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2:05 Ascot
64 points @ 7/4 (L) Kentford Grey Lady10 points @ 7/1 (SJ) Kaffie
Value Is Everything2:35 Ascot
25 points @ 7/1 (boyle) A Bridge Too Far
18 points @ 14/1 (VC) PateeseValue Is Everything2:35 Ascot
25 points @ 7/1 (boyle) A Bridge Too Far
18 points @ 14/1 (VC) Pateese8 points @ 6/1 (VC) Ciceron
Value Is EverythingDdavid Nicholson Mares Hurdle
13 points each way @ 16/1 (VC) Kentford Grey LadyValue Is EverythingVictor Chandler Chase
24 points @ 13/2 (L) Wishful Thinking5 points @ 13/2 (L) Wishful Thinking
15 points @ 9/1 (VC) GauvainHalf a saver:
9 points @ 5/2 (VC) Finians RainbowValue Is EverythingVictor Chandler Chase
24 points @ 13/2 (L) Wishful Thinking5 points @ 13/2 (L) Wishful Thinking
15 points @ 9/1 (VC) GauvainHalf a saver:
9 points @ 5/2 (VC) Finians RainbowCan’t resist another:
7 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Wishful Thinking
Value Is EverythingWorld Hurdle
10 points each way @ 16/1 (T/FD) DynasteBetting without Big Buck’s
7 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) DynasteValue Is EverythingYou have a rather sordid attachment to this horse ginger I must say! A question Ginger I have for you given your future plans for full time punting. Have you considered the longevity of your betting patterns? If successful then use of online accounts will become restricted or stopped and overnight turnover on betfair is not strong enough for a turnover required to make a living from betting. If this was the case what do you plan to do to ensure you can get on regularly?
This is by no means a dig at you, I wish you the best of fortunes in your future endeavour and hope it goes well for you.
You have a rather sordid attachment to this horse ginger I must say! A question Ginger I have for you given your future plans for full time punting. Have you considered the longevity of your betting patterns? If successful then use of online accounts will become restricted or stopped and overnight turnover on betfair is not strong enough for a turnover required to make a living from betting. If this was the case what do you plan to do to ensure you can get on regularly?
This is by no means a dig at you, I wish you the best of fortunes in your future endeavour and hope it goes well for you.
I know exactly what you mean tb, it has gone through my mind. The fact my record is better with bookmakers than exchanges could be a problem later on. As I’ve said, one or two bookies have already started limiting bets. I’ll just have to manage things when the time comes. May be go to bed and get up earlier for better betfair prices.
I am a fan of Dynaste.
When a punter believes a horse is under-rated by bookmakers and punters alike then it remains over-priced. Ascot run far better than distances indicate. Acceleration shown at Haydock still in the memory and even looked to have BB in trouble at one point. Had he not gone for home far too early would’ve been a good second. Ignore that run and Dynaste should be second favourite or at least joint second fav. Hopefully Tom Scu will be a better judge of pace. Might even go in again in the "betting without" market. Obviously not expecting him to beat Big Bucks.Value Is Everything2:05 Cheltenham
Probably won’t have much time in the morning, and don’t want to take the prices currently available (probably be even better in the morning). So will just say:23 points @ (best price in Pricewise box) Araldur
45 points @ (best price in Pricewise box) AerialValue Is Everything3:40 Cheltenham
19 points each way @ 10/1 (B365) DynasteBetting Without Big Buck’s
28 points @ 9/4 (b365) DynasteValue Is EverythingExcellent thread Mark, really enjoying following!!
Just a quick question….
Surely tomorrow Big Bucks is about as near a racing certainty as you can get? You even say yourself you’re not expecting Dynaste to beat BB…..Why then would you back Dynaste EW, surely you are practically throwing 19pts of that bet away, as he surely can’t win?
Excellent thread Mark, really enjoying following!!
Just a quick question….
Surely tomorrow Big Bucks is about as near a racing certainty as you can get? You even say yourself you’re not expecting Dynaste to beat BB…..Why then would you back Dynaste EW, surely you are practically throwing 19pts of that bet away, as he surely can’t win?
Cheers Zam,
Please forgive me once again mentioning percentages in my mumblings Zam, it’s impossible to explain without doing so.
It may seem strange backing against Big Buck’s when he has such a massive chance , I’d say around 75% to 77%. But at 14 he needs to have better than 80% chance to be worth a bet. Betting against one horse with a 77% chance of winning, is exactly the same as backing against the combined chance of say 7 horses whose combined chance I believe add up to 77% where I can see value in another price.
Dynaste has (I believe) been under-estimated in the betting. I have him as a 12.5% and only need better than 9% strike rate at 10/1 to be a good bet. Ascot showed he had pace in abundence and looked to have Big Buck’s in trouble at one point. O’Farrell could not claim and went for home far too soon, making it a test of stamina. Am a bit worried having heard Tom Scu say it will be a truly run race, because in my opinion he’d have a better chance trying to outsprint Big Buck’s and possibly challenging wide of him. BB has been known to idle out on his own (although been better in that respect recently). Restless Harry might spoil things by setting a stiff pace, but that’s a chance I’ll have to take.
Having said that, unusually, looking at the "betting without" market, punters could take best prices about
every
horse in the race and still make a
profit
!
Did take a bit of 3.6 on betfair yesterday evening to be placed. But there wasn’t much available and once I’d taken it the best price was then 3.0. So could not put it up on this thread.
I prefur to split my stake partly each way and part betting without / place only, so I still have a chance of a 10/1 win. I’m greedy.
Value Is Everything
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