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First bet of the new year:
3:40 Warwick
30 points @ 7/1 (WH) Neptune Equester
20 points @ 7/1 (WH) Son Of Sasta
6 points @ 9.5/1 (betfair) Strongbows Legend
4 points @ 14/1 (VC) FortificationValue Is Everything2:50 Kempton
25 points @ 12/1 (FD) Lightning Strike13 points @ 22/1 (C) Rajdhani Express
One more main bet to come.
Value Is Everything2:50 Kempton
25 points @ 12/1 (FD) Lightning Strike13 points @ 22/1 (C) Rajdhani Express
One more main bet to come.
Aahhh!
So much 12/1 available, thought I’d wait and get some 14/1. Little time later he’s down to a best price 10/1.20 points @ 10/1 (VC) Well Regarded
Value Is Everything3:20 Kempton
38 points @ 11/2 (FD) Requin
21 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Schindlers GoldValue Is Everything2:50 Kempton
25 points @ 12/1 (FD) Lightning Strike13 points @ 22/1 (C) Rajdhani Express
One more main bet to come.
Aahhh!
So much 12/1 available, thought I’d wait and get some 14/1. Little time later he’s down to a best price 10/1.20 points @ 10/1 (VC) Well Regarded
8 points @ 15/2 (Boyle) Swincombe Flame
Value Is EverythingAlready Backed:
2:50 Kempton
25 points @ 12/1 (FD) Lightning Strike
13 points @ 22/1 (C) Rajdhani Express
20 points @ 10/1 (VC) Well Regarded
8 points @ 15/2 (Boyle) Swincombe FlameNow:
2 points @ 39/1 (betfair) DrumshamboValue Is EverythingDisappointed Pricewise tipped Wishful Thinking as it forced my hand.
For me, Wishful Thinking will prove capable at a strongly run 2 miles and IF coming back to his novice form can win this even if not improving on it. The "IF" means he’s not certain to do so, but the price means it’s worth taking the chance. It will need a much better performance than he’s shown so far this season. Went too quickly at Sandown for it to mean much and held up off a slow pace last time at Kempton didn’t suit. Heard some breathing questions which are a worry, but stable now in much better form now.
Both Finians Rainbow and Wishful Thinking below form there. Though they also made bad mistakes at the same fence. Oiseau Du Nuit vastly flattered in being so close. Finians Rainbow deserves to be favourite here, but around 15/8 looks too short at this stage. Owner has put him in the Ryanair and Gold Cup and apparently changed in demeanor since last year. Much more settled. That could be a good thing, but also there’s a chance he won’t show the same ability.Somersby has the ability to figure, but probably not the speed or enthusiasm. Forpaddytheplasterer is a bit the same, particularly in the enthusiasm department. Not a bad place only bet though if anywhere near each way odds are available for place only bets.
Al Ferof is a really good novice who jumps well. Will need to improve win this and plenty short enough at 11/4.
I’msolucky isn’t good enough.
Gauvain is interesting for in form trainer Nick Williams. But what did he achieve at Huntingdon? Somersby sour and Gauvain under pressure some way out in a 2m4f race.
Value Is EverythingGT
Really enjoy your posts and admire your methods.
Just wandered having looked at the tip for tom and then looking that the "book" for this is 125% at the moments, despite 7 of the big bookmakers pricing up beforehand, if you are ever tempted to get into the "laying" game? Surely in a race like this there must also be "value" on this other side of the coin?
Hope you don’t mind posing this question and will be interested in your thoughts
yorkiedips
GT
Really enjoy your posts and admire your methods.
Just wandered having looked at the tip for tom and then looking that the "book" for this is 125% at the moments, despite 7 of the big bookmakers pricing up beforehand, if you are ever tempted to get into the "laying" game? Surely in a race like this there must also be "value" on this other side of the coin?
Hope you don’t mind posing this question and will be interested in your thoughts
yorkiedips
Ask anything you like Yorkie. Although not sure who you mean by my "tip for Tom"?
In general am not keen on laying horses. Admittedly haven’t had many lay bets, so it could be a coincidence… But it seems there’s often someone somewhere who knows the horse has improved at home.
Obviously when laying a horse a punter is effectively backing every other horse in the race. Where as I prefer to be for up to six horses to different degrees and be against the rest. Although there are times I look back and see it would have been better value to lay one horse. Suppose it’s something that I’ve just not got in to.
Value Is Everything2:35 Newbury
25 points @ 6/1 (VC) Ikorodu Road24 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Marufo
Value Is Everything2:05 Newbury
42 points @ 4.8/1 (betfair) Claret Cloak
24 points @ 7/4 (b365) Carrigmorna KingValue Is Everything2:35 Newbury
25 points @ 6/1 (VC) Ikorodu Road24 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Marufo
10 points @ 6/1 (VC) Glen’s Boy
6 points @ 10/1 (VC) KaybeewValue Is Everything
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