another good race. Backed it last year and still in an ongoing battle with a certain bookmaker around whether I get paid for it finishing 4th after only 15 ran last year but I had backed in a week before in nrnb ante post market….but that;s another story!!
So to sum up 2 for the race are CA and maljimar but with weights as they are would also fancy GC if Nina on board
Thanks again Rob for highlighting CA possible participation
yorkiedips
Jockey I didnt know much about but saw this article earlier in the week and then noticed she was riding one of TRF sydicate horses in bumper at Southwell on wednesday Red Danger Angel.
Out of sentiment for the forum had a couple of quid each way on it and she gave it a really good ride to come 2nd to a fairly gud un pulling well clear of third.
Impressed with her (As was Grey desire one of syndicate members who has put abrief report on another section about RDA) and will be backing De Boitron at Chelts in Grand Annual (who was already in my notebook after lto 3rd) now that she is confirmed as the jockey. Hoping though to get better than the current 10/1 on day.
Jockey to follow and in terms of RDA I think also a horse to keep an eye on. Another winner waiting to happen imho in either an average bumper or a sharp 2m track novice hurdle.
Oops realised I’ve digressed a bit re LA and Chelts re thoughts around RDA. Hope readers don’t mind
yorkiedips
To some extent theoretically I agree with the senitiment of the title …though wouldn’t use the words total garbabge..perhaps Bookmakers paradise?!?!
However after my best selecting day of the year and perhaps ever (6 horses with 5 winners and a seond) where I got last 3 televised winners from Newbury then tonight I’m buzzing and dead chuffed that the races were handicaps.
However I’m sure mid summer Saturday when there are 6 televised handicaps on C4 from Newmarket and York each with 12 -20 runners and I don’t even get a sniff of a place then if there was an article like this about that then I’d be supporting it as most of the time do find my success rate in Graded races far higher…though interestingly although my RoI is better its not as much better as I would have naturally thought.
Guess that last point links into comments made about prices by Gingertipster.
GT – Thanks as had not looked back on my records that closely until todays successes and reading your comments on this thread
yorkiedips
Hi Stew
Well done with last tip. Nice 11/2 winner.
During week I also had warbond and classic reprieve so we both deserved a change of fortune
However in this instance wish you had continued your 2nd itis and George Guru won. Had a small stakes EW L15 last night with B365 and had had 3 winners with this being the last race with GG…Slatey Hen at 8/1,Marufo 6/1 (BOG) Balgarry 7/1 (Drift throughout day thought it had no chance!!!!)
Haven’t watched race yet and after reading write up can’t bring myself too as reading write up it appears not the best ride on GG. If you did watch what are your thoughts?
Not complaining as Returned £220 but would have been a grand more but for Forceful Appesl. On flip side now have a betting bank twice as big as it was for Chelts which is great
yorkiedips
CS / All
Just to let you know that Askanna currently 50/1 with b365 bog nrnb
Also mid div and creep 33/1 with b365 bog nrnb
Finally Merchant Royal for Foxhunters 16/1 with b365 bog and nrnb
Just placed a small investment on all 3 e/w as om top of the above they are all currently joint best prices with b365 too
yorkiedips
Sketti – sshhh re SLC…Quite a lot written about him in January in certain posts. Also mentioned recently on The Morning Line
I’m Waiting for nrnb and then, like a few others on TRF I think, will be having a significant interest in this horse!!
yorkiedips
Hi Nathan
Thanks for your response. Was hoping you would reply to this.
Yes 10/11 was best price. Intersting comment re B365 and BV as was neither of these bookies was the "culprit"
Reason I posed question was that I also like the double chance bet, often betting on draw or outsider on this. Just wandered if an indivdual or a collectiono of people could manipulate prices with diffent bookies over time through sustained betting on singles, fav with one bookie and double chance with another to create a book that was under 100%.
Hope you and other forumites see where I’m coming from. A recent example of this, whether by accident or design is Leicester v middlesborough on Wednesday. Leicester opened at 7/5 with Bwin on 17.01.12 and now you can bet Borough and draw on double chance market at 3/4 with the same bookie!! 5 pnts at start wins 12 pnts. 7 pnts nown wins 12.25pnts i.e. under 100% book!!!! If you consider best odds principle by shopping around then can shear force of money create markets that "adjust" and force an under 100% book over time?!?!
Comments welcomed by you and all
yorkiedips
WilsonL
Are you sure this was July Cup…as my worst bet ever was same horse same year in the Nunthorpe, though at time of placing my bet wasn’t in my opinion worst ever bet struck…reason why explained later!!!! Can other members confirm if I am right around year or am I mixing 2 events together?
I was 18 years old, just got my A level results that day and picked up my weekly wages for evening job in cash after doing a number of extra shifts (Paid £3.20 an hour!!!!) Had £200 in my pocket (Wages plus a bit more) and had gone to the racecourse into Tatts as I lived in York. Had £100 at 10/11 I think first show and then she (Lochsong)bolted to start. Thought bound to be withdrawn but she wasn’t and as they say the rest is history!!!!
To make things worse, and to link onto another thread, also then had £40 on foxhound in a later race after ringing up a tipping line (TRT) and this also came nowhere. Got back to parents home that night with around £3 of £200 I had left in my pocket….ouch!!!!
yorkiedips
Hi Zarkava
"That is simply not true" could be seen as perhaps a little bit of what I refer to????
Again sorry to other members for digressing off the topic
yorkiedips
GT
Really enjoy your posts and admire your methods.
Just wandered having looked at the tip for tom and then looking that the "book" for this is 125% at the moments, despite 7 of the big bookmakers pricing up beforehand, if you are ever tempted to get into the "laying" game? Surely in a race like this there must also be "value" on this other side of the coin?
Hope you don’t mind posing this question and will be interested in your thoughts
yorkiedips
Zarkava
While I understand where you are coming from re HGM, and some of his comments / responses are highly opiniated and sometimes could be seen to contradict but, I think you are being a bit OTT.
Reading this thread and others I think you could look at yourself around "bullying"…gold cup thread perhaps?
All – Going back to this race I’m with the FPP angle as a place only bet on thew day of the race hoping there are still the "dead eight" as think it’s an even money shot to be placed but even at 14/1 1/5 1,2,3 you are only getting 4/5 for this and just can’t see it winning.
Think I need to get myself a betfair account…so I could then lay off the win aspect at 14/1…. see tonight this is trading a touch below this price
yorkiedips
